Highway Network/Traffic Analysis
Zones (TAZs)
Development of Synthetic Trip
Tables
Validation Procedures & Results
Model Application (2003 & 2030)
Review
General Model Design
Model Characteristics
Address Major Corridor Movements
Relatively Easy to Maintain and Update
Uses Existing Data Resources
Uses Existing Software for Application
Links to Existing GIS Databases/Software
Sensitive to Shifts in Socioeconomic/Land
Use Patterns
• Assess Impacts of Shifts in Travel Modes
• Assess Freight Movements
•
•
•
•
•
•
Potential Methodologies
• Traditional Four Step TDM Procedures
 Trip Generation
 Trip Distribution
 Mode Choice
 Traffic Assignment
• Trip Table Expansion (FRATAR)
 Preparation of Base Trip Table(s)
 Development of Expansion Factors
Steps In Model Development
• Development of Highway Network & TAZs
 Selection of Detail for Highway Network
 Definition of TAZs
 TAZ/Network Compatibility
• Synthetic Matrix Estimation (SME)
 Development of Seed Matrices
 Matrix Estimation
• Traffic Assignment
Network/TAZ Definition
• Incorporate All Roadways in TRIMS
• 1,283 Miles of Interstate/Freeways
• 4,300 Miles of Principal Arterials
• 8,271 Miles of Other
• Subset of TRIMS
 Interstate and Freeways
 Principal Arterials
TRIMS/Model Comparison
NATIONAL FUNCTIONAL
CLASSIFICATION
RURAL INTERSTATE
RURAL OTHER PRINCIPAL ARTERIAL
RURAL MINOR ARTERIAL
RURAL MAJOR COLLECTOR
RURAL MINOR COLLECTOR
RURAL LOCAL
URBAN INTERSTATE
URBAN FREEWAY OR EXPRESSWAY
URBAN OTHER PRINCIPAL ARTERIAL
URBAN MINOR ARTERIAL
URBAN COLLECTOR
URBAN LOCAL
TOTAL
NFC
CODE
01
02
06
07
08
09
11
12
14
16
17
19
ROUTE MILES
Travel
Model/TRIMS
Model
TRIMS
Ratio
368.46
368.46
1.00
1581.97 1581.97
1.00
2595.38 2595.38
1.00
299.58 3625.57
0.08
0
8.03
0.00
0
0
-NA613.27
613.27
1.00
300.84
300.84
1.00
2717.87 2717.87
1.00
525.39 1803.42
0.29
0
238.57
0.00
0.00
0.00
-NA0.65
9,002.76 13,853.38
DVMT
Travel
Model
12,901,049
13,693,621
12,973,803
640,940
0
0
44,535,171
10,834,901
51,938,821
5,744,441
0
0
153,262,747
TRIMS
12,901,049
13,693,621
12,973,803
7,756,768
19,522
0
44,535,171
10,834,901
51,938,821
19,718,001
1,203,949
0
175,575,606
Model/TRIMS
Ratio
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.08
0.00
-NA1.00
1.00
1.00
0.29
0.00
-NA0.87
REGION 1 Network/TAZs
LEGEND:
Rural Interstate
Rural Principal Arterial
Rural Minor Arterial
Rural Local
Urban Interstate
Urban Freeway/Expressway
Urban Principal Arterial
Urban Minor Arterial
TAZ Boundary
REGION 2 Network/TAZs
LEGEND:
Rural Interstate
Rural Principal Arterial
Rural Minor Arterial
Rural Local
Urban Interstate
Urban Freeway/Expressway
Urban Principal Arterial
Urban Minor Arterial
TAZ Boundary
REGION 3 Network/TAZs
LEGEND:
Rural Interstate
Rural Principal Arterial
Rural Minor Arterial
Rural Local
Urban Interstate
Urban Freeway/Expressway
Urban Principal Arterial
Urban Minor Arterial
TAZ Boundary
REGION 4 Network/TAZs
LEGEND:
Rural Interstate
Rural Principal Arterial
Rural Minor Arterial
Rural Local
Urban Interstate
Urban Freeway/Expressway
Urban Principal Arterial
Urban Minor Arterial
TAZ Boundary
National Network
LEGEND:
Rural Interstate
Rural Principal Arterial
Rural Minor Arterial
Rural Local
Urban Interstate
Urban Freeway/Expressway
Urban Principal Arterial
Urban Minor Arterial
Background
• Trip Tables Are One of the Basic Elements
of Travel Demand Models
• Origin-Destination (O-D) Surveys
Traditional Method for Trip Table
Development
• Developing Trip Tables Using Traffic
Counts has been Source of Research for
Past 30 Years
Required Inputs
• Traffic Counts
• Traffic Assignment Network
• Seed Trip Table
Required Inputs – Traffic Counts
 Sample should come from widely
dispersed parts of the network
• Counts on Selected Links and on
Screenlines/Cutlines
• Counts Need to be Directional
Required Inputs – Traffic Assignment
Network
 Traffic Assignment Network MUST
Produce Realistic Results
• Equilibrium Assignment Process
Required Inputs – Seed Matrix
Potential Sources of Seed Matrix
• Default matrix
• Prior estimate based on survey
measurements
• Synthetically generated (e.g., from a
doubly-constrained trip distribution
model)
Seed Matrix
• Serves Two Purposes
 Set the dimensions for the output matrix
 Provide initial values for the estimated trip
table
• O-D Matrix Estimation only accounts for
trips between zones (diagonal cells will be
ignored – trips within a zone)
• Every cell that is expected to have a
positive flow must have a positive number
in the base matrix
Seed Matrix
• Three Trip Purposes Used
 Work
 Other
 Non-Home Based
• Used Trip Rates and Lengths From
National Household Survey
 Urban
 Rural
Seed Matrix – Trip Generation
2001 NHTS Database
Purpose
HBO
HBW
NHB
Grand Total
Total
4,341
2,296
3,588
10,225
Percent
42%
22%
36%
100%
● HBW – 1.70 trips/household
● HBO – 3.20 trips/household
● NHB – 2.65 trips/household
● Total – 7.55 trips/household
Seed Matrix – Trip Distribution
2001 NHTS Trip Length Distribution - HBW
20%
18%
NHTS Average Trip Length = 23.96 Min.
