The determinants of the distance to TFP frontier among European firms M. Dolores Añón Higón Juan A. Máñez María E. Rochina-Barrachina Amparo Sanchis* Juan A. Sanchis Universitat de València and ERI-CES (Preliminary version, please do not quote) Abstract In this paper we characterize TFP frontier firms at the industry level within the European Union during the period 2003-2014, and explore the determinants of the firms’ distance to the frontier. We find that larger, more capital-intensive, and more labour skilled firms are closer to the productivity frontier. In contrast, older firms are further away from the frontier. In addition, we obtain that a number of economic and institutional factors, such as tertiary education, trade openness, easiness in getting credit and governance quality, all positively affect the catching up of laggards towards the productivity frontier. We also examine the moderating effect of the Great Recession on these determinants and find differentiated effects when analysing separately manufacturing, non-financial market services and other production. * Corresponding author: Facultat d’ Economia, Universitat de València, Avinguda Tarongers, s/n, 46022 València; e-mail: [email protected] Financial support under Framework contract ENTR/300/PP/2013/FC-WIFO is gratefully acknowledged. The content of this paper does not reflect the official opinion of the European Commission. Responsibility for the information and views expressed in this paper lies entirely with the authors. 1 1. Introduction. During the last decade, especially after the financial crisis starting in 2008, there has been a renewed interest in understanding the factors driving productivity differences across countries, industries and firms. A number of papers have shed light on how cross-country differences in economic outcomes relate to differences in the within-industry productivity dispersion across firms (Bartlesman et al., 2013; Restuccia and Rogerson, 2008; Hsieh and Klenow, 2009). Some studies have also addressed the factors explaining these productivity differentials, as well as the determinants of their persistence (Syverson, 2011). However, little is known about the drivers behind convergence of laggards to the best performing firms in their industry (technological frontier firms). There is also little evidence on the role of the Great Recession as a moderating factor affecting how firm and country heterogeneity explains the productivity gap between frontier and non-frontier firms and, thus, the within-industry productivity catching-up process. The aim of this paper is fill this gap by providing fresh evidence on the factors making firms to converge to the better performing firms in their industry at the European level. In particular, we analyse the factors determining the distance-tofrontier of laggard firms. With this aim, we test how firms’ characteristics and country’ economic and institutional features may influence a firm’s TFP relative position to the frontier. We also take into account the role of the cycle as a moderating factor in the impact of these factors and distinguish among firms in manufacturing, non-financial market services and other production. Finally, we aim also at providing guidance on how policy makers may further stimulate the productivity growth of firms lagging behind the productivity frontier. Fostering the productivity level of laggard firms within industries is an important policy issue, especially in countries with more skewed industrial structures where more firms linger far from technological excellence. In this context, it is crucial to understand the factors determining the distance-to-frontier of laggard firms. Using European firm-level data from AMADEUS for the period 2003 to 2014, we identify the technological frontier firms by industry within the European Union, and explore which firm and country-level characteristics determine the distance of other firms in the same industry to the EU frontier firms. To analyse the determinants of the within-industry distance to the TFP frontier we first provide a 2 description of the characteristics of the most productive firms, that is, the frontier firms, in comparison with the non-frontier firms. We then analyse the determinants of firms’ TFP gaps. To take into account the moderating effect of the cycle, we analyse two different sub periods, namely, the period prior to the last financial crisis, which we called pre-crisis years, 2003-2007, and the postcrisis years, 2008-2014. This paper contributes to the scarce existing literature on the characteristics of firms operating at the productivity frontier and on the determinants of the distance to the frontier. Andrews et al. (2016) analyse productivity divergence from frontier firms using a micro-level dataset of firms in OECD countries. Other related papers using firm-level dada to analyse the catching up to the technological frontier are Bartelsman et al. (2008) for a group of five European countries and the US, Iacovone and Crespi (2010) for México, and Van der Wiel et al. (2008) for the Netherlands. However, we