CDF Formulation for Solving an Optimal Reinsurance Problem ∗ Chengguo Weng, and Shengchao Zhuang Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, N2L 3G1, Canada July 28, 2015 Abstract An innovative cumulative distribution function (CDF) based method is proposed for deriving optimal reinsurance contracts for an insurer to maximize its survival probability. The optimal reinsurance model is a non-convex constrained stochastic optimization problem, and the CDF based method transforms it into a linear problem of determining an optimal CDF over a corresponding feasible set. Compared to the existing literature, our proposed CDF formulation provides a more transparent derivation of the optimal solutions, and more interestingly, it enables us to solve a further complex model with an extra background risk. Key Words: CDF formulation, Lagrangian dual method, optimal reinsurance, survival prob- ability maximization, background risk. ∗ Corresponding author. Tel: +001(519)888-4567 ext. 31132. Email: Weng ([email protected]), Zhuang ([email protected]). 1 Model Setup 1.1 Preliminaries Let (Ω, F, P) be a probability space, where all the random variables in this paper are dened. We consider a constrained non-convex stochastic optimal decision problem from an insurance context. The problem is formulated from the perspective of an insurance company (insurer). W and is subject to a loss X , which is a nonnegative random variable with a support of [0, M ] for some M ∈ (0, ∞]. For the case of M = ∞, the support of X is interpreted as [0, ∞), and throughout the paper, we assume E[X] < ∞. We assume that the insurer has an initial capital of The stochastic optimization problem considered in the paper is to determine an optimal reinsurance purchase strategy against the risk X for the insurer to maximize its survival prob- r(X) so that measurable function and so is r . In their loss that is ceded to a reinsurer, and r(X) ability. Mathematically, it is to nd an optimal partition on X = f (X) + r(X), where economic meanings, f (X) f : [0, M ] → [0, M ] is a represents the portion of X into f (X) and is the residual loss retained by the insurer. In the context of optimal reinsurance, the ceded loss function f is often restricted to the set C as given below for the solution (Cui, et al., 2013; Zheng, et al., 2015): C := f (·) : 0 6 f (x) 6 x and r(x) := x − f (x) is non-decreasing The non-decreasing assumption on the retained loss function hazard risk. If the retained function r r ∀ x ∈ [0, M ] . (1) is imposed to reduce the moral is not non-decreasing, the insurer may encourage the policyholders to claim more so as to reduce its own retained loss but increase the ceded loss on the reinsurer. In exchange for covering partial risk for the insurer, the reinsurer charges a premium on the insurer as compensation. Generally, this premium is always positive, and computed according to a certain premium principle Π so that the reinsurance premium is given by Π(f (X)). In our work, we consider the expected value principle and compute the reinsurance premium by Π(f (X)) = (1 + ρ)E[f (X)], 1.2 where ρ>0 is the loading factor. Optimal Reinsurance Model in Absence of Background Risk From the preceding subsection, the insurer's net wealth in the presence of a reinsurance is given by T := W − r(X) − (1 + ρ)E[f (X)], (2) and the insurer is subject to a survival probability of P(W − r(X) − (1 + ρ)E[f (X)] > 0). Thus, with the reinsurance premium constrained on a level of π > 0, the optimal reinsurance problem of maximizing the above survival probability is equivalent to the following one: 2 Problem 1.1 max P W − r(X) − π > 0 , s.t. (1 + ρ)E[f (X)] = π, f ∈C (3) where π is a reinsurance premium budget satisfying 0 < π ≤ (1 + ρ)E[X]. The research of optimal reinsurance has remained a fascinating area since the seminar papers Borch (1960) and Arrow (1963), where explicit solutions were derived for minimizing the variance of the insurer's retained loss (or equivalently the variance of the expected utility of its terminal wealth premium of E[f (X)]. T T in (2)) and maximizing respectively, subject to a given net reinsurance These two classic results have been extended in a number of important directions. Just to name a few, Gajek and Zagrodny (2000) and Kaluszka (2001) generalized Borch's result by considering the standard deviation premium principle and a class of general premium principles, respectively. Young (1999) generalized Arrow's result by assuming Wang's premium principle. Among the recent studies on optimal reinsurance, risk measures including VaR and CVaR have been extensively used; see, for instance, Cai, et al. (2008), Balbás, et al., (2009), Tan, et al. (2009), Tan, et al. (2011), Cheung (2010), Chi and Tan (2013), Asimit, et al. (2013), Chi and Weng (2013), Cheung, et al. (2014). 