Illinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich
Climate Change Advisory Group
(ICCAG)
Modeling of Policy Proposals
September 6, 2007
Policy Proposals
Code
Original
Number
Short Description
Straw Man
Estimate of
Reductions
Mt CO2e
Commercial, Industrial and Agricultural Sub-Group:
Efficiency standards for commercial and industrial
boilers and incentives for efficiency upgrades and
combined heat and power (Includes Policy 14)
Expanded use of no-till farming
Encourage or require reductions in emissions of
high GWP gases
Promote source reduction, recycling, and reuse
Encourage or require methane capture from coal
mines, landfills, livestock operations and wastewater
treatment plants
CI-05-04
04
CI-10-21
21
CI-15-03
03
CI-25-00
00
CI-30-11
11
CI-35-00
00
Land use offset requirement
CI-40-02
02
Forest management, reforestation, tree and grass
planting
Revised September 4, 2007
ICF International
3.6
0.5
2.7
2.7
2.56
Not
quantified
0.16
2
Policy Proposals
Code
Original
Number
Short Description
Straw Man
Estimate of
Reductions
Mt CO2e
Electricity and Power Sub-Group:
EP-05-05
05
EP-10-42
42
EP-15-00
EP-20-00
00
00
EP-30-33
33
EP-35-13
13
EP-40-07
07
EP-45-08
08
EP-50-09
09
Revised September 4, 2007
CO2 emissions performance standards for electricity
generation or an emissions portfolio standard
Energy conservation and efficiency programs for
existing state facilities
Enhanced energy efficiency programs
Enhanced renewable portfolio standard
Phase in of energy efficiency standards for light
bulbs
Establish residential and commercial energy
efficiency construction codes beyond International
Code Council model standards
Small renewable distributed generation
Energy efficiency standards for appliances and
equipment
Carbon capture and storage portfolio standard
ICF International
9.3
0.3
26.7
15.8
6.8
4.3
1.9
2.9
9.2 to 12.6
3
Policy Proposals
Code
Original
Number
Short Description
Straw Man
Estimate of
Reductions
Mt CO2e
Cap & Trade Sub-Group:
CT-05-12
12
CT-10-16
16
Code
Carbon offset requirements for existing and/or new
large stationary combustion sources
State-level cap and trade program
Original
Number
Short Description
5.2
Up to 72.6
Straw Man
Estimate of
Reductions
Mt CO2e
Transportation Sub-Group:
TR-05-44
44
TR-10-18
18
TR-15-19
TR-20-20
TR-25-69
19
20
69
TR-30-17
17
Revised September 4, 2007
Fuel efficiency and/or low carbon fuel requirements
for government vehicles
GHG emissions standards for cars (CA vehicle
emissions standards)
Incentives for fuel efficient vehicles
Low carbon fuel standard
Passenger and freight rail upgrades
Smart growth initiatives and expansion of mass
transit
ICF International
0.08
8.5 to 9.4
1.5 to 4.5
5.2 to 5.7
0.14
0.78 to1.51
4
Portfolio Scenarios
Code
Reference
IL-05-00
IL-10-00
IL-11-00
IL-15-00
Short Description
The “business as usual” case. A variation of the Reference case was done with