are not aware of any existing study attempting to capture the determinants of the catching up to the EU technological frontier, and the moderating role of the Great Recession. Our main findings may be summarized as follows. First, from a descriptive point of view, our results indicate that relative to non-frontier firms, frontier firms are larger, more capital intensive, have higher value added, earnings and profits, and pay higher wages per employee. Regarding persistence of firms in the frontier status, we observe that, generally, persistence is higher among frontier firms in manufacturing as compared to frontier firms in non-financial market services. Third, the regression analysis of the determinants of the TFP gap between frontier and non-frontier firms within industries suggests that, in general, larger, more capital-intensive and more labour skilled firms are closer to the frontier. In contrast, older firms are further away from the frontier. At the country level, we obtain that a number of economic and institutional factors, such as tertiary education, trade openness, easiness in obtaining credit and governance quality, all play a significant role in reducing the distance of laggards to the frontier. As regards the role of the cycle in moderating the effect of these factors, we obtain different patterns when analysing separately manufacturing, non-financial market services and other production. In particular, we obtain that in manufacturing and other production, the effect of these factors is more relevant during the post-crisis 3 period, whereas for firms in non-financial market services the effect of these determinants seems to be stronger during the pre-crisis period. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 presents the data we use, based on AMADEUS, and describes the measurement of firms’ productivity. Section 3 provides a careful characterization of the best performing or EU frontier firms versus non-frontier firms. Section 4 presents a regression analysis of the determinants of TFP gaps, looking at firm specific and country level factors. Finally, section 5 summarizes the main results and concludes. 2. Data and measurement of productivity. The data we analyse are drawn from AMADEUS, a database providing firms’ balance sheet information, such as value added, assets, age, and number of employees, for all EU countries. We use this information to estimate TFP at the firm level in a cross-country setting. Following Arnold et al. (2008), Gal (2013), and Andrews et al. (2015), we focus on the set of firms with more than 20 employees as this helps to obtain a better coverage and a more balanced sample. Arnold et al. (2008) point out that AMADEUS does not have satisfactory coverage of firms with less than 20 employees; therefore, the resampling procedure targets the size-sector-country distribution of the true population of firms with 20 employees and more. Andrews et al. (2015) for ORBIS highlight a similar problem, and also exclude firms with less than 20 employees.1 Further, to ensure that the computation of TFP is feasible for the largest possible number of firms we follow Gal (2013), who suggests an imputation methodology, improving the original coverage of AMADEUS. Our working sample is largely coherent with that in Gal (2013) for the overlapping countries. Also following Gal (2013), currency conversion based on PPPs and deflation are applied to ensure comparability of productivity measures across countries and over time. 1 A key drawback of ORBIS and AMADEUS is that it is a selected sample of larger and more productive firms, which tends to result in smaller and younger firms being under-represented in some economies. 4 We construct a firm-level TFP using a Cobb-Douglas production function that is estimated with the information contained in the AMADEUS database. 2 This production function for firm i in sector p, year t, and country c may be defined as: β β Lp Y = f (Liptc , K iptc ,Wiptc ) = Liptc K iptcKp exp(ω iptc ) ! iptc (1) where Y is value added, L is labour, K is capital and ω is the TFP. We suppose that capital is a dynamic input and evolves according to a given law of motion that is not correlated with contemporary productivity shocks (i.e., is a state variable), while labour and materials are inputs that can be freely adjusted when the company is affected by a shock of productivity (i.e., both are variables inputs without adjustment costs). We consider the following log version of the production function (1): y = β0p + βLp liptc + βKpk iptc + ω iptc + ηiptc ! iptc (2) where yiptc is the natural log of value added, liptc is the natural log of labour and kiptc is the natural log of capital. As for the unobservables, ω iptc is the firm productivity (not observed by the econometrician but observable or predictable by firms) and ηiptc is a standard i.i.d. error term that is neither observed nor predictable by the firm. Under the assumption that capital is a state variable, whereas labour and intermediate materials are inputs that can be adjusted whenever the firm faces a productivity shock, Olley