1.3 Optimal Reinsurance Model in Presence of Background Risk In the insurance practice, there are some risks which are not insurable and can potentially occur with other insurable risks. Moreover, the administration fee on the insurer to settle insurance claims is often not fully deterministic, and not insured. aggregate of these risks which occur along with the underlying risk model the risk by a nonnegative random variable We generally refer to the X as background risk, and Y. The optimal decision problems with background risk in an insurance context have been intensively studied, but most of these are within a utility maximization framework. For example, Gollier (1996) considered the optimal insurance purchase strategy by maximizing the expected utility of a policyholder. For another example, Dana and Scarsini (2007) characterized the optimal risk sharing strategy between two parties, both being expected utility maximizers. In the literature, it is common to assume that the background risk is statistically independent of the insurable risk X, because such assumption leads to much more tractable models and it works as good approximation in the presence of week dependence. For example, Mahul (2000), Gollier and Pratt (1996), Courbage et al. (2007), and Schlesinger (2013). Taking the background risk into account, we compute the terminal net wealth of the insurer as W − r(X) − Y − (1 + ρ)E[f (X)], and accordingly the optimal reinsurance model of maximizing the survival probability goes as follows: 3 Problem 1.2 max P W − r(X) − Y − π > 0 , s.t. (1 + ρ)E[f (X)] = π. f ∈C 1.4 (4) Some Remarks Problem 1.1 has been studied by Gajek and Zagrodny (2004) and analytical optimal solutions have been derived. However, their results apply only when the reinsurance premium budget π is small enough and they fail to clearly outline the range of the budget for their results to apply. Moreover, their approach involves a sophisticated application of the Neyman Pearson Lemma and is mathematically abstruse. Further, their method can not be readily used to solve Problem 1.2 where the background risk is additionally considered. For these reasons, in the present paper, we propose an innovative CDF based method to solve the above two problems. Our CDF based method rst transforms each of them into a problem of determining an optimal CDF over a corresponding feasible set, and then combines with a Lagrangian dual method to derive the optimal solutions in a transparent way. The idea behind our method is to equivalently reformulate each of the original two problems into a linear functional optimization problem so as to facilitate the application of a pointwise optimization procedure. Our CDF based method enables us to derive the optimal solutions of Problem 1.1 for any premium budget π over the whole range of (0, (1 + ρ)E[X]]. More signicantly, the transparency of the method enables us to derive analytical optimal reinsurance contracts in the presence of independent background risk, i.e., the solutions of Problem 1.2, which is otherwise non-tractable. As one can discover later, our procedure of deriving the optimal solutions can be applied in parallel if the objective function in Problem 1.1 (or Problem 1.2) were changed to P W − r(X) − π > A (or P W − r(X) − Y − π > A ) for some some constant A, which represents the net wealth the insurer targets to achieve. Such an optimal decision problem is typically called goal-reaching model, which was proposed by Kulldor (1993), and studied extensively in the literature, e.g., Browne (1999, 2000). When A = 0, the goal-reaching model reduces to the survival probability maximization model. The rest of the paper proceeds as follows. Section 2 develops the CDF formulation and some preliminary results from the Lagrangian dual method. Sections 3 and 4 solve Problems 1.1 and 1.2, respectively. Section 5 concludes the paper. 2 CDF Formulation V (F ) of CDF F is non-decreasing (nonincreasing) in F , we mean that V (F1 ) ≥ V (F2 ) if F1 (x) ≥ F2 (x) (correspondingly F1 (x) ≤ F2 (x)), x ≥ 0. For a given distribution F of a nonnegative random variable, we dene its −1 (y) := inf z ∈ R+ : F (z) ≥ y . inverse as F Hereafter, when it is stated that a functional 4 Denote R := {r(·) : r(x) ≡ x − f (x) ∀x ∈ [0, M ], f ∈ C}. Then, it follows from (1) that R = r(·) : r(0) = 0, 0 6 r(x) 6 x ∀x ∈ [0, M ], r(x) is non-decreasing on [0, M ] , and thus, Problem 1.1 can be equivalently rewritten, in terms of retained loss function r, as follows: max P r(X) ≤ W − π , s.t. E[r(X)] = π e, r∈R where π e := E[X] − π/(1 + ρ) and 0 ≤ π e < E[X] for 0 < π ≤ (1 + ρ)E[X]. (5) From the formulation of (5), a necessary condition to have a nonempty feasible set for (5) is given by and a trivial solution in the case of π e = E[X] is given by 0≤π e ≤ E[X], r(x) = x, x ∈ [0, M ]. We can