INSE 6421: Systems Integration and Testing Survey Paper Title: Solar Energy Site Selection using GIS-based with MultiCriteria Decision Making Prepared by: Hassan Al Garni ID# 9737634 To Professor: Dr. Rachida Dssouli April 11th, 2014 Contents Abstract ........................................................................................................................................... 2 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 3 2. Overview of Multi-Criteria Decision making methods ............................................................ 5 2.1 Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) ......................................................................... 7 2.2 The Elimination and Choice Translating Reality (ELECTRE) ............................................. 7 2.3 Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) ... 8 2.4 Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) ................................................................................. 9 2.5 Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution ............................... 12 3. Application of MCDM in Renewable Energy ......................................................................... 13 4. Geographical Information Systems (GIS)............................................................................... 15 4.1 GIS in Renewable Energy Applications .......................................................................... 16 4.2 Integrating GIS and MCDM............................................................................................ 18 5. Solar Energy site selection using GIS-based with MCDM:..................................................... 19 6. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 21 7. References ............................................................................................................................. 23 Abstract Renewable energy resources present a sustainable, environment friendly and cost effective energy in long term. In last decade, solar energy considered the fastest growing renewable energy resource. One of the barriers to the solar energy development is its variability which can be different geographically from one place to another. The Integration of GIS and MCDM offers an effective decision support system for solar farms site selection by providing results that can be meaningfully displayed using GIS. This review paper particularly examines the recent published papers that applied GIS-MCDM to achieve the optimal placement of solar energy systems with comparison analysis. 1. Introduction Energy is the essential key element for sustainable development and prosperity of a society in this era [1]. According to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Energy sources are divided into two main groups: Nonrenewable resources that we are using up and cannot recreate and Renewable that can be easily replenished .Renewable energy sources include: Solar energy, which can be turned into electricity and heat, Wind energy, geothermal energy from the Earth heat, Biomass from plants, and Hydropower from hydroturbines at a dam [2]. Those resources are free sources, sustainable, environment friendly and more economical in long term. The International Energy Agency (IEA) in its World Energy Outlook 2013 indicates that global energy demand increases by one-third from 2011 to 2035. Demand grows for all forms of energy while the contribution of fossil fuels in the world’s energy mix drops from 82% to 76% in 2035. Renewable and nuclear energy resources provide around 40% of the growth in primary energy demand. Renewable energy resources almost supply half of the net increase in electricity generation [3]. Solar energy could provide up to one-third of the world’s final energy demand after 2060 according to IEA analysis as shown in figure 1.1. Solar energy has two main kinds: Solar photovoltaic (PV) that converts solar energy into electrical power by a Photovoltaic cell made of a semiconductor material and Concentrating solar power (CSP) that has devices to collect the sun’s rays to heat a receiver to high temperatures and then transformed first into mechanical energy (by turbines or other engines) and then into electricity. Due to its availability, environmental advantages, government incentives and advanced technology, the Solar PV was the fastest growing renewable power technology worldwide over the period 2000-2011. [4] Figure 1.1 Total final energy by sources, 2060 [4] One of the barriers to the solar energy development is its limitations and variability which can be different geographically from one place to another. Using Multiple Criteria decision making (MCDM) can help to facilitate the decision making related to site selection for photovoltaic solar energy systems. Since the Solar energy is a natural resource with inconsistent or limited availability, the strategic