Multi Year Product Strategy Plan Reference: CMEMS-MYP-Strategy Plan Document release number: 1 Date: 27/07/2016 Contributors: Karina von Schuckmann, Marie Drévillon, Pierre-Yves Le Traon 0 CMEMS MULTI YEAR PRODUCT STRATEGY PLAN – Ref: CMEMS-MYP-Strategy Plan – Date: 27 July 2016 – Issue: 1.3 Change Record Issue Date § Description of Change Author 1.1 03/05/2016 all First version of document Karina von Schuckmann, Marie Drevillon 1.2 11/05/2016 all Revision, including input from CMEMS coordination meeting in Tallinn (April 2016) Karina von Schuckmann, Marie Drevillon, Pierre-Yves Le Traon 1.3 17/05/2016 all Revision Karina von Schuckmann, Marie Drevillon, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Angelique Mélet, Fabrice Hernandez 1.4 27/07/2016 all Revision after feedback from CMEMS STAC Karina von Schuckmann, Marie Drevillon, Pierre-Yves Le Traon 0 CMEMS MULTI YEAR PRODUCT STRATEGY PLAN – Ref: CMEMS-MYP-Strategy Plan – Date: 27 July 2016 – Issue: 1.3 Table of content 1 SCOPE OF THE DOCUMENT ................................................................................................. 2 2 PRINCIPLES, REQUIREMENTS .............................................................................................. 2 3 COORDINATION OF THE INTERFACE BETWEEN CMEMS MYP AND EXTERNAL CLIMATE MYP ............................................................................................................................................ 3 4 COORDINATION OF MYP FOR AN OPTIMIZED USE, PROCESSING AND STATE-OF-THE-ARTDELIVERY .................................................................................................................................... 5 4.1 Consistency for MYP .................................................................................................... 5 4.2 Continuity .................................................................................................................... 6 4.3 Interfaces with space agencies for upstream data ..................................................... 7 5 OCEAN MONITORING AND STATE-OF-THE-ART OCEAN VARIABILITY AND CHANGE REPORTING ................................................................................................................................. 8 6 5.1 CMEMS Ocean State Report (OSR) .............................................................................. 8 5.2 CMEMS Ocean Monitoring Indicators (OMIs) ........................................................... 10 VALIDATION FRAMEWORK FOR QUALITY INSURANCE..................................................... 11 1 1 CMEMS MULTI YEAR PRODUCT STRATEGY PLAN – Ref: CMEMS-MYP-Strategy Plan – Date: 27 July 2016 – Issue: 1.3 1 SCOPE OF THE DOCUMENT This document presents elements of strategy of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) Multi Year Product cross-cutting activity, 2016-2021. 2 PRINCIPLES, REQUIREMENTS The CMEMS aims to deliver generic and reliable information, derived from space and in-situ observations and from models – including forecasts, analyses and reanalyses – on the physical and biogeochemical state over the global ocean and the European regional seas. Information delivered by CMEMS is then used by the downstream sector, which includes value-added services delivered by national institutions and private companies. In order to fulfil these requirements, the Multi Year Product (MYP) activity is one of the core crosscutting functions of CMEMS, bridging top-level management by Mercator Ocean to routine and operational production of multi year time series. Production of re-analyses (RAN) and reprocessed (REP) time series using delayed time quality controlled input observations and boundary conditions (e.g. reanalysed atmospheric forcing) is achieved by each Production Centre (MFCs, TACs). Each centre possesses the expertise (and can make specific scientific choices) in order to provide state-of-the-art RAN or REP on each region (global and regional seas) and for all variables. Crosscutting functionalities for CMEMS MYP are necessary for the integrated systems to operationally run, evolve, and deliver the service to the users. As required by users such as environmental agencies, ocean state and marine environment monitoring is a major objective for CMEMS, and must rely on continuous and high quality RAN and REP time series, which go up to real time. This demands a dedicated effort on “integrated operations” to ensure on the long term a fully consistent approach across the different service elements, organize their interoperability, their interdependencies, and joint operations. 