and Pakes (1996, hereafter OP) show how to obtain consistent estimates of the production function coefficients using a semiparametric procedure (see also Levinsohn and Petrin, 2003, hereafter LP, for a closely related estimation strategy). However, here we follow Wooldridge (2009), who argues that both OP and LP’s estimation methods can be reconsidered as consisting of two equations which can be jointly estimated by GMM: the first equation tackles the problem of 2 From the original sample we perform a cleaning related to the variables we use to calculate TFP. In particular, we drop observations with a negative value in capital, value added and labour. After estimating TFP we drop observations with a TFP growth rate above and below the 99 and 1% of the TFP growth distribution, respectively. Further, we also drop observations with a TFP in levels above and below the 99.75% and 0.25%, respectively. 5 endogeneity of the non-dynamic inputs (that is, the variable factors); and, the second equation deals with the issue of the law of motion of productivity. We start considering first the problem of endogeneity of the non-dynamic inputs. Correlation between labour and productivity complicates the estimation of equation (2), because it makes the OLS estimator biased and the fixed-effects and instrumental variables methods generally unreliable (Ackerberg et al., 2007). Both OP and LP’s methods use a control function approach to solve this problem, by using investment in capital and materials, respectively, to proxy for “unobserved” firm productivity. In particular, the OP method assumes that the demand for investment in capital, i = i(k iptc ,ω iptc ) , is a function of firms’ capital and productivity. To circumvent the iptc problem of firms with zero investment in capital, the LP’s method uses the demand for materials (intermediate inputs), miptc = m(k iptc ,ω iptc ) , instead, as a proxy variable to recover ‘unobserved’ firm’s productivity. We follow this last approach. As the demand of intermediate materials is assumed to be monotonic in productivity, it can be inverted to generate the inverse demand function for materials and, therefore, the productivity. Wooldridge (2009) proposes to estimate jointly a system of two equations by GMM using the appropriate instruments and moment conditions for each equation. Ackerberg et al. (2006) showed that there exists an identification problem in the first step estimation of the coefficients of variable inputs (affecting the labour input) in OP and LP methods that rely on a two-step estimation procedure, and derived a mixture of OP and LP’s approaches to solve the problem. However, theirs is still a two-step estimation procedure. More recently, Wooldridge (2009) has argued that both OP and LP’s estimation methods can be reconsidered as consisting of two equations which can be jointly estimated by GMM in a one-step procedure. This joint estimation strategy of equations has the following advantages: i) it increases efficiency relatively to two-step procedures; ii) it makes unnecessary bootstrapping for the calculus of standard errors; and, iii) it solves the aforementioned identification problem. After estimating the production function we obtain estimates of firms’ TFP using the following expression: 6 ω = y iptc − β̂Lp liptc − β̂Kpk iptc ! iptc (3) where ω iptc is the estimate of the log TFP for firm i belonging to industry p in period t and country c. We use time constant and sector-specific coefficients for labour and capital that are common across all countries to facilitate both international and over time comparability of the resulting productivity levels. The data we analyse correspond to the period 2003 to 2014. The coverage of EU member states is subject to data availability in AMADEUS. Thus, in the case of Cyprus and Lithuania, there is no information in the sample. Luxembourg, Malta, and Latvia are excluded from our sample due to insufficient observations. Thus, our data cover 23 EU Member States. The industry classification is based on NACE Rev. 2, limited to the market sectors and excluding agricultural, mining, real estate and financial sectors.3 These sectors are more prone to issues in accurately measuring output and they are more affected by lack of information. As for the financial sector, since AMADEUS does not generally include banks, the coverage would not be representative of this sector at the European level. 3. Descriptive analysis of EU frontier firms. There is a renew interest in understanding the factors behind productivity growth and in particular the drivers of productivity convergence among EU countries. There are two main perspectives in the study of catching-up mechanisms to the frontier: the macroeconomic and the microeconomic approach. In the former, the unit of analysis is either the country or the region (Barro and Sala-i-Martín, 1992) and the objective is to identify the frontier at the country or region level, and to test whether productivity growth in other territories is related to the existing gap to the frontier (see Sala-i-Martí, 1996; Griffith et al., 2004a; Acemoglu et al., 2006; Kneller and Stevens, 2006; Aghion et al., 2008; Amable et al., 2010, among others). Under this approach, it is assumed that all firms in a given region catchup and converge towards the frontier, disregarding heterogeneity across firms and ignoring the fact that growth may be influenced by mechanisms of selection and reallocation, as well as uncertainty (Jovanovic, 1982; Melitz, 2003). 