The Big Picture
Sir Bob Kerslake, Head of the Civil Service and
DCLG Permanent Secretary
Association of Directors of Adult Social Services
18 April 2012
Economic Challenge
128
124
120
11%
116
Extrapolated pre-crisis trend (OBR)
112
108
8% ..
104
100
96
92
88
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
OBR 2012 Forecast
Source: Office for Budget Responsibility, Projections of potential output slide 3.4
2
Spending Challenge
3
Savings and Growth
Implementation of the Government’s fiscal consolidation plan
is on course:
• by end 2011-12, 40% of the annual fiscal consolidation planned
for the Spending Review 2010 period achieved, with 30% of the
spending and two-thirds of the tax consolidation in place;
• by end April 2012, measures implemented to deliver almost threequarters of the total savings expected from reforms to the welfare
system; and
• the majority of tax consolidation measures will have been
legislated by 6 April 2012.
4
Locally Driven Economic Growth
Tools
•
•
•
•
Growing Places Fund
National Planning Policy
Framework
Housing Strategy
Regional Growth Fund
Partnership
•
•
•
100% of England covered by
LEPs
Enterprise Zones
City Deals
Incentives
•
•
•
New Homes Bonus
Localisation of Business Rates
Tax Increment Financing
5
Public Service Reform
Open Public Services White Paper
2011
• Access to best possible public
services
• Choice and control
Open Public Services Paper 2012
• Major reforms of our services
• First progress report on our reforms
across public services
• Right to choose
• Greater Choice
• Choice Champions
Social care and other services
Social care personal budget:
•Setting an ambition that councils will
provide all those who are eligible for
adult social care with access to a
personal budget, preferably as a direct
payment by 2013
SEN personal budget:
•Giving the option of a personal budget
to all families with children with a
statement of Special Educational Need a
new Education, Health and Care Plan by
2014
6
Health Reform
The case for change
• Rising demand and
treatment costs
• Service improvement
• Finances
Health & Social Care Act
• Clinically led
commissioning
• Support for innovative
services
• Greater voice for patients
•Local and national
accountability
•New public health system
7
Care and Support Reform
Law
Commission
Report
_________
May 2011
Social Care
Vision
_________
Nov 2010
Dept. of Health
Caring for our
future engagement
________
Sept - Dec
2011
Dilnot
Commission
Report
__________
July 2011
Care and
Support
White Paper
_________
spring 2012
Legislation
8
Health & Wellbeing Boards and
the role for Local Authorities
• Massive opportunity for local government to take a lead in delivering
more integration between Health, Adult Social Care and other services
(including Housing)
• The level of take-up in the early implementer network -138 of 152 top
tier authorities – shows the appetite in local government to take on a
strengthened leadership role
• Local Authorities have a pivotal role in what is an opportunity for
significant transformational change in your areas – some areas are
running fast with this – learn from them
• You are best placed as Local Leaders and Champions
• Your role as Chair of the Health and Wellbeing Board is crucial and
deliberate
9
10
2031/32
2030/31
2029/30
Children's Services
2028/29
2027/28
2026/27
2025/26
2024/25
2023/24
2022/23
2021/22
Adults Social Care
2020/21
2019/20
2018/19
2017/18
2016/17
2015/16
2014/15
2013/14
2012/13
2011/12
2010/11
£ Millions
Barnet’s Graph of Doom
Net budget
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
-
Social Policy & Welfare Reform
•
Universal Credit
•
Benefits Cap
•
Troubled Families
•
Riots Communities &
Victims Panel
•
Young People
11
Community Budgets
Community Rights
Community Budgets
Community Rights
Right to Bid
Whole Place
• Cheshire West and Chester
• Essex
• Greater Manchester
The “tri-boroughs”
Neighbourhood
• Gives communities a fair chance to bid to
take over land and buildings that are
important to them
Right to Challenge
• Gives community groups with ideas on
how to run local services more effectively
the right to challenge a local council to
tender the service out
• Queens Park - Westminster
• Ilfracombe - North Devon
• Little Horton - Bradford
Neighbourhood Planning
• Sherwood - Tunbridge Wells
• Gives neighbourhoods greater influence in
• Haverhill - Suffolk
deciding where facilities should be and the
• Norbiton - Kingston
development they want locally. Plans
• Poplar - Tower Hamlets
subject to a referendum.
• Balsall Heath, Shard End, Castle Vale Birmingham
• Cowgate, Kenton Bar, Montagu - Newcastle
• White City - Hammersmith & Fulham
12
The size and shape of the Civil
Service is changing significantly
1,200
1944: 1.16m
Annual FTE series
(1918-1998)
1,100
(highest ever)
Quarterly FTE series
(1999 Q1 - 2011 Q2)
1,000
2011 Q4: 435,000
(lowest since WWII)
Lowest FTE
post-WWII
900
2005 Q2: 536,000
FTE employment (‘000s)
1977: 746,000
(HM Courts Service transfer in)
(highest in past 50 years)
800
1999 Q1: 478,000
(start of quarterly time-series)
700
600
500
400
1918: 221,000
300
200
100
2010
2007
2004
2001
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
1980
1977
1974
1971
1968
1965
1962
1959
1956
1953
1950
1947
1944
1941
1938
1935
1932
1929
1926
1923
1920
1917
1914
1911
1908
1905
1902
0
Sources: 1902 to 1990 – Mandate and Departmental Returns (Civil Service Statistics); 1991 to 1998 – ONS Public Sector Employment Statistics
(PSES); 1999 to date – ONS Quarterly Public Sector Employment Statistics (QPSES)
13
Conclusions
• Local Government is recognised as delivering on an
exceptionally tough spending settlement
• Demonstrating the localist approach is working on the
big issues is critical
• We will need to achieve a new level of collaborative
and creative thinking to get through the next spending
review
14