Foreign Policy
CHAPTER FOUR
Dr. Clayton Thyne
PS 235-001: World Politics
Spring 2008
Goldstein & Pevehouse,
International Relations, 8/e
Student notes version
Making Foreign Policy
• Purpose:
• Foreign policies (def):
–
–
Making Foreign Policy
• Comparative foreign policy
– Study of foreign policy in various states in order to…
– 3 approaches:
• How does size, wealth and dem  FP decisions?
• How do populations, natural resources and technology  FP
decisions?
• How does a state’s political culture and history  FP
decisions?
• Foreign policy outcomes result from multiple
forces at various levels of analysis.
Models of Decision Making
• Rational model
– Decision makers set goals, evaluate their relative
importance, calculate the costs and benefits of each
possible course of action, and then choose the one
with the highest benefits and lowest costs.
– EUwar = Prvictory(Uvictory) – (1-Prvictory)(Closing)
– Role of uncertainty
– Accepting of risk versus averse to risk
Models of Decision Making
• Organizational process model
–
• Government bargaining (bureaucratic) model
–
Individual Decision Makers
• Study of individual decision making revolves around the
question of rationality.
–
• Difficulties of oversimplification
–
–
• We can…
-
Individual Decision Makers
Beyond individual idiosyncrasies, individual decision
making diverges from the rational model in at least three
systematic ways:
1.
Decision makers suffer from…
2.
Affective bias:
3.
Cognitive bias:
Individual Decision Makers
• Two specific modifications of the rational model
of decision making have been proposed to
accommodate psychological realities.
– Bounded rationality
– Prospect theory
Estimates of Probabilities of Death From Various Causes
Cause
Subject Estimates
Statistical Estimates
Heart Disease
0.22
0.34
Cancer
0.18
0.23
Other Natural Causes
0.33
0.35
All Natural Causes
0.73
0.92
Accident
0.32
0.05
Homicide
0.10
0.01
Other Unnatural Causes
0.11
0.02
All Unnatural Causes
0.53
0.08
Group Psychology
• Group dynamics can be a promoter of state interests but
they can also introduce new sources of irrationality into
the decision-making process.
– Positive:
– Negative:
• Group psychology:
– Groupthink (def):
– Groups tend to be overly…
Figure 4.3
Crisis Management
• Crises (def):
– Stress amplifies bias
– Rules are often circumvented
Domestic Politics
• Foreign policy is shaped not only by the internal
dynamics of individual and group decision
making but also by the states and societies
within which decision makers operate.
Bureaucracies
• Bureaucracies:
• Diplomats
– Virtually all states maintain a diplomatic corps, or foreign service, of
diplomats in embassies in foreign capitals
– Includes…
– Tension common between state leaders and foreign policy bureaucrats
• Interagency tensions
– Bureaucratic rivalry as an influence on foreign policy challenges the
notion of states as unitary actors in the international system.
Interest Groups
• Interest groups (def):
• Lobbying
– The process of…
– Three important elements:
1.
2.
3.
The Military Industrial Complex
• Def:
• Response to the growing importance of technology
• Encompasses a variety of constituencies, each of which has an
interest in military spending
– Corporations, military officers, universities, and scientific institutes that
receive military research contracts
– Revolving door problem:
– PACS from the military industry
Public Opinion
• Range of views on foreign policy issues held by the
citizens of a state
• Has a greater influence on foreign policy in democracies
than in authoritarian governments
–
–
–
• In democracies, public opinion generally has less effect
on foreign policy than on domestic policy.
–
–
–
–
Figure 4.4
Legislatures
• Conduit through which interest groups and
public opinion can wield influence
– Presidential systems; separate elections
– Parliamentary systems; political parties are dominant