2 2 CMEMS MULTI YEAR PRODUCT STRATEGY PLAN – Ref: CMEMS-MYP-Strategy Plan – Date: 27 July 2016 – Issue: 1.3 Four different areas for progress on the principal goal of CMEMS MYP strategy have been identified: 1. 2. 3. 4. Coordination of the interface between CMEMS MYP and external climate MYP (C3S) Coordination of MYP for an optimized use, processing and state-of-the-art delivery Ocean monitoring and state-of-the-art ocean variability and change reporting Validation framework for quality assurance A revision of these different strategy actions will be performed at annual frequency. 3 COORDINATION OF THE INTERFACE BETWEEN CMEMS MYP AND EXTERNAL CLIMATE MYP The CMEMS and C3S (Copernicus Climate Change Service) MYP have different definitions and goals, in particular: • CMEMS MYP: To monitor the marine environment from the past until now, CMEMS distributes multi-year products (MYP) of the entire marine system (physical and biogeochemical variables) for the global ocean and European regional seas. They are based on an ensemble of high resolution quality checked and consistent reprocessed (REP) and reanalysis (RAN) MYP. The MYP development is driven by user needs in the four areas of benefits of CMEMS (maritime safety, coastal and marine environment, marine resources, weather and seasonal forecast and climate). It takes advantage of the latest scientific and technical advances, aiming at a seamless connection with CMEMS real time (RT) products. The objective is to have the CMEMS MYP time series to come closer to real time (a few months only) with a systematic yearly update. Regional CMEMS MYP particularly benefit from both higher resolution and specific regional tunings. CMEMS assures the collections of “best quality” input data for RAN MYP and maximal use of multiple observation systems for REP MYP (possibly using some non-reprocessed Level 1 or 2 input satellite observations). The principal purpose is to deliver consistent reference records for ocean state reporting and other monitoring activities (e.g. Ocean Monitoring Indicators), to derive quality indicators and diagnostic tools as well as to provide a necessary reference statistical framework for real time applications. 3 3 CMEMS MULTI YEAR PRODUCT STRATEGY PLAN – Ref: CMEMS-MYP-Strategy Plan – Date: 27 July 2016 – Issue: 1.3 • Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) MYP: For a selection of essential climate variables ECVs, dedicated REP of climate quality (C3S MYP) are focused on the quality, consistency and homogeneity of the observing system. Achieving climate quality (e.g. GCOS requirements) also generally implies a reprocessing at the input data set level (e.g. of Level 1 or 2 data products for remote sensing REP). Only a subset of input datasets over the REP time period should be included as the main objective is to ensure homogeneity of the observing system over the long time series, and to focus on the most accurate observations. In some cases, C3S MYP cannot answer operational MYP requirements such as systematic updates and extensions close to RT. The production of these time series is not directly supported by CMEMS (this is done under ESA CCI projects and later on as part of C3S) but should be coordinated with CMEMS. C3S REP are needed for CMEMS ocean monitoring activities and will be disseminated through CMEMS and used for the OSR. The production of continuous and operational REP MYP under CMEMS is an important and unique activity for the European Commission Copernicus program. It is different and complementary to the C3S MYP production. The first users of CMEMS REP are CMEMS RAN, which make use of as much as possible ocean observations to produce best estimates of the ocean variability using analysis and forecasting systems based on models and data assimilation. The foreseen evolution of RAN products includes the production of ensembles of RAN, obtained by varying the forcing or the input observations, in order to take into account the uncertainty linked with the change in time of the observation network or forcing function. In this framework, CMEMS RAN assimilating either C3S REP or