Int. J. Production Economics 127 (2010) 147–157 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Int. J. Production Economics journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ijpe The optimal format to sell a product through the internet: Posted price, auction, and buy-price auction Daewon Sun a,1, Erick Li b,2, Jack C. Hayya c, a Department of Management, University of Notre Dame, Room 366, Mendoza CoB, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA Department of Operations Management and Econometrics, The University of Sydney, Room 490, H04 - Merewether Building, NSW 2006, Australia c Department of Supply Chain & Information Systems, The Pennsylvania State University, 362 School of Business, University Park, PA 16802, USA b a r t i c l e in fo abstract Article history: Received 9 November 2009 Accepted 9 May 2010 Available online 1 June 2010 Motivated by the proliferation of online selling, we study a seller’s decision problem: The seller has one unit of product and needs to choose a selling format among three different ones (posted price, auction, and buy-price auction), as well as to decide upon the corresponding decision variables. By incorporating the auction participation cost of the bidders and the operational cost of the seller, we demonstrate that these two costs play an important role in the choice of a selling format. We first characterize and identify the customers’ decision rule for buy-price auction and then present the seller’s optimal choices by comparing the performance of the three formats. Through a comprehensive numerical study, we investigate the performance of the three selling formats by changing the experimental factors. & 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Keywords: Online auction E-commerce Decision making optimization Optimal decision rule Game theory Strategic behavior Pricing 1. Introduction The development of the Internet has led to increased use of electronic commerce in business to business, business to consumers, and consumers to consumers. One of the most noticeable changes is the widespread use of online auctions to sell products through the Internet. This increased interest and demand for online auctions have resulted in the proliferation of online auction sites (e.g., eBay, Yahoo Auctions, UBid, Sam’s Auction, etc.) that allow a seller to establish an online auction for products. Away from the traditional simple auction format or posting, some of the major auction sites have been offering various features and different selling formats. For example, eBay offers various features (adding subtitles, more or larger pictures, bold, highlight, etc.) at additional cost. More interestingly, we note that a seller can even choose a selling format, e.g., eBay offers auction, fixed price, and Buy-ItNow auctions. Yahoo Auction provides similar choices, but Yahoo offers a permanent buy price, whereas eBay’s Buy-It-Now is temporary (i.e., eBay’s Buy-It-Now option disappears immediately after receiving the first bid above a reservation price, but Yahoo’s permanent buy price remains until the end of the auction or a Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 814 862 2219; fax: +1 814 863 7067. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (D. Sun), [email protected] (E. Li), [email protected] (J.C. Hayya). 1 Tel.: + 1 574 631 0982; fax: + 1 574 631 5127. 2 Tel.: + 61 2 9114 0751; fax: + 61 2 9351 6409. 0925-5273/$ - see front matter & 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.ijpe.2010.05.006 customer exercises the buy option). Based on these observations, we study the performance of buy-price auctions (i.e., auctions with a permanent buy price) as compared to pure selling formats. Specifically, we consider a seller who has one unit of product. The seller wants to sell the product through one of the major online stores, but faces a decision problem: to choose a selling format from three choices (posted price, auction, or buy-price auction) and then decide upon the corresponding decision variables, e.g., fixed price or buy price. In this paper, we present analytical models to examine the impact of auction participation and operational costs on the choice of the three selling formats. First, Bajari and Hortacsu (2003, 2004) show empirical evidence of the existence of auction entry costs, stating that ‘‘The analysis of online auctions suggests that entry costs, and hence the endogenous entry decisions of bidders, are indeed quite important, and should be taken into account when modeling the performance of alternative trading rulesy’’ (Bajari and Hortacsu, 2004, p. 483). In incorporating this comment in our present paper, we are assuming that there is disutility to participating in an auction, and, hence, some customers would not bid although they know of the existence of an auction. Second, when a seller uses posted price, it is possible that the valuations of all potential buyers would be lower than the posted price, and hence no sale would take place. When the seller uses auction formats, in the presence of auction participation costs, it is possible that there would be no bidding even though customers observe the auction at a web store. In either circumstance, the seller incurs a non-negative operational cost, which can be 148 D. Sun et al. / Int. J. Production Economics 127 (2010) 147–157 understood in two different ways. One can consider it as an additional holding cost. When the seller is unable to sell the product, she has to keep it until she can find a buyer. Another way to understand the cost is the additional fee to post the product in the next period. For both interpretations, an operational cost would be incurred if the product is not sold. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 discusses the existing literature on comparing selling formats and studying auctions with a buy option. Section 3 describes the problem setting and presents the analysis of buy-price auctions, focusing on characterizing the customers’ decision rule and formulating the seller’s profit function. We demonstrate that there exists a symmetric equilibrium (i.e., a unique threshold for exercising the buy option) and present our formulation of the seller’s expected profit under the buy-price auction. A comparison of the three choices is presented in Section 4. We provide an analytical analysis for the comparison of the pure formats and discuss the performance of the buy-price auctions, as compared to the pure formats, through a comprehensive numerical study. Section 5 discusses our extensions and Section 6 concludes our discussion with future research directions. All proofs are provided in the Appendix. 