ICES Journal of Marine Science, 58: 1184–1194. 2001 doi:10.1006/jmsc.2001.1106, available online at http://www.idealibrary.com on Patchy distribution fields: sampling distance unit and reconstruction adequacy I. Kalikhman Kalikhman, I. 2001. Patchy distribution fields: sampling distance unit and reconstruction adequacy. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 58: 1184–1194. A mathematical model (Kriging) was used to examine the effects of choosing various units of sampling distance on the adequacy of reconstructing patchy distribution fields. The model simulates fish or plankton patches (or gaps) of different shapes and spatial orientations, and an acoustic survey by parallel transects along which a unit of sampling distance is set. Conformity of the reconstructed fields to those originally generated was evaluated by calculating their correlations. If a priori information on patch orientation is available, the optimal ratios of the distance between transects and the sampling distance unit to the corresponding autocorrelation radius for the field have been determined, ensuring the required match between the reconstructed field and its original. The experiments with a certain unit of sampling distance confirm that a posteriori determination of patch orientation allows reconstruction of the best field attainable on the basis of the data from the survey conducted. In cases of field movement, the criterion for choosing a survey direction is based on the relationship between the dimension of moving patches in the direction of movement and that of the surveyed area; the criterion remains valid when a unit of sampling distance is set along transects. 2001 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea Keywords: acoustic survey design, distance between transects, sampling distance unit, patchy distribution field, anisotropy, autocorrelation radius, reconstruction, conformity, coefficient of determination. Received 30 July 2000; accepted 1 June 2001; published electronically 22 August 2001. I. Kalikhman: Yigal Allon Kinneret Limnological Laboratory, Israel Oceanographic & Limnological Research Ltd, Tel-Shikmona, PO Box 8030, Haifa 31080, Israel; tel.: 972 4 851 5202; fax: 972 4 851 1911; e-mail: [email protected] Introduction One major goal of any acoustic survey is to reconstruct the distribution field studied. In this case, the survey design is considered optimal if it ensures the required conformity of a reconstructed field to the actual one with minimal expenditures (Thompson, 1992). It is assumed that the size and structure of the actual distribution field under natural conditions should be known. However, in a real situation, the parameters of distribution fields are never known. Therefore, the mathematical simulation method was used to optimize survey design and improve the algorithm of data analysis; fish and plankton locations in Lake Kinneret were used as prototypes in simulating distribution fields (Kalikhman & Ostrovsky, 1997). The major aspects of the acoustic survey design are the distance between transects and the unit of sampling distance. The latter is the length of a survey transect 1054–3139/01/061184+11 $35.00/0 along which the acoustic measurements are averaged to receive one sample. The sampling distance unit may be as short as 0.1 mile to distinguish dense schools, or as long as ten miles in the case of species widely distributed over large areas of the ocean; usually, the unit of sampling distance may be within the range one to five miles (MacLennan & Simmonds, 1992). However, with the beginning of the use of acoustic surveys for ecological purposes (e.g. Rose & Leggett, 1990), a more preferable rationale for selecting the sampling distance unit is required. Therefore, the mathematical simulation method was used again. The difference between the present mathematical model and that described in the above mentioned study by Kalikhman & Ostrovsky (1997) consists of the fact that the unit of sampling distance is set along transects. Since the distribution of fish and plankton is usually patchy (Steele, 1976), the sampling distance unit should be chosen on the basis of statistical characteristics of a 2001 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea Patchy distribution fields patchy distribution field. The main objective of the present study is to determine criteria for choosing the unit of sampling distance allowing one to obtain a realistic image of an actual patchy field. A further objective consists of comparing these criteria with those for choosing the distance between transects. For that reason, regarding patchy distribution fields, surveys were simulated exactly on the same fields as those studied in Kalikhman & Ostrovsky (1997); the fields consisting of gaps were added to test the applicability of the algorithm to this kind of distribution (e.g. Greene et al., 1994; Genin et al., 1994).1 Mathematical model design The mathematical model is based on the approach described by Kizner et al. (1983) and Zaripov et al. (1983). The surveyed area is a rectangular array of numbers making up a square matrix of 50 lines and 50 columns. Each of these 2500 numbers represents the value of a field in an elementary area (node). To simulate a distribution field, patches (or gaps) are generated and placed into the surveyed