CMEMS REP would complement each other. The joint CORA and EN4 product, developed by CMEMS, is another example of the successful gathering of products and skills leading to unique reference MYP. Another strategic goal for the CMEMS REP and RAN is to go on achieving higher spatial and temporal resolution, at global and regional scales, than MYP designed for climate studies. Last but not least, biogeochemical RAN are developed, produced and distributed for the CMEMS that will become a key element of climate variability studies in the future, and thus exchanges and progress around biogeochemical data assimilation will be very useful for both climate research community and MFCs (this last point is also important for NRT products and will be addressed with a dedicated cross cutting activity). The initiation of reference MYP at high resolution including biogeochemical variables is a necessary step to serve the coastal applications, and to be able to deliver high resolution boundary conditions or specific parameters, for instance. As a consequence, an interface between CMEMS MYP and climate MYP needs to be developed and coordinated, in particular between CMEMS and C3S. This logical consequence is also supported by the fundamental role of ocean information on a comprehensive climate monitoring. Action 1: Set up a mechanism for high-level interaction between C3S and CMEMS 4 4 CMEMS MULTI YEAR PRODUCT STRATEGY PLAN – Ref: CMEMS-MYP-Strategy Plan – Date: 27 July 2016 – Issue: 1.3 4 COORDINATION OF MYP FOR AN OPTIMIZED USE, PROCESSING AND STATE-OF-THE-ART-DELIVERY 4.1 CONSISTENCY FOR MYP The objective for consistency for MYPs is to optimize the internal processing of CMEMS MYP in order to improve the MYP service and information for users. Consistency here means that the RAN and REP time series are as homogeneous as possible in terms of input data quality, processing methods, atmospheric forcing or correction (if any). Thus, improving consistency does not necessarily imply decreasing quality. Consistency is also thought between CMEMS TACs and MFCs products aiming at improving the interfaces, coordination, and finally simplifies the catalogue for users. Currently, this is only partly achieved within CMEMS (Figure 1). Different tasks for progress have been identified to develop a strategy for the coordination of operational production for cross-usage between the global and the regional systems as well as between model-derived and observation-derived products: • • • RANs can use REPs for data assimilation and validation. Regional RANs can use global RANs at the boundaries. RANs can use consistent state-of-the-art input datasets (e.g. rivers, atmospheric forcing, bathymetry, initial conditions). Action 2: Perform a coordinated assessment for MYP consistency and develop CMEMS framework for upstream data use and establish cross-cutting exchange frameworks, as well as to develop an « annual integration schedule » for MYP with central CMEMS technical coordination (see IV.2 « Continuity » for more details) 5 5 CMEMS MULTI YEAR PRODUCT STRATEGY PLAN – Ref: CMEMS-MYP-Strategy Plan – Date: 27 July 2016 – Issue: 1.3 Figure 1: Assessment for cross-usage between the global and the regional systems as well as between model-derived and observation-derived products at V2. Cross indicates the use of internal CMEMS products for data assimilation, circle shows the use of external products for CMEMS RAN systems, and the different colors are associated to the different parameters used (SST: Sea Surface Temperature; SL: Sea Level; IN SITU: in situ data; SIC: Sea Ice Concentration; CHL: Chlorophyll) 4.2 CONTINUITY The principal objective for continuity of CMEMS MYP is to maintain MYP time series close to real time. The short-term goal is to produce RAN and REP time series, which end one year before real time (RT), and a few months before RT as a long-term goal. This effort will guarantee state-of-the-art operational MYP and services for the user delivery and reveal a robust basis for annual ocean state reporting (see section 3). Currently (V2), most of RANs (80%) and REPs (86%) end 2 years before real time. The principal strategy plan to achieve continuity for CMEMS MYPs is to develop and implement an internal production calendar (Fig. 2). In particular, goals are to achieve continuity NRT-1 year (or better) for REPs until V3, and for RANs until V4. The long-term goal is to achieve continuity close to RT (a few months) before the year 2020. Action 3: Development and implementation of an integrated production calendar 6 6 CMEMS MULTI YEAR PRODUCT STRATEGY PLAN – Ref: CMEMS-MYP-Strategy Plan – Date: 27 July 2016 – Issue: 1.3 Figure 2: Schema for RAN annual integration schedule for MYP with central CMEMS technical coordination aiming to reach MYP close to real time (1 year before RT). 