US probability of at least one rate increase by the Fed
9 September vs 27 August vs 15 June
9 September 2015
Percentage probability
27 August 2015
28.0
24.0
'September 2015
15 June 2015
50.5
41.0
34.6
'October 2015
57.4
59.9
50.3
'December 2015
79.6
66.3
'January 2016
55.3
83.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
US probability that the Fed will increase rates at their
September meeting
% probability, based on Federal Funds Futures
60.0
55.0
Probability of a rate hike
50.0
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
S
A
J
J
M
A
M
F
2015
Bloomberg survey of analysts expectations:
Fed interest rate decision 17 September
Out of the 70 analysts surveyed:
• All 70 analysts have been surveyed within the last month
• 44 analysts expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25bps
• 26 analysts expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged
3
US consumer inflation
%y/y
2.5
Core inflation
2.0
1.5
1.0
Headline inflation
0.5
0.0
-0.5
2014 Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
US Real GDP Growth – 3 Year Moving Average
%q/q, 3-year moving average
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
US Federal Funds Target Rate
%
6
5
US
4
3
2
1
0
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15