Energy, Sustainable Development and Integrated
Assessment Models
October 10, 2011
Jan Steckel
with
Robert J. Brecha, Jessica Strefler, and Gunnar Luderer
Outline
• Introduction
• Energy and Development in the past
• Models, energy and development
• The role of infrastructure
• Discussion and Conclusion
Jan Steckel, ENTDEKEN workshop Hamburg, October 10, 2011
2
Introduction
Global
NA-I countries
Luderer et al. 2011
• Looking at IAMs, economic development is not greatly
affected when measured in GDP or reduced consumption
• BUT: Can we trust these results with respect to sustainable
development?
• (Sustainable) development is more than consumption
• IAMs were not developed to tackle questions of SD
• …
Jan Steckel, ENTDEKEN workshop Hamburg, October 10, 2011
3
Energy and development in the past
Very high
High
Intermediate
Low
Threshold?
Jan Steckel, ENTDEKEN workshop Hamburg, October 10, 2011
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Literature results
• Thresholds for per capita FE are found in the literature:
• Krugman and Goldemberg (1983): 45 GJ/year (Africa, LAM, Asia)
for “acceptable levels”, bottom up
• Goldemberg et al. (1985): 31 GJ/year for the future, taking
efficiency improvements into account
• Giannini Pereira, Vasconcelos Freitas, and da Silva (2011): 10
GJ/year for rural households to escape absolute poverty
• Question of causality:
• Inconclusive results in the literature
• Majority of studies (e.g. Asafu-Adjaye 2000, Wolde-Rufael 2005,
Chien-Chiang Lee und Chang 2008) imply a causality from energy
to economic development for low levels of development
Jan Steckel, ENTDEKEN workshop Hamburg, October 10, 2011
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Model results
RECIPE ADAM
Models and Scenarios used in the analysis
Baseline Cat 3+4
ReMIND-R
3
6
MERGE-ETL 4
7
POLES
4
5
TIMER
1
1
ReMIND-R
1
11
IMACLIM
1
6
WITCH
1
4
15
40
Jan Steckel, ENTDEKEN workshop Hamburg, October 10, 2011
Cat 1+2
6
7
6
1
1
1
0
22
6
Cat 3+4
2030
Baseline
2050
Baseline
2030
140
Jan Steckel, ENTDEKEN workshop Hamburg, October 10, 2011
Cat 1+2
2050
80
Cat 1+2
2050
Cat 1+2
2030
Cat 3+4
2050
Cat 3+4
2030
Baseline
2050
Baseline
2030
FE per capita [GJ]
30
Cat 1+2
2030
100
Cat 3+4
2050
120
Cat 3+4
2030
140
Baseline
2050
Annex I
100
FE per capita [GJ]
Cat 1+2
2050
Cat 1+2
2030
Non Annex I
Baseline
2030
Cat 1+2
2050
160
Cat 1+2
2030
Cat 3+4
2050
Cat 3+4
2030
Baseline
2050
Baseline
2030
FE per capita [GJ]
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
Cat 3+4
2050
FE per capita [GJ]
Model results
India
25
20
15
Europe
120
80
7
Energy and development patterns in ReMIND
GDP per capita [$]
BAU
$50
$30
$10
Final Energy per capita [GJ]
Jan Steckel, ENTDEKEN workshop Hamburg, October 10, 2011
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ReMIND results in perspective
World
USA
Baseline
$10 initial tax
$30 initial tax
$50 initial tax
NA-1
AN-1
CHN
IND
ADAM and RECIPE scenarios
Jan Steckel, ENTDEKEN workshop Hamburg, October 10, 2011
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Wrap up of results
• In developing countries, final energy levels decrease
significantly in mitigation scenarios with respect to baseline
scenarios
• Historic patterns of energy consumption and development
seem to break
• Final energy levels might not cross a level that can be
considered a threshold for “development”
• Questions
•
•
•
•
Are results consistent with “energy threshold theory”?
Efficiency improvements? Realistic?
How would these societies look?
What about infrastructure?