2. Literature review Since auctions are widely studied, numerous researchers have examined fundamental aspects and invented applications of auctions. For a broad overview of the auction literature, we refer the readers to Wolfstetter (1994), Matthews (1995), and Klemperer (1999) that summarize and explain the overview of auctions. Further, we note that there are a few interesting empirical studies that report on the proliferation and various characteristics of online auctions (see, e.g., Lucking-Reiley, 2000; Roth and Ockenfels, 2002; Ockenfels and Roth, 2002; Bajari and Hortacsu, 2003, 2004). The comparison between auctions and posted price is first considered by Wang (1993). In Wang’s model, a retailer has only one unit and customers arrive stochastically according to a Poisson distribution. He assumes that the retailer incurs different stocking fees for the unit depending on the choice of a selling format: display cost for posted price and storage cost for auctions. He also assumes that storage cost is cheaper than display cost and demonstrates that auctions are preferable when there is no auctioning cost. Further, he shows that auctions with positive auctioning costs can be superior to posted price, when customer valuations are widely dispersed (i.e., the marginal revenue curve is sufficiently stiff). Wang (1998) extends Wang (1993) by considering correlated private valuations. He shows that the main results of the previous study still hold for this relaxed model setting. Kultti (1999) studies the comparison of the two selling formats under a game-theoretic setting where there are multiple sellers and buyers. He demonstrates that the two formats in his model setting are practically equivalent by showing the existence of a Nash equilibrium with co-existence of the two formats. Inventory decisions under auctions have been considered in a few papers. Pinker et al. (2005) consider sequential and multi-unit auctions to dispose of a given number of units. They show that the lot size of sequential auctions decreases from period to period when there exist positive holding costs. Vulcano et al. (2002) consider an auction where a seller has a constant number of units and a random number of buyers arrive during certain periods. They compare the optimal auctions to the optimal list prices and demonstrate that the optimal auctions outperform the optimal list prices under certain conditions (i.e., moderate number of selling periods, constrained capacity, and not too large total volume of sales). They also point out that a wide dispersion of buyers’ valuations and large number of buyers per period make auction favorable. van Ryzin and Vulcano (2004) study a joint inventory-pricing decision under auctions over an infinite horizon. They compare the optimal design of auctions to that of list pricing (Federgruen and Heching, 1999) and demonstrate that auctions outperform list pricing significantly when the number of buyers per period is moderate, holding cost is relatively high, or there exists great uncertainty in demand. The Buy-It-Now option available at eBay has been one of the widely studied features offered by many online auction sites. Budish and Takeyama (2001) demonstrate that the buy price enables a seller to extract a risk premium and hence improve profits when bidders are risk-averse. Their paper sheds light on this interesting topic, but the study is limited in the sense that the model considered has only two bidders and discrete valuation for the product. Matthews (2004) studies an auction with a buy option similar to eBay’s Buy-It-Now (a temporary option). He demonstrates that the seller would set the buy option high enough so that it would not be exercised by bidders, if bidders are indifferent in transaction times (i.e., bidders are time-insensitive). However, he shows that when bidders discount their future utility, the buy price can be set optimally and could lead to higher profits. Wang et al. (2004) discuss the impact of eBay’s Buy-ItNow when there exists auction participation cost and demonstrate that this feature of premature ending with Buy-It-Now price can outperform regular auctions or posted price under certain conditions. Hidvegi et al. (2006) extend Budish and Takeyama (2001)’s work by considering n bidders with continuously distributed valuations. They find that an optimally chosen buy price does not reduce the expected payoff of any agent (the seller or bidders) and increases expected social welfare, when either the seller or bidders are risk-averse. Reynolds and Wooder (2006) also consider the case where bidders are risk-averse, and demonstrate that auctions with buy price are preferable in that the seller can increase expected revenue. Gallien and Gupta (2007) analyze and compare the benefits of temporary and permanent buy price. They consider a model setting where the bidders’ arrival process follows a Poisson distribution and bidding times are endogenized. They find that a permanent buy price makes auction participants bid at the last minute to eliminate other bidders’ opportunity to respond. In contrast, they demonstrate that the first auction participant who sees a temporary buy price should bid immediately to remove the buy option. In terms of seller’s profit, they find that a permanent buy price is superior to a temporary option. There are a few studies that discuss a similar problem: ‘‘Dual Channel’’, where a retailer offers two selling formats (auction and posted price) simultaneously (see, e.g., Etzion et al., 2006; Caldentey and Vulcano, 2007; Sun, 2008). Under ‘‘Dual Channel’’, the retailer optimally allocates multiple units for the two channels. Hence, it is still possible that a customer can buy a product after some other customers already bought some units of the product at a fixed price or made bids for auctions. However, under the buy price option, customers need to take into consideration the fact that the product would not be available after another customer exercised the buy option. Our work is inspired by Wang et al. (2004), who study eBay’s temporary buy option. Although we consider Yahoo Auction’s permanent buy option, our basic model formulation follows theirs. Interestingly, we find that in our model setting the structure of the customer optimal bidding strategy is identical, whether the seller offers a temporary or a permanent buy option. However, we find that the seller’s expected profits are different, which is consistent with Gallien and Gupta (2007)’s finding. Since Wang et al. (2004) present customer bidding strategy under the D. Sun et al. / Int. J. Production Economics 127 (2010) 147–157 uniform distribution, we extend their results by considering a general distribution of customer valuation. In addition, in Section 5 we relax two of major assumptions of the basic model setting and present our findings. To summarize, our focus is to investigate the performance of the permanent buy option and then compare the three selling formats: (1) whether one selling format always dominates the other two or at least one and (2) under what circumstance a particular selling format would be preferable. 