The SPHIS Project (Southern Population Health Information System) Stroke Admissions 1999-2001 A Data Model to inform Health Policy and Prevention in a Regional Area Fabrizio Carinci Director, Centre for Health Systems Research Paul Talman Director, Stroke Unit The SH 1999-2001 Stroke Cohort: Flow Chart Stroke Admissions 1st July 1998 –30th June 2001 - N=4,032 (1.1%) Yes No First Admission Stroke Patients N=3,356 Stroke readmissions N=676 (17%) COHORT HISTORY Select all admissions (any diagnosis) with same UR_NO and date of admission>date of discharge first stroke admission (N=8,287) X Deaths at First Admission: 316/3356 (9%) X Survivors Died at Readmission: 141/3040 (5%) X Admissions 1/06/1998 Survivors Readmitted: 1194/3040 (39%) Survivors Never Readmitted: 1705/3040 (56%) 30/06/2001 TIME Geographical Variability Stroke Patients x 1.000 (N=3324) 3-Year Overall LOS per Subject Dandenong Hospital 0 0-1 1.1-2.9 3-4.9 5.1-6.2 6.9-7.5 Sum LOS per Subject 80 60 40 20 0 Postcodes Practice Variability LOS>26 (75%) by Discharge Unit OVERALL 3356 NCST 1036 MDGA 716 MCED 281 NJUN 262 MDED 197 MSGA 121 NCBS 115 MSED 91 SCVS 91 NCUN 63 SDVS 62 MCGA 50 SJVS 37 MDGG 31 MSGP 29 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 FREQUENCY LOS>26 No Yes 90 100 SH 1999-2001 - Event Rates by Department of Discharge (Mortality, Readmissions and LOS observed anywhere) ALL PATIENTS Mortality LOS > 26 Overall Emergency Clayton Emergency Dandenong Medicine Clayton Medicine Dandenong Neurosciences (incl. NCST) NCST only Surgery Clayton Surgery Dandenong Other 2.9 3.0 31.0 18.4 15.1 9.6 15.8 16.4 6.3 1.9 2.0 16.9 13.1 6.1 10.5 8.4 7.6 1.9 STROKE PATIENTS LOS > 26 Overall 7.7 8.2 41.3 31.7 27.3 14.2 3.2 24.7 9.0 4.2 40.5 18.2 14.3 4.4 3.2 12.9 Emergency Clayton Emergency Dandenong Medicine Clayton Medicine Dandenong Neurosciences Surgery Clayton Surgery Dandenong Other Readmission 1ST Adm. Readm. 0.6 0.9 8.1 6.0 4.3 9.9 3.9 3.8 0.8 Mortality 1.3 1.1 8.8 7.1 1.8 0.6 4.5 4.8 1.1 1st Adm. Readm. 4.4 3.1 21.3 6.4 10.8 7.5 4.6 1.1 18.6 11.8 3.5 4.4 3.2 5.4 Overall 28.4 26.9 51.5 44.9 32.7 3.5 43.8 38.2 27.2 7 days 8.5 6.1 4.4 3.3 3.5 0.5 2.5 2.8 3.2 Readmission Overall 35.5 30.5 59.3 56.8 43.5 39.6 25.8 36.7 7 days 11.6 2.1 5.1 5.0 4.4 3.3 4.8 4.6 Modelling Outcomes= Subject-Level Adjustments + Practice-Level Adjustments + Subject Level Covariates + Practice-Level Risk Covariates + Population-Level Factors SH Stroke Patients 1999-2001 Outcome: Overall LOS26 Variable (HR;95% CI) Cox Regression Results (Events / N = 829 / 3,321) Age > 65 (1.443;1.198-1.738) Male (0.902;0.779-1.045) Respiratory (1.13;0.864-1.477) Cancer (1.116;0.741-1.683) History