3 See Table A.1 in the Appendix for a classification of the industries used. 7 The microeconomics approach, instead, aims at overcoming some of these limitations, and in particular the heterogeneity across firms (Griffith et al., 2004b; Acemoglu et al., 2007; Alvarez and Crespi, 2007; Bartelsman et al., 2008; Bartelsman et al., 2015, Andrews et al., 2015; Ding et al., 2016). The unit of analysis is the firm, and it is based on the identification of a best-practice frontier firm (or group of firms) reflecting the most advanced technology within an industry and country (or groups of countries). Although some micro studies based on a single country are able to address the issue of firm-level heterogeneity, and they are potentially helpful in understanding whether catching up differ across types of firms, they may not be able to correctly identify the ‘true’ frontier, which in many industries may depend upon firms operating in neighbouring countries. In light of these considerations, micro data for all (potentially relevant) countries within a given geographical area or development level is useful in identifying the “global” frontier, which may differ from the national frontier firms. The scarce literature using firm-level data in a multi-country analysis uses a small number of countries to identify the global frontier firms. For example, Bartelsman et al. (2008) focus on the United States and five European economies. Iacovone and Crespi (2010) and Van der Wiel et al. (2008) analyse Mexico and The Netherlands, respectively, and use the data from Bartelsman et al. (2008) to identify the global frontier. However, a small sample of countries casts doubts about the correct identification of the global frontier. An exception to these studies is the work of Andrews et al. (2015), who analyse the global frontier considering a sample of 23 OECD countries. In this paper we rely on the microeconomics approach in order to derive the “EU frontier firms” considering the EU as a well-defined area to be analysed. Following Andrews et al. (2015), for measuring the productivity frontier we use an absolute number of firms within each industry, calculated as the 5% of the median number of firms (across years).4 Frontier firms are identified using the top We calculate the median number of firms across years for each industry, and the 5% of this median is the number of firms that we keep constant across years for each industry, and use this number to calculate the frontier with the most productive firms. 4 8 5% globally most productive firms at the EU level (within each industry and year).5 Once the EU frontier firms have been identified, we first characterize the EU frontier firms, analyse its composition by country of origin and then, examine firms’ persistence in the EU frontier. 3.1. A characterization of the EU frontier firms. To analyse the EU frontier firms we describe cross-sectional differences in key characteristics between EU frontier and non-frontier firms along a number of measurable dimensions. This part of the analysis is purely descriptive. The main dimensions considered include: TFP (measured as described in section 2), age, employment, value added, capital intensity, earnings, 6 profits and wages per employee. A test of difference in means over these dimensions determines the extent to which EU frontier firms differ significantly from non-frontier firms. Table 1 reports differences in average characteristics at aggregate level for the EU frontier firms, as defined above, relative to non-frontier firms along a number of firm characteristics over the period 2003 to 2014. In addition, this table provides cross-sectional differences in average characteristics for the years 2006 (pre-crisis) and 2013 (post-crisis), respectively. Table 1 also shows these differences over the total period by the three aggregate groups of industries: manufacturing, non-financial market services and other production industries.7 In all cases the differences in means between frontier and non-frontier firms are based on the classification according to the TFP productivity measure. [Insert Table 1 around here] 5 An alternative approach to define the productivity frontier is to take the top 100 most productive firms within each industry and year. However, the tendency for the number of firms in AMADEUS to expand over time suggests the adoption of a definition of frontiers based on a fixed number of firms. As a robustness check we have also used the top 100 most productive firms and the results are qualitatively similar. 6 Earnings are measured by EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization). 