CHAPTER 2 Valuation and Financing Decisions in an Ideal Capital Market Guidance...…………………………………………………………… 2-3 to 2-4 PowerPoint slides……………………………………………………. 2-5 to 2-17 Guidance Chapter 2 is the most mathematically intensive chapter in the text. Two weeks of lectures are required to cover it fully. Ignoring the model reconciliation discussion in Section 2.8 can reduce lecture time. Also, coverage of the Black-Scholes model in Section 2.7 can be reduced by introducing the model but ignoring the expected return and risk formulas in the latter portion of the section (though we return to these formulas in later chapters). In addition, the more technical discussion of the limitations of the M&M structure to actually prove Proposition II can be skirted if necessary. However, we advise against ignoring the Binomial Pricing Model, because it serves well to illustrate: (a) the concept of riskless arbitrage; (b) the rational partitioning of a firm’s value among debt and equity claims; and (c) the effects of financial decisions on the values of a firm’s debt and equity securities (which we illustrate using the Binomial Pricing Model in Chapter 3). It is important to discuss the 5 assumptions of the Ideal Capital Market (Section 2.2) 2-1 at the outset of lecturing because: (a) they establish the student’s perspective on the nature of capital markets; (b) they are required for all of the pricing models discussed in this chapter; and (c) the real-world factors discussed in later chapters represent direct violations of these assumptions, as we discuss in Chapter 3. It is also important to discuss Modern Portfolio Theory (and particularly the risk-reducing benefits of diversification) in relation to corporate financial management because, as we discuss later: (a) the corporate form allows for separation of ownership and control, and by extension for shareholders to become diversified, which in turn reduces all firms’ costs of capital (which is best illustrated via the CAPM); (b) a manager may be required to be undiversified, and thus exposed to greater risk than the firm’s shareholders; and (c) the topic relates to the concept of ownership structure, which we introduce in Chapter 3 and discuss throughout the text. It is important to introduce the CAPM in part because the SML is used in the valuation of stocks in Chapter 9. 2-2 CHAPTER 2 Valuation and Financing Decisions in an Ideal Capital Market Prentice Hall 2-2 Copyright © 2002 by Prentice Hall Inc. All rights reserved. Finally, Appendix A can be ignored or used as an alternative (original) means of illustrating M&M Proposition I. Appendix B provides values of the cumulative normal distribution function, which is needed (absent a calculator or computer that provides such values) for the BSOPM. 2-3 Assumptions of the Ideal Capital Market • Assumption 1: Capital Markets are Frictionless (i.e., no taxes or transaction costs). • Assumption 2: All Market Participants Share Homogeneous Expectations. • Assumption 3: Alland market participants Modigliani Miller’s (M&M) are atomistic. Proposition I • Assumption 4: The Firm’s Investment Program is • Fixed M&Mand Proposition I: The market value of a Known. firm (V) is invariant to theFinancing amountisofFixed. leverage • Assumption 5: The Firm’s [i.e., debt (D) relative to equity (E)] used to finance its assets. Proof is based on an arbitrage argument. If VU 2-3 EU=VLD+EL does not hold for a given firm, an arbitrageur can purchase the firm (or a portion of it), alter its capital structure, and then sell it for an immediate profit. Prentice Hall Prentice Hall Copyright © 2002 by Prentice Hall Inc. All rights reserved. 2-4 Copyright © 2002 by Prentice Hall Inc. All rights reserved. 