area. In the outside patches the field variable is zero, while outside gaps it is the constant background. Inside a patch (gap) the variable increases (decreases) from the outer border towards the centre according to a law obtained by analyzing data from real acoustic microsurveys (Williamson, 1980). Patches (gaps) may be circular (isotropic or non-directional) or elliptical (anisotropic or directional) with different sizes and spatial orientation; separate or overlapping (partially or fully), forming larger patches (gaps) with more complicated shapes. Patches (gaps) are either immovable (static) or movable (dynamic); moving patches (gaps) have a realistic shape of a comet (Yudanov, 1971). Random fluctuations can be superimposed on the simulated patchy field. A resulting (constructed) patchy distribution field is then sampled by simulation of an acoustic survey. We distinguish the survey path and the general direction of the survey. Transects are disposed perpendicularly to the general survey direction. Thus, the entire path of the survey consists of parallel transects and connecting tracks perpendicular to transects. The distances between parallel transects are regular and equal to the length of connecting tracks (D). As mentioned above, a unit of sampling distance (d) is set along transects. This is the length of a transect along which the values of a signal power are integrated and averaged. The field values sampled along transects over each sampling distance are assumed to be measured without error and are used to 1 Gaps are a special case of patchiness, corresponding to areas (or volumes) of habitable space in which organisms are noticeably reduced in abundance relative to background levels (Greene et al., 1994). 1185 reconstruct the field. The reconstructed field again consists of the full set of nodes of the array representing the surveyed area. The corresponding values of the reconstructed field and that originally generated are then compared for all the nodes. Their conformity is evaluated by the coefficient of determination which represents the square of the standard Pearson correlation coefficient (r) (Croxton et al., 1968). The autocorrelation radius (R) is used as a parameter of a field in choosing the distance between transects of a survey (Gandin, 1965). When the axes are located horizontally (or vertically), the autocorrelation radius is determined from a plot of the autocorrelation function as the distance from the coordinate centre to the point where the lag is zero. This distance is equal to the lag unit multiplied by the lag. When rotating the axes to a certain angle, each lag unit increases. If the angle is such that the axis does not cross at least three points, the angle is replaced by another one, close to the initial one, where the axis crosses the required amount of points. An important property of the autocorrelation function consists of the fact that it is sensitive only to variable deviations while constant levels have no effect (Stull, 1988). This enables us to use the autocorrelation function when seeking the autocorrelation radii of distribution fields that include gaps. We suggest using the same characteristics of the field for choosing the unit of sampling distance. Throughout the paper, R, D, and d are given in proportion to the size of the square representing a surveyed area. Mathematical experiments Further on, the reconstruction of the distribution fields will be taken into consideration. The gridding methods use weighted interpolation algorithms. The Kriging method widely used in reconstruction of the distribution fields was tested. It is assumed that this algorithm has an underlying variogram. The search option controls the remoteness of points in which gridding operations have no effect (Cressie, 1991). Static fields The gridding method is chosen to enable the maximal correlation between the reconstructed field and that originally generated to attain. Preliminary experiments indicate that in most cases, the maximal correlation is attained when using Kriging with the linear variogram model. In all experiments, this method is used to exclude the effect of the gridding methods on relationships of interest. If an original field is anisotropic, the correlation between the reconstructed field and the originally generated one depends upon the orientation of the ellipse for 1186 I. Kalikhman the data weighting and search. Preliminary results of experiments indicate that the maximal correlation is attained if, in reconstructing the field, the major axis of this ellipse is adjusted to the direction of patch elongation. When designing a real survey, a priori information on patch orientation may or may not be available. Use of a priori information on patch orientation and autocorrelation radii for the field. In carrying out this series of simulation experiments, it was assumed that a priori information was available either on the field isotropy, or on the anisotropic patch orientation (in surveying fields along shelf edge or in frontal zones it is often observed that patches are extended along the edge or front and not in any other direction). Thus, in reconstructing the fields, the major axis of the ellipse for the data weighting and search was adjusted to the direction of the patch elongation. The adequacy of field reconstruction