4.3 INTERFACES WITH SPACE AGENCIES FOR UPSTREAM DATA The production of all REP MYP obtained from remote sensing data are dependent on upstream data as processed by space agencies and other programs (ESA, EUMETSAT, OSI SAF, …). These include Level 1 and Level 2 data. Thus, the schedule for CMEMS REP MYP is strongly dependent on these processing levels (if for example Level 1 and Level 2 are completely reprocessed, and/ or new corrections have been added, this has to be applied on CMEMS MYP REP as well). As a consequence, the development of an interface between CMEMS and space agencies for upstream data processing schedule is needed, and an action on this issue needs to be developed. Action 4: Set up a mechanism for high-level interaction between EUMETSAT and ESA, starting with the development of a short dedicated strategy document. 7 7 CMEMS MULTI YEAR PRODUCT STRATEGY PLAN – Ref: CMEMS-MYP-Strategy Plan – Date: 27 July 2016 – Issue: 1.3 5 OCEAN MONITORING AND STATE-OFTHE-ART OCEAN VARIABILITY AND CHANGE REPORTING The CMEMS ocean monitoring and state-of-the-art ocean reporting (state, variability and change) for the global ocean and European seas is part of the TACs’ and MFCs’ production center service elements in order to establish a unique reference of value-added expert information at a regular frequency. This will be achieved through two principal activities: 1. Annual release of the CMEMS Ocean State Report (OSR) to monitor and describe ocean variability and change from the past to present 2. Development of Ocean Monitoring Indicators (OMIs) and related operational framework Both the OSR and OMIs will guarantee scientifically sound state-of-the-art information and service, and will support the interface development between CMEMS and external research projects (such as ESA-CCI), as well as the interface between CMEMS and Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). Moreover, this activity will help to reach a wide audience such as: • • • • Climate science community: WCRP (CLIVAR, GEWEX), ESA-GMECV/CCI (CMUG), IPCC, H2020, SOLAS, … Climate service and agencies (e.g. WMO, Copernicus Climate Change Service, European and national agencies,…) Environmental reporting/bodies (e.g. MSFD, HELCOM, OSPAR, ICES, Convention of Barcelona, …) General public 5.1 CMEMS OCEAN STATE REPORT (OSR) The CMEMS OSR is aiming to produce state-of-the-art value-added and coherent information based on expert analysis derived from MYP RAN and REP describing the state of the global ocean and the European regional seas (Fig. 3), highlighting changes occurred during the previous year (i.e. focus on changes in the year 2015 for the OSR 2016). Emphasis will be put on the increase of general public awareness about the marine environment, its 8 8 CMEMS MULTI YEAR PRODUCT STRATEGY PLAN – Ref: CMEMS-MYP-Strategy Plan – Date: 27 July 2016 – Issue: 1.3 environmental status and its potential in terms of resources. Moreover, links to specific events taking place in the marine environment will be developed which have societal consequences (e.g. inundations, hazards, climate impacts, …). The CMEMS OSR will be published in a peer-reviewed journal (Journal of Operational Oceanography), and key aspects will be highlighted on the CMEMS portal and in a short synthesis document. This activity will assure scientific creditability of the CMEMS service, and strongly supports the scientific collaboration at European level. The short-term strategy is currently developed, which includes: • • • the establishment of an OSR Task Team (OSR TT) chaired by Mercator Ocean, which exchanges regularly at a monthly basis (teleconferences), the establishment of an editorial board (members of the STAC) to organize the external review to assure independent (from the journal) scheduling, the preparation for the first release in September 2016 in the Journal of Operational Oceanography. The