3. Model setting and buy-price auctions We first describe the model setting considered in this paper and present our analysis on buy-price auctions. We demonstrate that there exists a unique participation and buy threshold when customer valuations are generally distributed and present the seller’s profit function under the customers’ symmetric equilibrium strategy. 149 Table 1 Notation. h n FðÞ f ðÞ o i vi v P pa pb X(n,i) G(n,i)(v) g(n,i)(v) Unit operational cost Number of customers cdf of customer valuation pdf of customer valuation Auction participation cost Index for customer Customer i’s valuation Participation threshold Probability Auction winning price Buy price ith highest valuation among n customers Probability of Xðn,iÞ r v, where P j nj , i ¼ 1,2, . . . ,n Gðn,iÞ ðvÞ ¼ ji1 ¼ 0 ðn!=ðnjÞ!j!Þ½1FðvÞ ½FðvÞ pdf of G(n,i), where gðn,iÞ ðvÞ ¼ ði=1FðvÞÞðn!=ðniÞ!i!Þ½1FðvÞi ½FðvÞni f ðvÞ,i ¼ 1,2, . . . ,n v buy threshold H(i)(j)(x,y) Joint density function of X(n,i) and X(n,j), where io j k Index for selling format, k¼ p (posted price), a (auction), b (buyprice auction) pk Expected profit with selling format k r Announced price for posted price 3.1. Model and assumptions We consider a seller who wants to sell a single unit of product through an online auction site. Without loss of generality, the procurement cost of the product is normalized at zero. To reflect current practice of the major Internet auction sites, we assume that the seller can choose a selling format among posted price, auction, and buy-price auction. We adopt the second-price auction format to determine the winning price so that our model reflects online bidders’ behavior in major auction sites (last minute bidding and/or sniping, see, e.g., Roth and Ockenfels, 2002; Ockenfels and Roth, 2002). Taking into account the customers’ strategic behavior, the seller has to choose a selling format and set related decision variables, if any, to maximize her profit. If no one buys the product at the end of the period, then the seller incurs a non-negative operational cost, h. We assume that the number of (potential) customers, n, is public information (i.e., the customers and seller know how many customers are interested in the product). Customer valuations are identically and independently distributed. The cumulative distribution function is represented by FðÞ and the density function is represented by f ðÞ. It is also assumed that the customers and seller know only the aggregate information of customers (i.e., they do not know the specific valuations of customers, but know the number of customers and the probability distribution of customer valuations, FðÞ and f ðÞ). We assume that upon a customer’s arrival, the customer does not know how many other customers have already visited the store. Following the findings of existing literature (Bajari and Hortacsu, 2003, 2004), we assume that a customer incurs an auction participation cost ðoÞ if that customer participates in an auction. Table 1 summarizes the notation used in the paper. 3.2. Buy-price auctions Following the existing literature (e.g., Wang et al., 2004; Caldentey and Vulcano, 2007; Gallien and Gupta, 2007), we limit our discussion to the case where the customers use a symmetric equilibrium strategy. Also to reflect the current format of the option (Yahoo Auction, Amazon.com), we assume that the buy option is available until the end of the auction if no customer exercises the buy option. However, note that the product would not be available after a customer exercised the buy option. Facing this type of auction, each customer can therefore take one action among the three choices: (1) buying immediately, (2) bidding, and (3) leaving the store. When there exists non-negative auction participation cost, o, customer i will join the auction if her expected surplus is not negative. Let v be the participation threshold. Then, for a given auction participation cost, o, the expected utility of the customer with valuation vi is E½Utility ¼ E½Surplus by winningo Z vi ¼ ðvi 0ÞP½pa ¼ 0 þ ðvi uÞP½pa ¼ u duo ¼ vi ½Gðn1,1Þ ðvÞ þ Z v vi v ðvi uÞ½gðn1,1Þ ðuÞ duo, ð1Þ where GðÞ and gðÞ represent the cdf and pdf of order statistics, respectively. The expected utility of bidding for an auction with buy price is identical to that of bidding for a pure auction. This can be understood by considering all the possible cases for customer i’s winning. It is easy to see that the customer gets the product when the rest of customer valuations are below the participation threshold, and she pays pa ¼0 and keeps surplus vi. Next, she can get the product if the rest of customer valuations are below her valuation, but the second highest valuation is between the participation threshold and her valuation. In this case, she gets the product by paying the second-highest customer valuation. Except for these two cases, customer i cannot win the product by bidding. Since the expected utility of a customer with valuation v is indifferent between joining or staying out, we replace vi with v in Eq. (1) and have the condition v ½Gðn1,1Þ ðvÞo ¼ 0. Therefore, to derive the threshold, we need to solve one of the following equations: Gðn1,1Þ ðvÞ ¼ o v or FðvÞn1 ¼ o v: ð2Þ Note that the LHS of Eq. (2) is strictly increasing in v and that the RHS of Eq. (2) is a strictly decreasing convex function in v. This implies that when customer valuations are generally distributed, the participation threshold v specified in Eq. (2) exists and is unique. Now consider the buy option. For a