depends on two factors. The first factor is the ratio of the distance between transects to the autocorrelation radius for the field in the direction of the survey (D/Rs). According to the results presented in the study by Kalikhman & Ostrovsky (1997) and used throughout this section, a patchy field can be reconstructed properly (r2 >0.70) if the ratio of the distance between transects to the autocorrelation radius in the survey direction is D/Rs <1.0–1.5 (later on, the values (r2)t =0.70 and (D/R)t =1.5 will be named as the threshold ones). If this condition is met, the adequacy of reconstruction may depend on the second factor: the ratio of the sampling distance unit to the autocorrelation radius for the field in the direction perpendicular to the survey direction (d/Rp). Let us consider this partial dependence under the following conditions: for each of the 12 distribution fields, 12 replicated simulations with various units of sampling distance are conducted (the minimal distance is d=1/50, then d=1/16, d=1/12, d=1/11 and so on up to d=1/3); the total number of mathematical experiments in this series is 144. For each simulated isotropic field (Figure 1, first panel), the autocorrelation radius is equal to R=0.15 (left), R=0.09 (middle), or R=0.16 (right). For these fields, the condition of adequate reconstruction is met if the distance between transects does not exceed the following threshold value: Dt =0.23 (left), Dt =0.14 (middle), or Dt =0.24 (right). The simulations conducted indicate that the survey with the distance between transects close to the threshold (second panel: D=0.22, left; D=0.14, middle; D=0.24, right) results in the coefficient of determination being higher than the threshold value (r2 =0.83, left; r2 =0.77, middle; r2 =0.85, right). In the case of the left field, the increase of the unit of sampling distance from d=1/50 to d=1/7 results in lowering the coefficient of determination from r2 =0.83 (second panel) to r2 =0.74 (third panel). For the middle field, the increase of the unit of sampling distance from d=1/50 to d=1/12 results in lowering the coefficient of determination from r2 =0.77 (second panel) to r2 =0.74 (third panel). For the right field, the increase of the unit of sampling distance from d=1/50 to d=1/7 results in lowering the coefficient of determination from r2 =0.85 (second panel) to r2 =0.81 (third panel). Thus, the experiments conducted confirm the fact that in cases of isotropic fields, with a constant ratio of the distance between transects to the autocorrelation radius in the survey direction (D/Rs), the adequacy of reconstruction of a field depends on the ratio of the sampling distance unit to the autocorrelation radius in the direction perpendicular to the survey direction (d/Rp). In the case of the left field, the surveys carried out at D=0.22 and d=1/7 in the two perpendicular directions give similar results of r2 =0.74 (third panel) and r2 =0.69 (fourth panel); for the middle field, the surveys carried out at D=0.14 and d=1/12 in the two perpendicular directions give similar results of r2 =0.74 (third panel) and r2 =0.71 (fourth panel); for the right field, the surveys carried out at D=0.24 and d=1/7 in the two perpendicular directions also give similar results of r2 =0.81 (third panel) and r2 =0.74 (fourth panel). Thus, for an isotropic field and a given distance between transects and sampling distance unit, the adequacy of reconstruction of a distribution field is independent of the direction of the survey performed. For each simulated anisotropic field (Figure 2, first panel), the autocorrelation radii in directions of abscissa and ordinate axes are equal to Rx =0.27 and Ry =0.13 (left), Rx =0.06 and Ry =0.23 (middle), or Rx =0.13 and Ry =0.28 (right). Optimal direction for the survey of the left field is the abscissa, while for the middle and right ones it is the ordinate (Kalikhman & Ostrovsky, 1997); the condition of adequate reconstruction is met if the distance between transects does not exceed the following threshold value: Dt =0.41 (left), Dt =0.35 (middle), or Dt =0.42 (right). The simulations conducted indicate that the survey with the distance between transects close to the threshold (second panel: D=0.40, left; D=0.32, middle; D=0.40, right) results in the coefficient of determination being higher than the threshold value (r2 =0.92, left; r2 =0.83, middle; r2 =0.90, right). In the case of the left field, the increase of the unit of sampling distance from d=1/50 to d=1/8 results in lowering the coefficient of determination from r2 =0.92 (second panel) to r2 =0.86 (third panel). For the middle field, the increase of the unit of sampling distance from d=1/50 to d=1/8 results in lowering the coefficient of determination from r2 =0.83 (second panel) to r2 =0.66 (third panel). For the right field, the increase of the unit of sampling distance from d=1/50 to d=1/6 results in lowering the coefficient of determination from r2 =0.90 Figure 1. First panel: simulated patchy isotropic fields. Second to fourth panels: paths of simulated surveys and the reconstructed fields (third and fourth panels show the unit of sampling distance set along the transects; the surveys shown in these panels are directed perpendicularly to each other). Right column represents the gaps. Figure 2. First panel: simulated