August 11, 2015
Bernie Sanders Rises in Democratic Presidential Race in New Hampshire
By:
R. Kelly Myers
Marlin Fitzwater Fellow, Franklin Pierce University
603.433.3982
Portsmouth, NH. – Bernie Sanders shows strong gains in favorability and overtakes Hillary
Clinton in vote choice. Still, approximately two-thirds (65%) of voters believe Hillary Clinton will
win the Democratic Party’s nomination, compared to just 11 percent who think Sanders will win.
These results are based on a recent Franklin Pierce University / Boston Herald Poll conducted
by RKM Research and Communications, August 7-10, 2015. The survey is based on responses
from 442 randomly selected likely Democratic presidential primary voters. Interviews were
conducted by landline and cellular telephone. The sampling margin of error is +/- 4.7 percent.
Favorability Ratings
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has a very high favorable rating of 80 percent, followed
closely by Vice President Joe Biden (79%) and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (76%).
Former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley, former Rhode Island Governor Lincoln Chafee and
Former Virginia Senator Jim Webb both remain relatively little known candidates at this early
stage of the race.
Favorability Ratings: Potential Democratic Presidential Candidates
Favorability Ratings: Potential Democratic Presidential Candidates
March 2015
65 5
Joe Biden
29 1
79 5 16
N/A
Lincoln Chafee
17
27
21
35
84 312 1
Hillary Clinton
16
Martin O'Malley
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb
August 2015
15
0
27 12
44
56
21 9 15
28 18
Percent
80 2 18
26
31 10
33
76 12 8 4
40
20
100 0
34 13
Percent
Favorable
No opinion
Unfavorable
Not recognized
33
100
Bernie Sanders’ favorability rating climbed 20 points since March, while Joe Biden’s favorability
increased 14 points and Hillary Clinton’s declined four points. Notably, fewer respondents gave
Sanders an unfavorable rating (8%) compared to Clinton and Biden (18% and 16%,
respectively).
Favorability Ratings: Potential Democratic Presidential Candidates
Favorability Ratings: Potential Democratic Presidential Candidates
25
Joe Biden
Lincoln Chafee 3
54 5
14
27
7
Martin O'Malley
19
4
16
45 2
31 6 4
34
0
Very Fav.
35
54
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb
14 7
36
Hillary Clinton
Somewhat Fav.
22
7 6
Somewhat Unf.
9
8
33
12 6 24
33
100
Percent
Neutral
10 6
Very Unf.
Not Recognize
When general impressions of the candidates are further broken down to look at the strength of
voters’ views, it is noteworthy that more than one-half of likely Democratic primary voters have a
very favorable view toward Bernie Sanders (54%), while most of Clinton’s and Biden’s
favorability is less enthusiastic (i.e., more somewhat favorable views than very favorable views).
Democratic Presidential Primary Vote Choice
March 2015
10
Biden
47
4
44
Warren
Webb
<1
Webb
Other
3
Other
5
0
<1
Sanders
22
Warren
Unsure
N/A
O'Malley
8
Sanders
37
Clinton
Cuomo
1
O'Malley
<1
Chafee
Clinton
Cuomo
9
Biden
N/A
Chafee
August 2015
N/A
1
3
6
Unsure
Percent
100
0
Percent
100
Voters were asked who they would vote for if the Democratic presidential primary were held
today. The results indicate that Bernie Sanders has overtaken Hillary Clinton in the contest.
Currently, he would receive 44 percent of the vote, compared to 37 percent for Clinton and nine
percent for Biden.
Firmness of Democratic Presidential Primary Vote Choice
OVERALL
Biden
26
74
Chafee
Sanders
Webb
100
0
Clinton
O'Malley
40
60
40
59
0
100
56
65
Could Change Mind
44
35
Firm Choice
Voters were asked if they have made a firm choice in the race, or whether they could change
their mind between now and the time of the election. As expected, most voters indicate that they
could change their mind (60%) while 40 percent of respondents report that they have made a
firm choice. These results suggest that most voters remain open to the possibility of changing
their mind.
These results are consistent with the amount of attention that Democratic voters are giving the
2016 presidential election at this time. Only 33 percent of likely Democratic primary voters are
following the presidential election very closely, while the vast majority are following the election
only somewhat (48%) or not that closely (19%).
