Publicly Funded TBED Programs and New Firm Survival Fall 2009 White Paper 2009-004 Matthew Hamilton President Wellspring Worldwide Robert A. Lowe Chief Executive Officer Wellspring Worldwide Francisco Veloso Associate Professor Carnegie Mellon University 1. Introduction Figure 1. Public-Private Funding Matrix Private Financing Strategy Technology-based Economic Development (TBED) is the modern cornerstone of virtually every U.S. region’s growth strategy. TBED programs focus on launching and supporting high-tech start-ups in a city or state in efforts to increase local Regional TBED Strategy employment rates and attractive new financial capital and wealth to the region. The number and scale of TBED organizations in the U.S. continue to increase dramatically, culminating in over $1.3 billion in investments (2004) by states and regions to support over 400 programs nationally. The increase in public spending on TBED activities over the Public-Private Finance Partnership Publicly-Funded Companies Venture CapitalFinanced Bootstrapped previous decade has, on average, been twice the growth rate of the overall state government expenditures. This scale of investment is similar to federal commercialization funding, such as the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program that received ~$2.5 billion in the same period. TBED is also comparable to private venture capital (VC) which had more than $20 billion in investments, but only $4 billion was allocated to • How do direct investment programs impact start-up • What types of TBED programs are most effective in success in a region? early-stage, start-up ventures in this period. regions hit hardest by declines in manufacturing, mining, and promoting regional growth? This white paper summarizes research that specifically examines other industrial sectors, “post-industrial cities.” The State of firm founding rates and firm success rates according to funding Pennsylvania allocated nearly $2 billion of Tobacco Settlement strategy. TBED Investments have been particularly concentrated in monies for public venture capital and research in support of a biotechnology industry in the state. The Illinois Department Figure 1 illustrates a framework for analyzing firm performance of Commerce and Economic Opportunity funded the ITEC as a function of strategy. Each square in the matrix represents one initiative, setting up publicly supported venture funding centers at of four possible funding paths for a given technology company. universities around the state. In 2004, Cleveland-area foundations The two axes indicate (1) whether a given firm received direct created a formalized collaboration platform in the Fund for Our TBED funding (e.g., TBED investment) or programmatic support Economic Future to coordinate grant-making directly to various and (2) whether the firm received additional private investment TBED initiatives. This effort followed the State of Ohio’s Third capital or not (Bootstrapped). Frontier initiative, a 10-year initiative targeting over $1.6B in In this research, we seek to primarily focus on direct TBED start-up investment. investments in companies, rather than programmatic initiatives, At the local level, Pittsburgh maintains more TBED organizations whereby services are provided rather than an investment in than any two other cities in the US. State-by-state and city-by- companies. The y-axis in Figure 1 represents the types of TBED city, significant investments have become commonplace over the resources available. Note that TBED Programming implies no past decade. direct public investments are available to start-ups in the region, only incubation assistance, business planning, and other services. Given the growth, magnitude, and diversity of TBED programs TBED Investment indicates regions where direct funding is established in the past decade, the effectiveness of TBED available, and service programs may also be offered. program design demands careful understanding of two issues: In the sections that follow, we first examine the private venture capital market by Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) in a 1 selection of post-industrial cities to characterize the scope of We strongly support the goals of TBED programs; they investment and entrepreneurship activity in each of twelve areas. represent engines of the modern innovation economy. Yet, with This analysis creates a contextual perspective to understand resources comes responsibility. Resources, both financial and the relative position of Pittsburgh. It also provides a backdrop programmatic, offer enormous potential for fostering technology to compare the funding and start-up activity in three regions, sectors locally and sustained regional growth, but only if coupled Pittsburgh, Denver, and Indianapolis in detail. The latter is the with local community demand. The mix and type of resources basis for a detailed study of the impact of different approaches to provided, the (early) investment staging and careful monitoring TBED support and funding on firm founding and success rates. of companies’ progress are essential to get right, yet seemingly Four major insights have emerged from our research: have