16%
GM Average Trip Length = 23.92 Min.
Percent of Trips
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Travel Time (in minutes)
75
80
85
90
95 100 105 110 115 120
Seed Matrix – Trip Distribution
2001 NHTS Trip Length Distribution - HBO
30.0%
25.0%
NHTS Average Trip Length = 17.62 Min.
GM Average Trip Length = 17.61 Min.
Percent of Trips
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
0
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120
Travel Time (in minutes)
Seed Matrix – Trip Distribution
2001 NHTS Trip Length Distribution - NHB
30%
NHTS Average Trip Length = 16.56 Min.
25%
GM Average Trip Length = 16.52 Min.
Percent of Trips
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Travel Time (in minutes)
75
80
85
90
95 100 105 110 115 120
Seed Matrix – Initial Matrix
 Not Person Trips;
 Merging of HBW, HBO, NHB, Internal-External
and External-External Trip Tables;
 Seed Matrix represents Passenger Cars and
Light Commercial Vehicle Trips Only; and,
 Additional Intercity (MPO to MPO) vehicle trips
were added in relation to 2000 CTPP Place of
Residence and Place of Work Information.
Traffic Counts
Traffic Assignment Network
Seed Trip Table
Application of TransCAD Matrix
Estimation Program
Application of TransCAD
Matrix Estimation
Program
Input Adjustments:
Network
Seed Table
Counts
Trip Table Evaluation
Good ?
YES
Base Year (2003)
Trip Table
NO
Matrix Evaluation Parameters
• Trip Length
• Goodness of Fit
• Screenlines
VMT
Area
Type
Rural
National
Functional Class
Interstate
Principal Arterial
Minor Arterial
Major Collector
Minor Collector
Local
Total
Urban
Interstate
Freeways/Expressways
Principal Arterial
Minor Arterial
Collector
Local
Total
TOTAL VMT
TDOT
TRIMS db (1)
17.822
13.795
14.646
9.374
0.011
0.000
55.648
24.305
4.200
26.718
8.928
0.396
0.000
64.547
120.196
Notes:
-NA- denotes that calculation is not applicable for that cell.
VMT in millions miles of travel.
(1) Includes passenger cars and single unit trucks.
(2) Includes all vehicles including multi-unit trucks.
Synthetic
Model (1)
17.513
14.490
19.917
0.000
0.000
0.000
51.920
24.667
4.171
29.643
7.839
0.000
0.000
66.320
118.239
Relative
Difference
-0.02
0.05
0.36
-NA-NA-NA-0.07
0.01
-0.01
0.11
-0.12
-1.00
-NA0.03
-0.02
FHWA
2001 (2)
26.071
15.775
16.655
10.285
9.074
9.074
86.934
25.011
4.416
28.260
21.005
6.586
13.079
98.359
185.293
Screenline – Region 1
18
12
94
8
88
82
70
64
Screenline Results – Region 1
Screenline
Orientation
Number
EW
8
EW
12
EW
18
NS
64
NS
70
NS
82
NS
88
NS
94
Total
Observed
Model
Volume
Volume
92,568
95,822
314,484 321,574
182,166 195,102
87,594
90,493
308,700 300,926
39,678
44,904
160,318 164,234
6,020
6,586
1,191,528 1,219,641
Relative
Difference
3.5%
2.3%
7.1%
3.3%
-2.5%
13.2%
2.4%
9.4%
2.4%
Max.