high prices to compare to IL-15-00.
All policies excluding cap and trade proposals. All strategies approved for
modeling by the ICCAG (“all-in”).
All-in, including Cap and Trade (CT-10-16):
a) Cap and trade auction revenues are initially applied to general
revenues. This modeling assumption was made to enable the
impacts of different investment strategies for these funds to be
evaluated separately.
b) No market linkages to the RGGI states or other markets.
Identical to IL-10-00, but with a linkage to the RGGI trading system.
Identical to IL-10-00, but with high oil and natural gas prices.
Revised September 4, 2007
ICF International
5
Illinois GHG Emissions – Reference Case
Reference Case
350
Total Emissions in 1990: 231 Mt CO 2 e
(Source: WRI)
300
Total - 312 Mt CO2e
Gap - 81 Mt CO2e
250
Mt CO2e
Target - 231 Mt CO2e
Agriculture &
Forestry
Waste &
Wastewater
Power Sector
200
150
Freight Transport
Passenger
Transport
Industrial
100
Commercial
50
Residential
0
2000
Revised September 4, 2007
2005
2010
ICF International
2015
2020
6
Illinois Electricity Sales
Reference Case
"All In" Except Cap & Trade (IL-05-00)
180,000
180,000
160,000
160,000
Street Lights/Misc.
140,000
Street Lights/Misc.
140,000
120,000
Industrial
Commercial
100,000
Residential
80,000
60,000
Transportation
Sales (GWh/year)
Sales (GWh/year)
Transportation
120,000
Commercial
100,000
Residential
80,000
60,000
40,000
40,000
20,000
20,000
-
Industrial
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
"All In" With Cap & Trade + RGGI (IL-11-00)
"All In" With Cap & Trade (IL-10-00)
180,000
180,000
160,000
160,000
Street Lights/Misc.
140,000
Street Lights/Misc.
140,000
Transportation
Industrial
Commercial
100,000
Residential
80,000
60,000
Transportation
Sales (GWh/year)
Sales (GWh/year)
120,000
120,000
Industrial
Commercial
100,000
Residential
80,000
60,000
40,000
40,000
20,000
20,000
-
2000
2005
2010
Revised September 4, 2007
2015
2020
2000
ICF International
2005
2010
2015
2020
7
Contribution to Change in Sales 2005-2020
Reference Case
(15,000)
(10,000)
(5,000)
-
"All In" Except Cap & Trade (IL-05-00)
5,000
10,000
15,000
(15,000)
(10,000)
Change in Sales 2005-2020 (GWh/year)
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
(10,000)
(5,000)
-
Residential
Transportation
5,000
Commercial
Industrial
Revised September 4, 2007
5,000
10,000
15,000
10,000
Commercial
Industrial
Transportation
"All In" With Cap & Trade + RGGI (IL-11-00)
15,000
(15,000)
Change in Sales 2005-2020 (GWh/year)
Residential
-
Change in Sales 2005-2020 (GWh/year)
"All In" With Cap & Trade (IL-10-00)
(15,000)
(5,000)
(10,000)
(5,000)
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
Change in Sales 2005-2020 (GWh/year)
Transportation
Residential
ICF International
Commercial
Industrial
Transportation
8
Illinois Electricity Generation