of Comorbidity Heart Disease (1.258;0.998-1.585) At First Circulatory (1.115;0.889-1.398) Stroke Diabetes (1.202;0.932-1.549) Admission Renal (1.476;1.024-2.128) TIA (0.422;0.323-0.55) Stroke Hemorragic (1.355;1.106-1.661) Diagnosis Cerebral Infarction (0.86;0.71-1.043) Discharge Clayton (1.5;1.188-1.893) Hospital Dandenong (1.448;1.134-1.85) Neurosciences (0.77;0.614-0.965) Emergency Clayton (0.436;0.268-0.711) Discharge Unit Emergency Dandenong (0.586;0.346-0.989) Separated/Divorced/Widow (1.238;1.06-1.446) Discharge Kingston (3.657;3.099-4.315) Destination Hampton (5.111;4.038-6.469) Procedures Carotid Endarterectomy (0.245;0.132-0.454) CT Scan (1.217;1.034-1.432) Postcodes Springvale (3171) (1.543;1.088-2.188) 0.01 Predictive at Subject level 0.25 0.5 1 Decreased Risk 2 5 Increased Risk HAZARD RATIO 10 SH Stroke Patients 1999-2001 Outcome: Overall Mortality Cox Regression Results (Events / N = 435 / 3,321) Variable (HR;95% CI) History of Comorbidity At First Stroke Admission Stroke Diagnosis Discharge Hospital Discharge Unit Procedures Age > 65 (2.59 ; 1.96 - 3.44) Male (0.96 ; 0.79 - 1.16) Respiratory (1.29 ; 0.90 - 1.86) Cancer (1.44 ; 0.82 - 2.55) Heart Disease (0.98 ; 0.69 - 1.39) Circulatory (1.18 ; 0.83 - 1.67) Diabetes (0.96 ; 0.66 - 1.39) Renal (1.56 ; 0.98 - 2.47) TIA (0.17 ; 0.11 - 0.25) Hemorragic (2.67 ; 2.11 - 3.37) Cerebral Infarction (0.94 ; 0.72 - 1.22) Clayton (2.39 ; 1.67 - 3.41) Dandenong (1.36 ; 0.96 - 1.93) Neurosciences (0.57 ; 0.41 - 0.78) Emergency Clayton (0.57 ; 0.34 - 0.94) Carer Unknown or NA (3.81 ; 1.42 -10.25) Planned Admission (0.38 ; 0.23 - 0.63) Hospital Transfer (0.24 ; 0.18 - 0.31) Carotid Endarterectomy (0.19 ; 0.07 - 0.49) Magnetic Resonance (0.49 ; 0.32 - 0.73) 0.01 0.25 0.5 1 Decreased Risk 2 5 Increased Risk HAZARD RATIO 10 SH Stroke Patients 1999-2001 Outcome: In-hospital Mortality at First Admission Logistic Regression Results (Events / N=316 / 3,356) Variable (OR;95% CI) History of Comorbidity At First Stroke Admission Stroke Diagnosis Discharge Hospital Discharge Unit Procedures Age > 65 (2.40 ; 1.70 - 3.38) Male (1.02 ; 0.79 - 1.31) Respiratory (1.19 ; 0.70 - 2.01) Cancer (1.23 ; 0.53 - 2.89) Heart Disease (1.06 ; 0.66 - 1.71) Circulatory (0.75 ; 0.46 - 1.23) Diabetes (1.07 ; 0.64 - 1.81) Renal (2.15 ; 1.11 - 4.17) TIA (0.04;0.015-0.11) Hemorragic (3.59 ;2.65 - 4.87) Cerebral Infarction (0.84 ; 0.59 - 1.17) Clayton (1.87 ; 1.25 - 2.78) Dandenong (1.54 ;1.01 -2.35) Emergency Clayton (0.36 ; 0.19 - 0.68) Medicine Clayton (1.95 ; 1.02 - 3.70) NE Asian / N American (1.57 ; 1.05 - 2.33) Planned Admission (0.28 ; 0.14 - 0.56) Carotid Endarterectomy (0.09 ; 0.01 - 0.68) CT Scan (0.68 ; 0.48 - 0.95) CT Scan Intrav. (0.38 ; 0.23 - 0.64) Magnetic Resonance (0.26 ; 0.15 - 0.46) 0.01 0.25 0.5 1 Decreased Risk Predictive at Subject level 2 5 Increased Risk ODDS RATIO 10 SH Stroke Patients 1999-2001 Outcome: Overall Readmissions Variable (HR;95% CI) History of Comorbidity At First Stroke Admission Stroke Diagnosis Discharge Hospital Discharge Unit Discharge Destination Procedures Postcode Cox Regression Results (Events / N =1,335 / 3,027) Age > 65 (1.26 ; 1.10 - 1.43) Male (0.96 ; 0.86 - 1.07) Respiratory (1.22 ; 0.98 - 1.51) Cancer (1.30 ; 0.94 - 1.79) Heart Disease (1.17 ; 0.97 - 1.42) Circulatory (1.07 ; 0.89 - 1.30) Diabetes (1.09 ; 0.88 - 1.34) Renal (1.27 ; 0.93 - 1.74) TIA (0.83 ; 0.71 - 0.98) Hemorragic (1.04 ; 0.86 - 1.26) Cerebral Infarction (0.95 ; 0.81 - 1.10) Clayton (1.88 ; 1.57 - 2.25) Dandenong (6.54 ; 2.06 -20.75) Neurosciences (0.80 ; 0.69 - 0.94) Emergency Dandenong (0.23 ; 0.07 - 0.75) Medicine Dandenong (0.31 ; 0.10 - 0.98) Surgery Dandenong (0.22 ; 0.06 - 0.76) NE Asian / N American (0.59 ; 0.46 - 0.76) Kingston (2.42 ; 2.09 - 2.80) Hampton (3.53 ; 2.91 - 4.29) Carotid Endarter. (0.65 ; 0.46 - 0.92) CT Scan (1.19 ; 1.05 - 1.35) Bentleigh East (3165) (1.37 ; 1.04 - 1.80) Oakleigh South (3167) (1.65 ; 1.19 - 2.28) Springvale (3171) (1.52 ; 1.16 - 1.99) 0.01 0.25 0.5 1 Decreased Risk Predictive at Subject level 2 5 Increased Risk HAZARD RATIO 10 SH Stroke Patients 1999-2001 Outcome: Readmissions within 7 days Variable (OR;95% CI) Logistic Regression Results (Events / N = 153 / 3,040) Age > 65 (0.92 ; 0.61 – 1.37) Male (1.04 ; 0.74 - 1.46) Respiratory (0.68 ; 0.31 - 1.46) History of Comorbidity At First Stroke Admission Cancer (1.57 ; 0.59 - 4.15) Heart Disease (1.62 ; 0.88 - 3.01) Circulatory (0.86 ; 0.45 - 1.64) Diabetes (0.66 ; 0.31 - 1.40) Renal (1.54 ; 0.58 - 4.10) TIA (1.10 ; 0.69 - 1.77) Stroke Diagnosis Hemorragic (0.85 ; 0.47 - 1.56) Cerebral Infarction (0.88 ; 0.55 -1.41) Clayton (1.28 ; 0.74 - 2.19) Discharge Hospital Dandenong (1.07 ; 0.60 - 1.90) Discharge Unit Discharge Destination Emergency Clayton (2.25 ; 1.31 - 3.86) Hampton (1.86 ; 1.04 - 3.34) Hospital Transfer (3.06 ; 2.04 - 4.58) Procedures Postcode CT Scan Intrav. (0.52 ; 0.27 - 0.98) Dandenong (3175) (2.37 ; 1.34 - 4.20) 0.01 0.25 Decreased Risk Predictive at Subject level 0.5 1 ODDS RATIO 2 Increased Risk 5 10 Outline Strategies for Stroke Care and Prevention Targets to reduce the impact of Overall Mortality: •Aged patients •Subjects with Hemorragic diagnoses •Assess presence of Carer at home Targets to reduce the impact of Mortality at First Admission: •Aged patients •Subjects with