Allowable
24.7%
18.3%
20.2%
24.7%
18.3%
33.3%
20.2%
44.9%
18.3%
Screenline Results – Region 1
Screenline
Number
Route
U27
S58
I75
U11
S72
8
U411
U129
FOOTHI
U441
I40
Total
U27
S61
S62
S95
U25W
S131
I75
S33
I640
12
U11W
U11E
S92
U70
U70
I40
U25E
U321
S70
I26
Total
Observed
Model
Volume
Volume
4,916
4,979
1,378
1,407
32,680
31,785
3,572
3,419
4,726
5,699
15,588
18,269
3,932
3,929
3,168
2,988
5,488
6,006
17,120
17,341
92,568
95,822
3,792
4,892
7,030
7,352
22,870
17,802
22,722
22,632
16,898
24,239
13,990
13,323
49,314
47,359
41,650
45,412
47,520
43,907
13,688
15,819
18,664
19,958
9,274
6,805
6,074
8,898
3,724
4,221
19,488
20,006
7,072
7,111
2,010
2,966
2,214
2,256
6,490
6,616
314,484 321,574
Relative
Difference
1.3%
2.1%
-2.7%
-4.3%
20.6%
17.2%
-0.1%
-5.7%
9.4%
1.3%
3.5%
29.0%
4.6%
-22.2%
-0.4%
43.4%
-4.8%
-4.0%
9.0%
-7.6%
15.6%
6.9%
-26.6%
46.5%
13.3%
2.7%
0.6%
47.6%
1.9%
1.9%
2.3%
Max.
Allowable
47.1%
76.1%
23.0%
53.1%
47.8%
30.4%
51.2%
55.6%
45.1%
29.4%
24.7%
51.9%
41.1%
26.3%
26.4%
29.5%
31.7%
19.7%
21.0%
20.0%
32.0%
28.4%
37.0%
43.4%
52.3%
28.0%
41.0%
66.0%
63.6%
42.4%
9.4%
Screenline Results – Region 1
Screenline
Number
Route
U27
U25W
I75
U25W
U25E
S70
I-181
18
I81
U11W
U19
S34
U421
U421
Total
S52
S62
I40
U27
U70
S58
I75
U11
U411
S39
64
Total
Observed
Model
Volume
Volume
6,740
9,266
8,268
8,165
25,044
25,459
1,294
2,176
19,484
22,946
238
443
24,960
24,890
11,760
11,631
20,614
25,472
22,988
22,851
18,692
17,437
9,232
12,695
6,342
5,202
6,510
6,469
182,166 195,102
1,268
1,494
1,146
1,151
24,428
24,321
13,456
13,259
4,150
3,916
1,378
1,306
29,668
29,113
5,054
5,627
5,748
8,955
1,298
1,351
87,594
90,493
Relative
Difference
37.5%
-1.2%
1.7%
68.2%
17.8%
86.1%
-0.3%
-1.1%
23.6%
-0.6%
-6.7%
37.5%
-18.0%
-0.6%
7.1%
17.9%
0.5%
-0.4%
-1.5%
-5.6%
-5.3%
-1.9%
11.3%
55.8%
4.1%
3.3%
Max.
Allowable
41.8%
38.7%
25.5%
77.9%
28.0%
147.6%
25.5%
33.9%
27.4%
26.3%
28.4%
37.1%
42.7%
42.3%
20.2%
78.5%
81.5%
25.7%
32.2%
50.2%
76.1%
23.9%
46.6%
44.4%
77.8%
13.9%
Screenline Results – Region 1
Screenline
Number
Route
U25W
S63
U441
I75
S61
U25W
S62
70
S131
I75
U70
S332
U321
U411
S72
Total
S33
U11W
U11E
I81
U321
U25
82
Total
Observed
Model
Volume
Volume
2,376
2,176
19,796
26,278
1,100
1,206
35,166
32,197
25,676
20,207
17,344
17,910
10,812
13,055
8,694
6,435
11,496
16,013
114,088 108,450
27,792
24,986
8,950
8,069
13,222
12,007
11,850
11,739
338
198
308,700 300,926
644
1,575
8,180
8,348
5,568
6,490
22,150
22,429
3,136
6,062
4,980
4,930
44,658
49,834
Relative
Difference
-8.4%
32.7%
9.7%
-8.4%
-21.3%
3.3%
20.7%
-26.0%
39.3%
-4.9%
-10.1%
-9.8%
-9.2%
-0.9%
-41.4%
-2.5%
144.6%
2.1%
16.6%
1.3%
93.3%
-1.0%
11.6%
Max.
Allowable
61.9%
27.8%
82.8%
22.4%
25.2%
29.2%
34.9%
37.9%
34.1%
13.4%
24.5%
37.5%
32.4%
33.8%
129.3%
18.3%
101.4%
38.8%
44.9%
26.7%
55.8%
46.8%
20.5%
Screenline Results – Region 1
Screenline
Number
Route
U11W
S126
I81
S75
S36
I181
S354
U321
I26
88
Total
U421
S67
U321
94
Total
Observed
Model
Volume
Volume
17,820
18,404
8,360
8,278
24,040
25,165
5,940
8,982
11,268
17,056
12,732
9,160
31,680
30,622
14,158
12,513
26,156
25,071
8,164
8,985
160,318 164,234
920
1,393
3,620
3,392
1,480
1,801
6,020
6,586
Relative
Difference
3.3%
-1.0%
4.7%
51.2%
51.4%
-28.1%
-3.3%
-11.6%
-4.1%
10.1%
2.4%
51.4%
-6.3%
21.7%
9.4%
Max.
Allowable
28.9%
38.5%
25.8%
43.8%
34.4%
32.9%
23.3%
31.6%
25.0%
38.9%
20.2%
88.6%
52.8%
74.0%
43.6%
Screenline – Region 2
18
54
12
46
4
0
62
Screenline Results – Region 2
Screenline
Orientation
Number
EW
0
EW
4
EW
12
EW
18
NS
46
NS
54
NS
62
Total
Observed
Model
Relative
Max.