location selection can play a role to maximize the energy collected and the output power generated [5]. MCDM offers useful assistant to decision maker in mapping out the problem by providing a flexible tools to handle and bring together a wide range of variables evaluated in different ways [6]. The Geographical Information system (GIS) is a powerful tool for consulting, analyzing and editing data, map and spatial information. In recent years, GIS-based MCDM has become increasingly popular as a tool for different site selection studies specially for the energy planning. The integration of GIS and MCDM results in a useful tool to solve the site selection problems for solar energy systems [7]. The main objectives of this survey is to support decision makers in the field of solar energy farms developments and planning where there are multiple tools of GIS-based integrated with MCDM can solve the problems. Addressing such problems could correspond to select the “best” alternative from potential alternatives or classifying alternatives into different categories sets. 2. Overview of Multi-Criteria Decision making methods Multi-criteria decision making is a well-known area of decision making which considered as a one branch of operation research models. It deals with solving decision problems under numbers of decision criteria. A decision maker is able to choose among quantifiable or non-quantifiable and multiple criteria. The problem solution is extremely dependent on the choice of the decision maker and must be a compromise [10]. There are two major classes: Multi-attribute decision making (MADM) which is the evaluation of a set of alternatives against a set of criteria and ultimate choices are made among possible alternatives. On the other hand, Multi-objectives decision making (MODM) described by DM’s multiple objectives which could be a statement about the desired state of the system. MODM issues work with the objectives that require developing specific relationships between attributes of the alternatives [8, 31]. In each of the above classes there are several methods. Priority based, outranking, distance based and mixed methods that can be deployed to solve problems. Also, it can be classified into deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy methods. Many recent researches have integrated more than one method to reach optimal solution. [9]. MADM is one of the most popular MCDM methods Applied to solve problems from different prospective [11]. With respect to each attribute, usually the best alternative is selected by making comparisons between alternatives as shown in multi-criteria decision process in figure 2.1[10]: Formulation of Options Criteria Selection Selection of Decision Process Performance Evaluation Decide Decision Parameters Application of the method Evaluation of Result Decison Figure 2.1. Multi-criteria decision process [10]. MCDM has been applied in many areas such as integrated manufacturing system, evaluations of technology investment, water and agriculture management and energy planning. [10]. The most commonly MADM methods used in energy planning are: Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE), The elimination and choice translation reality (ELECTRE), Multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) [10,11]. 2.1 Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) Multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) is one of the most common used MCDM methods to solve problem associated with different important issues. The simplest model is the additive utility function as the follows: K U(Ai ) = ∑ wk uk (xik ) k=1 Where U(Ai ) represents the utility of the alternative i, wk represents the weight of the attribute/criteria k, and uk (xik ) is the utility of attribute/criterion k of alternative i given that the value of attribute/criterion j of alternative i is xik . The utility of each attribute/criteria is not necessary to be linear. There are three basic models represented the decision maker (DM) risk attitudes, linear (risk-neutral), concave (risk-averse) and convex shape (risk-seeker). After the utility evaluation of each criterion, the integrated utility of each alternative is assessed by weighted sum of the all attributes values of alternatives. The highest integrated utility value considered the best alternative which should be selected by Decision maker [11]. 2.2 The Elimination and Choice Translating Reality (ELECTRE) The elimination and choice translating reality (ELECTRE) tool is able to handle discrete criteria of both quantitative and qualitative by providing order of all the alternatives. The concern with this method is that to be so formulated that is chooses alternatives that are preferred over most of the criteria and not less than acceptable level of any other criteria. The concordance, discordance, indices and threshold values are applied in this technique and a graph of relationship is developed which can be used to obtain the ranking of the alternatives. The index which in the range of 0 and 1, denotes the degree of credibility of each outranking relation and test the performance of each alternative [10]. The equation below represents the index of global concordance 𝐶𝑖𝑘 which denotes the amount of evidence to support the concordance among all criteria. 