Estimated probability of a major outbreak
R0 = 1.2
1
0.9
E+I=2
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
Outbreaks
where
E+I=0
E+I=1
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
True probability of a major outbreak
0.9
1
R0 = 2
1
Estimated probability of a major outbreak
Estimated probability of a major outbreak
Estimated probability of a major outbreak
S6 Fig. Robustness of results to different values of the basic reproductive
number. R0 is varied by changing the infection rate, β, between subfigures. For R0 =
1.2, true probabilities greater than 0.97 are classified into bins of size 0.01. For R0 =
1.6, true probabilities greater than 0.98 are classified into bins of size 0.01. For R0 = 2
and R0 = 4, true probabilities greater than 0.99 are classified into a bin of size 0.01.
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
True probability of a major outbreak
0.9
1
R0 = 1.6
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
True probability of a major outbreak
0.9
1
0.9
1
R0 = 4
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
True probability of a major outbreak