Volume
Volume Difference
Allowable
224,862 237,999
5.8%
18.3%
139,294 140,989
1.2%
20.2%
80,352
84,951
5.7%
24.7%
14,010
12,938
-7.6%
44.9%
93,110
92,471
-0.7%
24.7%
98,498
92,582
-6.0%
24.7%
99,580 100,712
1.1%
24.7%
749,706 762,643
1.7%
18.3%
Screenline Results – Region 2
Screenline
Number
Route
S16
S56
U72
I24
I24
U11
0
S148
S17
U27
I75
S60
U411
S68
Total
U41 A
I24
U41
S56
S108
S28
U127
4
S111
U27
S60
I75
U11
S30
U411
S310
Total
Observed
Model
Relative
Volume
Volume Difference
496
814
64.0%
396
397
0.2%
12,882
12,894
0.1%
32,026
32,112
0.3%
44,956
44,959
0.0%
5,318
5,424
2.0%
1,614
1,614
0.0%
11,762
11,805
0.4%
24,250
23,111
-4.7%
74,568
85,884
15.2%
5,162
7,143
38.4%
4,442
4,344
-2.2%
6,990
7,498
7.3%
224,862 237,999
5.8%
10,642
10,891
2.3%
23,962
23,765
-0.8%
2,704
2,478
-8.4%
3,636
3,828
5.3%
1,246
2,526
102.7%
6,092
7,921
30.0%
1,962
3,540
80.4%
6,444
5,719
-11.2%
18,304
18,009
-1.6%
4,926
4,386
-11.0%
28,080
28,103
0.1%
5,234
5,108
-2.4%
10,024
10,858
8.3%
11,146
8,953
-19.7%
4,892
4,903
0.2%
139,294 140,989
1.2%
Max.
Allowable
111.9%
121.8%
32.7%
23.2%
20.4%
45.7%
71.7%
33.9%
25.8%
15.5%
46.2%
48.9%
41.2%
18.3%
35.2%
25.9%
59.0%
52.7%
79.0%
43.4%
66.6%
42.5%
28.7%
47.0%
24.4%
46.0%
36.0%
34.6%
47.1%
20.2%
Screenline Results – Region 2
Screenline
Number
Route
U70
S56
S111
U70N
I40
12
U127
S298
S101
Total
S151
S53
S52
S42
U127
18
Total
S96
U70S
I24
U41
S55
U41 A
U41 A
U64
S16
46
Total
Observed
Model
Relative
Volume
Volume Difference
4,666
4,956
6.2%
3,842
3,811
-0.8%
12,872
12,986
0.9%
3,416
2,425
-29.0%
23,690
27,105
14.4%
10,370
11,665
12.5%
2,416
2,489
3.0%
14,482
14,525
0.3%
2,772
3,256
17.5%
1,826
1,733
-5.1%
80,352
84,951
5.7%
754
642
-14.8%
2,784
2,155
-22.6%
2,988
3,337
11.7%
4,042
4,673
15.6%
3,442
2,131
-38.1%
14,010
12,938
-7.6%
3,412
4,109
20.4%
11,702
10,461
-10.6%
28,666
27,906
-2.7%
7,902
6,941
-12.2%
14,764
14,975
1.4%
13,978
14,016
0.3%
7,596
10,378
36.6%
3,298
2,872
-12.9%
1,792
814
-54.6%
93,110
92,471
-0.7%
Max.
Allowable
48.0%
51.7%
32.7%
54.0%
26.0%
35.5%
61.5%
31.3%
58.4%
68.4%
24.7%
95.5%
58.3%
56.8%
50.7%
53.8%
44.9%
54.0%
33.9%
24.2%
39.3%
31.1%
31.7%
39.9%
54.7%
68.9%
24.7%
Screenline Results – Region 2
Screenline
Number
Route
S53
S52
S136
S85
S111
0
U70N
54
I40
U70
S30
S111
S28
S283
U41
Total
S52
S62
I40
U70
U27
S68
S58
62
S30
0
I75
0
U11
U64
S313
Total
Observed
Model
Relative
Volume
Volume Difference
4,750
4,669
-1.7%
2,988
3,997
33.8%
456
346
-24.2%
1,216
1,057
-13.0%
15,210
12,137
-20.2%
7,760
7,658
-1.3%
8,386
8,245
-1.7%
27,194
25,744
-5.3%
11,760
11,127
-5.4%
1,386
976
-29.6%
4,946
4,833
-2.3%
4,948
4,812
-2.8%
3,656
3,415
-6.6%
3,842
3,566
-7.2%
98,498
92,582
-6.0%
1,322
1,263
-4.4%
632
688
8.9%
20,866
22,561
8.1%
1,822
1,878
3.1%
4,916
4,979
1.3%
5,218
5,483
5.1%
1,840
1,584
-13.9%
5,636
4,707
-16.5%
1,826
2,369
29.7%
30,040
29,252
-2.6%
4,950
4,188
-15.4%
9,526
9,391
-1.4%
9,304
10,763
15.7%
1,682
1,605
-4.6%
99,580 100,712
1.1%
Max.