"All In" Except Cap & Trade (IL-05-00)
Reference Case
250,000
250,000
Other
Other
200,000
Wind
Landfill
Gas/EFW
Gas/Oil
Hydro
150,000
CCS Coal
Coal
Nuclear
100,000
Generation (GWh/year)
Generation (GWh/year)
200,000
Wind
Landfill
Gas/EFW
Gas/Oil
Hydro
150,000
CCS Coal
Coal
Nuclear
100,000
50,000
50,000
-
2000
2005
2010
2015
2000
2020
"All In" With Cap & Trade (IL-10-00)
2005
2010
2015
2020
"All In" With Cap & Trade + RGGI (IL-11-00)
250,000
250,000
Other
Other
200,000
Wind
Landfill
Gas/EFW
Gas/Oil
Hydro
150,000
CCS Coal
Coal
Nuclear
100,000
50,000
Generation (GWh/year)
Generation (GWh/year)
200,000
Wind
Landfill
Gas/EFW
Gas/Oil
Hydro
150,000
CCS Coal
Coal
Nuclear
100,000
50,000
-
2000
2005
2010
Revised September 4, 2007
2015
2020
2000
ICF International
2005
2010
2015
2020
9
Contribution to Generation Growth 2005-2020
Reference Case
(30,000)
(20,000)
(10,000)
-
"All In" Except Cap & Trade (IL-05-00)
10,000
20,000
30,000
(30,000)
(20,000)
Coal
CCS Coal
Landfill Gas/EFW
Wind
Other
Gas/Oil
"All In" With Cap & Trade (IL-10-00)
(30,000)
(20,000)
(10,000)
-
10,000
Coal
CCS Coal
Landfill Gas/EFW
20,000
Revised September 4, 2007
Wind
10,000
20,000
30,000
Coal
CCS Coal
Landfill Gas/EFW
Wind
Other
"All In" With Cap & Trade + RGGI (IL-11-00)
30,000
(30,000)
(20,000)
Change in Generation 2005-2020 (GWh/year)
Gas/Oil
-
Change in Generation 2005-2020 (GWh/year)
Change in Generation 2005-2020 (GWh/year)
Gas/Oil
(10,000)
(10,000)
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
Change in Generation 2005-2020 (GWh/year)
Other
ICF International
Gas/Oil
Coal
CCS Coal
Landfill Gas/EFW
Wind
Other
10
Effects on Coal Generation
 Change in each case between 2005 and 2020:
Change in Generation 2005-2020 (GWh)
Code
IL-05-00
IL-10-00
IL-11-00
In-State
Out-of-State
Coal (incl. Total
Coal (incl. Total
CCS)
Generation CCS)
Generation
6,108
23,955
78,086
224,008
19,542
46,846
63,473
201,000
(15,728)
3,473
85,031
227,298
16,773
37,441
65,008
206,279
Description
Reference Case
"All In" Except C&T
"All In" With C&T
"All In" With C&T+ RGGI
 Change from Reference Case in 2020:
Change in Generation from Reference Case in 2020 (GWh)
Code
IL-05-00
IL-10-00
IL-11-00
Description
"All In" Except C&T
"All In" With C&T
"All In" With C&T+ RGGI
In-State
Out-of-State
Coal (incl. Total
Coal (incl. Total
CCS)
Generation CCS)
Generation
13,433
22,890
(14,613)
(23,008)
(21,837)
(20,482)
6,945
3,290
10,664
13,486
(13,078)
(17,729)
 Note: Values “outside” of Illinois should are not calibrated to same degree as
for Illinois.
Revised September 4, 2007
ICF International
11
Effects on Coal Generation: 2020
Relative to Reference Case:
Note: Clean coal generation increases in each policy scenario to approximately
13,400 GWh annually by 2020.
Note: Illinois remains a net exporter of power under all three scenarios.
 “All In” Except Cap & Trade: (IL-05-00)