𝑚 𝑚 𝐶𝑖𝑘 = ∑ 𝑊𝑗 𝑐𝑗 (𝐴𝑖 𝐴𝑘)/ ∑ 𝑊𝑗 𝑗=1 𝑗=1 Assuming that 𝐴𝑖 outranks Ak and 𝑊𝑗 is the weight of jth criteria. The limitation of this method is that sometimes unable to obtain the preferred alternative. ELECTRE is more suitable with large number of alternatives and few criteria due to its capability to eliminate less preferable ones [10, 12]. 2.3 Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) PROMETHEE and ELECTRE are the main families of methods in the French school which depends on the outranking of one alternative over another. By saying a outranks an alternative b , we indicate that a should at least as good as b considering all criteria. [12]. Using this method in order to make up a preference function for each criterion a pair-wise comparison is performed for all alternatives. A preference index for a over b is developed based on the preference function [12]. PROMETHEE developed by Brans et al. in 1986 [13] with six generalized criteria functions for preference namely, usual criterion, quasi criterion, criterion with linear preference, level criterion, criterion with linear preference and indifference area and Gaussian criterion [10, 13]. 𝑃𝑗 (𝑎, 𝑏) is a preference function used in this method which denotes the difference 𝑑𝑗 between alternatives a and b for any criteria j which also can be expressed as dj= f(a, j) − f (b, j) where f(a, j) and f (b, j) are the values of alternatives a and b respectively for criteria j. Depends on the type of the criteria function, the indifference and preference thresholds q, and p, could be useful. The weighted average of the preference function Pj (a, b) for all criteria is called Multi-criteria preference index π = (a, b) and defined as π = (a, b) = ∑Jj=1 wj Pj(a, b)/ ∑Jj=1 wj φ+ (a) = ∑ π = (a, b) A φ− (a) = ∑ π = (b, a) A φ(a) = φ+ (a) − φ− (a) Considering wj is the weight allocated to the criterion j, 𝜑 + is the outranking index of a in the alternative set A, 𝜑 − is the outranked index of a in the alternative set A. [10,13].The maximum net ranking 𝜑 considered more preferred i.e. 𝑎 outranks 𝑏 𝑖𝑓𝑓 𝜑(𝑎) > 𝜑(𝑏) 2.4 Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) introduced by Thomas L. Saaty in 1980 [14]. It is an effective tool to solve complex decisions by providing DM with obvious ranking for the best alternative selection. AHP shows it’s powerful for solving complicated problems that may have correlation and interactions among multiple objectives. It has three main levels including top level which is the goal, middle one which has the criteria and subcriteria, and the bottom level in the hierarchy which defined the alternatives. In each hierarchy level a pair-wise comparison between the elements considered as input from experts. The AHP is an eigenvalues technique that can provides a numerical fundamental scale ranges from 1 to 9 to calibrate the qualitative and quantitative performances of priorities. Table 2.1 illustrates the verbal terms of the Saaty's fundamental scale [14, 15]. Scale of aij Interpretation 1 i and j are equally important 3 i is slightly more important than j 5 i is more important than j 7 i is strongly more important than j 9 i is absolutely more important than j Table2.1 Table of Saaty's fundamental scale. The process of applying AHP method for decision making approach is demonstrated in figure 2.2. Initially the DM should state the goal of the process and develop the main three levels of hierarchy. After assessing all elements using the verbal scale, AHP computes and aggregates the eigenvectors to obtain the composite final vector of weight coefficients for all alternatives. The entries of final weight coefficients vector indicate the importance and preference of each alternative towards the goal at the top of the hierarchy [10, 14, 15]. Define the Problem Develop the Hierarchy for Goal,criteria and Alternatives Expert input to weigh against each criteria using scale 1-9 Calculate Eigenvalues Consistency index(CI) Consistency ratio (CR) for criteria/alternative Yes Matrix has CR>0.1 No Select Alternative with highest weight Figure 2.2 AHP Process Regarding the weight vector, the pair-wise comparison of matrix A is developed by expert’s inputs at a given level. 𝑎11 𝑎 𝐴 = [ 21 𝑎𝑛1 𝑎12 𝑎21 𝑎𝑛2 . . . 