given buy price, pb, and participation cost, o, customer i with valuation vi gets (vi pb) utility if the customer chooses to buy immediately. Note that a 150 D. Sun et al. / Int. J. Production Economics 127 (2010) 147–157 customer with valuation v should be indifferent to buying immediately or bidding. Therefore, we have Z v vpb ¼ v ½Gðn1,1Þ ðvÞ þ ðvuÞ½gðn1,1Þ ðuÞ duo: ð3Þ Next, we derive the joint density function H(1)(2)(x,y). We observe that for x 4 y, n! PðX1 A dx,X2 A dy,all otherso yÞ ðn2Þ! n! f ðxÞ dx f ðyÞ dy FðyÞn2 : ¼ ðn2Þ! PðXðn,1Þ A dx,Xðn,2Þ A dyÞ ¼ v Since Eq. (3) does not yield a closed-form solution for a general distribution, we need to investigate whether there exist multiple buy thresholds. Now we demonstrate the characteristics of the buy threshold. Proposition 1. There exists a unique buy threshold, v, for any given pb. Specifically, If the buy price is set higher than the participation threshold ðpb ZvÞ, then there exists a unique buy threshold, v ðv ZvÞ, that solves Z v Gðn1,1Þ ðuÞ du: ð4Þ pb ¼ v v Hence, the joint density function satisfies ( nðn1Þf ðxÞf ðyÞFðyÞn2 if x 4 y4 0, Hð1Þð2Þ ðx,yÞ ¼ 0 otherwise: It should be mentioned that Z vZ x Z vZ yHð1Þð2Þ ðx,yÞ dy dx ¼ v v Z v ¼ To summarize, a customer’s (with valuation vi) symmetric equilibrium strategy for buy-price auctions is as follows: If v o pb , then leave the store, if vi o v, J bid vi, if v r vi ov, J buy immediately at the buy price, if vi Z v. If v Z pb , then J leave the store, if vi o pb , J buy immediately at the buy price, if vi Z pb . J Now we consider the seller’s expected profit for buy-price auctions and limit the discussion to the case where v opb , since the other case is straightforward. We note that there could be three outcomes from the auction. First, the seller is unable to sell the product, because all customer valuations are less than the participation threshold, v, and an operational cost occurs. Second, a customer buys immediately at the buy price when at least one customer’s valuation is higher than the buy threshold v. Third, there will be an auction winner. Therefore, the seller’s expected profit can be expressed as Z vZ x pb ¼ h ½FðvÞn þð1½FðvÞn Þ pb þ yHð1Þð2Þ ðx,yÞ dy dx, v v where the first term captures the expected operational cost due to a no bid; the second captures the expected profit when at least one customer valuation is higher than v; and the third captures the expected winning price conditioned on both the first-highest and second-highest valuations lying between v and v. Additionally, when the second highest valuation is less than v and the highest valuation is between v and v, the winning price is zero but the seller does not incur an operational cost. v y Z yHð1Þð2Þ ðx,yÞ dx dy v f ðxÞ dx dy y v ¼ ðv ¼ pb Þ. This result can be understood as follows. When the buy price, pb, is set above the participation threshold, v, the buy threshold, v is greater than the buy price. Therefore, some customers whose valuation is between pb and v participate in the auction by expecting to win the auction at a lower price (hence, higher expected utility compared to buying immediately). However, it may happen that the winning price of the auction is higher than the buy price, which implies that the winner is paying more than the buy price. Now consider the other case when the buy price is set too low ðpb o vÞ. In this case, all customers whose valuation is higher than the buy price prefer buying immediately. Therefore, the winning price of the auction cannot exceed the buy price. ynðn1Þf ðyÞFðyÞn2 v Z ynðn1Þf ðyÞFðyÞn2 ðFðvÞFðyÞÞ dy v Otherwise ðpb o vÞ, the buy threshold is equal to the buy price v ð5Þ r Z v ynðn1Þf ðyÞFðyÞn2 ð1FðyÞÞ dy ¼ v Z v v yg ðn,2Þ ðyÞ dy: Further derivation of analytical results concerning the profit function pb is intractable. 4. Analysis of the seller’s choices This section discusses the performance of the three selling formats. Our analysis seeks both to derive analytical results and to develop managerial insights through comprehensive numerical experiments, when the analytical analysis is intractable. 4.1. Pure formats Since it is difficult to obtain closed-form solutions for the two selling formats under a general distribution, we consider a special case to gain managerial insights. Suppose that customer valuations are uniformly distributed on support [0,1]. Then, the seller’s profit under posted price (Eq. (9) in Appendix A.1) becomes pp ðrÞ ¼ ½1ðrÞn rh ðrÞn : Next, consider the case where the seller opens an auction for the product. The seller’s expected profit from the auction (Eq. (12) in Appendix A.2) becomes Z 1 pa ¼ u ½nðn1Þð1uÞun2 duh o: o1=n We are ready to compare the expected profit between posted price and pure auction. 4.1.1. The impact of participation and holding costs As a benchmark, we consider a case where auction participation and operational cost are ignored (i.e., o ¼ 0 and h¼0). Since the expected profits are 1 1 1=n n1 , pp ¼ 1 and pa ¼ n þ1 1 þ n n þ1 we observe Lemma 1. When o ¼ 0 and h¼0, pure auction dominates posted price if there are more than two potential buyers (i.e., n 4 2). Otherwise (i.e., n r 2), posted price is strictly better than pure auction. D. Sun et al. / Int. J. Production Economics 127 (2010) 147–157 Since it is more likely that there will be more than two customers for a product, this result reinforces the conventional belief that auction is preferable (see, e.g., Wang, 1993, 1998; Kultti, 1999). Next, we investigate the impact of auction participation cost. Lemma 2. When o 4 0 & h¼0, for any given nð Z3Þ, there exists a unique threshold, o , such that if o r o , then pure auction dominates posted price; otherwise ðo 4 o Þ, posted price dominates pure auction. Fig. 1 demonstrates the impact of the two costs on the cutoff point where the seller is indifferent to choosing between posted price and auction. Finally, we find Proposition 2. For any given nð Z 3Þ and h 40, 1. there is only one intersection, o , of the two profit functions, 2. if o r o , then pure auction dominates posted price. Otherwise ðo 4 o Þ, posted price dominates pure auction, and 3. if the optimal price of posted price is greater than the participation threshold ðr 4vÞ, then the intersection is strictly greater than the intersection when there is no operational cost ðo 4 o Þ. The first result is illustrated in Fig. 2(a), and the impact of the two costs is illustrated in Fig. 2(b). As can be seen, if the