2-4 Modigliani and Miller’s (M&M) Proposition II… • M&M Proposition II: The expected return on a firm’s equity increases with the firm’s leverage. …implies both equations below (for a given firm) This is a corollary to Proposition I. The value of a firm can remain invariant to changes in capital structure only if the firm’s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC), which is the discount rate used to determine the value of the firm’s assets, is EL D constant asrD leverage varies… WACC rA rLE constan t D E L Prentice Hall 2-5 D EL Copyright © 2002 by Prentice Hall Inc. All rights reserved. D rLE rA (rA rD ) EL 2-5 Prentice Hall 2-6 Copyright © 2002 by Prentice Hall Inc. All rights reserved. A Numerical Example • Firm Z is currently an all-equity firm with VU EU=$100, and rA rUE=10%. • Firm Z recapitalizes by issuing debt with a value of D=$35, using the proceeds to pay a dividend to stockholders. • The value of firm Z remains $100: VL D+EL=$35+$65. • Stockholders are indifferent to the change because they maintain $100 in value: $35 in dividends and $65 in stock. • If the cost of debt capital is rD=7%, then the cost of levered equity is: 35 rLE 10 % (10 % 7%) 11 .62 % 65 Prentice Hall 2-7 Copyright © 2002 by Prentice Hall Inc. All rights reserved. 2-6 Dividends are also Irrelevant in an Ideal Capital Market • If a firm’s investment and debt policy are fixed, then as the firm increases its dividend, it must eventually finance such payments by issuing additional shares. However, a dividend is just a partial liquidation of the original shareholders’ interest in the firm. Hence, a dividend and the simultaneous issuance of new shares (at a fair market price) is just a forced sale of a portion of the original shareholders’ claim on the firm to new shareholders. But this sale occurs at a fair market price, so it is a matter of indifference to all parties, including the original shareholders who can, if they wish, use their dividend cash to restore their proportional claim on the firm by purchasing some of the issued shares. Prentice Hall Copyright © 2002 by Prentice Hall Inc. All rights reserved. 2-8 Modern Portfolio Theory " MPT involves two basic constructs: the statistical effects of diversification on the expected return and risk of a portfolio; and the attitudes of investors toward risk; specifically, it is assumed that investors are averse to risk, but are sufficiently tolerant of risk to bear it if sufficient compensation (i.e., higher expected return), is provided. " MPT assumes that investors are concerned only with the expected return and standard deviation of their overall portfolio. MPT addresses the task of identifying the portfolio that maximizes an investor s expected utility given the investor s willingness to tradeoff risk and expected return. Prentice Hall 2-9 Copyright © 2002 by Prentice Hall Inc. All rights reserved. 2-7 Statistics for a Portfolio of Two Securities " Expected return: rp = wArA + wB rB " Example: rA=10%; rB =15%; wA =.7; wB =.3 rp = 0.7(10%)+0.3(15%)=11.5% " Standard deviation: 1/ 2 p w2A2A w2B2B 2wAwBABAB " Example: A=30%; B=50%; =0.33; wA =.7 p=[0.72302+0.32502+2(0.7)(0.3)(30)(50)(0.33)]1/2 =29.6% Prentice Hall 2-10 Copyright © 2002 by Prentice Hall Inc. All rights reserved. Statistics for an N-Security Portfolio • Expected return (general) N rp w i ri i1 • Expected return (equally weighted) rp 1 N ri N i 1 • Standard deviation (general) N N p [ w i w j ij ]1 / 2 i 1 j1 • Standard deviation (equally weighted) Prentice Hall p [ 1 1 * ( i2 ) (1 ) * ( ij )]1 / 2 , N N 2-11 Copyright © 2002 by Prentice Hall Inc. All rights reserved. 2-8 FIGURE 2-1 Annual Return Standard Deviation,p, for an EquallyWeighted Portfolio as a Function of the Number of Risky Securities in the Portfolio, N, for Alternative Values of the Average Pairwise Correlation () Between the Securities' Returns 45 40 35 = 0.50 p (%) 30 25 = 0.25 20 = 0.10 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 7 10 15 20 30 40 55 70 100 150 225 300 450 Number of Securities (N) Prentice Hall 2-12 Copyright © 2002 by Prentice Hall Inc. All rights reserved. 2-9 The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)… • In the CAPM equilibrium, all investors hold the market portfolio, which includes all risky assets (each held in proportion to its relative outstanding total market value), in combination with the risk-free asset. The details of an individual investor’s complete portfolio (C) can be described using the Capital Market Line (CML). The expected return on an individual security is a function of its systematic risk, measured by (beta). This relationship is the Security Market Line (SML). Prentice Hall 2-15 Copyright © 2002 by Prentice Hall Inc. All rights reserved. 2-10 …The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) • The Capital Market Line (CML): rc rf c (rM rf ) M • The Security Market Line (SML): ri rf i (rM rf ) Prentice Hall 2-16 Copyright © 2002 by Prentice Hall Inc. All rights reserved. The Binomial Pricing Model… • Assumed distribution of future stock price: With u>1: VTu uV With d=1/u: VTd dV A useful formula for u: u e T With: V=firm value; and p=prob. of an up jump: VTu V VTd V rA p (1 p) V V Prentice Hall 2-17 Copyright © 2002 by Prentice Hall Inc. All rights reserved. 2-11 …The Binomial Pricing Model… • Payoff on default-risky debt of a levered firm: If up jump: D Tu X If down jump: D T VT X d d • Payoff on default-risky levered equity: If up jump: E uLT VTu X If down jump: E dLT 0 Prentice Hall 2-18 Copyright © 2002 by Prentice Hall Inc. All rights reserved. …The Binomial Pricing Model… • We can value the firm’s equity and debt by creating a riskfree hedge portfolio with a long position in the levered firm’s assets and a short position in units of the firm’s levered equity. The value of must be chosen so that the portfolio has the same payoff in both the up and down states: [VTu E uLT ] [VTd E dLT ] Prentice Hall 2-19 Copyright © 2002 by Prentice Hall Inc. All rights reserved. 2-12 …The Binomial Pricing Model • The value of the equity of a levered firm: VTu VTd Given hedge ratio: u E LT E dLT the value of the equity is: 1 u 1 u E L V[ ] VT E LT /(1 rf ) T Prentice Hall 2-20 Copyright © 2002 by Prentice Hall Inc. All rights reserved. The Put-Call Parity Theorem • By arbitrage, the following relationship must hold among the value of an underlying asset (V), the values of put (P) and call (C) options on the underlying asset that share the same exercise price (X) and expiration date (T), and the present value of a risk-free pure-discount bond that pays the amount X at date T: V+P=C+X/(1+rf)T Prentice Hall 2-21 Copyright © 2002 by Prentice Hall Inc. All rights reserved. 2-13 The Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model… • Assumption: The underlying asset’s instantaneous returns are normally distributed with constant per-annum mean and standard deviation of • The equity of a levered firm is a call option on the firm’s assets, where X, the promised payment on pure-discount debt, is the exercise price, and the time to expiration of the call option is T, the time to maturity of the debt. Prentice Hall 2-22 Copyright © 2002 by Prentice Hall Inc. All rights reserved. …The Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model • The formula is: C V[ N (d )] e rf T X[ N (d T )] • where N(d) is the cumulative normal distribution function and: V ln ( ) [rf ( 2 / 2)]T X d T Prentice Hall 2-23 Copyright © 2002 by Prentice Hall Inc. All rights reserved. 2-14 FIGURE Distribution of IBM's Monthly Stock Returns, FIGURE2-4 2-6 The Combinations of Leverage (D/V) and Asset Standard Deviation () Yielding Standard Deviations of 1%, 5%, 10%, and 20% 1980-2000 Mean (1.21%) 16 100% Std. Deviation (7.56%) 14 80% 12 6% 5% Normal Distribution Probability Density (%) for the Firm's 5-Year Pure Discount Debt 18 Frequency 4% 10 60% D/V 8 3% Normal Distribution 40% 6 D=20% 4 20% 2 D=1% 2% 1% D=5% D=10% 0 0% 0% -26 -24 -22 -20 -18 -16 -14 -12 -10-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Return (%, Integer Categories) Prentice Hall 35% 2-24 2-26 Copyright © 2002 by Prentice Hall Inc. All rights reserved. FIGURE 2-5 Annual Return Standard Deviations for the Equity (EL) FIGURE An Illustration of a Firm-Specific Security Market Line and Debt (2-7 D) of a Levered Firm, and Market Debt Ratio, D/V, all as Functions of the Promised Payment, X, on 5-Year Pure-Discount Debt. (Standard deviation of assets is =20%.) 140% 30% Annual Expected Return Equity (X=90) 120% 25% 100% 20% 80% D/V LE 15% 60% Equity (X=50) 10% 40% 20%5% 0% 0% 0 Prentice Hall Prentice Hall Assets Debt (X=90) D Debt (X=50) 0% 50 20% 100 40% 150 200 60% 80% X Annual Return Standard Deviation 2-25 2-27 250 100% 300 120% Copyright © 2002 by Prentice Hall Inc. All rights reserved. Copyright © 2002 by Prentice Hall Inc. All rights reserved. 2-15 2-16
© Copyright 2025 Paperzz