not been a critical factor in strategic planning. Base rates of firm survival are similar across cities. The survival rate of new firms converges to a comparable level 2. TBED Funding Framework across most cities, regardless of funding sources and industry. TBED investment programs have existed for over three decades. However, the vast majority of TBED investment programs were created following the economic boom of the late 1990’s. TBED investment programs were recognized as a mechanism to fill the “funding gap” technology startups are perceived to face, often referred to as the “Valley of Death”1. This gap is represented in Figure 2, which depicts a conceptual map of when funding sources for tech startups overlap. The conspicuous gap between R&D budgets and private investment funding (e.g., venture capital) represents the gap between money a start-up requires for development and launching operations and when the private market is willing to assume investment risk. Differences in start-ups’ sources of funding affects the rate at which firms survive or fail early in their lives, but not a firm’s survival over the medium term (~5 years). This result does not vary significantly by industrial sectors. Hence, targeting public funds at specific market sectors or at certain stages of firm growth appears to have no long-term impact on firm survival. This suggests that TBED efforts should focus on the regional environment for starting firms and working with entrepreneurs to generate a higher number of technology-oriented companies. Technology hubs (including Pittsburgh) have higher firm survival rates than smaller, less technology-oriented cities. Cities that lack a minimum density of technology firms struggle The Valley exists because available funds to develop a new idea are limited since the new service or product has moved beyond the research phase, but remains underdeveloped with regard to the technology and the value for a potential client. As a result, funding for commercial exploration and exploitation at this stage can be prohibitively difficult to obtain, and the Valley of Death is often cited as the principal reason for the creation of TBED funding programs. to successfully generate surviving technology firms. This finding may suggest that TBED’s in these regions face unique barriers in contributing to regional economic development by helping the growth of local high tech entrepreneurial ventures. TBED programs studied do not serve as gap funding, nor increase the chances of firm survival. If they are to evolve, the goals and monitoring of these programs should shift such that TBED initiatives directly funding firms are channeled towards filling the “Valley of Death”. In practice, TBEDs often do not adhere to this model. Figure 3 illustrates the timing of TBED investments and venture capital investments actually made in Pittsburgh based on age of firm when the investments were made. Statistically, there is no difference in timing between venture capital funding and TBED funding. In fact, these two curves track very closely. On average, TBED’s in our TBED programs that mix leadership and financial support from public and private communities are twice as likely to have a positive economic impact. The most effective regional programs have publicly funded TBED programs that are initiated by local community groups (local demand driven). Top-down programs initiated by public sector and private organizations (e.g., foundations, corporate-led) experience higher rates of failure. 2 1. As one of several examples, see L. Branscomb and P. Auerswald (2002). Between Invention and Innovation. Report NIST GCR 02–841 Figure 2. The Funding Gap Share of total investment needs 0.25 R&D 0.2 The Funding Gap 0.15 Private Investment 0.1 0.05 0 Prior to Formation 0 1 2 3 4 5 Years This observation merits a more detailed empirical examination of the nature and impact of these funding programs. This is especially important because direct start-up financing programs are expensive: across the U.S., expenditures are more than twice the amount spent by other types of economic development programs (e.g., regional promotion, business incubators). Local and state governments support the majority of start-up financing program budgets. 3. Venture Capital Investments and Firm Survival Figure 3. TBED vs. VC funding in Pittsburgh Share of total investment 0.25 The availability of Venture Capital VC across the US exhibits some features 0.2 that are especially important to regions such as Pennsylvania and Pittsburgh 0.15 TBED in particular. Figure 4 illustrates wide distribution of VC money available 0.1 across the US as TBED programs were ramping up. This graph depicts 0.05 total private venture capital funds 0 Prior to 0 in a given state (plus the District Years 1 2 3 4 5 Formation of Columbia) as reported in by Venture Expert, normalized by state population from the 2000 census. Not study invested only slightly before venture capital early surprisingly, California, Massachusetts, and the DC area on and regularly made investments into the third year of a (Maryland-Virginia-DC) are at the top. Notably, the two company, similar to later-round venture capital. states