Hemorragic diagnoses •Patients born in North-East Asia or North America •Discharges from Medicine Clayton Targets to reduce the impact of Overall Readmissions: •Aged patients •Subjects with Hemorragic diagnoses •Residents in Springvale, Bentleigh East, Oakleigh Targets to reduce the impact of Readmissions within 7 days after first discharge: •Discharges from Emergency Clayton •Residents in Dandenong Targets to reduce the impact of Long Stay: •Patients Separated, divorced or widowed •Aged patients •Subjects with Hemorragic diagnoses •Residents in Springvale SH All Patients 1999-2001 Outcome:Overall LOS>26 (75% Stroke) Variable (HR;95% CI) Cox Regression Results (Events / N = 11,719 / 174,614) Age > 65 (1.65 ; 1.57 - 1.73) Male (1.09 ; 1.05 - 1.13) Respiratory (1.84 ; 1.76 - 1.91) History of Cancer (2.16 ; 2.06 - 2.27) Comorbidity Heart Disease (1.27 ; 1.21 - 1.33) At First Circulatory (1.63 ; 1.55 - 1.71) Stroke Cerebrovascular (1.58 ; 1.49 - 1.68) Diabetes (1.10 ; 1.05 - 1.16) Admission Renal (2.07 ; 1.97 - 2.18) Clayton (1.12 ; 1.06 - 1.17) Discharge Dandenong (0.53 ; 0.49 - 0.57) Hospital NE Asian / N American (0.65 ; 0.59 - 0.71) Separated/Divorced/Widow (1.44 ; 1.38 - 1.51) Carer Unknown or NA (1.16 ; 1.06 - 1.27) Stroke TIA (1.65 ; 1.50 - 1.81) Cerebral Infarction (0.73 ; 0.60 - 0.89) Diagnosis Planned Admission (1.52 ; 1.45 - 1.60) Discharge Kingston (2.39 ; 2.20 - 2.59) Hampton (6.30 ; 5.58 - 7.10) Destination Waiting List (0.29 ; 0.27 - 0.31) Hospital Transfer (2.24 ; 2.12 - 2.38) Neurosciences (0.58 ; 0.53 - 0.63) Emergency Clayton (0.36 ; 0.33 - 0.39) Emerg. Dandenong (0.80 ; 0.72 - 0.90) Discharge Medicine Clayton (1.09 ; 1.01 - 1.19) Unit Medicine Dandenong (1.59 ; 1.45 - 1.74) Surgery Clayton (0.78 ; 0.63 - 0.96) Surgery Dandenong (2.42 ; 1.90 - 3.09) Carotid Endarter. (0.33 ; 0.17 - 0.63) CT Scan (1.37 ; 1.27 - 1.47) Procedures CT Scan Intrav. (1.33 ; 1.17 - 1.45) Mount Waverley (3149) (0.81 ; 0.70 - 0.94) Glen Waverley (3150) (0.76 ; 0.67 - 0.86) Carnegie (3163) (0.79 ; 0.69 - 0.91) Postcodes Springvale (3171) (1.19 ; 1.07 - 1.31) Noble Park (3174) (1.21 ; 1.11 - 1.31) Dandenong (3175) (1.38 ; 1.29 - 1.49) 0.01 Predictive at Subject level 0.25 0.5 1 Decreased Risk 2 5 Increased Risk HAZARD RATIO 10 SH All Patients 1999-2001 Outcome: Overall In-hospital Mortality Cox Regression Results (Events / N = 4,314 / 174,614) Variable (HR;95% CI) Age > 65 (3.77 ; 3.45 - 4.12) Male (1.19 ; 1.12 - 1.27) Respiratory (2.09 ; 1.95 - 2.23) History of Cancer (3.52;3.28 - 3.77) Comorbidity Heart Disease (2.12 ; 1.96 - 2.28) Circulatory (1.23 ; 1.14 - 1.32) At First Cerebrovascular (1.72 ; 1.58 - 1.88) Stroke Diabetes (0.85 ; 0.79 - 0.91) Admission Renal (2.40 ; 2.23 - 2.58) Clayton (1.47 ; 1.35 - 1.61) Discharge Dandenong (0.99 ; 0.87 - 1.13) Hospital NE Asian / N American (1.46 ; 1.31 - 1.63) Married (1.19 ; 1.09 - 1.31) Separated, Widowed, Divorced (1.43 ; 1.29 - 1.58) Carer Unknown or NA (2.83 ; 2.28 - 3.52) Stroke TIA (0.72 ; 0.58 - 0.89) Hemorragic (3.94 ; 3.15 - 4.93) Diagnosis Planned Admission (1.13 ; 1.03 - 1.23) Discharge Destination Kingston (0.50 ; 0.26 - 0.93) Waiting List (0.31 ; 0.27 - 0.36) Hospital Transfer (0.67 ; 0.61 - 0.74) Emergency Clayton (0.68 ; 0.60 - 0.77) Discharge Emergency Dandenong (1.24 ; 1.06 - 1.45) Unit Medicine Clayton (1.17 ; 1.04 - 1.33) Medicine Dandenong (1.60 ; 1.40 - 1.83) Surgery Clayton (1.64 ; 1.21 - 2.21) Surgery Dandenong (2.59 ; 1.84 - 3.65) Carotid Endarter. (0.19 ; 0.07 - 0.51) CT Scan (1.647;1.482-1.83) Procedures CT Scan Intrav. (1.34 ; 1.14 - 1.59) Magnetic Resonance (0.66 ; 0.50 - 0.88) Springvale (3171) (1.21 ; 1.04 - 1.41) Noble Park (3174) (1.23 ; 1.09 - 1.40) Postcodes Dandenong (3175) (1.18 ; 1.06 - 1.32) 0.01 Predictive at Subject level 0.25 0.5 1 Decreased Risk 2 5 Increased Risk HAZARD RATIO 10 SH All Patients 1999-2001 Outcome: In-hospital Mortality at First Admission Logistic Regression Results (Events / N = 1,938 / 176,148) Variable (OR;95% CI) History of Comorbidity At First Stroke Admission Discharge Hospital Stroke Diagnosis Discharge Unit Procedures Age > 65 (5.78 ; 5.07 - 6.60) Male (1.29 ; 1.16 - 1.42) Respiratory (1.44 ; 1.30 - 1.60) Cancer (2.03 ; 1.78 - 2.32) Heart Disease (2.22 ; 1.98 - 2.48) Circulatory (0.88 ; 0.79 - 0.98) Cerebrovascular (1.30 ; 1.11 - 1.51) Diabetes (0.67 ; 0.59 - 0.76) Renal (1.72 ; 1.51 - 1.96) Clayton (1.76 ; 1.53 - 2.03) Dandenong (0.91 ; 0.74 - 1.13) NE Asian / N American (2.23 ; 1.94 - 2.57) Separated/Divorced/Widow (1.17 ; 1.05 - 1.31) TIA (0.48 ; 0.35 - 0.68) Hemorragic (5.70 ; 4.15 - 7.82) Waiting List (0.11 ; 0.08 - 0.16) Neurosciences (1.63 ; 1.32 - 2.02) Emergency Clayton (0.31 ; 0.25 - 0.39) Emergency Dandenong (1.28 ; 1.00 - 1.65) Medicine Clayton (1.35 ; 1.12 - 1.63) Medicine Dandenong (2.53 ; 2.02 - 3.16) Surgery Clayton (2.00 ; 1.26 - 3.17) Surgery Dadenong (4.30 ; 2.49 - 7.43) CT Scan (2.33 ; 2.01 - 2.71) CT Scan Intrav. (1.48 ; 1.13 - 1.92) Magnetic Resonance (0.47 ; 0.31 - 0.72) 0.01 Predictive at Subject level 0.25 0.5 1 Decreased Risk 2 5 Increased Risk ODDS RATIO 10 SH All Patients 1999-2001 Outcome:Overall Readmissions Cox Regression Results (Events / N = 49,461 / 172,755) Variable (HR;95% CI) History of Comorbidity At First Stroke Admission Discharge Hospital Stroke Diagnosis Discharge Destination