similarly rewrite Problem 1.2, in terms of retained loss functions, as follows: max P r(X) + Y ≤ W − π , s.t. E[r(X)] = π e. r∈R Once a solution, say r∗ , is obtained for (5) (or (6)), then (6) f ∗ (x) := x − r∗ (x), x ∈ [0, M ], is a solution to Problem 1.1 (correspondingly Problem 1.2). Thus, we shall focus on studying (5) and (6) for optimal solutions. The following two assumptions will be used in the rest of the paper. Both the left and right derivatives of the CDF FX (x) of X exist and are strictly positive over [0, M ]. Assumption 2.1 Assumption 2.2 independent of X . Y has a non-increasing probability density function gY (·), and is statistically (a) Assumption 2.1 allows the random variable X to have a probability mass of p at 0, which is a common model for an insurance loss. Assumption 2.1 is certainly satised if X has a piecewise continuous density function over (0, M ]. The assumption also implies that FX is continuous and strictly increasing over [0, M ]. (b) Assumption 2.1 also implies, by the Inverse Function Theorem, that both the left and right derivatives of FX−1 exist and are strictly positive, which we respectively denote by Remark 1 (FX−1 )0− (u) and (FX−1 )0+ (u), u ∈ (0, 1). (c) Furthermore, it is worth noting that a great number of typical distributions for insurance loss modelling satisfy Assumption 2.2, such as Pareto distribution, exponential distribution and so on. 5 Notably, (6) reduces to (5) if we set Y = 0 almost surely. Nevertheless, our CDF method for solving (6) relies on Assumption 2.2, whereas the condition of Y =0 almost surely contradicts to Assumption 2.2. Therefore, the solution of (5) can not be directly retrieved from that of (6). We need to analyze both problems separately. To solve (5) and (6), we reformulate each of them into a problem of identifying an optimal CDF over a feasible set, and recover the optimal ceded loss functions for the original problems (5) and (6) from those identied optimal CDF's via Lemma 2.2 in the sequel. To proceed, we dene n F ∗ := F (·) : F (·) is the CDF of o r(X), r ∈ R , and F ∗∗ n := F (·) : F (·) is a CDF with The equivalence between these two sets of Lemma 2.1 o F (t) ≥ FX (t) ∀ 0 ≤ t ≤ M . F∗ and F ∗∗ (7) is shown in Lemma 2.1 below. Assume that Assumption 2.1 holds, then F ∗ = F ∗∗ . r ∈ R, r(x) ≤ x ∀ x ∈ [0, M ] and thus we must have P(r(X) ≤ x) ≥ FX (x) ∀ x ∈ [0, M ]. This means F ∗ ⊆ F ∗∗ . On the other hand, for any Fe ∈ F ∗∗ , we dene re(s) = Fe−1 (FX (s)) for s ∈ [0, M ] to get 0 ≤ re(s) ≤ s, where the second e(x) ≥ FX (x) ∀ x ∈ [0, M ]. Moreover, Since FX is inequality follows from the fact that F continuous and strictly increasing over [0, M ] due to Assumption 2.1, for any t ∈ [0, M ], there e(t) = FX (y). Hence, we obtain P re(X) ≤ t = P Fe−1 (FX (X)) ≤ exists y ∈ [0, M ] such that F t = P FX (X) ≤ Fe(t) = P FX (X) ≤ FX (y) = P(X ≤ y) = Fe(t) by Assumption 2.1 again. e ∈ F ∗ , and thus, F ∗ ⊆ F ∗∗ . This means that F Proof. On one hand, for every It is obvious that the reinsurance premium budget constraint E[r(X)] = π e in problems (5) and (6) is equivalent to M Z 0 where Fr 1 − Fr (t) dt = π e, r(X). Moreover, the objective in (5) is Fr (W − π), which also of r(X). Such observation motivates us to consider the following denotes the CDF of merely depends on the CDF CDF formulation ( max F ∈F ∗∗ s.t. U0 (F ) := F (W − π), RM 1 − F (t) dt = π e. 0 (8) For (6) where the background risk is considered, we apply Assumption 2.2 to rewrite its objective function as follows Z W −π P r(X) ≤ W − π − s dFY (s) P r(X) + Y ≤ W − π = 0 6 Z W −π P r(X) ≤ t gY (W − π − t)dt. = 0 Z W −π Fr (t)gY (W − π − t)dt, = 0 which is a linear functional of Fr . Accordingly, regarding (6), we propose the following CDF formulation: ( max F ∈F ∗∗ s.t. R W −π U1 (F ) := 0 F (t)gY (W − π − t)dt, RM 1 − F (t) dt = π e. 0 (9) For presentation convenience, we refer to (5) and (6) as retained loss function (RLF) formulation" in contrast to the term of CDF formulation" for (8) and (9). The equivalence between the RLF formulation and CDF formulation is given in Lemma 2.2 below. An element F ∗ ∈ F ∗∗ solves (8) (or (9)) if and only if r∗ , dened by r∗ (x) = (F ∗ )−1 (FX (x)) for x ∈ [0, M ], solves (5) (correspondingly (6)). Lemma 2.2 Proof. We only show the relationship between (9) and (6) as the result can be similarly proved for (8) and (5). We achieve the proof by contradiction. We rst consider the if part. Assume that Fb ∈ F ∗ ∈ F ∗∗ is not an optimal solution to (9), i.e., there exists another element, say −1 U1 (Fb) > U1 (F ∗ ). Then, we dene rb(x) = (Fb) (FX (x)), ∀x ∈ [0, M ], to F ∗∗ , such that get P rb(X) + Y ≤ W − π = U1 (Fb) > U1 (F ∗ ) = P r∗ (X) + Y ≤ W − π , which means that r∗ can not be a solution to (6). Thus, if r∗ solves (6), then F∗ must solve (9). To show the only if" part, we