objective is to implement a systematic annual release of the CMEMS OSR. Figure 3: Structuration of the first CMEMS Ocean State Report (release September 2016) 9 9 CMEMS MULTI YEAR PRODUCT STRATEGY PLAN – Ref: CMEMS-MYP-Strategy Plan – Date: 27 July 2016 – Issue: 1.3 5.2 CMEMS OCEAN MONITORING INDICATORS (OMIS) CMEMS OMIs are defined as operational time series which allow a regular monitoring of the ocean state, variability and change at global and European scales from 1992 up to RT, together with a quality description and scientific context. Two activities are planned which include: • • Information dissemination on a CMEMS webpage with figures of OMIs and scientific context. Distribution of OMI time series in the CMEMS catalogue, accompanied by appropriate (reduced) version of the Product User Manual (PUM) and Quality Information Document (QUID). A regular up-date of OMIs is planned (3 monthly up to one year), which depends on the type of OMI and the scientific quality assurance 1. The development of OMIs is strictly based on scientific validation 2. Depending on the OMI type and status of scientific validation, they will be derived from either REP or RAN. Inter-comparison is not foreseen as a validation of RAN with REP (PQ activity) but the ensemble of CMEMS products may be used to derive uncertainties for the OMIs. In order to assure operational OMI production at a regular frequency, the use of both, MYP and NRT products is necessary (Figure 4). However, the interface between CMEMS and C3S is of particular importance for OMI production, and a combined used of CMEMS MYP and climate MYP is planned, which is hence linked to coordination strategy as described in section III. A particular challenge is the consistency of both CMEMS and climate MYP, which is currently addressed in the context of the OSR. As a short-term strategy, Mercator Ocean will develop two OMIs (information+distribution) for V2.2, i.e. global ocean heat content and global mean sea level as an example. On the mid-term, more OMIs are planned to be developed for V3, mostly based on the OSR activity. A long-term goal is to establish a comprehensive set of CMEMS OMIs to establish a unique reference of value-added expert information at a regular frequency. 1 This is in particular the case for OMIs derived from REP, and mostly depends on data sampling. For example, time series for mean ocean heat content in European Seas are still most reliable at an annual mean basis due to low in situ sampling in these areas. For OMIs derived from RAN, the consistency between MYP and NRT systems can potentially limit the OMI up-date frequency. 2 Scientific validation means here method development in a peer-reviewed scientific journal, including the CMEMS OSR 10 10 CMEMS MULTI YEAR PRODUCT STRATEGY PLAN – Ref: CMEMS-MYP-Strategy Plan – Date: 27 July 2016 – Issue: 1.3 Figure 4: Schematic overview on planned OMI and OSR activities and underlying data base use. 6 VALIDATION FRAMEWORK FOR QUALITY INSURANCE A specific strategy task needs to be developed for the validation framework for quality insurance aiming to complement (and cross-link, Figure 5) the CMEMS Product Quality Control (PQC) activity. The particular emphasize lies here on the validation of MYP consistency, continuity and ocean monitoring and reporting. This is necessary to gain scientific credibility and to guarantee state-of-the-art operational information of high quality (and related information). 11 11 CMEMS MULTI YEAR PRODUCT STRATEGY PLAN – Ref: CMEMS-MYP-Strategy Plan – Date: 27 July 2016 – Issue: 1.3 Figure 5: Overview on MYP validation framework and links with CMEMS PQC activities. The CMEMS PQC activity assures the quality (and related information on quality) of the CMEMS MYP and NRTproducts, and details are given in the CMEMS PQC Strategy Plan (Ref: CMEMS-PQC-Strategy Plan). Outputs from OSR and OMI activities can in turn support PQC with the definition of new metrics for MYP validation purpose. OSR validation activities rely on peer-reviewed scientific publications, technical analyses as well as on CMEMS scientific expertise (see section V.1 for more details). Same holds for the OMI validation activities that will also include a systematic cross-comparison of OMIs derived from CMEMS MYP, climate MYP and CMEMS NRT products. 12 12
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