Discharge Unit Procedures Postcodes Age > 65 (0.94 ; 0.92 - 0.97) Male (0.92 ; 0.91 - 0.94) Respiratory (1.56 ; 1.52 - 1.59) Cancer (1.97 ; 1.91 - 2.02) Heart Disease (1.29 ; 1.26 - 1.32) Circulatory (1.27 ; 1.24 - 1.30) Stroke (1.24 ; 1.19 - 1.30) Diabetes (1.13 ; 1.10 - 1.16) Renal (1.31 ; 1.27 - 1.36) Clayton (1.36 ; 1.32 - 1.39) Dandenong (1.15 ; 1.12 - 1.18) NE Asian / N American (0.66 ; 0.63 - 0.69) Married (1.35 ; 1.32 - 1.38) Separated/Divorced/Widow (1.37 ; 1.33 - 1.41) Carer Unknown or NA (1.04 ; 1.01 - 1.08) TIA (1.31 ; 1.24 - 1.39) Cerebral Infarction (0.80 ; 0.69 - 0.93) Planned Admission (1.13 ; 1.10 - 1.16) Kingston (1.76 ; 1.65 - 1.88) Hampton (3.03 ; 2.76 - 3.32) Waiting List (0.79 ; 0.76 - 0.81) Hospital Transfer (1.64 ; 1.59 - 1.70) Neurosciences (0.71 ; 0.67 - 0.75) Emergency Clayton (0.92 ; 0.89 - 0.95) Medicine Clayton (0.90 ; 0.85 - 0.96) Carotid Endarterectomy (0.53 ; 0.38 - 0.75) Oakleigh (3166) (1.11 ; 1.05 - 1.17) Clayton (3168) (1.10 ; 1.05 - 1.16) Springvale (3171) (1.18 ; 1.13 - 1.25) Noble Park (3174) (1.16 ; 1.11 - 1.21) Dandenong (3175) (1.21 ; 1.16 - 1.25) Mordialloc (3195) (1.10 ; 1.04 - 1.16) Bentleigh (3204) (1.10 ; 1.03 - 1.17) 0.01 0.25 0.5 1 Decreased Risk Predictive at Subject level 2 5 Increased Risk HAZARD RATIO 10 SH All Patients 1999-2001 Outcome: Readmission within 7 days Logistic Regression Results (Events / N = 7,076 / 174,210) Variable (OR;95% CI) Age > 65 (0.54 ; 0.50 - 0.58) Male (0.94 ; 0.89 - 0.99) Respiratory (1.26 ; 1.18 - 1.34) History of Cancer (1.97 ; 1.81 - 2.15) Comorbidity Heart Disease (0.93 ; 0.87-1.01) At First Circulatory (1.23 ; 1.14 - 1.32) Stroke Cerebrovascular (1.06 ; 0.93 - 1.22) Admission Diabetes (1.06 ; 0.98 - 1.16) Renal (1.81 ; 1.62 - 2.02) Clayton (0.94 ; 0.87 - 1.01) Discharge Dandenong (0.96 ; 0.88 - 1.05) Hospital NE Asian / N American (0.57 ; 0.51 - 0.64) Married (1.32 ; 1.25 - 1.40) Separated/Divorced/Widow (1.20 ; 1.10 - 1.31) Carer Unknown or NA (1.32 ; 1.18 - 1.47) Planned (1.20 ; 1.10 - 1.31) Kingston (0.55 ; 0.44 - 0.67) Discharge Destination Waiting List (0.46 ; 0.41 - 0.51) Hospital Transfer (6.76 ; 6.35 - 7.19) Neurosciences (0.64 ; 0.54 - 0.76) Emergency Clayton (1.99 ; 1.85 - 2.16) Discharge Emergency Dandenong (1.55 ; 1.41 - 1.71) Unit Medicine Dandenong (0.69 ; 0.58 - 0.82) Procedures CT Scan (0.84 ; 0.73 - 0.96) Mount Waverley (3149) (0.79 ; 0.66 - 0.96) Springvale (3171) (1.16 ; 1.01 - 1.34) Postcodes Noble Park (3174) (1.19 ; 1.06 - 1.33) Dandenong (3175) (1.17 ; 1.05 - 1.29) 0.01 Predictive at Subject level 0.25 0.5 1 Decreased Risk 2 5 Increased Risk ODDS RATIO 10
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