7 The industry classification is based on NACE Rev. 2, limited to the market non-farm/agricultural non-financial sectors (that is, excluding industries A, B, and O to P due to the lack of information). See the Appendix for a classification of industries. 9 Over the period 2003 to 2014, firms at the EU frontier are on average four times more productive than non-frontier firms, indicating that the TFP gap between frontier and non-frontier-firms is considerable and therefore suggesting that the potential for catching up growth in TFP remains huge.8 In addition, EU frontier firms are on average older,9 larger, more capital intensive, have higher value added, earnings and profits, and pay higher wages per employee than nonfrontier firms (this characterisations is also obtained by Andrews et al. 2016 for the global frontier firms using a sample of 24 OECD countries). This features also hold when we look ant manufacturing, non-financial services and other production industries. Comparing the reported statistics for the year 2006 (pre-crisis) and the year 2013 (post-crisis), we observe that there is a reduction in the average TFP of both frontier and non-frontier firms. Also from 2006 to 2013 both frontier and nongexperience a reduction in value added, earnings and profits. Finally, frontier firms increased in size, as measured by number of employees, and decreased its wages per employee. 3.2. The EU frontier composition by country of origin. Table 2 shows the percentage of firms in the EU frontier corresponding to each country in the European Union in the two selected years (2006, 2013). The information is provided separately for manufacturing, non-financial market services and other production, but also for the total of these sectors. By looking at the country composition of the EU frontier for all sectors, we observe that those countries with higher participation are Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Spain, Sweden and Belgium. We also observe that from 2006 to 8 Note that TFP is measured in logs, therefore, relative to non-frontier firms, frontier firms are on average exp 1,4=4 times more productive. 9 Although the significant difference in age is lost over time. 10 2013,10 countries that increase their presence in the EU frontier are France, Italy, Sweden and Belgium. The other three countries decrease their presence. By sectors, the same countries appear as leaders in the frontier in manufacturing and non-financial market services. The main differences are that the participation of Germany and Belgium in non-financial market services, although relevant, decreases over time. In other production, Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain and Sweden have a notable presence in the frontier, and from 2006 to 1013 Germany and Sweden increase their presence and Belgium decreases its presence in the frontier. [Insert Table 2 around here] 3.3. Persistence of EU frontier and non-frontier firms. To analyse firms’ persistence in the EU frontier, we report in Tables 3 to 6 the percentage of firms remaining at the frontier, and the percentage lagging behind the frontier, after one, two and five years, respectively. We report the results for all sectors and for manufacturing, non-financial market services and other production. The information in these tables corresponds to three different samples. Sample 1 follows firms (frontier and non-frontier) from 2003 onwards. Sample 2, follows firms (frontier and non-frontier) from 2006 onwards and therefore minimizes the coverage problems of Sample 1 regarding several countries before the year 2006.11 Finally, Sample 3 follows firms (frontier and non-frontier) from 2006 onwards but restricting the sample to a balanced panel of firms that remain in AMADEUS from 2006 to 2013. As compared to Samples 1 and 2, Sample 3 eliminates the effect of firms’ exit from AMADEUS in the computation of persistence. The purpose of examining these three samples is to provide a robustness check as regards the analysis of firms’ persistence. [Insert Table 3 around here] 10 For several countries, there is a relevant drop in observations and coverage in AMADEUS from the year 2013 to 2014. For this reason, and following Andrews et al. (2015), we present information for 2013, although data corresponding to 2014 are included in the estimations. 11 In particular, Austria, Denmanrk and Ireland show a low number of observations in the earlier years of the period analysed. 