Allowable
47.7%
56.8%
115.5%
79.7%
30.7%
39.6%
38.5%
24.7%
33.9%
75.9%
47.0%
46.9%
52.6%
51.7%
24.7%
77.3%
102.1%
27.3%
68.5%
47.1%
46.0%
68.2%
44.7%
68.4%
23.8%
46.9%
36.7%
37.0%
70.6%
24.7%
Screenline – Region 3
18
48
12
24
6
36
0
40
Screenline Results – Region 3
Screenline
Orientation
Number
EW
0
EW
6
EW
12
EW
18
NS
24
NS
36
NS
40
NS
48
Total
Observed
Model
Volume
Volume
45,998
47,721
73,952
67,837
344,268 343,745
175,380 178,665
34,816
38,507
241,488 251,439
455,378 464,695
121,980 121,155
1,493,260 1,513,765
Relative
Difference
3.7%
-8.3%
-0.2%
1.9%
10.6%
4.1%
2.0%
-0.7%
1.4%
Max.
Allowable
33.3%
33.3%
18.3%
20.2%
33.3%
18.3%
18.3%
24.7%
18.3%
Screenline Results – Region 3
Screenline
Number
Route
S69
PNA D
S13
U43
0
S11
I65
U31
U231
S97
Total
S13
S48
S20
U43
U31
6
I65
U431
U31 A
U41 A
U231
S64
Total
Observed
Model
Volume
Volume
2,050
1,876
2,232
2,232
2,502
2,509
8,142
8,158
2,382
2,374
10,028
10,278
6,106
7,118
10,184
10,952
2,372
2,224
45,998
47,721
590
721
1,062
1,358
2,940
2,292
11,880
11,081
2,922
4,125
13,002
13,038
1,746
2,042
4,648
4,573
9,800
7,738
21,782
16,312
3,580
4,558
73,952
67,837
Relative
Difference
-8.5%
0.0%
0.3%
0.2%
-0.3%
2.5%
16.6%
7.5%
-6.2%
3.7%
22.2%
27.8%
-22.1%
-6.7%
41.2%
0.3%
17.0%
-1.6%
-21.0%
-25.1%
27.3%
-8.3%
Max.
Allowable
65.5%
63.4%
60.7%
38.9%
61.9%
36.0%
43.4%
35.7%
62.0%
33.3%
104.8%
83.9%
57.1%
33.7%
57.3%
32.6%
69.6%
48.1%
36.3%
26.8%
53.0%
33.3%
Screenline Results – Region 3
Screenline
Number
Route
S69
PNA D
S13
U43
0
S11
I65
U31
U231
S97
Total
S13
S48
S20
U43
U31
6
I65
U431
U31 A
U41 A
U231
S64
Total
Observed
Model
Volume
Volume
2,050
1,876
2,232
2,232
2,502
2,509
8,142
8,158
2,382
2,374
10,028
10,278
6,106
7,118
10,184
10,952
2,372
2,224
45,998
47,721
590
721
1,062
1,358
2,940
2,292
11,880
11,081
2,922
4,125
13,002
13,038
1,746
2,042
4,648
4,573
9,800
7,738
21,782
16,312
3,580
4,558
73,952
67,837
Relative
Difference
-8.5%
0.0%
0.3%
0.2%
-0.3%
2.5%
16.6%
7.5%
-6.2%
3.7%
22.2%
27.8%
-22.1%
-6.7%
41.2%
0.3%
17.0%
-1.6%
-21.0%
-25.1%
27.3%
-8.3%
Max.
Allowable
65.5%
63.4%
60.7%
38.9%
61.9%
36.0%
43.4%
35.7%
62.0%
33.3%
104.8%
83.9%
57.1%
33.7%
57.3%
32.6%
69.6%
48.1%
36.3%
26.8%
53.0%
33.3%
Screenline Results – Region 3
Screenline
Number
Route
S13
S48
I40
S46
0
S96
S96
S96
12
U431
U31
I65
I24
U41
I840 F
U231
S96
Total
U79
S13
U41 A
I24
U41
S49
18
I65
U31W
S25
S109
U31E
S10
S56
Total
Observed
Model
Volume
Volume
2,874
2,940
1,674
1,608
19,188
19,646
11,650
12,207
2,940
2,804
6,626
7,058
13,188
15,515
7,546
11,321
14,804
15,281
24,028
21,643
97,530
98,541
91,962
91,456
24,454
16,554
15,404
16,441
7,566
7,284
2,834
3,445
344,268 343,745
8,826
7,940
21,160
25,596
16,276
18,159
31,500
33,338
14,896
11,482
5,430
5,519
41,380
41,034
7,694
7,390
2,188
2,542
8,418
9,260
9,944
10,079
5,520
4,213
2,148
2,113
175,380 178,665
Relative
Difference
2.3%
-3.9%
2.4%
4.8%
-4.6%
6.5%
17.6%
50.0%
3.2%
-9.9%
1.0%
-0.5%
-32.3%
6.7%
-3.7%
21.6%
-0.2%
-10.0%
21.0%
11.6%
5.8%
-22.9%
1.6%
-0.8%
-4.0%
16.2%
10.0%
1.4%
-23.7%
-1.6%
1.9%
Max.