assume that exists another element rb ∈ R r∗ as given is not a solution to (6) so that there such that P(b r(X) + Y ≤ W − π) > P(r∗ (X) + Y ≤ W − π). As we have already seen in the proof of Lemma 2.1, last display further implies Therefore, if F∗ solves (9), F∗ is the CDF of U1 (F ∗ ), which means that U1 (Fb) > ∗ then r must be a solution to (6). r∗ (X), and thus, the F ∗ is not a solution to (9). According to Lemma 2.2, once we solve the CDF formulation (equations (8) or ∗ ∈ F ∗∗ , we can construct a solution r ∗ to the RLF (9)) and obtain an optimal solution F formulation (equation (5) or (6) correspondingly) by r∗ (x) = (F ∗ )−1 (FX (x)) for x ∈ [0, M ] and obtain an optimal ceded loss function f ∗ (x) = x − r∗ (x), x ∈ [0, M ]. Remark 2 7 In view that the objectives and constraints in (8) and (9) are all linear functionals of the F decision variable and the feasible set F ∗∗ is convex, we exploit the Lagrangian dual method to solve both problems. This entails introducing a Lagrangian multiplier λ and considering the following auxiliary problem max F ∈F ∗∗ Z V0 (λ, F ) := F (W − π) + λ M 0 1 − F (t) dt − π e (10) for (8), and another auxiliary problem W −π Z max F ∈F ∗∗ F (t)gY (W − π − t)dt + λ V1 (λ, F ) := Z 0 0 for (9). Once (10) (or (11)) is solved with an optimal solution ∗ determine λ ∈R by solving M R1 0 (1 − Fλ∗ (t))dt = π e. 1 − F (t) dt − π e Fλ (·) for each Then, we can show that (11) λ ∈ R, one can F ∗ := Fλ∗ is an optimal solution to (8) (or (9)) as in Lemma 2.3 below. Assume that for every λ ∈ R, Fλ (·) solves (10) (or (11)) and there exists a RM ∈ R satisfying 0 (1 − Fλ∗ (t))dt = π e. Then, F ∗ := Fλ∗ solves (8) (or (9) corre- Lemma 2.3 constant spondingly). λ∗ Proof. We generally denote the objective in (8) (or (9)) by U (F ), and let u(e π) denotes its optimal value. Then, it follows u(e π) = max U (F ) = F ∈F ∗∗ RM 0 (1−F (t))dt=e π ≤ max∗∗ U (F ) + λ F ∈F max 0 ∗ Z 0 U (F ) + λ F ∈F ∗∗ RM Z 0 (1−F (t))dt=e π M ∗ M (1 − F (t))dt − π e (1 − F (t))dt − π e = U (F ∗ ) ≤ u(e π ), which implies that 3 F∗ is optimal to (8) (or (9)). Solutions to Problem 1.1 In this section, we study the optimal solutions when there is no background risk, i.e. the −π ≥ M M = ∞, only solutions to Problem 1.1. We analyze the solutions in two scenarios separately (W W − π < M ), depending on the relative magnitude of W − π and M . When the case of W − π < M is possible. We rst consider the case with W − π ≥ M , where for any feasible f ∈ C we have P(W − r(X) − π > 0) ≥ F (r(X) < M ) ≥ FX (M ) = 1. Therefore, every element in the feasible set of and Problem 1.1 satisfying the constraint is a solution. We summarize this result in Theorem 3.1 below. 8 Assume that Assumption 2.1 and W −π ≥ M hold. Then, any f ∗ ∈ C satisfying (1 + ρ)E[f ∗ (X)] = π is an optimal ceded loss function to Problem 1.1. Theorem 3.1 W − π < M , which is automatically satised for M = ∞, i.e., X has an unbounded support of [0, ∞). According to the analysis in the preceding In the rest of the section, we assume section, we can solve the CDF formulation (8) and apply Lemma 2.2 to get the optimal retained loss function and the optimal ceded loss function. By virtue of Lemma 2.3, we can rst analyze the solution of (10) for each λ. To this end, we note that F (W − π) ∈ [FX (W − π), 1] for every F ∈ F ∗∗ and consider the following sub-problems max F ∈F ∗∗ V0 (λ, F ) := u + λ M Z 0 1 − F (t) dt − π e , s.t. F (W − π) = u, (12) ∗ and get optimal u ∈ [FX (W − π), 1]. If we could derive an optimal solution Fλ,u ∗ ∗ ∗ value ξ(u) := V0 (λ, Fλ,u ) of (12) for each u ∈∈ [FX (W − π), 1], then Fλ := Fλ,u∗ is an optimal indexed by solution to (10), where u∗ = argmax ξ(u). u∈[FX (W −π),1] q = FX−1 (u) for u ∈ [FX (W − π), 1]. Since W − π > 0 and FX (x) is continuous and strictly increasing on [0, M ] according to Assumption 2.1, we have u = FX (q) and q ∈ [W − π, M ]. Let Thus, u∗ = FX (q ∗ ) with q ∗ = argmin ξ(FX (q)). q∈[W −π,M ] In the subsequent analysis, we follow such a procedure to solve (10) for respectively. Its solution for λ<0 λ=0 and λ > 0, is not relevant when we invoke Lemma 2.3 for the optimal CDF of (8) and thus omitted. Case 3.1 λ = 0. In this case, the objective in (12) is independent of the solution to (12) Case 3.2 Fλ∗ can be any F ∈ F ∗∗ F and ξ(u) = u, which satises and thus, F (W − π) = 1. (13) λ > 0. V0 (λ, F ) is non-increasing in F , and the pointwise smallest CDF F ∈ F ∗∗ which F (W − π) = u solves (12). Therefore, from the denition of F ∗∗ in (7), a solution to In this case, satises (12) is given by F (t), X ∗ Fλ,u (t) = u, F (t), X if 0 ≤ t < W − π, if W − π ≤ t < FX−1 (u), if FX−1 (u) ≤ t ≤ M, 9 (14) and as a consequence, ∗ ) ξ(u) = V0 (λ, Fr(X),u Z W −π Z =u+λ (1 − FX (t))dt + λ −1 FX (u) Z (1 − u)dt + λ W −π 0 By taking the left derivative of 0 ξ− (u) ξ(u), hZ M −1 FX (u) (1 − FX (t))dt − λe π. we obtain −1 FX (u) i (−1)dt + (FX−1 )0− (u)(1 − FX (FX−1 (u)) W −π h i −1 0 = − λ(FX )− (u) 1 − FX (FX−1 (u)) h 1 + λ(W − π) i =λ − FX−1 (u) , u ∈ [FX (W − π), 1] λ =1 + λ We can similarly derive its right derivative, and indeed, it is the same as its left derivative obtained h in the above. This imeans that ξ(u) is dierentiable over [FX (W − π), 1) with −π) − FX−1 (u) , which is decreasing in u. This further implies that ξ(u) is a ξ 0 (u) = λ 1+λ(W λ concave function of u and attains its maximum at 1 + λ(W − π) 1 + λ(W − π) ∗ u = max FX (W − π), FX = FX . λ λ Thus, one solution to (10) is given by ∗ Fλ∗ = Fλ,u ∗ as dened in (14). With the analysis in the above Cases 3.1 and 3.2, we readily apply Lemma 2.3 to analyze the solutions to the CDF formulation (8). Denote W −π Z 1 − FX (t) dt. π̄0 = (15) 0 Then, depending on the magnitude of π e relative to π̄0 , the optimal solution of (8) can be obtained as summarized in Proposition 3.1 below. Proposition 3.1 (a) If 0≤π e ≤ π̄0 , Assume that Assumption 2.1 and W − π < M hold. then one optimal CDF to (8) is given by F ∗ (t) = where (b) If FX (t), if 0 ≤ t < t0 , 1, if t0 ≤ t ≤ M, RM t0 ∈ [0, W − π] is such that 0 1 − F ∗ (t) dt = π e. π̄0 < π e < E[X], then one CDF to (8) is given by F (t), if 0 ≤ t < W − π, X F ∗ (t) = FX (t0 ), if W − π ≤ t < t0 , F (t), if t ≤ t ≤ M, 0 X 10 (16) t0 ∈ [W − π, M ] where Proof. is such that RM 0 1 − F ∗ (t) dt = π e. π b ∈ [0, π̄0 ], there obviously exists RM satisfy 1 − F ∗ (t) dt = π e, and F ∗ 0 (a) Given dened in (16) to a constant t0 ∈ [0, W − π] for F ∗ (t) satises the condition (13). Therefore, ∗ by Lemma 2.3, F as given by (16) is one solution to (8). (b) For a ∈ [W − π, M ], dene FX (t), Fa (t) := FX (a), F (t), X if 0 ≤ t < W − π, if W − π ≤ t < a, if a ≤ t ≤ M, RM q(a) := 0 1 − Fa (t) dt. Obviously, q(a) is a continuous and non-increasing function of a with q(W − π) = E[X] and q(M ) = π̄0 . Therefore, for any π e ∈ (π̄0 , E[X]), there exists t0 ∈ (W − π, M ] such that q(t0 ) = π e which means Ft0 solves (10) for t0 = [1 + λ(W − π)]/λ, i.e., λ = 1/[t0 − (W − π)], as previously shown in Case 3.2. Thus, the desired result follows from Lemma 2.3. and The optimal ceded loss functions for the case of W −π < M can be consequently obtained by combining Proposition 3.1 and Lemma 2.2, and we summarize the results in Theorem 3.2 below. Theorem 3.2 (a) If Assume that Assumption 2.1 and W − π < M hold. (1 + ρ)(E[X] − π̄0 ) ≤ π ≤ (1 + ρ)E[X], then one optimal cede loss function to Problem 1.1 is given by f ∗ (t) = where (b) If 0, if 0 ≤ t < t0 , t − t , 0 if t0 ≤ t ≤ M, t0 is such that (1 + ρ)E[f ∗ (X)] = π . 0 < π < (1 + ρ)(E[X] − π̄0 ), then one optimal ceded loss function to Problem 1.1 is given by 0, f ∗ (t) = t − (W − π), 0, where t0 Proof. is such that 0 ≤ t < W − π, if W − π ≤ t < t0 , if t0 ≤ t ≤ M, (1 + ρ)E[f ∗ (X)] = π . π e = E[X] − π/(1 + ρ), the conditions on π given in both parts are equivalent to terms of π e in Proposition 3.1 respectively, whereby the desired results follow from Since those two in if 11 Proposition 3.1 and Lemma 2.2. Part (b) of Theorem 3.2 indicates that an truncated stop-loss reinsurance is optimal for reinsurance premium budget smaller than (1 + ρ)(E[X] − π̄). The optimality of truncated stop-loss reinsurance has been established in the Corollary 1 of Gajek and Zagrodny (2004) for the same Problem 1.1. However, as we have commented in section 1.4, their derivation of the solution involves a complicated application of Neyman Pearson Lemma, and much more mathematically abstruse than our CDF method. Furthermore, Gajek and Zagrodny (2004) fail to identify the range of premium budget π for such a solution as clearly as we do in Theorem 3.2. They also fail to discover the optimality of a stop-loss reinsurance for the case of large premium budget as stipulated in part (a) of Theorem 3.2. Remark 3 4 Solutions to Problem 1.2 In this section, we study the optimal solutions when the insurer has a background risk, i.e., the solutions of Problem 1.2 or equivalently (6). Based on our analysis in section 2, we need to solve (9) and apply Lemma 2.2 to get the optimal ceded loss functions. To solve (9), we rst investigate the solutions of (11) and consequently invoke Lemma 2.3 for optimal reinsurance contracts. Similar to Section 3, the analysis is divided into two cases of W −π ≥ M and W − π < M. 4.1 W − π ≥ M. Assume In this case, we can rewrite the objective function in (11) as follows M Z V (λ, F ) = 0 h i F (t) gY (W − π − t) − λ dt + 1 − FY (W − π − M ) + λ(M − π e). Hence, (11) reduces to Z M max F ∈F ∗∗ 0 h i F (t) gY (W − π − t) − λ dt + 1 − FY (W − π − M ) + λ(M − π e), (17) of which one optimal solution follows from (7) as follows Fλ∗ (t) = FX (t), any constant, 1, provided that Fλ∗ if 0 ≤ t ≤ M and gY (W − π − t) − λ < 0, if 0 ≤ t ≤ M and gY (W − π − t) − λ = 0, if 0 ≤ t ≤ M and gY (W − π − t) − λ > 0, is an appropriate CDF in (18) F ∗∗ . With an aid of Assumption 2.2 and Lemma 2.3, we can obtain a solution to (9) as given in Proposition 4.1 below. 