Jan Steckel, ENTDEKEN workshop Hamburg, October 10, 2011
10
Infrastructure
[kg CO2]
[kg]
production
steel production
capitacement
Per
Percapita
•
•
Goal: Estimating the energy needed for infrastructure (i.e. steel and cement) in the
future
OLS linear regression with capital investements and population being explanatory
variables for 11 (ReMIND) regions


ln E regi t   0regi  1regi ln INV t    2regi ln POP t    (t )
EU27
USA
Latin America
India
Jan Steckel, ENTDEKEN workshop Hamburg, October 10, 2011
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1970-2050
Steel production [kg steel/cap]
Cement production [t cement/cap]
Infrastructure – Cement and Steel production
1970-2050
- Econometric model seems to give reasonable results for the future
- Can be used to calculate future energy demand:
Steel: 18 GJ/t – 2.5 GJ/t; Cement 5 GJ/t – 1.8 GJ/t
Jan Steckel, ENTDEKEN workshop Hamburg, October 10, 2011
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Energy demand in the future
FE per capita [GJ]
35
100
25
40
200
30
150
20
100
10
50
60
15
20
5
25
100
15
60
5
20
LatinUSA
America
EU 27
Other
Asia
Japan
India
70
25
Without massive efficiency
improvements future
energy demand for
infrastructure will stabilize
between 5 and 20 GJ/cap
across regions
China
Africa
50
15
30
105
Jan Steckel, ENTDEKEN workshop Hamburg, October 10, 2011
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Discussion and Conclusion
• (Some) Models implicitly assume
• massive energy efficiency improvements, e.g. in the provision of infrastructure
or even substitutions of particular energy intensive inputs
or/and
• Developing countries will be societies that grow without producing energy
intensive capital (no industry, no infrastructure)
• Do not consider the importance of energy supply for low income
countries in growth processes
• Developing countries unlikely to totally decouple from energy use in the
future
• Growth-Energy assumptions in (some) IAMs questionable
• Results – particularly for developing countries - might change if:
• Regional distinctions for developing countries
• Energy needs in development processes
… were included
Jan Steckel, ENTDEKEN workshop Hamburg, October 10, 2011
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Thank you for your attention!
[email protected]
Literature
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Asafu-Adjaye, John. 2000. The relationship between energy consumption, energy prices and economic
growth: time series evidence from Asian developing countries. Energy Economics 22, no. 6: 615-625.
Chontanawat, Jaruwan, Lester C. Hunt, und Richard Pierse. Does energy consumption cause economic
growth?: Evidence from a systematic study of over 100 countries. Journal of Policy Modeling 30, no. 2 (März):
209-220. doi:doi: DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2006.10.003.
Giannini Pereira, Marcio, Marcos Aurélio Vasconcelos Freitas, und Neilton Fidelis da Silva. 2011. The
challenge of energy poverty: Brazilian case study. Energy Policy 39, no. 1: 167-175.
Goldemberg, T.B. Johansson, A.K.N. Reddy, und R Williams. 1985. Basic Needs and Much More with One
Kilowatt per Capita. Ambio.
Jakob, M., Luderer, G., Steckel, J., Tavoni, M., Stephanie Monjon (2011): Time to act now? Assessing the costs
of delaying climate measures and benefits of early action. Climatic Change, accepted for publication
Krugman, H., und J Goldemberg. 1983. The Energy Cost of Satisfying Basic Human Needs. Technological
Forecasting and Social Change.
Lee, Chien-Chiang, und Chun-Ping Chang. 2008. Energy consumption and economic growth in Asian
economies: A more comprehensive analysis using panel data. Resource and Energy Economics 30, no. 1: 5065.
Luderer, G., V. Bosetti, M. Jakob, M. Leimbach, J. Steckel, H. Waisman, O. Edenhofer (2011): On the
economics of decarbonization: Results and insights from the RECIPE model intercomparison. Climatic
Change, accepted for publication
Masih, Abul M.M., und Rumi Masih. 1996. Energy consumption, real income and temporal causality: results
from a multi-country study based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques. Energy
Economics 18, no. 3: 165-183.
Oh, Wankeun, und Kihoon Lee. 2004. Energy consumption and economic growth in Korea: testing the
causality relation. Journal of Policy Modeling 26, no. 8-9: 973-981.
Wolde-Rufael, Yemane. 2005. Energy demand and economic growth: The African experience. Journal of
Policy Modeling 27, no. 8: 891-903.
Jan Steckel, ENTDEKEN workshop Hamburg, October 10, 2011
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Backup slides
The ReMIND model
Production
structure
Overall structure
•Fully coupled macro- economy and
energy system
•Intertemporal optimization of
regional welfare
•Intertemporal equilibrium of capital,
energy and goods markets (Pareto
optimum)
•11 world regions, heterogeneous
capital stocks in energy sector,
international trade
•Regionally specific fossil fuel
endowments and renewable energy
potentials
Jan Steckel, ENTDEKEN workshop Hamburg, October 10, 2011
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Infrastructure
• Goal: Estimating the energy needed for infrastructure (i.e. steel and cement)
in the future
• OLS linear regression with capital investements and population being
explanatory variables for 11 (ReMIND) regions


ln E regi t   0regi  1regi ln INV t    2regi ln POP t    (t )
Jan Steckel, ENTDEKEN workshop Hamburg, October 10, 2011
19
Cement
Jan Steckel, ENTDEKEN workshop Hamburg, October 10, 2011
20
Steel
Jan Steckel, ENTDEKEN workshop Hamburg, October 10, 2011
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