𝑎1𝑛 𝑎2𝑛 ] 𝑎𝑛𝑛 A multiplication with weight coefficient of the element at the higher level should be made after getting the weight vector. This process is repeatable upward for each level until reach the top level of the hierarchy. The alternative with the highest weight coefficient considered as the best alternative. AHP has many advantages that make it an effective tool for DM such as ability to check the inconsistency. Consistency index (CI) can assist DM and assure that judgment was consistent and selection of the best alternative will be reliable. The value of CI should be less than 0.1 otherwise re-evaluation of pair-wise comparison is required. [10, 14, 15]. AHP has powerful performance in dealing with interdependent criteria involving both quantitative and qualitative [16]. More details on how to calculate the weight vector and consistency index are in references [14, 15]. AHP has widely criticized for some drawbacks such as pair-wise should be completed by the experts only and its tedious process especially if huge numbers of criteria or alternatives are involved. Experts may not make their judgments conscientiously due to feel tired and lose patience during this process and therefore. To overcome such drawback, the DM can consider only reasonable and manageable amounts of criteria in the process. [16]. While AHP mathematical process is too long and complex, normally is performed by specially designed computer programs. [12] In some studies, a combination of different MCDM applied to use the strengths of both methods. The AHP technique has been mostly popular for combination with other methods [12]. 2.5 Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) is a method of MCDM which based on the concept that the chosen alternative should have the shortest geometric distance from the positive ideal solution (PIS) and the longest geometric distance from the negative ideal solution (NIS). The final ranking is obtained by means of the closeness index. The figure 2.3 illustrates the procedure of TOPSIS [22]. Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5 Step 6 Step 7 •Establish a performance matrix •Normalize the decision matrix •Calculate the weighted normalized decision matrix •Determine the +ve Ideal and -ve ideal solution •Calculate the separation measures •Calculate the relative closeness to the ideal solution •Rank the Preferanace order Figure 2.3 TOPSIS Steps [22] 3. Application of MCDM in Renewable Energy Multi-criteria decision making analysis has been utilized to solve many real world problems including energy sector issues. Energy system is a complex analysis that can be determined as a multi-dimensional space with different boundaries and dynamic. Applying MCDM provides a reliable insight to evaluate renewable energy resources and technologies in face of different and conflict alternatives and criteria. [17]. In this section examples of literature that covered application of MCDM in renewable energy. A literature presented by Pohekar et al in review of MCDM in sustainable energy planning [10]. More than 90 papers discussed and analyzed in terms of applicability and methodologies used up to 1990 and beyond 1990. Study showed that MCDM applications are highly popular for renewable energy planning (34%) as shown in figure 2.4. Number of Refernces in [10] 7% Renewable Energy Planning 12% 34% Electric utility planning Energy Resource Allocation 13% Building Energy Management Project Planning 15% Others 19% Figure 2.4 Categories of references [10] Pohekar has also classified MCDM methods that have been applied in different areas of energy planning and conclude that AHP was the most popular technique as a multiple attribute decision making followed by outranking techniques PROMETHEE and ELECTRE as shown in figure 2.5 [10]. Number of Refrences in [10] 25 20 22 15 14 10 13 10 5 7 4 0 Multi-Objective MAUT AHP PROMETHEE ELECTRE Others Number of Refrences in [10] Figure 2.5 Tools of references [10] Insights regarding the suitability of multi-criteria techniques in the context of renewable energy planning provided by Polatidis et al. They demonstrate clearly that there is not one method that can work superiorly to all identified attributes. Their main conclusion was important criteria must be identified first, and then suitable methods should be selected. Overall, ELECTRE III and PROMETHEE II seem to perform better in the context of renewable energy problems at hand [18]. Loken claimed that energy planning is a field that is quite suitable for the use of MCDA. He demonstrated many MCDM Methods with its application in energy planning. There was no preference given to any method. He determined that choice of method generally depends on the preference of the DM with the importance to consider the suitability, validity, and user-friendliness of the methods [12]. Wang et al analyzed different stages of multi-criteria decision-making for sustainable energy, including criteria selection, criteria weighting, evaluation, and final aggregation. He observed MCDA methods have been widely employed to sustainable energy decisionmaking considering multi-criteria and that AHP is the most popular comprehensive tool in the rank-order weighting method. [19] 4. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) According to international supplier of Geographic Information System, A geographic information system (GIS) can be defined as a hardware, software, and data for consulting, manipulating, analyzing, and displaying geographically information. GIS provide ability to understand, interpret, and visualize data in many ways that disclose relationships, patterns, and trends in the different forms. There are many benefits of GIS to organizations of all sizes and in almost every industry including cost savings, managing geographically, better decision making, enhanced communication, improved recordkeeping and increased efficiency. [20, 21]. GIS handles the geographical data so the user can select the necessary data for a particular project for study and analysis. The user allowed adding layers of information to a basemap of real world locations. Various types of data sets are tied together geographically to provide spatial context, such as power lines, road networks, urban mapping, land cover, and demographic data can contain a multitude of information about a specific feature (figure ) [22]. Figure 2.6 GIS layers model. [23] 4.1 GIS in Renewable Energy Applications GIS and Renewable energy has been common combination to study renewable energy problems and analyze data. Based on Scopus (www.scopus.com) data figures 2.7 and 2.8 demonstrate the trend of documents published integrating the two areas. More details are given in [32]. Figure 2.7 GIS and Renewable energy publications 1990-2014 (March). Scopus analyze results values - Country 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Figure 2.8 GIS and Renewable energy publications 1990-2014 (March) based on Country. The GIS can be used to eliminate unsuitable or restricted areas (undeveloped land, community sites, infrastructure, etc.) which can reduce the study areas. Constraints or restrictive criteria will make it possible to reduce the area of study by discarding those areas that prevent the implementation of renewable energy plants. The restrictions are entered into GIS using layers defined from the current legislation of the area. [22, 36]. 4.2 Integrating GIS and MCDM GIS has demonstrated its major potential for utilizing geographical information to develop a decision support system. The integration of GIS with MCDM develops a better insight for the decision makers to improve their selection. GIS-based MCDM tool is applied in spatial analysis to obtain the most favorable sites for different approaches such as landfill site selection [26, 27], renewable energy sites [34] and urban planning and development [25, 35]. Jankowski clarify the role of GIS and multicriteria decision-making methods in supporting spatial decision-making, and present a framework for integrating GIS with MCDM [24]. Greene et al provided an overview of the methods of MCDA and its spatial extension using GIS. He suggested improving integration of MCDA with GIS software for increasing accessibility. [28]. Imtiaz et al. highlight extensively the use of GIS-based analytic hierarchy process (AHP) as a multicriteria decision analysis instrument. They found the integration of the GIS with the AHP is a useful method in considering the land suitability analysis for development and feature to facilitate efficiency from economic point of view. [25]. Rumbayan and Nagaska employed AHP and GIS to rank the prioritization of renewable energy (Solar, wind and Geothermal|) potential sites in Indonesia. [34]. Tools and applications in GIS-based MCDA continue to expand in research output to offers an effective decision support system for DM. [28]. 5. Solar Energy site selection using GIS-based with MCDM: The integration of GIS with MCDM offers a reliable decision support system for DM. In Egypt, Effat used GIS and remote sensing tools and applied AHP to calculate the criteria weight to Spatial Multicriteria Evaluation (SMCE) model. A weighted overlay was used to produce a suitability index map for solar energy power. The methodology proves to be useful for DM to develop solar energy farms [33]. Uyan presented an integration of GIS and AHP in his study for determining suitable site selection for solar farm in Konya, Turkey. He used land suitability index to group the suitable areas into four categories (low suitable, moderate, suitable, and best suitable) [7]. Obviously AHP method is the most popular tool used with GIS however it is often criticized for its inability to adequately handle the inherent uncertainty and imprecision associated with the mapping of the DM’s perception to exact numbers. The Fuzzy AHP method is derived from the AHP with advanced analytical process. Fuzzy AHP presents a powerful decisions technique which has ability for adequate modeling of the uncertainty in human behavior. Kengpol et al has proposed guideline to identify potential solar power plant site selection. They