that invested the most monies in TBED activity over This data for Pittsburgh raises the question of whether the past 5 years, Pennsylvania and Ohio, follow closely public funding might simply be pairing private venture behind in VC dollars per capita. funding, rather than seeking to fund the earliest investments as a bridge between R&D spending and private markets Perhaps more interesting, states that had experienced (green line in Figure 2). Such perspective is at odds with significant industrial decline were net importers of venture this idea of TBEDs as playing an important role in funding capital during the early 2000’s. Figure 5 illustrates the the gap. Yet, it would support another argument for TBED net flow of venture capital in and out of each state (i.e., investment, which is that TBED funding is necessary to total funds invested in a given state by VC funds located attract venture capital to the region that would otherwise in other states minus funds based in the state and invested never be invested. elsewhere). Several states with considerable financial wealth, such as 3 New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Illinois have large venture capital investments, but were net exporters of funds. In the top ten by rank, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan saw far more VC dollars flowing in than out in spite of local concerns over lack of regional venture capital sources during this period. Surprisingly, states heralded for their economic growth over the past decade, such as Arizona and Minnesota, were actually behind Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan in net VC inflows at the start of the TBED growth cycle. Minnesota was comparable to these states in VC spend per capita, while Arizona lagged far behind. To understand financing at a more detailed level, we reviewed the 561 VC investments into technology-oriented firms in 12 cities reported in from 1990 to 20072. We specifically chose cities that experienced declines in manufacturing, mining, and other traditional industrial sectors during the 1970’s and 1980’s3. Figure 6 illustrates the density of venture capital-backed startups in each of the 12 cities by the year of formation. That is, of all VC-backed firms in each city between 1990-2007, each graph shows the share of when the firms were founded. Not surprisingly, there is a cluster of firms formed around 1999-2001, at the height of the technology bubble. Figure 4. Average VC Investment, 2001-2003 Figure 5. Net flow of VC funding (2001-2003) more than 60 VC investment in technology-based firms in the study period – which includes Pittsburgh) and small cap cities (i.e., less than 30 VC investments). Figure 7 illustrates survival of firms with 95% confidence intervals. The survival rate of venture-backed firms across cities provides some important perspectives. Survival rates in our analysis are examined using Kaplan-Meier curves, which allow us to estimate the true distribution of firm failures over time while accounting for censored data4. The sample starts with 100% of firms surviving on day 1 and each time a firm fails it is dropped from the sample, such that the estimated rate of surviving firms declines. The x-axis is measured in days since founding of a firm. 2. Note that the data from Pittsburgh’s and Indianapolis’s venture capital investments only starts in 1995, rather than 1990. In regression models and survival estimates, this does not have an impact on the analysis. 3. Note that Youngstown, Ohio, Flint, Michigan, and Erie, Pennsylvania were initially included in this list but did not have any venture capital investments to technology firms as defined by our research criteria. 4. Censored data in this study represents firms that have not failed, but for which we do not have sufficient time to observe the firms. For example, the graphs represent over a decade of firms and a firm founded in early 2005 could only be observed for 4 years in our analysis and thus is censored data in the fifth year. Within these 12 cities, we see a marked difference in firm performance among “large cap” cities (i.e., those with 4 Figure 6. Density of VC-backed Start-ups by Year Denver Indianapolis Kansas City Milwaukee Minneapolis Nashville Oklahoma City Pittsburgh Rochester St. Louis Toledo .3 .2 .1 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 0 Density .4 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 Cleveland This rate is similar to those found by other examinations of venture firm survival on a national basis. A recent research paper that looked at start-ups from 1987 to 2000 found a failure rate of 9% among venture capital investments5. In a previous publication by Lowe, we found that start-ups at the University of California, the majority of which were VC-funded, had a >80% chance of survival over ten years6. 