participation threshold is relatively low, taking into account operational cost makes auctions preferable. However, if there is relatively higher participation cost, the consideration of operational cost results in posted price being a more attractive selling format. profit to the seller (e.g., the upper limit of customer value). In fact, this belief is half-true. Lemma 3. When o 4 0, it holds that (1) limd-1 pp ¼ 1; and (2) limn-1 pa ¼ 1hooð1lnoÞ o 1. This result demonstrates that the expected profit of posted price does converge to 1, but that of auctions does not when auction participation cost is positive. Observation 1. For any given o,h 4 0, there exists n1 r n2 such that when n rn1 , posted price dominates auction; when n1 o n o n2 , auction dominates posted-price; when n Zn2 , posted price dominates auction. We provide a numerical example to illustrate Observation 1 when h ¼ o ¼ 0:02. As can be seen in Table 2, posted price dominates when n ¼2 or n Z 23. Table 2 Optimal solutions and profits ðh ¼ o ¼ 0:02Þ. 4.1.2. The impact of the number of customers A common belief is that when the number of customers is infinite, both posted price or auction should give the maximum 0.06 n pp rn pa pb pb 2 3 4 22 23 24 25 50 0.3783 0.4625 0.5310 0.8286 0.8338 0.8387 0.8433 0.9059 0.5707 0.6250 0.6648 0.8663 0.8701 0.8737 0.8770 0.9240 0.3148 0.4677 0.5577 0.8289 0.8320 0.8348 0.8374 0.8689 0.3394 0.4922 0.5811 0.8524 0.8557 0.8588 0.8617 0.9059 0.4556 0.6204 0.7062 0.9247 0.9265 0.9281 0.9297 0.9240 1 Posted Price dominates. 0.055 Holding Cost Cutoff Participation Cost Cutoff 151 0.05 0.045 0.04 Auction dominates. 0.035 0.03 0.8 Auction dominates. 0.6 0.4 0.2 Posted Price dominates. 0 3 4 5 6 7 3 8 4 5 6 7 Number of Customers Number of Customers Fig. 1. Changes of cutoff point by varying costs: (a) impact of participating cost, h ¼0.15 and (b) impact of operational cost, o ¼ 0:05. 0.59 0.07 Participation Cost Posted Price Auction 0.58 Profit 0.57 0.56 0.55 0.54 0.53 Posted Price dominates. 0.06 0.05 0.04 Auction dominates. 0.03 0.02 0 0.1 0.2 Operational Cost 0.3 0.4 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Operational Cost Fig. 2. Graphical illustration of Proposition 2: (a) profit comparison (n¼ 5, o ¼ 0:05) and (b) impact of h and o. 0.6 0.7 152 D. Sun et al. / Int. J. Production Economics 127 (2010) 147–157 4.2. Performance of buy-price auctions Since analytical analysis of buy-price auctions is not tractable, we conduct a comprehensive computational experiment to derive managerial insights. In the experiment, we vary the three parameters (i.e., n A f5,10,20,40,80,160g, hA f0:05,0:1,0:15,0:2,0:25,0:3g, and o A f0:01,0:02,0:03,0:04,0:05,0:06g). The selection of these parameter values was made by surveying some existing literature, e.g., Bajari and Hortacsu (2003, 2004), van Ryzin and Vulcano (2004), and Bhargava et al. (2006). To summarize, we have a total of 216 (¼6 6 6) cases and 648 (¼216 3) optimal solution sets for the three selling formats. For the sake of clarity, we write down the profit function for buy-price auction as follows: 8 h o þ ð1v n Þ pb > > > < n1 ðv n þ 1 oðn þ 1Þ=n Þðn1Þoðvo1=n Þ if pb Z o1=n ; pb ðpb Þ ¼ þ nþ1 > > > : ½1ðp Þn p h ðp Þn otherwise: b b b 1=n In particular, when pb Z o (i.e., when the buy price is set higher than the participation threshold), v is determined by 8 1o > > > , if pb 41 <1 n v¼ 1 n > > otherwise: > arg pb ¼ v ðv oÞ : n Since buy-price auctions are identical to posted price when pb o o1=n (i.e., when the buy price is set lower than the participation threshold), buy-price auctions weakly dominate posted price. To understand this result, recall that when the buy option is set lower than the participation threshold, Buy-Price Auctions and Posted Price are identical (i.e., they have the same expected profit). However, when the seller is able to make more profit by setting the buy option higher than the participation threshold, Buy-Price Auctions outperform Posted Price. Therefore, Buy-Price Auctions weakly dominate Posted Price. For comparison, we assume that the seller prefers posted price to buy-price auctions when the performances are identical. We Table 3 Summary of sensitivity analysis by varying parameters. Change r pp v pa pb v pb nm hm om m k – m k – m – m m k k m – k m – k m k k conduct a sensitivity analysis to see the general behavior of the optimal solutions, thresholds, and profits by varying the key parameters. Observation 2. The impacts of the three parameters ðn,h, oÞ are as follows: 1. The increase of the number of customers, n, results in an increase in profit, selling price, auction winning price, optimal buy price, and the two thresholds. 2. As the operational cost, h, increases, the optimal posted selling price and the profit of the three selling formats decrease. 3. The increase of participation cost, o, causes a reduction of profit from pure auctions and buy-price auctions. As the participation cost increases, the participation threshold increases, but the buy threshold and optimal buy price decrease. The above observations are summarized in Table 3. First, the impact of the parameters on posted price is intuitive. Specifically, an increase in the number of customers will result in a higher optimal price and profit, but operational cost plays a negative role in both of them. As expected, the increase of operational and participation cost reduces the seller’s profit from auctions (pure and buy-price auctions); however, an increase in the number of customers will result in higher profit. Second, we observe that the participation threshold increases as participation cost and the number of customers increase (refer to Fig. 3(a)). The impact of the participation cost is not surprising, and that of the number of customers can be easily understood when we consider the stochasticity of auctions. Specifically, when there are many customers, uncertainty is reduced, and hence the participation threshold will be increased as compared to one with fewer customers. The behavior of the optimal buy price is identical to that of the buy threshold. The impact of the number of customers can be understood by considering the stochastic nature of auctions, and the seller sets a higher buy price to maximize the profit as the participation threshold increases (refer to Fig. 3(b)). Finally, the buy threshold increases as the number of customers increases, because there is a higher probability that at least