Illinois total generation increases by 10.4%; coal generation increases by
13.6% (conventional coal generation is identical to the Reference Case)
 “All In” With Cap & Trade: (IL-10-00)

Generation in Illinois declines by 9.3%; coal generation decreases by
22.2% (conventional coal generation decreases by 36%)
 “All In” With Cap & Trade + RGGI: (IL-11-00)

Generation in Illinois increases by 6.1%; coal generation increases by
10.8% (3% decreases in conventional coal)
Revised September 4, 2007
ICF International
12
Illinois GHG Emissions (Offsets shown as lines)
"All In" Except Cap & Trade (IL-05-00)
Reference Case
350
350
Total Emissions in 1990:
231 Mt CO 2 e (Source: WRI)
Agriculture/
Forestry
Total - 312 Mt CO2e
300
300
Waste &
Wastewater
Gap - 81 Mt CO2e
250
250
Agriculture &
Forestry
Waste &
Wastewater
Power Sector
200
150
Mt CO 2e
Mt CO2e
Target - 231 Mt CO2e
Power Sector
Freight Transport
200
Passenger
Transport
150
Freight Transport
Industrial
Passenger
Transport
Industrial
100
100
Commercial
Commercial
50
50
Residential
Residential
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
0
2000
2020
"All In" With Cap & Trade (IL-10-00)
2005
2010
2015
2020
"All In" With Cap & Trade + RGGI (IL-11-00)
350
350
Agriculture/
Forestry
Agriculture/
Forestry
Waste &
Wastewater
300
300
Waste &
Wastewater
Power Sector
250
Power Sector
200
Freight
Transport
150
Passenger
Transport
Freight
Transport
200
Mt CO 2e
Mt CO 2e
250
Passenger
Transport
Industrial
150
Commercial
Industrial
100
100
Residential
Commercial
50
50
RGGI Offsets
Residential
Offsets
0
0
Offsets
-50
2000
2005
2010
Revised September 4, 2007
2015
2020
-50
2000
ICF International
2005
2010
2015
2020
13
Change in GHG Emissions (excluding offsets)
"All In" Except Cap & Trade (IL-05-00)
Reference Case
(30)
(20)
(10)
-
10
20
30
(30)
(20)
Change in Emissions 2005-2020 (Mt CO2e)
-
10
20
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Passenger Transport
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Passenger Transport
Freight Transport
Power Sector
Waste & Wastewater
Agriculture/ Forestry
Freight Transport
Power Sector
Waste & Wastewater
Agriculture/ Forestry
"All In" With Cap & Trade (IL-10-00)
(30)
(10)
(20)
(10)
-
10
"All In" With Cap & Trade + RGGI (IL-11-00)
20
30
(30)
(20)
Change in Emissions 2005-2020 (Mt CO2e)
(10)
-
10
20
30
Change in Emissions 2005-2020 (Mt CO2e)
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Passenger Transport
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Passenger Transport
Freight Transport
Power Sector
Waste & Wastewater
Agriculture/ Forestry
Freight Transport
Power Sector
Waste & Wastewater
Agriculture/ Forestry
Revised September 4, 2007
30
Change in Emissions 2005-2020 (Mt CO2e)
ICF International
14
Illinois GHG Emissions - with Policies
GHG Emissions with Policy Portfolios: (Mt CO 2e)
Code
Description
Reference Case
IL-05-00 "All In" Except C&T
IL-10-00 "All In" With C&T
IL-11-00 "All In" With C&T+ RGGI
2010
288
276
276
276
Reduction vs. Reference
Remaining
Gap
2015
2020
Direct
Offsets *
Allowances **
307
312
278
275
(36)
258
233
(79)
(5)
272
267
(44)
(5)
(33)
Target
231
* Indicates offsets purchased from in-state sources
** Indicates allowances purchased from out of state sources (RGGI)
80
44
(3)
(2)
 For modeling purposes:
 Revenues generated from the Cap & Trade scenario are assumed to
go into general state revenue