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 year We now turn to a detailed examination of start-up activity and funding sources in three cities, Pittsburgh, Denver, and Indianapolis. These cities represent considerably different approaches to Technology-Based Economic Development, although each city was motivated to respond to industrial declines, namely in steel and glass, mining, and manufacturing, respectively. Graphs by Region We find that small and large cities alike experience equally impressive survival rates during the first 10 years of firm life. However, firms experience markedly different survival after 10 years, when small city firms tend to decline steadily and the survival rate of large city firms persists. Among these firms, we also witness considerable differences in technology field in of the rate of survival. Figure 8 displays start-up survival by three general classes of industry with 95% confidence intervals: Biomedical, Software, and General (Other). Biomedical firms experience far more persistent survival over the first 10 years (significantly so), and the small number of firms in our sample for 15 years experienced higher survival rates than other technology classes. To be clear, this does not necessitate that biomedical start-ups are more successful. Indeed, the considerable capital many such firms launch with, combined with the long product development and sales cycles, means a decade is a often too early for pharmaceutical development and biotechnology firms to measure their success. Eventually venture funded firms in all technology classes reaches a survival rate of 80% (only 20% of the firms went out of business). Our three cities started with similar industrial bases, population sizes, and parallel sets of economic crises in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s. Denver faced the severe decline of mining, metals, and energy industries in the early 1980’s and subsequently the bankruptcy of Storage Technology (large IBM spinout), a devastating loss to the technology community. Pittsburgh and Indianapolis struggled with declining competitiveness in manufacturing and, for Pittsburgh, the movement of steel and glass to Asia. This resulted in statewide unemployment peaks of over 12% in the early 1980s. All the regions faced similar economic recessions in the early 1990s and the “dot-com” boom of the later 1990s and bust in the early 2000s. Yet, with these parallel histories, the creation and evolution of TBED programs in the three regions were notably different, providing three innovation systems to study the catalyst, evolution, and eventual success or failure of various TBED initiatives. 5. Cochrane, John H. “The Risk And Return Of Venture Capital,” Journal of Financial Economics, 2005, v75: 3-52. 6. Lowe, Robert A. “Who Develops a University Invention? The Impact of Tacit Knowledge and Licensing Policies” Journal of Technology Transfer. 2006, v :415-429. 4. Funding Sources and Firm Survival In contrast to the other states in this study, Colorado had an earlier transition to a technology-oriented economy. This 5 helped to dampen the impact of successive recessions in specific industry sectors and resulted in a skilled workforce and strong bottom-up leadership from the community and from experienced entrepreneurs. A number of TBED organizations were created in the periods of economic strife; yet, these initiatives tended to support the growth of existing technology firms and support entrepreneurs through incubation centers rather then by directly funding new businesses. None of the TBED programs in Denver provided direct funding that was significant in scope and funding amounts when compared to states like Indiana and Pennsylvania. Figure 7. Firm survival by city size Indiana’s response to the economic crisis Figure 8. Firm survival by industry class of the early 1980s was similar to that adopted by other states facing industrial decline: the aggressively pursuit of new firms and exploration of new technologyoriented economic development programs. However, the conservative culture and governorship transition that occurred in the late 1980s led to many TBED programs gradually becoming more focused on small business and manufacturing product development, as opposed to emerging technologies or new firm creation. However, this changed in 1997 due to the threat of firm relocation and the emergence of the ‘dot-com’ economy, along with the growing disparity between Indiana and other states’ TBED investments. This state high-technology employment in the late 1980s helped TBED investment program, the 21st Century Fund, was spur continued interest and belief in TBED organizations. started in 1999 and has remained through three transitions Pittsburgh, like Indiana and Denver, experienced an in the governorship. upswing in TBED organization formation during the “dotcom” boom. The number of TBED organizations doubled Pittsburgh has been a laboratory for TBED organizations and funding from state and foundations increased by more for several decades and has continued to make large, direct than three times its previous level. investments into new technology firms. The region has generated a series of TBED organizations starting in the early 1980s that is unparalleled by other regions of the U.S. A brief but dramatic rise in the venture funds and Based on a variety of economic and political conditions, different types of TBED organization emerged. Moreover, 6 for both Indianapolis and Pittsburgh we have information on both venture