Summary of Progress with POAMA/ACCESS
Seasonal Prediction System
POAMA/ACCESS - Seasonal Prediction System
POAMA-1.5
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Hind-casts
Operational
Products & docs
Applications
System
Re-analyses
Hind-casts
Operational
Products and doc
POAMA-3
Applications
System Development
Re-analyses
Hind-casts
Operational
Products & Doc
Applications
Major improvements
POAMA-1.5
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•
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•
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New ACCESS atmosphere/land initialisation (ALI) system
Comprehensive hind-cast set (1980-2006, 10 member ensemble each month) - 3
members done
Rainfall forecasts (direct + statistical downscaling)
Intra-seasonal (weekly) forecasts
OpenDAP external data server (sample - last 3 years available)
POAMA-2
•
•
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New ACCESS Ocean assimilation system (PEODAS)
New ACCESS ensemble generation strategy
Increased atmospheric resolution (T95 - optional)
POAMA-3
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•
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New ACCESS coupled model (UKMO UM, AusCOM, ..)
Higher resolution (ocean, atmosphere)
Greenhouse gases
New ACCESS coupled assimilation system
Results
POAMA-1.5B
So far 3 out of 10 member ensemble each month from 1980-2005
Real-time forecasts in next 2 months
(Some results from preliminary version 1.5A, with no ALI)
Summary of work of many from BMRC
NINO 3
SSTA forecasts
P15b
P15a
P1
Persistence
P15b
P15a
P1
Persistence
Produced by Guomin Wang
P15b
P15a
P1
Persistence
Indian Ocean
Dipole Model Index
Produced by Guomin Wang
POAMA15B
1982-2005
3 members mean
Skill at lead=5
Dashed: persistence
Produced by Guomin Wang
SST Anomaly Correlation
POAMA-1
POAMA-1.5
1 month
3 month
5 month
Produced by Guomin Wang
Rainfall Forecasts (POAMA-1.5A)
MAM LT 0
MAM forecasts
0.6
0.5
Winner POAMA
0.4
Corr. Coeff.
0.3
Loser
POAMA
0.2
EOF
0.1
SVD
SVD
POAMA NINO4
0
MAM LT 3
SVD-calib
-0.1
STAT
-0.2
0.6
-0.3
0.5
-0.4
0.4
-0.5
SEACI
QLD
0.3
NSW
POAMA
Corr. Coeff.
AVG
0.2
EOF
0.1
SVD
POAMA NINO4
0
-0.1
AVG
SEACI
QLD
NSW
SVD-calib
STAT
-0.2
Produced by Eun-Pa Lim and Harry Hendon
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
Rainfall Forecasts (POAMA-1.5A)
SON Forecasts
SON LT 0
Winner Bridging (EOF/NINO4)
0.6
0.5
Loser SVD-calib
0.4
POAMA
0.2
MLR
0.1
SVD
SON LT 3
POAMA NINO4
0
SVD-calib
-0.1
0.6
STAT
-0.2
0.5
-0.3
0.4
-0.4
0.3
-0.5
0.2
MLR
0.1
SVD
AVG
SEACI
QLD
NSW
Corr. Coeff.
Corr. Coeff.
0.3
POAMA
POAMA NINO4
0
SVD-calib
-0.1
STAT
-0.2
-0.3
Produced by Eun-Pa Lim and Harry Hendon
-0.4
-0.5
AVG
SEACI
QLD
NSW
1997 vs 2002 SST forecasts
1997
OBS
2002
SST anomaly predicted
by POAMA 1.5a at LT3
1997
2002
Produced by Eun-Pa Lim and Harry Hendon
1997 vs 2002 Rainfall forecasts
Obs
1997
2002
Forecast Lead 3
Produced by Eun-Pa Lim and Harry Hendon
Intra-Seasonal Forecasts
Initialised with true state of ocean, land and atmosphere
Stored daily data
Can start looking at weekly time scales
Gap between NWP and Seasonal prediction
Skill over Australia as a function of lead time (days): precipitation
(by Debbie Hudson)
(1980-2001)
0.5
KEY: persistence p15a p15b
Wheeler MJO Phase Diagram
•Forecasts starting 1st March 1997
•50 day forecasts
•Light Blue - obs
•Other colours - ensembles
•Produced by Harun Rashid
Summary
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Significant improvement in SST skill levels
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Rainfall competitive with statistical forecasts ?
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Range of new products
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Seasonal and Weekly forecast
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Comprehensive hind-cast set available soon
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Available externally - openDAP server
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Exiting year ahead !!