one customer’s valuation is higher than the threshold when there are many customers. We observe that the increase in participation cost results in a decrease of the buy threshold. The most interesting question concerning the performance of buy-price auctions would be whether this selling format Fig. 3. Impact of participation cost ðoÞ on threshold ðvÞ and buy price (pb): (a) participation threshold ðvÞ and (b) optimal buy price (pb). D. Sun et al. / Int. J. Production Economics 127 (2010) 147–157 153 Fig. 4. Performance of buy-price auction: (a) percentage of profit increase compared to auctions (i.e., ðpb pa Þ=pa ) and (b) percentage of profit increase compared to posted price (i.e., ðpb pp Þ=pp ). dominates the pure formats or at least one of them. Surprisingly, we observe. Observation 3. Buy-price auctions outperform pure auctions; however, posted price can outperform buy-price auctions. This is interesting in the sense that one would think that the hybrid format might increase the seller’s profit, but our observation suggests that the seller needs to choose the selling format by carefully considering the three parameters (n, h, and o). Now we shed light on the favorable conditions for a selling format. We compare two auction formats. It is easy to see that operational cost does not play any role in choosing an auction format, since the change in operational cost will produce an identical impact on both auction formats. By investigating the results of our experiment, we find that the buy option is preferable when there is a large number of customers and participation cost (refer to Fig. 4(a)), which can be easily understood when we consider the stochasticity and the impact of the participation cost on pure auctions. Specifically, when the seller has a large number of customers, it is more likely that the product will be sold through buy price, and hence the buy option is preferable. Further, participation cost plays a negative role on the performance of pure auctions. Therefore, the hybrid selling format is desirable when there exists high a participation cost. Next, we consider the performance of posted price and auctions with a buy option. Although the impact of the three parameters for this comparison is not straightforward, we observe the following: 5. Extensions and discussion In this paper, we use a stylized model to ensure the tractability of the analysis. Now we discuss the implications of relaxing some of our assumptions. First, we present our findings on the relaxation of the deterministic number of customers. Second, we discuss the role of reservation price on the expected profit and the customers’ optimal strategy. 5.1. Random number of customer To incorporate the stochasticity of potential customers, we use l to denote the random number of customers, where l Z 1. First, we consider the posted price format. When the posted price is set to be r, a customer i with valuation vi greater than r will buy the product. Hence, the expected profit for the seller is pp ðrÞ ¼ PrðSellingÞ rPrðNotSellingÞ h 1 X ¼ Prðl ¼ nÞ Z 1 r n Z f ðuÞ du r 0 n¼1 ¼ rðr þhÞ 1 X r n f ðuÞ du h 0 n Prðl ¼ dÞFðrÞ : ð6Þ n¼1 We find Lemma 4. When customer valuations are uniformly distributed between 0 and 1, there exists a unique solution that maximizes the seller’s profit specified in Eq. (6). Observation 4. 1. As operational cost increases, buy-price auctions perform better. 2. When the operational cost is high, a small number of customers and low participation cost make auctions with buy option preferable (refer to Fig. 4(b)). Our observations demonstrate that the seller should consider using buy-price auctions when there is a small number of customers, high operational cost, and low participation cost. In addition, we find that the hybrid selling format is not always preferable. Therefore, the seller needs to carefully consider the three important factors in choosing the best selling format for a product. Next, consider the pure auction. Consistent with our early analysis, we assume that each customer uses a threshold policy with the same participation threshold v. Conditioning on n customer, customer i’s expected surplus for winning the auction is given in Eq. (11) in Appendix A.2. Hence, the customer’s expected surplus with a random number of customers is ( ) Z vi 1 X EðUÞ ¼ o þ Prðl ¼ nÞ vi ½Gðn1,1Þ ðvÞþ ðvi uÞ½gðn1,1Þ ðuÞ du : n¼1 v Now note that the participation threshold v must satisfy o¼ 1 X n¼1 Prðl ¼ nÞv ½Gðn1,1Þ ðvÞ: ð7Þ 154 D. Sun et al. / Int. J. Production Economics 127 (2010) 147–157 When Gðn1,1Þ ðvÞ is strictly increasing (e.g., the value density function f ðxÞ 4 0 for any x), the RHS is strictly increasing, which implies Lemma 5. When the probability density function of customer valuations satisfies f ðxÞ 4 0 for any x, then there exists a unique participation threshold that solves Eq. (7). Finally, consider a buy-price auction. If customer i chooses to bid, her expected surplus with a random number of customers is ( ) Z vi 1 X EðUÞ ¼ o þ Prðl ¼ nÞ vi ½Gðn1,1Þ ðvÞþ ðvi uÞ½gðn1,1Þ ðuÞ du : n¼1 o¼ Reservation price Participation threshold Valuation Action 0oRrv v o pb vi o v v r vi o v vi Z v vi o p b vi Z p b Leave the store Bid vi Buy immediately Leave the store Buy immediately vi o R R r vi o v vi Z v vi o p b vi Z p b Leave the store Bid vi Buy immediately Leave the store Buy immediately v Z pb v o Ro v v o pb v v Z pb It is easy to see that the participation threshold v satisfies 1 X Table 4 Customers’ optimal strategic choice with minimum bid amount. Prðl ¼ nÞv ½Gðn1,1Þ ðvÞ, n¼1 which is the same as the auction threshold. Now we see that the buyout threshold satisfies ( ) Z v 1 X vpb ¼ o þ Prðl ¼ nÞ v ½Gðn1,1Þ ðvÞ þ ðvuÞ½gðn1,1Þ ðuÞ du : n¼1 v amount is more effective, the secret reservation price is widely used. In addition, the choice between secret and public reservation might depend on many other factors not considered in our paper, e.g., different item prices, risk aversion, etc. Hence, studying the two reservation price options with a richer model calls for future research. ð8Þ We find 6. Conclusion and future directions Lemma 6. When there exists a solution that solves Eq. (8), the buyout threshold is unique. We note that it is possible that Eq. (8) has no solution. For instance, when the participation cost is too high, it is always optimal to buy the product if v 4pb . Our result indicates that except for this extreme case, there exists a unique buyout threshold. 