11 Table 3 reports firms’ persistence in the EU frontier. We observe that the percentage of firms that manage to remain at the EU frontier after one year ranges from 40.35% (in Sample 1) to 50.12% (in Sample 2), to 66.14% (in Sample 3). In Sample 3, results indicate that 41.36% of firms remain at the EU frontier after five years. In general, persistence is higher among frontier firms in manufacturing than among firms in non-financial market services (this result is similar in the three samples and it is also obtained by Andrews et al., 2015, using the OECD-ORBIS productivity database from Gal, 2013; these authors analyse manufacturing and non-financial market services, but do not consider other production).12 [Insert Table 4 around here] Table 4 reports persistence in the EU non-frontier. The percentage of firms that remain at the EU non-frontier after one year is 97.07% (according to Sample 3), and after five years is 80.94%. By sectors and regarding non-frontier firms, in general, the intermediate level of persistence is for firms in other production (independently of the sample). For the balanced sample (Sample 3) the higher persistence in this status is for firms in non-financial services. However, for Samples 1 and 2 it is for firms in manufacturing. In Tables 5 and 6 we analyse persistence in the frontier and in the non-frontier, respectively, at a more disaggregated industry level and using Sample 3. Results in Table 5 indicate that the sectors that show high persistence in the frontier status after five years in manufacturing industries are manufacturing of textiles, wearing apparel, leather; manufacturing of wood, paper and printing; manufacturing of coke and refined petroleum products; manufacturing of chemicals and chemical products; manufacturing of pharmaceutical products; and manufacturing of electrical equipment. In the case of services, a high rate of persistence is obtained for transport and storage; postal and courier activities; publishing, motion picture, video and television; and telecommunications. As 12 Andrews et al. (2015), using a Solow-residual based total factor productivity measure, find that around half of the firms manage to remain at the global frontier from one year to the next, and after five years, less than 20% of firms are still there. These results are quite similar to the ones we obtain for persistence at the EU in our Samples 1 and 2. In Sample 3, persistence is higher due to the fact that balancing the sample we avoid the effects of attrition in the AMADEUS database when calculating the percentage of firms staying in the frontier after several years. 12 regards other production, higher persistence is observed for utilities and lower persistence for construction (very low persistence after five years). [Insert Table 5 around here] [Insert Table 6 around here] Results in Table 6 regarding persistence in the non-frontier status, indicate that, in manufacturing, the industries with high persistence are: manufacturing of food, beverages and tobacco; manufacturing of chemicals and chemical products; manufacturing of rubber, plastic and non-metallic products; manufacturing of computer, electronic and optical; manufacturing of electrical equipment; manufacturing of machinery and equipment; and manufacturing of furniture, jewellery, and musical products. In non financial market services, higher persistence in the non-frontier status is found for wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles; computer programming, consultancy; and professional, scientific and technical activities. Finally, in other production this applies for electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply. Another proxy for persistence in the frontier (non-frontier) status is the average number of years a firm remains at the frontier (away from the frontier). We have calculated these mean values for frontier (non-frontier) firms during the period 2003-2014, using only information on firms belonging to the balanced sample from 2006 to 2013. We find that those firms at the frontier (for at least one year) remain there for around 30% of the years analysed, and the mean number of years they remain there is around 3. Furthermore, we find that non-frontier firms (for at least one year) remain at the non-frontier status around 98% of the years analysed, and the mean number of years they remain there is around 10.5. 4. Determinants of the distance to the frontier. We now analyse the factors determining the distance-to-frontier of laggard firms. With this aim, we test how firms’ characteristics and country’ economic and institutional features may influence a firm’s TFP relative position to the frontier. As stated earlier, frontier firms are identified using the top 5% globally most 13 productive firms at the EU level (within each industry and year).13 We estimate a model with the distance to the frontier (or technology gap) on the left hand side and firms’ and country’ characteristics and other controls (such as industry, country and year dummies) on the right hand side, as follows: ln TFPicpt TFPptF = α + β 'Z icpt + δ ' X ct + γ p + γ c + γ t + ε icpt (4) where subscript i denotes firm, subscript c country, subscript p a particular industry and t the time period. The distance to the frontier of a particular laggard firm is calculated as the log of the ratio of its own TFP over the average TFP of the frontier firms belonging to the same industry and for each particular year. Firms’ characteristics are captured by Zicjt (including size –measured by the number of employees–, age, capital and wage per employee –as a measure for skilled labour).14 Xct is a vector of variables capturing economic and institutional characteristics at the country-year level. Among these variables we include a measure of