patchy isotropic fields. Second to fourth panels: paths of simulated surveys conducted in the directions of the major or minor axes of autocorrelation ellipses, and distribution fields as reconstructed using a priori information on patch orientation (third and fourth panels show the unit of sampling distance set along the transects). Right column represents the gaps. Patchy distribution fields (second panel) to r2 =0.86 (third panel). Thus, the mathematical experiments confirm that in the case of anisotropic fields, similar to that of isotropic ones, with a constant ratio of the distance between transects to the autocorrelation radius in the survey direction (D/Rs), the adequacy of field reconstruction depends on the ratio of the sampling distance unit to the autocorrelation radius in the direction perpendicular to the survey direction (d/Rp). In the case of the left field, a survey carried out at D=0.40 and d=1/8 in the direction of patch elongation gives almost the same results in terms of original field adequacy (r2 =0.86, third panel) as a survey at D=0.12 and d=1/4 conducted in a perpendicular direction (r2 =0.90, fourth panel). For the middle field, a survey carried out at D=0.32 and d=1/8 in the direction of patch elongation permits us to reconstruct the original field with almost the same adequacy (r2 =0.66, third panel) as a survey conducted at D=0.10 and d=1/3 in a perpendicular direction (r2 =0.69, fourth panel). Finally, for the right field, a survey carried out at D=0.40 and d=1/6 in the direction of patch elongation gives even better results (r2 =0.86, third panel) than a survey conducted at D=0.14 and d=1/3 in a perpendicular direction (r2 =0.81, fourth panel). Thus, the surveys in the direction of patch elongation with a larger distance between transects and smaller unit of sampling distance permit us to reconstruct the original field with about the same adequacy as those in a perpendicular direction with a smaller distance between transects and a larger unit of sampling distance. For each simulated rotated anisotropic fields (an example of rotation for 30 is given in Figure 3, first panel), the autocorrelation radii in directions of abscissa and ordinate axes are equal to Rx =0.25 and Ry =0.18 (left), Rx =0.11 and Ry =0.20 (middle), or Rx =0.18 and Ry =0.27 (right). The condition of adequate reconstruction is met if the distance between transects do not exceed the following threshold value: Dt =0.40 (left), Dt =0.30 (middle), or Dt =41 (right). The simulations conducted indicate that the survey with the distance between transects close to the threshold (second panel: D=0.40, left; D=0.30, middle; D=0.24, right) results in the coefficient of determination being higher than the threshold value (r2 =0.85, left; r2 =0.79, middle; r2 =0.94, right). The increase in the angle between the survey direction and that of patch elongation makes us set a smaller distance between transects so that we may achieve the same adequacy of reconstructing an original patchy distribution field. At the same time, a larger unit of sampling distance can be set. For example, in the case of the left field, the survey carried out at D=0.40 and d=1/7 with the angle between the survey direction and that of patch elongation equal to 30 gives even better results in terms of original field adequacy (R2 =0.77, 1189 third panel) than the survey conducted at D=0.28 and d=1/6 with the angle between the survey direction and that of patch elongation equal to 60 (r2 =0.74, fourth panel). For the middle field, the survey carried out at D=0.30 and d=1/12 with the angle between the survey direction and that of patch elongation equal to 30 permits us to reconstruct the original field with the same adequacy (r2 =0.61, third panel) as the survey conducted at D=0.14 and d=1/7 with the angle between the survey direction and that of patch elongation equal to 60 (r2 =0.61, fourth panel). Finally, for the right field, the survey carried out at D=0.24 and d=1/7 with the angle between the survey direction and that of patch elongation equal to 30 gives almost the same results in terms of original field adequacy (r2 =0.88, third panel) as the survey conducted at D=0.16 and d=1/5 with the angle between the survey direction and that of patch elongation equal to 60 (r2 =0.85, fourth panel). This is explained, ultimately, by the relationship of autocorrelation radii located in two reciprocally perpendicular directions (the autocorrelation radius located at a smaller angle to the major axis of autocorrelation ellipse is always larger than that situated at a larger angle). The results of the simulated surveys with various ratios of sampling distance units to autocorrelation radius are considered below (Figure 4; it should be remembered that these dependences are obtained under the assumption that D/Rs <1.5). The existence of a distinct relationship fitting the generalized data set (r2 vs. d/Rp) confirms the possibility of using the autocorrelation radius in the direction perpendicular to the survey direction as a parameter of a field in choosing the unit of sampling distance. From Figure 4 it can be seen that with the d/Rp ratio increasing to 1.0–1.5, the coefficient of determination changes only slightly and remains comparatively high, while with further increase, this coefficient falls considerably. For