Fabian Wagner
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Comparing mitigation efforts between
Annex 1 Parties
Initial results
(excl. LULUCF)
Overview:
1. Marginal cost and total costs
2. Sensitivity to
• Interest rate
• Energy Prices
3. Co-benefits
4. Conclusions
Baseline GHG emissions projections
E m is s ions relative to 1990
160%
A us tralia
New Z ealand
140%
C anada
120%
Norw ay
United S tates of A meric a
100%
S w itz erland
J apan
80%
A nnex -I
EU27
60%
Rus s ian Federation
Ukraine
40%
1990
2005
Ye a r
2020
Analysis not completed yet for: Belarus, Croatia, Turkey, Cyprus, Malta
Annex I - 2020
marginal abatement cost curve
Eur/tCO2eq
+7%
+2%
-3%
-10%
-13%
Rel. to 2005
200
100
0
-100
-200
Annex I +3%
2020
Interest rate: 20%
-2%
-7%
-13%
-17%
Rel. to1990
Resulting total mitigation costs:
Annex 1 in 2020
0.40%
T otal c os t (s hare of G DP 2020)
0.35%
0.30%
0.25%
0.20%
0.15%
0.10%
0.05%
0.00%
-0.05%
5%
Interest rate: 20%
0%
-5%
-10%
E m issions re la tive to 1990
-15%
-20%
Marginal cost curves for individual Parties
Japan
United States of
America
EU27
Norway
Interest rate: 20%
Total cost curves for individual Parties
0.4%
T otal c os t
(s hare of G D P 2020)
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
60%
-0.1%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-0.2%
E mis s io n s re lativ e to 1990
A us tralia
-40%
-60%
Total cost curves for individual Parties
0.4%
T otal c os t
(s hare of G D P 2020)
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
60%
-0.1%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-0.2%
E mis s io n s re lativ e to 1990
A us tralia
Ukraine
-60%
Total cost curves for individual Parties
0.4%
T otal c os t
(s hare of G D P 2020)
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
60%
-0.1%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-0.2%
E mis s io n s re lativ e to 1990
A us tralia
New Zealand
C anada
Norway
United S tates of A meric a
S witz erland
J apan
E U27
R us s ian F ederation
Ukraine
Sensitivity analyses
• Alternative interest rates
• Alternative oil prices
• Baseline activity projections
Marginal costs for different interest rates
Annex 1, 2020, excl. LULUCF
Interest rate 20%
Interest rate 4%
200
130
-20% emissions
-20% emissions
Total costs for different interest rates
Annex 1, 2020, excl. LULUCF
T otal c os t (% of G DP 2020)
0.4%
20%
10%
0.2%
0.0%
10%
4%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-0.2%
E m issions re la tive to 1990
-20%
-25%
Total cost curves for individual Parties
0.4%
T otal c os t
(s hare of G D P 2020)
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
60%
-0.1%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-0.2%
E mis s io n s re lativ e to 1990
A us tralia
New Zealand
C anada
Norway
United S tates of A meric a
S witz erland
J apan
E U27
R us s ian F ederation
Ukraine
Annex I
2020
Interest rate: 20%
Emissions for individual Parties
at zero total cost
Interest rate
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
35%
25%
15%
5%
-3.5% -5%
-15%-15%
Australia
Canada
EU27
Japan
New Zealand
Norway
Russian Federation
Switzerland
Ukraine
United States of America
Annex-I
Emissions relative to 1990
-25%
Emissions for individual Parties
at zero total cost
Interest rate
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
35%
25%
15%
5%
-5%
-15%
Australia
Canada
EU27
Japan
New Zealand
Norway
Russian Federation
Switzerland
Ukraine
United States of America
Annex-I
Emissions relative to 1990
-25%
T otal c os t (% of G DP 2020)
Sensitivity to energy prices
0.4%
110$/barrel (W E O 2008)
83$/barrel
0.2%
0.0%
10%
Annex I -0.2%
2020
Interest rate: 20%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
E m issions re la tive to 1990
-20%
-25%
Co-control of air pollutant emissions
E mis s ions A ir P ollutants
relative to B as eline 2020
0%
S O2
NO X
P M2.5
-5%
-10%
-15%
5%
Annex I
2020
Interest rate: 20%
0%
-5%
-10%
G HG emis s ions (relative to 1990)
-15%
Conclusions
• Significant differences in mitigation potentials
between countries
• Interest rate is important for costing,
but does not change rank order
between Parties
• Considerable mitigation potential (-15%) from
negative cost measures for a 4% interest rate.
• In 2020, a 20% GHG reduction relative to 1990
for Annex 1 can be achieved at a marginal cost of
• 130 €/t CO2eq (at 4% interest rate)
• 200 €/t CO2eq (at 20% interest rate)