human capital at the country level, which is the percentage of 15-64 years old population with Tertiary Education, drawn from Eurostat. We expect this variable to be related to the ability to absorb ideas and knowledge from the technological frontier and, then, to have a positive impact on the technological catching up of laggards. We also include a measure of Trade Openness (calculated as the ratio of the sum of imports plus exports over GDP) from the World Development Indicators. According to Melitz (2003), exposure to trade is an important driver contributing to a better resource allocation, thereby affecting within-firm productivity dispersion. It has been documented that more exposure to trade implies selection of the most productive firms into the export markets and market share reallocation by the exit of less efficient firms (Amiti and Konings, 2007, Fernandes, 2007). 13 Alternatively, we also used the definition of frontiers as the 100 top most productive firms for EU industry-year frontiers, which provides very similar results. These results are not presented in the paper but can be obtained from the authors upon request. 14 We use wages as a proxy for skills at the firm level. Although we acknowledge this is far from perfect, this is the best available measure in the AMADEUS database for this purpose. We are also aware of papers that use information on wages to control for differences in the quality of the workforce (Gopinath et al., 2015). 14 In addition, from the World Bank's dataset Doing Business we use an indicator capturing the distance to frontier (DTF) between a particular country’s performance and the world’ best practice regarding the ease in getting credit (DTF getting credit). This indicator tries to capture two types of related issues: the strength of credit reporting systems and the effectiveness of collateral and bankruptcy laws in facilitating lending.15 By construction, higher values of this indicator implies greater ease in conducting business, thereby we expect this variable to positively affect TFP growth. Finally, from the Worldwide Governance Indicators we use different indicators in order to obtain a summary measure of the Governance Quality: Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law, and Control of Corruption. Government effectiveness captures perceptions of the quality of public services, the quality of the civil service and the degree of its independence from political pressures, the quality of policy formulation and implementation, and the credibility of the government's commitment to such policies. Regulatory Quality reflects the perceptions of the ability of the government to formulate and implement sound policies and regulations that allow and promote private sector development. The indicator Rule of Law captures the perceptions of the extent to which agents have confidence in and abide by the rules of society, and in particular the quality of contract enforcement, property rights, the police, and the courts, as well as the likelihood of crime and violence. Finally, Control of Corruption captures perceptions of the extent to which public power is exercised for private gain, including both minor and grand forms of corruption, as well as "capture" of the state by elites and private interests. Given the high correlation among these four variables, we apply factor analysis to obtain a synthetic measure, Governance Quality, which is a weighted sum of the original indicators. The estimation results obtained by linear regression are presented in Table 7. All standard errors are calculated as robust standard errors clustered by firm. All regressions are run only with non-frontier firm distances. Results were similar when also including frontier firms in the regressions, in which case the 15 In particular, this indicator measures two types of institutions and systems that may facilitate access to finance and improve its allocation: (i) Legal rights of borrowers and lenders in secured transactions and bankruptcy laws. (ii) Coverage, scope and quality of credit information available through credit registries and bureaus. 15 corresponding log value for the dependent variable was set to zero. Coefficient estimates for the regressors at the firm-level have the interpretation of elasticities since both the dependent variable and firm-level regressors are in log form. [Insert Table 7 around here] In Column (1) of Table 7 we estimate the regression in expression (4) above. Regarding firms’ characteristics, we find that larger and more skilled-labour firms decrease the distance to the frontier. For instance, a one per cent increase in size (as measured by the number of employees) reduces the distance to the frontier by 0.18 per cent, and a one per cent increase in capital intensity reduces the distance to the frontier by 0.026 per cent. In addition, older firms increase the distance to the frontier.16 As regards to country-level economic and institutional factors, we find that they play an important role as determinants of firms’ distance to the TFP frontier. In particular, we obtain that higher