12 Suppose that Assumptions 2.1 and 2.2 hold and W − π ≥ M is satised. Then, one optimal solution to (9) is given by Proposition 4.1 F ∗ (t) = where t0 is such that Proof. For R t0 0 a ∈ [0, M ], FX (t), if 0 ≤ t < t0 , 1, if t0 ≤ t ≤ M, (19) [1 − F ∗ (t)]dt = π e. we dene F (t), X Fa (t) := 1, if 0 ≤ t < a, if a ≤ t ≤ M, RM q(a) := 0 1 − Fa (t) dt. Obviously, q(a) is a continuous and non-decreasing function of a with q(0) = 0 and q(M ) = E[X]. Thus, for any π e ∈ [0, E[X]), we can nd t0 such that ∗ q(t0 ) = π e. Let λ = gY (W − π − t0 ). Then, by virtue of Lemma 2.3, F ∗ given in (19) solves (9) ∗ if we could show that it is a solution to (17) for λ = λ . Indeed, since gY (W − π − t) is a non∗ ∗ decreasing function of t, we have gY (W −π−t)−λ ≤ 0 for t ∈ [0, t0 ) and gY (W −π−t)−λ ≥ 0 ∗ ∗ for t ∈ (t0 , M ], whereby it follows from (18) that F is a solution to (17) for λ = λ . Thus, the proof is complete. and By invoking Lemma 2.2, we can derive an optimal ceded loss function to solve Problem 1.2. Assume that Assumptions 2.1 and 2.2 hold and W − π ≥ M is satised. One optimal solution to Problem 1.2 is given by Theorem 4.1 0, ∗ f (x) = x − t0 , if 0 ≤ x < t0 , if t0 ≤ x ≤ M, (20) where t0 is determined by (1 + ρ)E[f ∗ (X)] = π. Proof. 4.2 It is a direct consequence of Proposition 4.1 and Lemma 2.2. Assume W − π < M. In this case, the objective function in (11) can be rewritten as follows Z V1 (λ, F ) = W −π Z h i F (t) gY (W − π − t) − λ dt − λ M W −π 0 13 F (t)dt + λ(M − π e). (21) We follow the same procedure as applied in Section 3 to solve (11). [FX (W − π), 1] for every F ∈ Because F (W − π) ∈ F ∗∗ , we consider the following sub-problems max F ∈F ∗∗ V1 (λ, F ), s.t. F (W − π) = u, (22) ∗ and optimal value u ∈ [FX (W − π), 1]. If we could derive an optimal solution Fλ,u ∗ ) of (22) for each for each u ∈∈ [F (W − π), 1], then F ∗ := F ∗ η(u) := V1 (λ, Fλ,u X λ λ,u∗ with ∗ u = argmax η(u) is an optimal solution to (11). indexed by u∈[FX (W −π),1] We analyze the solutions of (22) for 0 < λ ≤ gY ((W − π)− ), and gY ((W − λ, π)− ) respectively, in three dierent ranges: ≤λ≤ gY (0+ ). The case of λ> λ = 0, gY (0+ ) is not relevant in order to apply Lemma 2.3 for optimal CDF of (9) and thus omitted. Case 4.1 λ = 0. R W −π V1 (λ, F ) = 0 F (t)gY (W − π − t)dt, Fλ∗ (t) = 1, t ∈ [0, M ], is an optimal solution to (11). From (21), in this case, F. Therefore, Case 4.2 which is non-decreasing in 0 < λ ≤ gY ((W − π)− ). In this case, gY (W − π − t) ≥ λ for t ∈ [0, W − π]. Therefore, by virtue of (21), a solution to (22) is given by ∗ (t) = Fλ,u which, along with the condition u, if 0 ≤ t < FX−1 (u), F (t), X if FX−1 (u) ≤ t ≤ M, u ∈ [FX (W − π), 1], ∗ ) η(u) := V1 (λ, Fλ,u Z W −π h Z i = u gY (W − π − t) − λ dt − λ further implies −1 FX (u) Z udt − λ W −π 0 We compute the left derivative of 0 (u) = η− W −π Z h η(u) M −1 FX (u) FX (t)dt + λ(M − π e). as follows "Z i gY (W − π − t) − λ dt − λ −1 FX (u) W −π 0 # dt + u · (FX−1 )0− (u) λFX (FX−1 (u))(FX−1 )0− (u) + h F (W − π) i Y =λ − FX−1 (u) , u ∈ (FX (W − π), 1). λ We can similarly derive its right derivative, and indeed, it is the same as the left derivative we just obtained. Thus, FX−1 (u) , which [FX (W − π], 1] η(u) is dierentiable over u ∈ (FX (W − π), 1) with η 0 (u) = λ η(u) is a concave and attains its maximum over [FX (W − π), 1] at FY (W − π) ∗ , 1 . u = min max FX (W − π), FX λ is decreasing in u. This implies that 14 FY (W −π) λ function for − u ∈ We further note that Z W −π W −π Z gY (y)dy ≥ FY (W − π) = gY ((W − π)− )dy = (W − π)gY ((W − π)− ), 0 0 FY (W − π)/λ ≥ W − π for 0 < λ ≤ gY ((W − π)− ). This implies FY (W − π) FX (W − π) ∗ u = min FX , 1 = FX min , M , λ λ and thus, and ∗ Fλ∗ (t) = Fλ,u ∗ (t) = FX min FX (W −π) , M , λ if F (t), X if Notably, in the case of Case 4.3 M ≤ FX (W − π)/λ, Fλ∗ (t) = 1 for −π) 0 ≤ t < min FX (W , M , λ −π) min FX (W , M ≤ t ≤ M. λ t ∈ [0, M ]. gY ((W − π)− ) ≤ λ ≤ gY (0+ ). t0 ∈ [0, W − π] such that gY (W − π − t) − λ ≤ 0 for t ∈ [0, t0 ) and gY (W − π − t) − λ ≥ 0 for t ∈ (t0 , W − π], where [0, t0 ) = ∅ for t0 = 0. Hence, in view of (21) and the fact that F (t) ≥ FX (t), ∀t ∈ [0, M ] and F (W − π) = u for every feasible F in (22), a In this case, there exists solution to (22) is given by F (t), X ∗ (t) = u, Fλ,u F (t), X if 0 ≤ t < t0 , if t0 ≤ t < FX−1 (u), if FX−1 (u) ≤ t ≤ M. Accordingly, ∗ ) η(u) := V1 (λ, Fλ,u Z t0 Z h i = FX (t) gY (W − π − t) − λ dt + 0 h i u gY (W − π − t) − λ dt t0 Z −λ W −π −1 FX (u) Z udt − λ W −π M −1 FX (u) FX (t)dt + λ(M − π e). Similarly to the previous case, we respectively consider the left and right