capital funded and TBED funded firms. But for Denver we only observe venture capital investments, which will limit our analysis of this city. Figure 9 shows the overall venture funding amounts normalized to populations. The next set of survival curves (Figure 11) illustrates survival rates across cities by funding sources (label = 1 when source is present). The survival curves for TBEDfunded, bootstrapped, and venture-backed were statistically the same across the cities. Only firms that received both VC investment and TBED investment (see Figure 3) exhibited slightly higher survival rates. However, the firms in this category are notably fewer in number, and statistical differences are not clear given the relatively small sample size. In each of these regions we examined firm survival based on the type of funding received from 1990 to 2007. Firm funding can come in one of four forms: 1. Bootstrapped (1403 firms) 2. Venture capital (207 firms) 3. TBED organizations (108 firms) 4. Venture capital and TBED (29 firms) Pittsburgh represents the most robust TBED investment community among the three cities profiled. Figure 12 compares survival of start-ups founded in the Pittsburgh MSA by funding source. Figure 12 reveals perhaps the most fascinating aspect in this research: Pittsburgh firms demonstrated the same survival rate after ~5.5 years (2000 days) among each type of funding source. TBED-funded companies (no VC) tend to be more likely to survive early when bootstrapped and VC-backed firms tend to decline, but eventually survive at the same base rate as other firms. In contrast, VC-funded tend to exit early, as investors pull monies from failing companies, and stabilize to a base survival rate quickly. Firms that receive both VC and TBED support appear to have a survival rate slightly above the rest, but this set includes a relatively small number of observations; more data is needed to confirm or refute these survival differences as statistically significant. Purely venture capital investments were rare in the Pittsburgh market, but common in other markets with fewer resources supporting TBED initiatives. In Figure 10, we see the baseline survival rates of bootstrapped firms in each of the three markets across time (in days). Remarkably, all three markets have statistically the same survival rate for bootstrapped firms during the first five years of firm life. This is a fairly high survival rate, as well, exceeding 80%. After five years, we find a significant divergence between each, whereby Indianapolis first decline rapidly. Denver firms appear to perform marginally better than Pittsburgh, though these two curves converge to a common survival rate in the long run . The significance of this finding cannot be overstated. This data suggests there is a natural survival rate and the source of investment capital a company starts with merely dictates when the firm will be most likely to exit, but not the overall likelihood. Moreover, the area between the solely TBED-funded companies (red line) and solely VC-funded companies (green line) is the effective resource cost to the local economy: funding used by TBED’s to prolong start-up firm that on average will result in the same likelihood of survival. Figure 9. Number of Firms (per million residents) receiving VC funding These survival rates in Pittsburgh place in context our earlier observation that TBED 7 investment, on average, pairs closely with venture capital investment. Those firms that receive both TBED and VC funding appear to have sufficient monies to survival for extended periods. Yet, the data cannot demonstrate that TBED funding necessarily improved survival for the firms supported. Alternatively, it may only indicate that these firms were well funded by multiple sources since they had clear signals of future success that were observed by funding organizations. Section 5. The Cooperative Role of Institutional Change in TBED Systems Figure 10. Survival curve for bootstrapped companies across cities Figure 11. Survival by funding source The previous research addressed efficiencies in specific TBED investments. In a related analysis, we examine the role of how multiple TBED organizations and programs coordinate or compete within a region. As part of this analysis, we are able to identify the most effective coordination levels among TBED organizations operating in the same ecosystem. This work examined the evolution of TBED programs primarily in three regions, Pittsburgh, Denver, and Indianapolis, over the past 25 years. Histories and data from programs in a wide range of other regions were incorporated to supplement the examination of three target regions. We applied a set of 6 heuristic measures of TBED program performance to capture success in a range of potential outcomes and program goals. The four categories include Top down programs. These are for example initiatives like Indiana’s 21st Century funds, which were created and funded by economic development leadership and state legislation. Bottom up initiatives include Colorado’s Techstars program that was formed by local entrepreneurs in Boulder, CO to assist emerging business ideas and was designed and funded by a