Global demand and supply
drivers for wood products
Miikka Pesonen
Stora Enso Oyj
Stora Enso Group and Wood Products
In brief
Northern Europe 19%
Stora Enso
Wood Products
Western Europe 13%
employees
operating
countries
26 000 3 800
35
20
North America 1%
Central Europe 26%
Middle East & North
Africa 11%
Asia & Pacific 31%
sales
10
1.6
% share of Wood
Products sales
2
4/12/2015
Stora Enso
In the business since the 8th century
1872
1288
Falun copper mine from 8th century
#1 joint stock company (16.6.1288)
2/3 European copper in 17th century
1642
3
1998
Global demand and supply drivers for wood products
4
29/3/2016
Demand
Supply
Population
Construction
Resources
Industry
Demand
Population
Aging…
Urbanizing…
… and growing
…and focused on Asia
• Strong drivers for
housing and construction
outlook globally
• A huge strain on global
resources (energy, nonrenewables)
• Focus from maturing
Europe and North
America to dynamic East
and South Asia
5
April 11, 2016
Duncan Mayes
Demand
In numbers
Top 5 economies
(in 2010 PPP USD)
Now
2050
Population, bn
7.0
9.3
Urban, bn / %
3.6 (50)
6.0 (65)
Economy
Energy use
Cement use
Cars
Source: CEMBUREAU, United Nations, EFPL
6
29/3/2016
Now
2030
X4
X2
X2
X2
Source: Citi Investment Research and Analysis
2050
Demand
Shift has already happened
Construction growth globally
Housing starts
(USD bn in constant prices)
(million units)
16
Wood-frame
Emerging
Developed
12
(gigatons)
~ 0%
12
14
Use of concrete,
(China 60%)
37%
10
6,6
6
Non-wood
5
8
10
7
4,5
4
8
6
48%
6
63%
4
0
1
0
2012
2025
Source: Oxford Economics, Global Construction Perspectives
7
2
2
52%
2
4
3
44%
29/3/2016
0
Other*
Source: Stora Enso
* Europe, USA, Japan
China
US 1901-2000
Source: Forbes
China 2011-13
Demand
Construction sector is the key
• up to 50% of natural resources, mostly non-renewables
• 40% of all energy
• contributes 30% of global green house gas emissions
Source: UNEP
8
29/3/2016
Demand
With the current level of consumption, we need
another globe to fullfil our needs
9
29/3/2016
Supply
Resource and substitution drivers
High quality, sustainable
export source
Reduced availability (bark
beetle, conservation)
Access,
sustainability
400 m
no own wood
Expanding
plantations
Sustainability,
land use
Competing
uses for land
Numbers: millions of people
Demand centres
10
4/12/2015
Plantations for
pulp, EWP
200 m
1,400 m
1,700 m
600 m
Supply centres
Access,
cost
Cost
Wood Products industry
Wood is a solution
• Sustainable, renewable
• Low energy & capital needs of
manufacturing
• Light weight – saves in transportation,
foundations, assembly
Puukuokka,Jyväskylä, Finland
• To capitalize on these requires…
−
offering solutions, not only raw materials
−
bringing wood into building systems with
other materials
−
Dockland library, Melbourne, Australia
rebuilding the competence of how to use
wood in construction industry
Single family home, Slovakia
11
4/11/2016
Stora Enso
”Everything that’s made with fossil-based materials today
can be made from a tree tomorrow”
12
01/12/2015
Stora Enso Key Facts
Thank you!