 Offsets are assumed to occur within the state and are above and
beyond the “direct” reductions
 Allowances are assumed to be purchased from out-of-state sources
Revised September 4, 2007
ICF International
15
Illinois GHG Emissions (including offsets)
Impact of Policy Portfolios
350
Total Emissions in 1990: 231
Mt CO 2 e (Source: WRI)
300
Total - 312 Mt CO2e
Gap - 81 Mt CO2e
250
Mt CO2e
Target - 231 Mt CO2e
200
Reference Case
All except Cap & Trade
150
All In with C&T
All In with C&T & RGGI
100
50
0
2000
2005
Revised September 4, 2007
2010
ICF International
2015
2020
16
GHG Policy Impact Outside of Illinois
GHG Emissions with Policy Portfolios: (Mt CO 2e)
Code
Reductions vs. Reference Case
Description
2010
2015
2020
Direct
Reference Case
7,394
7,656
7,823
IL-05-00 "All In" Except C&T
7,385
7,629
7,779
(44)
IL-10-00 "All In" With C&T
7,385
7,647
7,819
(3)
IL-11-00 "All In" With C&T+ RGGI
7,385
7,633
7,786
(37)
* Indicates out-of-state allowances purchased by Illinois (RGGI) (see previous slide)
Total Reduction
vs. Reference
Allowances *
(33)
(44)
(3)
(70)
 Note: Values “outside” of Illinois are not calibrated to same degree as for
Illinois.
 Out-of-state allowances impact emissions outside of Illinois.
 “All In” except C&T includes new renewables and energy efficiency that
displace fossil generation both inside and outside Illinois.
 Addition of Cap & Trade does not have a major impact on emissions outside of
Illinois
 Link with RGGI results in GHG reduction outside of Illinois in addition to in-state
decrease.
Revised September 4, 2007
ICF International
17
Change in Emissions – by Sector and Region
(excluding offsets)
 Change (in 2020) from Reference Case (Mt CO2e)
Policy Portfolio (IL-05-00) - "All In" Except Cap and Trade in 2020
Sector
Illinois
Region
Residential
(5.84)
Commercial
(4.35)
Industrial
(4.09)
Agriculture/ Forestry
(1.72)
Passenger Transport
(15.64)
Freight Transport
(1.39)
Power Sector
(0.44)
Waste & Wastewater
(3.01)
Total(36.49)
Policy Portfolio (IL-10-00) - "All In" with Cap and Trade in 2020
Sector
Illinois
Residential
(5.89)
Commercial
(4.38)
Industrial
(5.65)
Agriculture/ Forestry
(1.87)
Passenger Transport
(15.78)
Freight Transport
(1.42)
Power Sector
(40.79)
Waste & Wastewater
(3.02)
Total(78.80)
Rest of U.S.
(0.00)
(0.00)
(19.21)
(19.21)
Region
Net - Outside of Illinois North America as a
(0.00)
0.00
(43.60)
(43.60)
whole
(5.84)
(4.35)
(4.09)
(1.72)
(15.64)
(0.05)
(44.05)
(3.01)
(78.75)
(0.00)
(0.00)
(9.54)
(9.54)
Net - Outside of Illinois North America as a
(0.00)
0.00
(3.33)
(3.33)
whole
(5.89)
(4.38)
(5.65)
(1.87)
(15.78)
(0.08)
(44.12)
(3.02)
(80.79)
(0.00)
(0.00)
(22.11)
(22.11)
Net - Outside of Illinois North America as a
0.00
0.00
(36.79)
(36.79)
whole
(5.88)
(4.37)
(5.18)
(1.87)
(15.75)
(0.07)
(43.67)
(3.01)
(79.81)
Rest of U.S.
(0.00)
(0.00)
6.18
6.18
Policy Portfolio (IL-11-00) - "All In" with Cap and Trade and Link to RGGI in 2020
Sector
Illinois
Region
Residential
(5.88)
(0.00)
Commercial
(4.37)
Industrial
(5.18)
(0.00)
Agriculture/ Forestry
(1.87)
Passenger Transport
(15.75)
Freight Transport
(1.41)
Power Sector
(6.88)
(14.67)
Waste & Wastewater
(3.01)
Total(44.36)
(14.67)
Revised September 4, 2007
(0.00)
(0.00)
(24.42)
(24.42)
Rest of U.S.
ICF International
18
Change in Emissions – by Sector and Region
(excluding offsets)
 While out of state reductions are beneficial from a global
perspective, they are not counted as part of in-state
inventories.