5.2. Reservation price In most online auction sites, a seller can use a reservation price option to ensure a minimum auction winning price. For example, in eBay’s auctions there are two types of this feature: secret reservation price and minimum bid amount (public reservation price). Since Katkar and Reiley (2006) found that public reservation price outperforms the secret one, we discuss the implications of our results when the seller incorporates the minimum bid amount feature. First, note that when a minimum bid amount is added to our model setting, there are three possible cases: 0 o R rv, v oR o v, and R Zv, where R represents the minimum bid amount. Next, it is easy to see that the third case (i.e., R Zv) cannot happen unless the seller sets the minimum bid amount above the buy price. In other words, when the seller sets the minimum bid amount below the buy price, then the buy threshold is always greater than the reservation price (i.e., R opb ov). Therefore, we only need to consider the first two cases and find Lemma 7. When there exists a minimum bid amount, the customers’ optimal strategy is as summarized in Table 4: Given this customers’ optimal strategy, the analysis of the seller’s profit compared to no minimum bid amount is rather straightforward. First, the seller’s expected profit is unchanged when 0 oR rv. Next, we see that the seller’s profit decreases when v o R ov. This result can be easily understood by considering the fact that R serves as the participation threshold. As we discussed earlier, as the participation threshold increases, the seller’s profit decreases. Finally, we emphasize that the analysis in incorporating the secret reservation price would be a good extension of our study. Although Katkar and Reiley (2006) found that the minimum bid The widespread use of the Internet has caused many changes in the way business transactions are made, and correspondingly new creative selling formats and technologies are being developed. Some examples are online auctions, reverse online auctions, eBay’s reputation mechanism, eBay’s Buy-it-Now (temporary option), Yahoo’s Buy price (permanent option), price comparison engines, etc. In this paper, we investigate choosing the best selling format for a product. We characterize the customers’ strategic behavior and then derive the seller’s profit function for each selling format by incorporating customers’ strategic decision making. We compare pure selling formats and demonstrate that one does not dominate the other, and that there exists a unique cutoff that determines the preferred selling format. In general, the existence of auction participation cost reduces the efficiency of auctions, but the consideration of operational cost induces the seller to prefer auctions. When we include buy-price auctions in the choice set, we find that posted price can outperform buy-price auctions. Therefore, a careful consideration of the important factors (number of customers, auction participation cost, and operational cost) can guide the seller in choosing the best selling format. In this paper, we formulate the problem in a stylized manner. Of course, a more realistic and richer model can be used to analyze the same problem; however, the model we present is sufficient to capture the main managerial insights without losing tractability. We believe that our analytical analysis and observations from the computational experiment provide another explanation why online auctions do not dominate e-commerce transactions. Further, our study explains why we can observe the three selling formats on the major auction sites. Our future studies include a generalization of the results and investigation of the problem in the environment of a more general model setting. Acknowledgements The authors are grateful for valuable comments on earlier drafts of this work from Hemant K. Bhargava, Alan L. Montgomery, Xin Wang, Susan H. Xu, and conference participants at 37th Annual Meeting of the Decision Science Institute (DSI2006) and D. Sun et al. / Int. J. Production Economics 127 (2010) 147–157 18th Annual Conference of POMS (2007). This article was improved with the exhaustive and instructive comments of two anonymous reviewers. Appendix A. Pure posted price and auctions For completeness, this appendix discusses pure posted price and auctions. For pure auctions, we demonstrate that there exists a unique participation threshold when customer valuations are generally distributed and show that both the seller’s expected profit and the customer’s expected surplus are decreasing in auction participation cost. A.1. Posted price When the seller chooses the posted price selling format, her decision is to announce a fixed price, r. After announcing the fixed price, we assume that customers are risk-neutral in that if customer i with valuation vi finds that vi Zr, that customer will buy the product. Since operational cost occurs only when all the customer valuations are less than the fixed price, the expected profit for the seller with posted price, r, is pp ðrÞ ¼ PðSellingÞ rPðNotSellingÞ h Z ¼ 1 r n Z f ðuÞ du r 0 r n f ðuÞ du h 0 ¼ rðr þ hÞ½FðrÞn : ð9Þ 155 highest bidder’s valuation is less than v and the highest bidder’s valuation is higher than v, the winning price is zero, but the seller does not incur an operational cost. Although deriving closed-form solutions of Eq. (12) is analytically intractable, we see Lemma 9. Under the auction format, the seller’s expected profit and the bidder’s expected utility are both decreasing in o. This result is intuitive in that as the auction participation cost, o, increases, the customer’s expected utility decreases (refer to Eq. (1)), and the seller’s expected profit decreases due to the fact that fewer customers will participate in the auction. This result implies one important managerial insight. It is in the seller’s interest to lower the auction participation cost, if possible, because a lower o leads to a higher expected profit. Therefore, this result can explain why many bidding assistance features (e.g., automatic bidding) are widely offered and used in Internet auctions and partly why auctions have proliferated after the development of the Internet. Appendix B. Technical details and proofs Proof of Proposition 1. Using integration by parts, Eq. (3) becomes Z v vpb ¼ v ½Gðn1,1Þ ðvÞ þ ðvuÞ½gðn1,1Þ ðuÞ duo v The first-order condition of Eq. (9) yields ¼ v ½Gðn1,1Þ ðvÞ þ ½ðvuÞGðn1,1Þ ðuÞv v þ @pp ðrÞ ¼ 1½FðrÞn nðr þhÞ½FðrÞn1 f ðrÞ ¼ 0, @r ð10Þ ¼ v ½Gðn1,1Þ ðvÞ þ which determines the optimal posted price. We see Z Z v ½Gðn1,1Þ ðuÞ duo v v ½Gðn1,1Þ ðuÞ duo ¼ v Z v ½Gðn1,1Þ ðuÞ du, v n Lemma 8. There exists a unique price, r , that maximizes pp ðrÞ, when the distribution of customer valuations has an increasing failure rate (i.e., f ðrÞ=ð1FðrÞÞ is increasing in r). ð13Þ Most of the commonly used distributions satisfy the condition of increasing failure rate. Finally, from Eq. (9), it is easy to see that the seller’s expected profit, pp ðrÞ, is decreasing in operational cost, h. where the last equation is derived by using Eq. (2) (i.e., v ½Gðn1,1Þ ðvÞ ¼ o). Let 8 Ry if y Z v, < y ½Gðn1,1Þ ðuÞ du v LðyÞ ¼ : 0 otherwise: A.2. Pure auction format For the case with pb Z v, we have two scenarios. Now consider pure auctions when customers use the symmetric participation strategy. If a customer with valuation vi chooses to bid, the expected utility is (1) xi is unbounded. We see that @LðyÞ=@y ¼ 1Gðn1,1Þ ðyÞ 4 0, which implies that LðÞ is strictly increasing and unbounded. Because Lð1Þ ¼ 1 and LðvÞ ¼ v rpb , there exists a unique solution v ð Zpb Þ such that LðvÞ ¼ pb . (2) xi is bounded, i.e., xi rM. If LðMÞ 4 pb , then L(y)¼pb has a unique solution v ðM 4 v Zpb Þ; if LðMÞ o pb , then v ¼ M, i.e., no customer will buy immediately. E½Utility ¼ E½Surplus by winningo Z vi ¼ vi ½Gðn1,1Þ ðvÞ þ ðvi uÞ½gðn1,1Þ ðuÞ duo: ð11Þ v Since Eq. (11) is identical to Eq. (1), it is easy to see that the participation threshold with buy price is identical to that with pure auction. Then, the seller’s expected profit can be expressed as Z 1 pa ¼ yg ðn,2Þ ðyÞ dyh Gðn,1Þ ðvÞ: ð12Þ v This can be understood as follows. When the second highest bidder has valuation Xðn,2Þ Z v, there will be an auction winner and the winning price is Xðn,2Þ , captured by the first term in Eq. (12). When the highest bidder’s valuation is lower than v, no bidding occurs and the seller incurs the operational cost, captured by the second term in the RHS of Eq. (12). Note that when the second On the other hand, when pb ov, it holds that LðvÞ ¼ v 4 pb , implying that all customers whose valuation is higher than the buy price pb will choose to buy immediately. As such, v ¼ pb . & Proof of Lemma 1. By taking the difference of two profit functions, we have " 1=n # 1 1 nn E½pa E½pp ¼ 1 : n þ1 1þ n It is easy to see that ðE½pa E½pp Þjn ¼ 1 o 0, ðE½pa E½pp Þjn ¼ 2 o0 and ðE½pa E½pp Þjn ¼ 3 40: Now we show that if n Z4, E½pa 4E½pp . To this end, we rewrite 156 D. Sun et al. / Int. J. Production Economics 127 (2010) 147–157 the difference of the profit functions as " " 1=n # 1=n # 1 1 1 1 E½pa E½pp ¼ 4 n1n n1n nþ1 1þn nþ1 n qffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi 1 n n ðn1Þn nn1 : ¼ nþ1 We note that both (n 1)n and nn 1 are increasing functions in n and that the tangent of (n 1)n is greater than that of nn 1. Therefore, there must be only one intersection or no intersection of two functions on n. It can be easily shown that there is only one intersection, which occurs between 3 and 4. This implies that ðn1Þn 4 nn1 (and hence E½pa 4 E½pp ) if n Z 4. & Proof of Lemma 2. Note that E½pa is strictly decreasing in o (Lemma 9) and that E½pp is a constant. By Lemma 1, E½pa jo ¼ 0 4 E½pp jo ¼ 0 when n Z 3. Combining these implies that there is only one intersection (i.e., o ) and that E½pa 4 E½pp ðE½pa oE½pp Þ, if o o o (o 4 o , respectively). & Proof of Proposition 2. The first and second part of Proposition 2 can be proved by following the same procedures in Lemmas 9 and 2. To prove the third part, note that o is the intersection of ðn1Þ½1ðn þ 1Þ o þ n oðn þ 1Þ=n , nþ1 ð1pn Þ p ¼ ð14Þ and that o is the intersection of ð1pn Þ ph pn ¼ ðn1Þ½1ðn þ 1Þ o þ n oðn þ 1Þ=n h o: n þ1 ð15Þ ðn1Þ½1ðn þ 1Þ o þ n oðn þ 1Þ=n þ h ðpn oÞ: nþ1 ð16Þ The LHS of Eq. (16) is identical to that of Eq. (14) and both are constant in o. Since the RHS of Eq. (16) is larger than that of Eq. (14) when pn 4 o, the intersection of Eq. (16) must be greater than that of Eq. (14) when the precondition of Proposition 2 is satisfied. & Proof of Lemma 4. The first derivative of the seller’s expected profit (i.e., Eq. (6)) with respect to r is 1 1 X X dpp ðrÞ ¼ 1ðr þ hÞ Prðl ¼ nÞnFðrÞn1 f ðrÞ Prðl ¼ nÞFðrÞn , dr n¼1 n¼1 and the second derivative is d2 pp ðrÞ dr 2 ¼ ðr þ hÞ 1 X df ðrÞ Prðl ¼ nÞn ðn1ÞFðrÞn2 f ðrÞ þ FðrÞn1 dr n¼1 1 X Prðl ¼ nÞnFðrÞn1 f ðrÞ n¼1 1 X Prðl ¼ nÞnFðrÞn1 f ðrÞ: n¼1 Now note that f(r)¼1 and df ðrÞ=dr ¼ 0 when customer valuations are uniformly distributed between 0 and 1. Then, pp ðrÞ is guaranteed to be concave. This completes the proof. & Proof of Lemma 6. Suppose that v is given. The first derivative of the LHS of Eq. (8) with respect to v is 1 and that of the RHS is ( ) Z v 1 X @RHS ¼ Prðl ¼ nÞ ½Gðn1,1Þ ðvÞ þ gðn1,1Þ ðuÞ du @v v n¼1 ¼ 1 X 1¼ nðr þ hÞðFðrÞÞn1 f ðrÞ nðr þ hÞðFðrÞÞn1 f ðrÞ ¼ jðrÞ: ¼ n 1ðFðrÞÞ 1 þFðrÞ þ þ ðFðrÞÞn1 1FðrÞ If f1 ðrÞ and f2 ðrÞ are two non-negative increasing functions of r, then the product of f1 ðrÞ and f2 ðrÞ is also non-negative and increasing in r. By the definition of increasing failure rate, f ðrÞ=ð1FðrÞÞ is non-negative and increasing in r. Also, r + h and ðFðrÞÞn1 =ð1þ FðrÞ þ þ ðFðrÞÞn1 Þ are non-negative and increasing in r. Therefore, jðrÞ is non-negative and increasing in r. Furthermore, it can be verified that jð0Þ ¼ 0 and jð1Þ ¼ 1. Therefore, there exists a unique solution, rn, such that jðr Þ ¼ 1. In other words, the first-order condition yields a unique solution. & Proof of Lemma 9. According to the equation Gðn1,1Þ ðvÞ ¼ o=v, we apply the implicit function theorem and obtain @v v ¼ @o v 2 gðn1,1Þ ðvÞ þ 14 0, which implies that when o increases, v increases. When v R1 v y gðn,2Þ ðyÞ dy reduces (e.g., the integral increases, the integral interval ðv,1Þ shrinks) and so does the second term in Eq. (12). Therefore, pa is decreasing in o. On the other hand, the bidder’s expected utility is given by Z vi ðvi uÞ½gðn1,1Þ ðuÞ duo: Ua ¼ vi ½Gðn1,1Þ ðvÞ þ v Taking the first derivative with respect to o, we obtain We rewrite the latter equation as ð1pn Þ p ¼ Proof of Lemma 8. Rearranging Eq. (10), we have Prðl ¼ nÞ½Gðn1,1Þ ðvÞ, n¼1 which can be obtained from the Leibniz Rule. Since Gðn1,1Þ ðvÞ o1 for any v o M, where M is the upper bound of the customer valuation, we see that @RHS=@v o1. Hence, if Eq. 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