Candidate Most Likely to Win the Presidential Nomination of the Democratic
Party
March 2015
6
Biden
7
Biden
N/A
Chafee
August 2015
65
Clinton
0
Chafee
65
Clinton
Cuomo
1
Cuomo
O'Malley
2
O'Malley
Sanders
3
Sanders
Warren
4
Warren
Webb
<1
Webb
0
Other
4
Other
0
15
Unsure
0
N/A
0
11
N/A
17
Unsure
Percent
100
0
Percent
100
Despite no longer leading in terms of vote choice, Hillary Clinton is still widely considered to be
the likely nominee. Almost two-thirds of likely Democratic primary voters believe that Hillary
Clinton (65%) will win the presidential nomination of the Democratic Party, followed by Bernie
Sanders (11%) and Joe Biden (7%). Only 17 percent of voters are unsure who will be the
eventual nominee of the Party.
Reason for supporting Republican presidential vote choice?
Reason for Supporting Democratic Candidate
Overall
Clinton
(n=161)
Sanders
(n=193)
Biden
(n=40)
Best chance of getting elected
7%
15%
1%
3%
Supports issues important to
you
46
28
68
25
Has the best qualifications
17
34
3
30
Stands firm on issues and
values
10
3
20
5
Would lead in a new direction
7
8
7
0
Can work with Democrats and
Republicans
9
11
1
28
Unsure
3
2
1
10
Voters were asked to describe the primary reason why they would vote for their first choice
candidate. Overall, likely Democratic primary voters choose candidates who support issues that
are important to [them] (46%), have the best qualifications (17%) and stand firm on issues and
values (10%). Many Clinton supporters cite her political qualifications (34%) and her position on
important issues (28%). Sanders’ support is primarily rooted in the perception that he supports
issues important to [them] (68%). Biden supporters are more likely to say that they support him
because he has the best qualifications (30%) and can work with Democrats and Republicans
(28%).
Which of the following best describes your view toward Hillary
Clinton’s candidacy?
Which of the following best describes your view toward Hillary Clinton’s
candidacy?
You don't
support her
candidacy
13%
Unsure
1%
You are excited
about her
candidacy to
become president
35%
You could support
her, but you're not
enthusiastic
about her
candidacy
51%
Voters were asked to describe their view toward Hillary Clinton’s candidacy. Approximately onehalf (51%) of voters said that they could support her, but they’re not enthusiastic about her
candidacy. Thirty-five percent of voters said that they are excited about her candidacy and 13
percent of voters said that they do not support her candidacy.
Which of the following best describes your view toward Bernie
Sanders’ candidacy?
Which of the following best describes your view toward Bernie Sanders’
candidacy?
Unsure
11%
You don't
support his
candidacy
9%
You are excited
about his
candidacy to
become president
44%
You support some
of his ideas, but
you don't think he
could win a
general election
against the
Republican
nominee
36%
Voters were asked to describe their view toward Bernie Sanders’ candidacy. Slightly less than
one-half of voters said that they are excited about his candidacy to become president (44%).
More than one-third (36%) of voters said that they support some of his ideas, but don’t think he
could win a general election against the Republican nominee and nine percent of voters said
that they do not support his candidacy.
Do you think Vice President Joe Biden should or should not run for
the presidential nomination of the Democratic Party?
Do you think Vice President Joe Biden should or should not run for the
presidential nomination of the Democratic Party?
Unsure
12%
Should
46%
Should Not
42%
Voters were asked whether they think Vice President Joe Biden should run for the presidential
nomination of the Democratic Party. Slightly more voters reported that he should (46%) run than
said he should not (42%). Twelve percent of voters are unsure.
Methodology
The results outlined in this report are based on a survey conducted by RKM Research
and Communications on behalf of Franklin Pierce University and the Boston Herald. All
interviews were conducted by paid, trained and professionally supervised live
interviewers.
The survey is based on a probabilistic sample of 442 likely Democratic presidential
primary voters in New Hampshire. Interviews were conducted by landline and cellular
telephone, August 7-10, 2015. The sampling margin of error is +/- 4.7 percent.
The data are weighted to adjust for probability of selection, respondent sex and
respondent age. In addition to sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of
non-sampling error including question wording effects, question order effects and nonresponse.
More information available at www.rkm-research.com.