Out-of-state allowances and offsets could be counted
towards in-state targets.
 All
in except C&T - Total reduction 2.1x greater than instate reduction.
in with C&T – Total reduction 1.02 x greater than in-state
reduction (more of total reduction occurs in-state)
 All
With link to RGGI – total reductions ~1.8x in-state
reduction.


In all cases, N.A. reduction of approximately 80 Mt CO2e
Revised September 4, 2007
ICF International
19
Electricity Rate Impact

Residential electricity rates rise in all policy cases relative to the
Reference Case.
Change in Residential Electricity Rates (relative to Reference)
Code
Description
2010
IL-05-00
"All In" except C&T
5.2%
IL-10-00
"All In" With C&T
5.2%
IL-11-00
"All In" With C&T+ RGGI
5.2%
2015
2.9%
4.0%
3.8%
2020
2.9%
3.7%
3.5%

Cost increase greater with addition of Cap & Trade, but
impact reduced by RGGI link.

Rate impact declines over period.

While rates rise, the cost of electricity or average bill for
residential households declines.
 Average
electricity use per household declines due to
increased levels of energy efficiency.
Revised September 4, 2007
ICF International
20
Electricity Bill Impact
 Average
household electricity costs begin to decline in 2008 relative
to the Reference Case
Change in Average Household Electricity Costs (relative to Reference)
Code
IL-05-00
All In except C&T
IL-10-00
All In with C&T
IL-11-00
All In with C&T& RGGI
2010
-6.4%
-6.4%
-6.4%
2015
-17.7%
-17.0%
-17.2%
2020
-19.9%
-19.4%
-19.6%
 Approximate annual savings by 2020:
 Households: ~1.1 billion on BAU base of 5.5 billion
 Commercial: ~1.3 billion on BAU base of 4.3 billion
 Industrial: ~0.7 billion on BAU base of 4.3 billion
Annual Savings by 2020 in Total Electricity Costs (millions 2005 $)
Code
Household Commercial
IL-05-00
All In except C&T
$
(1,138) $
(1,333) $
IL-10-00
All In with C&T
$
(1,114) $
(1,314) $
IL-11-00
All In with C&T& RGGI
$
(1,122) $
(1,319) $
Revised September 4, 2007
ICF International
Industrial
(780)
(726)
(742)
21
Carbon Trading – Illinois Permit Costs
"All In" With Cap & Trade (IL-10-00)
20
Carbon Cost (2008$/tonne)
18
16
Marginal
Trading
Cost
Offsets
14
12
RGGI
Permits
10
8
6
4
2
0
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
 Carbon trading costs rise to just over $18 per tonne by 2020 under the proposed Cap
& Trade policy.
 Link with RGGI limits carbon trading costs to assumed price for RGGI; enabling lower
cost compliance.
 Higher compliance cost reflected in greater reduction in Illinois emissions (slide 13).
Revised September 4, 2007
ICF International
22
Economic Impacts of Policy Portfolios

All policies positively impact state employment
Employment
1.0%
Percentage Change from Reference Case
0.9%
All In
Except
C&T
0.8%
All In with
Cap
&Trade
0.7%
0.6%
All In
w/C&T &
RGGI Link
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
2005
Revised September 4, 2007
2010
2015
ICF International
2020
23
Employment Changes by Sector
 Employment impacts differ by sector: (overall impact < 1%)
 Only traditional power sector sees decline, with shift in
employment to new power plant construction (i.e. wind,
CCS, etc.) and DSM programs
 Impact on mining very slightly negative in early years
(< 0.1%) then positive in later years
 Overall there is an increase in employment, with largest
benefit in the commercial, industrial and construction
sectors.
Revised September 4, 2007
ICF International
24
Economic Impacts of Policy Portfolios

Impact on Gross State Product positive for all policies
 GSP increases by ~0.5% by 2010 and continues to grow
Gross State Product
Percentage Change from Reference Case
1.2%
1.0%
All In Except
C&T
All In with
C&Trade
0.8%
All In w/C&T
& RGGI Link
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
2005
Revised September 4, 2007
2010
2015
ICF International
2020
25
Economic Impacts of Policy Portfolios
 Real Personal Income increases over the entire period.
Personal Disposable Income
Percentage Change from Reference Case
1.2%
1.0%
All In
Except Cap
& Trade
0.8%
All In with
Cap &
Trade
0.6%
All In
w/C&T &
RGGI Link
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
2005
Revised September 4, 2007
2010
2015
ICF International
2020
26
High Price Scenario