derivatives of and nd that they coincide for u ∈ (FX (W − π), 1) η 0 (u) =λ and are given by h F (W − π − t ) i 0 Y + t0 − FX−1 (u) , λ u ∈ [FX (W − π), 1]. This implies that η(u) its maximum over [FX (W − π), 1] at F (W − π − t ) 0 Y ∗ + t0 , 1 . u = min max FX (W − π), FX λ which is non-increasing as a function of and attains η(u) 15 is concave gY (t) Since is non-increasing in t Z and gY (W − π − t) ≥ λ W −π FY (W − π − t0 )/λ + t0 = t0 for t ∈ (t0 , W − π], gY (W − π − t) dt + t0 ≥ λ Z W −π dt + t0 = W − π. t0 Hence, F (W − π − t ) F (W − π − t ) 0 0 Y Y u = min FX + t0 , 1 = FX min + t0 , M λ λ = FX (H(t0 , λ)) , ∗ and FX (t), ∗ Fλ∗ (t) = Fλ,u ∗ (t) = F H(t , λ) , 0 X F (t), X if 0 ≤ t < t0 , if t0 ≤ t < H(t0 , λ), if H(t0 , λ) ≤ t ≤ M, (23) where H(t, λ) = min FY (W − π − t) + t, M λ . With the analysis in the above Cases 4.1, 4.2 and 4.3, Lemma 2.3 can be readily for the solution of (11). small π e and a large π e. (24) invoked The solution is given in Propositions 4.2 and 4.3, respectively, for a To proceed, we dene Z de := FY (W − π)/gY ((W − π)− ) and M φ(F ) := [1 − F (t)] dt, F ∈ F ∗∗ . (25) 0 We further write Z de [1 − FX (t)] dt. π̄1 := (26) 0 Proposition 4.2 Assume that Assumptions 2.1 and 2.2 hold. For 0 ≤ d ≤ M , dene Fd (t) := FX (d), if 0 ≤ t < d, F (t), X if d ≤ t ≤ M. e M to satisfy φ(Ft ) = π Then, for each πe ∈ [0, π̄1 ], there exists a constant t0 ∈ d, e and Ft0 0 solves (9). h i Proof. h i Based on the analysis in Case 4.1, Fd solves (11) with λ = FY (W − π)/d, e M . Moreover, it is easy to check that φ(Fd ) is continuous as a function of d with d ∈ d, limd→M φ(Fd ) = 0 and limd→de φ(Fd ) = φ(Fde) = π̄1 . Thus, by the Intermediate Value Theorem, 16 there exists a constant Ft0 h i e M t0 ∈ d, such that e, φ(Ft0 ) = π and consequently, by Lemma 2.3, is one solution to (9). To derive the solution to (9) for each a ∈ [0, W − π], π̄1 , larger than some extra notations are necessary. For we denote Λa := Further, for each π e lim gY (W − π − t), lim gY (W − π − t) . t→a− t→a+ a ∈ [0, W − π] λa ∈ Λa , and we dene FX (t), F (a,λa ) (t) := FX H(a, λa ) , F (t), X if 0 ≤ t < a, if a ≤ t < H(a, λa ), if H(a, λa ) ≤ t ≤ M, (27) so that φ(F (a,λa ) Z a [1 − FX (t)] dt + [H(a, λa ) − a] · [1 − FX (H(a, λa ))] )= 0 Z M [1 − FX (t)] dt. + H(a,λa ) gY (t) is non-increasing in t, given any λ ∈ Λa , gY (W − π − t) − λ ≤ 0 for t ∈ [0, a) and gY (W −π −t)−λ ≥ 0 for t ∈ (a, W −π]. Therefore, according to the analysis in Case 4.3, F(a,λa ) is a solution to (22) for any λa ∈ Λa . Moreover, it is worth noting that Λa = {gY (W − π − a)}, which is a singleton set, at any continuity point a of gY (W − π − a). Therefor, for any interval (s1 , s2 ) where gY (W − π − t) is continuous, φ(F (a,λa ) ) is a continuous function of a. Since Proposition 4.3 Assume that Assumptions (2.1) and (2.2) hold. For each π e ∈ [π̄1 , E[X]) , there exists a constant a ∈ [0, W − π] and λa ∈ Λa such that F (a,λa ) solve Proof. . (9) Based on the analysis in Case 4.3 and Lemma 2.3, it is sucient to show the a ∈ [0, W −π] and λa ∈ Λa to satisfy φ(F (a,λa ) ) = π e for each π e ∈ [π̄1 , E[X]). Note (a,λ ) a that F = Fde for a = 0 and λa = limt→0+ gY (W −π −t) = gY ((W −π)− ), and F (a,λa ) = FX (a,λa ) ) = φ(F ) = π̄ and for a = W − π and any λa ∈ ΛW −π . These two cases lead to φ(F 1 de (a,λ ) a φ(F ) = E[X], respectively. Therefore, it is sucient for us to assume π e ∈ (π̄1 , E[X]) in existence of the rest of the proof. Dene n Sπe := t ∈ [0, W − π] : ∃ λ ∈ Λt 17 such that o φ(F (t,λt ) ) > π e , := sup Sπe . If gY (W −π−t) is continuous at t0 , then it is continuous over a neighbourhood of t0 , say (t0 − δ, t0 + δ) for some constant δ > 0, because it is a monotone function. In this (a,λa ) ) is a continuous case, Λt = {g(W − π − t)} for each t ∈ (t0 − δ, t0 + δ) and therefore, φ(F function of a over (t0 − δ, t0 + δ) with λa = g(W − π − a), which in turn implies that, given any > 0, and t0 φ(F (s,λs ) ) − ≤ φ(F (t0 ,λt0 ) ) ≤ φ(F (s,λs ) ) + , whenever property s ∈ (t0 − κ, t0 + κ) for some constant κ ∈ (0, δ). On one of t0 , there exists s1 ∈ (t0 − δ1 , t0 ) and s1 ∈ Sπ e such that hand, by the supremum φ(F (t0 ,λt0 ) ) ≥ φ(F (s1 ,λs1 ) ) − ≥ π e − . One the other hand, there exists s2 ∈ (t0 , t0 + δ2 ) and s2 ∈ / Sπe such that φ(F (t0 ,λt0 ) ) ≤ φ(F (s2 ,λs2 ) ) + ≤ π e + . Letting →0 Otherwise, we assume that gY (W − π − t) gt−0 := lim gY (W − π − t), t→t− 0 Since φ(F (t0 ,λt0 ) ) = π e. in the last two displays, we get gY (W − π − t) is discontinuous at t0 , and dene gt+0 := lim gY (W − π − t). and t→t+ 0 is monotone as a function of t, it has at most countably jumps, which δ > 0 such that gY (W − π − t) is continuous over (s,λ δ). Therefore, φ(F s ) ) is a continuous function of s over (t0 − δ, t0 ) in turn implies that there exists a constant (t0 − δ, t0 ) and (t0 , t0 + and (t0 , t0 + δ) with − lim φ(F (s,λs ) ) = φ(F (t0 ,gt0 ) ) s→t− 0 By the supremum property of t0 , + lim φ(F (s,λs ) ) = φ(F (t0 ,gt0 ) ). and there exists s→t+ 0 s1 ∈ (t0 − δ, t0 ) and s1 ∈ Sπe such that − φ(F (t0 ,gt0 ) ) ≥ φ(F (s1 ,λs1 ) ) − ≥ π e − . On the other hand, there exists s2 ∈ (t0 , t0 + δ) and s2 ∈ / Sπe such that + φ(F (t0 ,gt0 ) ) ≤ φ(F (s2 ,λs2 ) ) + ≤ π e + . Letting →0 in the last two displays, we obtain − + φ(F (t0 ,gt0 ) ) ≤ π e ≤ φ(F (t0 ,gt0 ) ). φ(F (t0 ,λ) ) with t0 xed is a continuous function λt0 ∈ [gt+0 , gt−0 ] ≡ Λt0 such that φ(F (t0 ,λt0 ) ) = π e. of λ and therefore, there must exist some The optimal ceded loss function for Problem 1.2 can be retrieved from the optimal CDF that is derived in Propositions 4.2 and 4.3 by invoking Lemma 2.2. 18 Theorem 4.2 (1 + ρ)(E[X] − π̄1 ) ≤ π ≤ (1 + ρ)E[X], one solution to 0, if 0 ≤ x < t0 , f ∗ (x) = x − t , if t0 ≤ x ≤ M, 0 (a) For each where t0 Assume that Assumptions 2.1 and 2.2 hold. (1 + ρ)E[f ∗ (X)] = π . 0 < π < (1 + ρ)(E[X] − π̄1 ), there Problem 1.2 is given by is determined by (b) For each exists a constant a ∈ [0, W − π] and λa ∈ Λa such that one optimal solution to Problem 1.2 is given by 0, f (a,λa ) (x) = x − a, 0, where if 0 ≤ x < a, if a ≤ x < H(a, λa ), if H(a, λa ) ≤ x ≤ M, (28) (1 + ρ)E f (a,λa ) (X) = π . π e = E[X] − π/(1 + ρ), the conditions on π given in both parts are equivalent terms of π e in Proposition 4.3 respectively. The result of part (a) follows from Since Proof. to those two in Lemma 2.2 and Proposition 4.2 as follows f ∗ (x) = x − r∗ (x) = x − (Ft0 )−1 (FX (x)) = where t0 and Ft0 x, if 0 ≤ x < t0 , x − t , 0 if t0 ≤ x ≤ M, are as given in Proposition 4.2. The result of part (b) can be proved similarly by using Lemma 2.2 and Proposition 4.3 as 0, f ∗ (x) = x − r∗ (x) = x − (F (a,λa ) )−1 (FX (x)) = x − a, 0, where a and λa if 0 ≤ x < a, if a ≤ x < H(a, λa ), if H(a, λa ) ≤ x ≤ M, are as given in Proposition 4.3. It is interesting to compare the solutions between Problems 1.1 and 1.2. For the case of W −π ≥ M , their solutions are given in Theorems 3.1 and 4.1 respectively. In this case, only a stop-loss reinsurance is shown to be optimal for Problem 1.2, whereas any reinsurance treaties satisfying the premium budget constraint are optimal to Problem 1.1. The solutions for the case of W − π < M are given in Theorems 3.2 and 4.2 for the two problems respectively. For both problems, the optimal reinsurance contract is a stop-loss treaty for larger premium budget π and a truncated stop-loss treaty for small premium budget π. This Remark 4 19 means that, in the later case with a small premium budget, the optimal strategy for the insurer is to entirely sacrice the protection against the occurrence of a large loss. The critical point for the optimal solution transits from a stop-loss treaty to a truncated stop-loss one diers between these two problems either. In the presence of Assumption 2.2, gY is non-increasing, and thus, it follows from (25) that d˜ = FY (W − π)/gY ((W − π)− ) ≥ W − π. This in turn follows form (15) and (26) that π̄0 ≤ π̄1 , and therefore, (1 + ρ)(E[X] − π̄1 ) ≤ (1 + ρ)(E[X] − π̄0 ). 5 Conclusion In the present paper, we propose an innovative cumulative distribution function (CDF) based method to solve a constrained and generally non-convex stochastic optimization problem, which arises from the area of optimal reinsurance, and targets to design the optimal reinsurance contract for an insurer to maximize its survival probability or for a more general goal-reaching model. It is an important decision problem to the insurance companies in their risk management. Our proposed method reformulates the optimization problem into a functional linear programming problem of determining an optimal CDF over a corresponding feasible set. The linearity of the CDF formulation allows us to conduct a pointwise optimization procedure, combined with the Lagrangian dual method, to solve the problem. Compared with the existing literature, our proposed CDF based method is more technically convenient and transparent in the derivation of optimal solutions. Moreover, our proposed CDF based method can be readily applied for analytical solutions in the presence of background risk. The inclusion of background risk leads to a more complex problem, and the analytical solutions are obtained for the rst time. Acknowledgements Weng thanks the nancial support from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, and Society of Actuaries Centers of Actuarial Excellence Research Grant. Zhuang acknowledges nancial support from the Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Waterloo. References [1] Arrow, K.J., 1963. Uncertainty and the welfare economics of medical care. American Economic Review 53, 941-973. 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