implemented Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy AHP) technique to consolidate the environment and social aspects in electrical demand. GIS used first to exclude unsuitable sites such as mountains and screen the possible sites under favorable conditions. This is an advantages since DM able to optimize functional criteria and able to provide the significant weight priority as required. In order to deal with uncertainty of decision making problem in AHP, fuzzy AHP is preferred in such site selection. [32]. Charabi and Gastli conducted assessment study of the land suitability for large PV farms implementation in Oman. They proposed to use the AHP-OWA using Fuzzy quantifiers in GIS. Fuzzy Logic Ordered Weight Averaging (FLOWA) module is an integrated tool within ESRI ARrcMap. They claim such models will incorporates uncertainty of expert opinions on the criteria and their weights and delivers a mechanism for aiding the decisionmaking through the multi-criteria combination technique [29]. Aydin et al found determined feasible locations in terms of environmental and economic feasibility through a fuzzy decision-making procedure that uses ordered weighted averaging algorithm for aggregating multiple objectives. Then, preferable sites are recognized separately for wind and solar energy systems by using GIS and at the end, the related maps are overlaid to obtain the most feasible locations for hybrid wind solar-PV systems. They claim that such approach can overcome the intermittent of the renewable energy resources. They used mathematical tools of Fuzzy Set Theory and a MCDM approach to evaluate environmental factors together with economic feasibility objectives of wind and solar energies. [30] To attain more information about how much alternative is suitable TOPSIS can be applied. In Spain, Sanchez et al. combine GIS and MCDM (AHP and TOPSIS) to attain the evaluation of the optimal sites of PV-solar power plant in the area of Cartagena, Spain. TOPSIS has additional value through alternatives assessment according to their degree of suitability. Also, TOPSIS is not required input from experts for each alternative and it can be employed directly within GIS database. [22] Instead of finding the best suitable site to implement solar farms, the potential locations can be classified into different categories. Recently Sanchez et al. classified the potential sites according to multiple evaluation aspects by developing a multicriteria model and applying the ELECTRE-TRI method using decision support system software [36]. The table below shows the selected contributions to GIS-based for solar site selections with MCDM techniques. It is clear that using AHP is very popular in GIS-based for solar site selection. Reference Effat [33] Charabi [29] Aydin [30] Kengpol [32] Uyan [7] Sanchez [22] Sanchez [36] Fuzzy AHP ELECTRE TOPSIS Table 5.1 Recent Publication on GIS combined with MCDM on solar site selection 6. Conclusion Solar energy system is one of the current renewable energy resources that can play a large role in the power industries. Overcoming the limitation and barriers of such technology will enhance the efficiency of the renewable energy sector, will help to reduce the green gas emissions as well as the economical benefits on long term. From energy point of view, selecting the optimal sites for solar farms can increase the power output and avoid many acceptance issues and unnecessary costs. Undoubtedly, GIS shows its usefulness as a powerful tool to eliminate unsuitable sites from the study and use the weight of criteria to provide the best suitable site or the most preferable category for such projects. Decision maker plays a major rule in selecting the criteria to be evaluated and MCDM technique to be utilized considering different objectives and constraints. Choosing the multicriteria decision tool such as AHP, Fuzzy AHP, ELECTRE and TOPSIS, depends on the DM objectives. AHP which is the most popular tool due to its simplicity and consistency control has no consideration of human uncertainty while fuzzy AHP has overcome this issue. ELECTRE-TRI has the ability to classify the feasible locations into a set of categories without pointing the best alternative while TOPSIS has strength of selecting alternative that close as possible to the ideal solution and furthermost from the negative-ideal solution with extremely limited input from DM. Both ELECTRE and TOPSIS are preferable for huge number of alternatives and criteria although they have no control over the consistency. This review presents the integration of GIS and MCDM which offers an effective decision support system for solar farms site selection by providing results that can be meaningfully displayed using GIS. The most common MCDM tools in energy planning (AHP, FAHP, TOPSIS, and ELECTRE) have been evaluated for solar site selection. 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