Allowable
57.6%
70.7%
28.1%
34.0%
57.1%
42.0%
32.4%
40.0%
31.0%
25.9%
13.7%
13.9%
25.7%
30.6%
40.0%
57.9%
18.3%
37.7%
27.1%
29.9%
23.3%
31.0%
45.3%
21.1%
39.7%
63.9%
38.4%
36.1%
45.0%
64.3%
20.2%
Screenline Results – Region 3
Screenline
Route
Number
U79
U70
24
I40
U412
U64
Total
U41
S49
I24
U41 A
S12
U70
I40
U70S
36
S100
S96
U31
U412
S50
U31 A
U31
Total
Model
Observed
Volume
Volume
5,239
3,696
6,866
7,084
20,071
19,564
3,223
2,246
3,109
2,226
38,507
34,816
4,645
4,638
6,711
6,850
37,914
38,156
6,469
6,584
10,467
10,780
12,594
3,900
46,646
49,216
24,260
23,860
21,361
21,464
10,531
10,556
17,614
11,888
18,967
23,732
16,526
13,116
8,531
8,816
4,658
4,512
3,546
3,420
241,488 251,439
Relative
Difference
41.7%
-3.1%
2.6%
43.5%
39.7%
10.6%
0.2%
-2.0%
-0.6%
-1.7%
-2.9%
222.9%
-5.2%
1.7%
-0.5%
-0.2%
48.2%
-20.1%
26.0%
-3.2%
3.2%
3.7%
4.1%
Max.
Allowable
52.4%
41.0%
27.9%
63.3%
63.5%
33.3%
48.1%
41.5%
21.7%
42.1%
35.0%
51.4%
19.7%
25.9%
27.0%
35.3%
33.7%
26.0%
32.5%
37.7%
48.6%
54.0%
18.3%
Screenline Results – Region 3
Screenline
Number
Route
I65
U31W
S25
S386
U31E
S45
U70N
I40
0
40
U70S
S254
0
I24
S96
U41 A
S64
U431
U64
U231
Total
S52
S151
S56
S262
S25
U70N
I40
S53
U70
48
S96
U70S
U41
I24
S64
U41 A
S55
U64
S97
Total
Observed
Model
Relative
Volume
Volume Difference
37,860
37,604
-0.7%
2,756
3,088
12.0%
2,376
2,930
23.3%
39,542
38,195
-3.4%
35,196
45,689
29.8%
31,126
31,360
0.8%
29,058
29,470
1.4%
91,280
89,725
-1.7%
5,880
9,698
64.9%
21,384
26,074
21.9%
31,108
25,148
-19.2%
13,258
12,849
-3.1%
83,660
82,270
-1.7%
4,342
4,169
-4.0%
3,066
3,085
0.6%
2,990
3,222
7.8%
3,478
4,632
33.2%
4,834
4,855
0.4%
12,184
10,633
-12.7%
455,378 464,695
2.0%
2,736
2,184
-20.2%
892
642
-28.0%
476
479
0.7%
2,308
2,404
4.1%
8,556
7,611
-11.0%
3,584
3,666
2.3%
27,004
26,413
-2.2%
1,854
1,880
1.4%
5,126
4,587
-10.5%
3,872
3,542
-8.5%
11,878
12,042
1.4%
1,604
1,644
2.5%
30,600
30,513
-0.3%
2,464
2,164
-12.2%
7,962
9,866
23.9%
5,482
5,733
4.6%
3,662
3,772
3.0%
1,920
2,013
4.9%
121,980 121,155
-0.7%
Max.
Allowable
21.8%
58.6%
61.9%
21.4%
22.4%
23.4%
24.1%
13.9%
44.0%
27.0%
23.5%
32.4%
14.3%
49.3%
56.2%
56.8%
53.6%
47.4%
33.4%
18.3%
58.7%
89.6%
113.6%
62.6%
38.2%
53.0%
24.7%
68.0%
46.3%
51.5%
33.7%
71.8%
23.6%
61.1%
39.2%
45.2%
52.6%
67.1%
24.7%
Screenline – Region 4
18
22
18
12
4
0
0
Screenline Results – Region 4
Screenline
Orientation
Number
EW
0
EW
10
EW
18
NS
0
NS
4
NS
8
NS
18
NS
22
Total
Observed
Model
Volume
Volume
178,660 197,000
58,420
69,371
24,914
29,303
116,718 127,834
304,416 264,314
90,818
98,006
64,464
63,735
52,054
47,788
890,464 897,351
Relative
Difference
10.3%
18.7%
17.6%
9.5%
-13.2%
7.9%
-1.1%
-8.2%
0.8%
Max.