this reason, we suggest choosing the unit of sampling distance to be less than (1.0–1.5)Rp. Thus, when designing a real survey, if a priori information is available on the autocorrelation radius for a field in any direction, the unit of sampling distance in this direction can be chosen. This unit ensures the required match between the field reconstructed on the basis of the data from the survey designed and that really existing in the water body, although unknown. A posteriori test for anisotropy. In the absence of a priori information on patch orientation, a survey is usually conducted in an arbitrary direction and the distribution field is reconstructed assuming the area for the data weighting and search is circular (isotropic). However, the mathematical experiments show that such a hypothesis may lead to considerable distortions in reconstructing anisotropic fields Figure 3. First panel: simulated patchy isotropic fields. Second to fourth panels: paths of simulated surveys conducted in arbitrary directions, and distribution fields as reconstructed using a priori information on patch orientation (third and fourth panels show the unit of sampling distance set along the transects). Right column represents the gaps. Patchy distribution fields 1191 (R=0.27 or R=0.24, depending on the transect chosen). The field reconstructed with this type of orientation of the ellipse for the data weighting and search is the optimal one, attainable on the basis of the data from the survey conducted. If the rotation of this ellipse does not indicate any substantial change in the autocorrelation radius for the reconstructed field, the latter is assumed to be isotropic. Thus, the algorithm remains valid when a unit of sampling distance is set along transects and can be used to determine a posteriori the direction of patch elongation. Dynamic fields Figure 4. Coefficient of determination between the reconstructed field and that originally generated as a function of the d/Rp ratio. Filled symbols correspond to surveys of patchy distribution fields; empty symbols, to those of gappy fields. Colours correspond to the results of the simulated surveys of the fields shown in Figures 1–3; dark blue, Figure 1, left and right; red, Figure 1, middle; crimson, Figure 2, left and right; light blue, Figure 2, middle; yellow, Figure 3, left and right; green, Figure 3, middle (surveys corresponding to the empty red, light blue and green circles are not shown in Figures 1–3). The coefficient of determination regarding isotropic fields is obtained by averaging the results of the surveys carried out in the directions of abscissa and ordinate axes. The solid line represents the non-linear regression ensuring the minimal sum of squared residuals (the ends of the straight lines indicate the bend of non-linear regression). Dashed lines are the borders of the confidence interval with the probability p=0.99. (Kalikhman & Ostrovsky, 1997). As shown in the same paper, better results are obtained if the field is reconstructed as anisotropic, with the major axis of the ellipse for the data weighting and search adjusted to the direction of the patch elongation. Let us test this algorithm under the assumption that a unit of sampling distance is set along transects. An original anisotropic distribution field is presented in Figure 5 (first panel, first position). A survey with the distance between transects D=0.40 and the unit of sampling distance d=1/7, and the field reconstructed as an isotropic one, are given in the second position of Figure 5. Let us consider the same survey but with the field reconstructed as an anisotropic one (Figure 5, second panel). The rotation of the ellipse for the data weighting and search is presented in the first to third positions. When the major axis of the ellipse for the data weighting and search coincides with the direction of patch elongation (third position), the maximal autocorrelation radius for the reconstructed field is obtained Let us consider the same conditions as those taken in the study by Kalikhman & Ostrovsky (1997): i.e. all patches were moved in the same direction uniformly and rectilinearly; simulated surveys were undertaken in the opposite, same and perpendicular directions relative to that of patch movement; the speed of patch movement was 0.7, or 0.5, or 0.3 of that of the survey. Survey design was examined regarding the conditions widely met in practice (McAllister, 1998): i.e. the field was reconstructed disregarding the information on the patch movement and compared with the average original field. Let us test the criterion for choosing a survey direction in the case when the unit of sampling distance is set along transects. In Figure 6 (first panel), the following conditions are, in particular, considered: the survey is carried out in the opposite direction relative to that of the patch movement; the speed of patch movement is equal to 0.7 of the survey; the distance between transects is D=0.14; the unit of sampling distance is d=1/7. The average original field is shown in the second panel, first position. The situation that could be described by the Doppler effect occurs when the survey and the patches move in the opposite directions (second position); the Doppler effect is also observed when the survey and the patches move in the same