High oil/gas price scenario results in 2020
emissions 16 Mt lower than Reference Case in
2020.
 All policies (including Cap & Trade) implemented
in context of high oil/gas prices result in 2020
emission of 229 Mt CO2e (2 Mt below target).
 All other sectors lower in high price case.
Revised September 4, 2007
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High Price Scenario

Illinois electricity
sales ~1% higher
in high price
scenario.
 Illinois generation
lower relative to
Reference case.
 Largest decrease
occurs in Gas/Oil
generation.
 Coal generation
unaffected.
Reference Case
Generation Output (GWh/year)
Gas/Oil
Coal
Nuclear
Hydro
Landfill Gas/EFW
Wind
Other
Total
2010
9,104
95,415
93,480
338
941
311
277
199,866
2015
17,984
103,964
93,480
338
1,296
1,103
277
218,443
2020
22,839
98,661
93,480
338
2,055
1,879
277
219,529
High Price Reference Case
Generation Output (GWh/year)
Gas/Oil
Coal
Nuclear
Hydro
Landfill Gas/EFW
Wind
Other
Total
2010
6,893
95,415
93,480
338
941
311
277
197,655
2015
12,583
103,964
93,480
338
1,344
1,713
277
213,700
2020
15,323
98,661
93,480
3,148
2,031
2,530
780
215,953
Revised September 4, 2007
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GHG Emissions in Expected and High Price
Scenarios
Reference Case: Expected Prices
(30)
(20)
(10)
-
10
Reference Case: High Oil/Gas Prices
20
30
(30)
(20)
Change in Emissions 2005-2020 (Mt CO 2e)
(10)
-
10
20
30
Change in Emissions 2005-2020 (Mt CO2e)
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Passenger Transport
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Passenger Transport
Freight Transport
Power Sector
Waste & Wastewater
Agriculture/ Forestry
Freight Transport
Power Sector
Waste & Wastewater
Agriculture/ Forestry
Revised September 4, 2007
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Illinois GHG Emissions including High Price
Scenarios
GHG Emissions with Policy Portfolios: (Mt CO 2e)
Code
Description
Reference Case
IL-10-00 "All In" With C&T
IL-HP-00 High Price Reference Case
IL-15-00 IL-10-00 with High Prices


Remaining
Gap
2015
2020
Direct
Offsets *
Allowances **
307
312
258
233
(79)
(5)
297
296
258
229
(83)
(3)
Target
231
* Indicates offsets purchased from in-state sources
** Indicates allowances purchased from out of state sources (RGGI)
80
(3)
65
(5)
High oil/gas price scenario results in 2020 emissions 16 Mt lower
than Reference Case in 2020.
All policies (including Cap & Trade) implemented in context of high
oil/gas prices result in 2020 emission of:



2010
288
276
285
275
Reduction vs. Reference
229 Mt CO2e (2 Mt below target)
Only 4 Mt lower than “All In with C&T” (IL-10-00) – some of reductions
occur in response to higher prices.
All other sectors lower in high price case.
Revised September 4, 2007
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High Price Scenario
Impact of Policy Portfolios - High Prices
350
Total Emissions in 1990: 231 Mt
CO 2 e (Source: WRI)
Reference Case - 312 Mt CO2e
300
High Price Ref.- 296 Mt CO2e
250
Mt CO 2e
Target - 231 Mt CO2e
w/ Policies - 229 Mt CO2e
200
Agriculture & Forestry
Waste & Wastewater
Power Sector
150
Freight Transport
Passenger Transport
100
Industrial
Commercial
50
Residential
All In plus C&T & High
Prices
0
2000
2005
Revised September 4, 2007
2010
2015
ICF International
2020
31
Policy Impact in High Price Scenario
"All In" With Cap & Trade + High Prices (IL-15-00)
(30)
(20)
(10)
-
10
20
30
Change in Emissions 2005-2020 (Mt CO2e)
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Passenger Transport
Freight Transport
Power Sector
Waste & Wastewater
Agriculture/ Forestry
Revised September 4, 2007
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Questions?
Revised September 4, 2007
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