Impact evaluation of an SME program
Attila Béres
National Development Agency
Hungary
Program characteristics
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Grants to SMEs for modernization
Purchase of equipments
Maximum grant 25 M Ft (~100 000 €)
Private contribution min. 50%
~9000 applicants
~3500 beneficiaries
Assistance approved 42 Bn Ft
(~170 Mn €)
Questions
• Did assisted SMEs invest more?
– Differences in the growth of tangible assets
between the treated and the control groups
• Did assisted SMEs grow faster?
– Differences in the growth of net sales
between the treated and the control groups
Groups of interest
• Did not apply for grants
– Control group: 62 963 SMEs
• Applied but did not win
– „Treated” group: 1 134 SMEs
• Applied for grants and won
– Treated group: 981 SMEs
In total approx. 8% of Hungarian SMEs
Group characteristics
Methodologies
• Simple regression
– have to control for all important variables
• Difference-in-differences (DiD)
– unobservable factors are time invariant
• Propensity Score Matching (PSM)
– controls for time-varying unobservables
Intuition behind PSM
Results of matching - 2004
Results of matching - 2005
Results of matching - 2006
Summary
• Assisted SMEs were bigger and grew
faster even before the program
• Significant effects on investments even
in the short run
• No significant effects on growth (at
least not in the short run)
• Significant effects on investment even
for those SMEs, which applied for but
did not win
Number of SMEs with matching
Numeric results (without PSM)
Numeric results (with PSM)
Limitations
• This method is applicable only for
measuring the effects on the assisted
SMEs
• Can not catch multiplicator or nationwide impacts
• To catch those impacts one need
macroeconomic models
Impact evaluation sources
• OECD Framework for the Evaluation of SME
and Entrepreneurship Policies and
Programmes
• NONIE
– http://www.worldbank.org/ieg/nonie/index.
html
• American Evaluation Association
– http://www.eval.org/
• Canadian Evaluation Society
– http://www.evaluationcanada.ca/
• Institute for Fiscal Studies
– http://www.ifs.org.uk/
• …
Thank you for your attention!
E-mail: [email protected]
Web: www.nfu.gov.hu