community of innovators. The key insight is the role of synchronicity between regional leadership funding a TBED program and the technology community implementing the program. We also observe many TBED programs that are “coupled” in that they effectively pair local parties either Four distinct roles are critical in each region. These are illustrated in Table 1, which also provides a summary of the analysis. There is a unique role for TBED program originators (those initiating the program) versus financial supporters. The further division between the innovation community and economic development community captures the different perspectives and incentives various parties face. 8 as originators or funders with parties outside the local community in a complementary role. For example, programs demanded by local entrepreneurs, professors, or innovative companies could be funded by state agencies. Alternatively, coupled programs could also be publicly supported (thus, initiated) by elected officials might be funded by small businesses and local entrepreneurs. Figure 12. Survival by funding source, Pittsburgh Table 1 reports the universe of relevant combinations for the program as well as their success. This was measured using six-factor heuristic model developed for the analysis of the various case studies. As shown, TBED programs that combine resources, regardless of whether the TBED was initiated by the economic development leadership or the innovation community, experienced successful outcomes at about twice the rate of programs where the government or community acted alone. On average, unsuccessful programs were those instituted “top-down,” where the program originated and was funded by the state or major foundations, or “bottom-up,” where individual entrepreneurs, researchers, or local businesses both initiated the program and provided the funding. Top-down programs struggle to identify and execute programs that are most relevant to the region. Bottom-up programs often lacked the legitimacy and/or (financial) resources to be effective. Indeed, we find that which role (e.g., originator or funder) arises locally is less relevant than the active inclusion of local and non-local parties. These conclusions on the role of program formations are of critical importance and have a notable link to program outcomes. Initiatives that are not coupled, in particular the prevalent top-down programs, lead to strategies that are on average less effective and appear to be a significant reason that TBED investment profiles that do not address the funding gap, as discussed in Section 3. As a result, these TBED’s contributions to regional economic development fail to meet their full potential. Table 1. Success Rates of Originators and Supporters of TBED Organizations 9 Section 6. Concluding Remarks TBED programs promise economic growth for regions across the U.S. Increased awareness of the success and impact of technology start-ups, perhaps best exemplified by spin-outs from universities and research labs, has sparked a perceived opportunity for investment in earlystage, high-reward technology companies7. Thus, it is not surprising that elected officials, universities, state agencies, and philanthropic organizations have collaborated to support hundreds of new TBED programs over the past two decades. Yet with such promise, several trends have emerged that may raise considerable social costs with no economic development to show for it: (1) a prevalence of top-down programs, often led by the state government, without enough coupling with local community; (2) a similar profile of funding timing for TBED’s and VC’s, rather than having TBEDs emphasizing financial support for the “valley of death” and (3) delayed failure rates for failing companies supported solely by TBED monies. To repeat a previous sentiment, we strongly support the goals of TBED programs nationally and locally. This paper summarizes the first in-depth examination of the rise of TBED’s over the past 15 years. Our concluding remarks caution that with greater resources comes responsibility: TBED program design becomes ever more critical. The type of resources provided, (early) staging or timing of investment in start-ups, and careful monitoring of companies’ progress are essential. National and state resources prudently coupled with local community demand and TBED investments promise enormous potential for sustained regional growth. 7. E. Roberts and C. Eesley (2009) Entrepreneurial Impact: The Role of MIT. Kauffman Foundation. 10 Appendix A. Data Sources Data presented in this paper was collected from a variety of sources, including: Guidestar; the Pittsburgh Technology Council; Venture Expert; Venture One; business filings on record at the State of Colorado, Indiana, and Pennsylvania; legislation and budget bills in each U.S. state; and the United States Patent and Trademark Office. These data were supplemented with secondary research, including numerous newspaper, magazine, and internet articles. We are also grateful for interviews and data provided by many TBED organizations in Denver, Indianapolis, Kansas City, and Pittsburgh.
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