Allowable
20.2%
33.3%
44.9%
24.7%
18.3%
24.7%
33.3%
33.3%
18.3%
Screenline Results – Region 4
Screenline
Route
Number
U61
0
U51
I55
0
U78
0
0
U72
S18
S125
U45
S22
S57
Total
U51
U45W
U79
U45E
10
U70
S22
0
U641
0
Total
Model
Observed
Volume
Volume
24,185
21,418
3,199
3,412
12,782
12,782
56,206
54,362
20,254
13,950
34,369
32,692
8,458
7,440
15,716
13,348
1,757
1,738
3,748
3,620
10,016
7,588
2,603
2,610
3,708
3,700
178,660 197,000
10,632
10,256
10,053
9,618
19,979
10,322
14,439
14,458
3,451
3,840
5,381
4,708
599
496
4,461
4,326
376
396
69,371
58,420
Relative
Difference
12.9%
-6.3%
0.0%
3.4%
45.2%
5.1%
13.7%
17.7%
1.1%
3.5%
32.0%
-0.3%
0.2%
10.3%
3.7%
4.5%
93.6%
-0.1%
-10.1%
14.3%
20.8%
3.1%
-5.1%
18.7%
Max.
Allowable
27.0%
54.0%
32.8%
19.4%
31.7%
23.0%
40.2%
32.3%
69.7%
52.8%
39.9%
59.8%
52.4%
20.2%
35.7%
36.5%
35.6%
31.3%
51.7%
47.8%
111.9%
49.4%
121.8%
33.3%
Screenline Results – Region 4
Screenline
Number
Route
S78
U51
18
U51
U45E
U641
Total
I40
I55
0
Total
Observed
Model
Volume
Volume
510
502
5,404
7,624
8,436
10,929
5,080
4,754
5,484
5,493
24,914
29,303
42,008
44,862
38,330
46,773
9,500
9,054
26,880
27,145
116,718 127,834
Relative
Difference
-1.5%
41.1%
29.6%
-6.4%
0.2%
17.6%
6.8%
22.0%
-4.7%
1.0%
9.5%
Max.
Allowable
110.7%
45.4%
38.4%
46.5%
45.2%
44.9%
20.9%
21.7%
36.7%
24.8%
24.7%
Screenline Results – Region 4
Screenline
Route
Number
U51
S14
S205
U79
U64
4
I40
S23
U72
S385
0
Total
S78
I155
S88
U51
S19
S54
8
U70
I40
S59
U64
S57
U72
Total
Model
Observed
Volume
Volume
18,241
18,262
6,746
7,556
11,249
8,168
16,366
16,366
33,424
34,160
66,184
86,210
28,149
15,840
27,047
36,920
46,560
67,074
10,348
13,860
304,416 264,314
3,671
3,308
7,866
6,414
1,268
1,026
10,632
10,520
3,307
3,250
2,013
2,106
1,768
1,436
22,031
22,740
2,767
1,960
14,215
13,680
12,116
11,030
16,353
13,348
98,006
90,818
Relative
Difference
-0.1%
-10.7%
37.7%
0.0%
-2.2%
-23.2%
77.7%
-26.7%
-30.6%
-25.3%
-13.2%
11.0%
22.6%
23.6%
1.1%
1.7%
-4.4%
23.1%
-3.1%
41.2%
3.9%
9.8%
22.5%
7.9%
Max.
Allowable
28.7%
40.0%
38.9%
29.9%
22.6%
14.0%
30.3%
22.0%
16.7%
31.8%
18.3%
54.7%
42.6%
85.0%
35.3%
55.0%
64.8%
74.9%
26.4%
66.6%
32.0%
34.7%
32.3%
24.7%
Screenline Results – Region 4
Screenline
Number
Route
S54
S22
U79
U70 A
S104
18
U70
I40
U412
S100
U64
S57
Total
U79
U70
I40
U412
22
S100
0
U64
S69
Total
Observed
Model
Volume
Volume
2,574
2,743
7,498
8,144
5,870
5,853
2,406
2,444
874
850
3,582
3,527
14,756
17,859
9,124
7,908
9,992
6,549
4,812
4,845
2,976
3,012
64,464
63,735
6,612
5,239
6,774
5,795
22,246
21,011
7,634
7,054
3,416
2,979
448
336
2,724
3,178
2,200
2,198
52,054
47,788
Relative
Difference
6.5%
8.6%
-0.3%
1.6%
-2.8%
-1.5%
21.0%
-13.3%
-34.5%
0.7%
1.2%
-1.1%
-20.8%
-14.5%
-5.6%
-7.6%
-12.8%
-24.9%
16.7%
-0.1%
-8.2%
Max.
Allowable
60.1%
40.1%
44.0%
61.6%
90.3%
53.0%
31.1%
37.3%
36.0%
47.4%
56.9%
33.3%
42.1%
41.7%
26.6%
39.9%
54.0%
116.3%
58.8%
63.8%
33.3%
Screenline Results – River Crossings
Screenline
River
Route
S166
I24
U41
U27
U127
S319
S153
S60
S30
Tennessee
S68
S58
I75
U11
U321
N140
U129
U441
Total
Cumberland
Total
U79
S13
S49
S155
U41 A
I65
U41
I24
S155
S45
S109
U231
S25
S262
S56
S52
Observed
Model
Volume
Volume
3,684
4,105
31,618
30,091
3,920
2,835
60,560
53,874
18,396
32,016
30,478
28,547
41,386
40,028
3,402
4,153
1,796
2,533
5,218
5,483
11,872
9,534
36,692
36,267
7,342
9,460
10,688
12,836
41,412
43,903
45,804
46,433
41,092
50,715
11,880
18,084
407,240 430,895
7,446
7,940
21,160
21,226
10,732
9,821
28,520
21,917
41,514
51,435
86,258
96,578
27,030
40,459
111,780 126,414
44,288
42,744
20,434
20,101
16,634
16,907
6,120
6,119
8,302
8,517
1,644
1,726
2,538
1,957
5,588
6,769
439,988 480,630
Relative
Difference
11.4%
-4.8%
-27.7%
-11.0%
74.0%
-6.3%
-3.3%
22.1%
41.0%
5.1%
-19.7%
-1.2%
28.8%
20.1%
6.0%
1.4%
23.4%
52.2%
5.8%
6.6%
0.3%
-8.5%
-23.2%
23.9%
12.0%
49.7%
13.1%
-3.5%
-1.6%
1.6%
0.0%
2.6%
5.0%
-22.9%
21.1%
9.2%
Max.