direction (third position). The survey in the opposite direction leads to the maximal coefficient of determination between the reconstructed field and the average original one (r2 =0.64). The survey in the perpendicular direction results in the minimal coefficient of determination (r2 =0.49). In general, as shown by the simulations, if the extension of patches in the direction of movement exceeds that of the surveyed area, a survey in the same direction may result in missing patches, and therefore produces poorer results as compared to that in the opposite direction (Figure 6). In contrast, if the extension of patches in the direction of movement is smaller than that of the surveyed area, a survey in the opposite direction may result in missing patches, and so gives poorer results compared to that in the same direction. Mathematical experiments with lower speeds of patch movement confirm the regularity observed. Thus, the algorithms 1192 I. Kalikhman Figure 5. First panel, first position: simulated patchy rotated anisotropic field (earlier considered in Figure 3, left). Reconstructed as a result of the survey with the distance between transects D=0.40 and the unit of sampling distance d=1/7 when no a priori information on patch orientation is available: first panel, second position, as an isotropic field (the area for the data weighting and search is circular); second panel, as an anisotropic field (the angle between the major axis of the ellipse for the data weighting and search and the direction of patch elongation is indicated). Transects used to estimate the autocorrelation functions for the reconstructed field are shown with straight crimson lines. remain valid for cases where a unit of sampling distance is set along transects. Conclusions Survey design and the algorithm of data analysis for distribution fields consisting of gaps are exactly the same as they are for patchy distribution fields. A priori information on patch orientation and autocorrelation radii for the field in two reciprocally perpendicular directions allows optimization of the survey design and the algorithm of data analysis. To some extent it is possible to compensate the change in adequacy of reconstructing a patchy distribution field by an increase of the distance between transects and a corresponding decrease of the sampling distance unit, and vice versa. It is practically expedient to carry out a survey with a larger distance between transects and a smaller unit of sampling distance. A field can be reconstructed properly (r2 >0.70) if D/Rs <1.0–1.5 and d/Rp <1.0–1.5, where Rs and Rp are the autocorrelation radii for the field in the direction of the survey and in the perpendicular direction. If a priori information on the field is not available, the direction of patch elongation should be determined when reconstructing the field, i.e. a posteriori. Testing the algorithm with the assumption that the unit of sampling distance is set along transects confirms its correctness for this case. The direction of the major axis of the ellipse for the data weighting and search, for which the autocorrelation radius for the reconstructed field is maximal, indicates the direction of patch elongation. If the rotation of this ellipse does not indicate any substantial changes in the autocorrelation radius for the reconstructed field, the latter is assumed to be isotropic. With respect to the field movement, the test of the criterion for choosing a survey direction confirms its applicability for the case when a unit of sampling distance is set along transects. The criterion is based on the comparison of the dimension of moving patches in Patchy distribution fields 1193 Figure 6. A moving field (earlier presented in Figure 2, left, as an immovable one) and the path of the simulated survey carried out in the opposite direction relative to that of the patch movement. The speed of patch movement is 0.7 of that of the survey; the distance between transects D=0.14 and the unit of sampling distance d=1/7. First panel, sequence of positions of the field and the survey. Second panel, average original field (first position); the fields reconstructed from the results of the surveys in the opposite, same and perpendicular directions (second to fourth positions). Smaller arrows indicate the direction of the patch movement, larger ones, the directions of the surveys. the direction of movement and that of the surveyed area. If the extension of moving patches exceeds that of a surveyed area, a survey in the opposite direction gives better results; in contrast, if the extension of moving patches is smaller than that of a surveyed area, it is reasonable to carry out a survey in the same direction. Acknowledgements I wish to thank the reviewer Dr Robert Kieser and the anonymous reviewer for the attentive reading of my paper and constructive criticism which allowed me to improve the manuscript substantially. I am grateful to the Israeli Ministry of Absorption, the Israeli Ministry of Science and Technology, the Rich Foundation, AID and BSF, whose financial support made this study possible. References Cressie, N. A. C. 1991. Statistics for Spatial Data. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York. 900 pp. Croxton, F. E., Cowden, D. J., and Klein, S. 1968. 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