Evaluating
Trade Policy
DO YOU AGREE WITH YOUR CANDIDATE’S POSITION?
Traditional trade deals
cut tariffs & quotas

Benefits of promoting free trade are
well-accepted tenets of mainstream
economics

But there are losers from free trade

Benefits depend on redistributing gains
to share between winners and losers

Theoretically everyone is better off
Income growth 1988-2008
by income percentile
across GLOBAL income distribution
Source: Branko Milanovic 2013, Global Policy, Volume 4
Issue 2. May 2013.
Who benefits from TPP?
Annual percent rise in income by 2030
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Source: Petri & Brunner 2016, “The Economic Effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership: New Estimates,” Peterson Institute
for International Economics Working Paper #16-2, January 2016.
Traditional trade deals
cut tariffs & quotas

Benefits of promoting free trade are
well-accepted tenets of mainstream
economics

But there are losers from free trade


Benefits depend on redistributing gains
to share between winners and losers

Theoretically everyone is better off
Income growth 1988-2008
by income percentile
across GLOBAL income distribution
But in reality that does not happen
Source: Branko Milanovic 2013, Global Policy, Volume 4
Issue 2. May 2013.
Support for the
Trans-Pacific Partnership
For
Unknown/unclear
Against
Bush
XX
Christie
XX
Carson
X
Kasich
X
Rubio
XX
Clinton
X
X
Cruz
X
X
Fiorina
X
X
X
Sanders
XXX
Trump
XXX
Oh by the way, it’s much more
complicated than you thought…

Tariff cuts are only 12% of the benefits of the TPP

Non-tariff barriers (68%)

Also other items (20%) that are much more difficult to measure


Investor-State Dispute Settlement

Intellectual Property Protection

Labor and Environmental Standards
Geopolitical concerns (??)