THE END GAME OR A NEW GAME –
WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN FOR
TOBACCO CONTROL?
Ken Warner
University of Michigan School of Public Health
Prepared for the UCSF Triangulum, San Francisco,
May 26, 2016
Adults (>17 y.o.) (NHIS)
Year Current smoker
(%)
Recent
decreases in
adult
cigarette
smoking
Change
from last
year (%)
2005
20.9
0
2006
20.8
-0.5
2007
19.7
-5.3
2008
20.5
+4.1
2009
20.6
+0.5
2010
19.4
-5.8
2011
18.9
-2.6
2012
18.0
-4.8
2013
2014
2015
17.8
16.8
15.1
-1.1
-5.6
-10.1
Cigarette smoking prevalence, CO, WA, US, 2012-14
2012
2013
2014
Change
2012-14
Change
2013-14
CO
19.2%
17.7%
15.7%
-18.2%
-11.3%
WA
17.2%
16.1%
15.3%
-11.1%
-5.0%
US
19.6%
19.0%
18.1%
-7.7%
-4.7%
Legalization of recreational marijuana adopted in CO and WA in Nov. 2012. Retail sale
started January 2014 in CO and July 2014 in WA.
Sources: BRFSS
High school seniors (MTF)
Year 30-day prev.
(%)
Recent
decreases in
youth cigarette
smoking
Change from last
year (%)
2005
23.2
-7.2
2006
21.6
-6.9
2007
21.6
0
2008
20.4
-5.6
2009
20.1
-1.5
2010
19.2
-4.5
2011
18.7
-2.6
2012
17.1
-8.6
2013
2014
2015
16.3
13.6
11.4
-4.7
-16.6
-16.2
30-day Smoking Prevalence, School Children, 2006-15
25
20
15
Percent
NYTS - HS
NYTS - MS
MTF- 12th
MTF- 10th
10
MTF - 8th
5
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Year
Sources: Monitoring the Future, 2015, and National Youth Tobacco Survey, 2016