Allowable
52.5%
23.3%
51.3%
18.0%
28.6%
23.6%
21.1%
54.1%
68.8%
46.0%
33.7%
22.0%
40.4%
35.1%
21.1%
20.3%
21.1%
33.7%
18.3%
40.2%
27.1%
35.0%
24.2%
21.0%
14.0%
24.7%
13.5%
20.5%
27.5%
29.7%
43.3%
38.6%
71.2%
60.4%
44.8%
18.3%
Screenline Results – River Crossings
Screenline
River
Route
U70
I40
S58
Clinch
S95
S62
U25W
S61
Total
I40
U70
S92
Holst
U25E
S56
S66
Total
S66
French
S92
Broad
U25
Total
Observed
Model
Volume
Volume
12,446
8,917
35,120
36,710
11,426
12,064
8,070
7,876
33,948
33,962
20,534
13,302
21,580
20,207
143,124 133,038
62,816
63,839
39,582
39,420
4,268
7,231
21,376
23,531
11,780
7,703
5,588
6,769
145,410 148,494
25,236
25,014
2,544
4,650
21,534
21,461
49,314
51,125
Relative
Difference
-28.4%
4.5%
5.6%
-2.4%
0.0%
-35.2%
-6.4%
-7.0%
1.6%
-0.4%
69.4%
10.1%
-34.6%
21.1%
2.1%
-0.9%
82.8%
-0.3%
3.7%
Max.
Allowable
33.1%
22.4%
34.2%
39.0%
22.7%
27.4%
26.9%
20.2%
17.5%
21.4%
49.6%
27.0%
33.8%
44.8%
20.2%
25.4%
60.3%
26.9%
33.3%
RMSE by Vol. Grp.– Statewide
VOLUME
GROUP
VOLUME
RANGE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 - 2500
2500 - 5000
5000 - 10000
10000 -15000
15000 - 20000
20000 - 30000
30000 - 40000
40000 - 50000
50000+
% ROOT
NO. OF
MEAN
COUNT
SQUARE
STATIONS ERROR
67
77
79
55
21
43
28
13
13
27.2%
21.8%
15.9%
35.3%
25.4%
20.2%
18.2%
8.8%
5.1%
Observed/Model Correlation
140,000
120,000
R 2 = 0.969
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
Observed
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
0
Model
100,000
Total Freight
Movement From
Reebie Data
Truck
(Tons)
Rail
(Tons)
Trucks
Rail Cars
Commodity Categories
Group
No.
Statewide Freight Model
Commodity Group
Name
1
Petroleum & Minerals
511,600,000
2
Food Products
107,100,000
3
Chemicals
123,300,000
4
Timber & Lumber
49,100,000
5
Agriculture
158,000,000
6
Machinery
49,300,000
7
Paper Products
43,100,000
8
Primary Metal
78,900,000
9
Waste Materials
20,600,000
10
Manufactured Household & Other
34,000,000
11
Miscellaneous & Container
ALL COMMODITY GROUPS
Commodity
Flow
(Annual Tons)
104,500,000
1,279,500,000
Mode Share By Distance
Total Commodity Shipped by Distance (Truck & Rail)
100,000,000
Truck
90,000,000
Rail
80,000,000
Commodity (Tons)
70,000,000
60,000,000
50,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
0
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Distance (Mile)
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
W
as
te
M
Ti
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b e teri
al
r&
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Lu
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ar
Pa y M
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ct
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Ag
C
g
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m
ul
ic
tu
al
re
s
Pr
od
uc
t
Commodity Growth (Million Tons)
Truck and Rail
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Year 2001
Year 2030
W
as
te
M
Ti
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m
b e teri
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r&
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Lu
Pr
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Pa y M
et
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M
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ct
S
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pm
en
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du
io
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M
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Ag
C
g
he
ri c
m
ul
ic
tu
al
re
s
Pr
od
uc
t
Commodity Growth (Million Tons)
Trucks (78% of Total)
700
600
500
400
Year 2003
300
Year 2030
200
100
0
2003 Truck Assignment
2030 Truck Assignment
2003 Volume-to-Capacity Ratio
Existing Network
2030 Volume-to-Capacity Ratio
Existing Network
2003 Volumes
Existing Network
2030 Volumes
Existing Network