tertiary education, trade openness, easiness in getting credit, and quality of governance significantly affect the technological catching up of laggards to the frontier. These results are in line with existing literature. For instance, Iacovone and Crespi (2010) provide evidence on the role of trade openness in the catching up of laggards towards the frontier. Arnold et al. (2001) document how product market regulations that restrain competitive pressure negatively affect firms’ productivity, implying that a weak market and institutional framework may impose a burden on productivity growth of firms. In Column (2) we include the same regressors and controls than in Column (1), but we also interact the regressors with a dummy variable taking value 1 for the recession years (2008-2014). Hence, the estimates for non-interacted regressors in this column correspond to the reference category, pre-crisis years (2003-2007). In general, we obtain the same patterns than in Column (1) for pre-crisis years. For post-crisis years, results indicate that larger, more capital intensive and more labor skilled firms decrease the distance to the frontier (but in a weaker magnitude to that in the pre-crisis period). Also older firms increase the distance to the frontier (but in a weaker magnitude to that in the pre-crisis period). In 16 This result is in line with Conway et al. (2015) for New Zealand, who estimate a logistic regression of frontier versus laggard firms within industries and find that frontier firms are more likely to be younger. 16 addition, regarding country-level economic and institutional factors, we find that they also play an important role in reducing firms’ distance to the TFP frontier during the post-crisis period, although their effect is weaker for tertiary education trade openness and easiness in getting credit, and stronger for governance quality. Finally, in Column (3), we consider the importance of distinguishing among sectors, taking also into account the role of the cycle as a moderating factor of the impact of the different determinants. 17 We interact all the regressors of Column (1) both with dummies of pre-crisis and post-crisis years, and also with dummies corresponding to three industrial sectors: manufacturing, non-financial market services, and other production. Hence, in this final column, coefficients have a direct interpretation and do not need to be interpreted with regards to reference categories. Starting with firms’ characteristics, we find that size is an important factor in reducing firms’ distance to the frontier in all sectors, and the role of firms’ size in both periods is significantly different, being more important during the recession years. As regards to firms’ age, we obtain that older firms increase their distance to the frontier in all sectors, and the role of firms’ age in both periods is statistically different, being more important during the recession years for manufacturing and other production, and more important for the precrisis period in services. In addition, we find that capital intensity is an important factor in reducing firms’ distance to the frontier in all sectors, and its impact in both periods is significantly different, being more important during the pre-crisis years in all sectors. Finally, our results show that firms with higher wages per employee are significantly closer to the frontier. The different effect in pre-crisis and post-crisis years is also statistically significant for the three sector groups, being more relevant during the pre-crisis years in all sectors. Regarding economic and institutional characteristics at the country level, our findings suggest that they play a relevant role in reducing firms’ productivity gaps. Tertiary education reduces firms’ distance to the frontier in all sectors and in both periods, being more relevant during the pre-crisis period. Trade openness is also 17 To properly assess the moderating role of the cycle, we perform tests on the equality of coefficients for each variable in the two dummy periods, pre-crisis and post-crisis, rejecting the null that they are equal at the one per cent level of significance. 17 an important factor in the productivity catching-up in all sectors and in its relevance is similar in both periods. The easiness in getting credit has also a positive effect in reducing the distance of laggards to the frontier, especially in non-financial services during the recession years. Finally, we obtain mixed results for the measure capturing the quality of governance, which increases firms’ distance to the frontier in manufacturing and non-financial services during the pre-crisis years, but decreases firms’ distance to the frontier in all sectors during the recession years, being the effect significantly different in both periods. In summary, our findings suggest that firms’ size, capital intensity and human capital are important drivers in explaining the catching up process towards the frontier, whereas age seem to be negatively related to the convergence to the frontier. At the country level, trade openness, tertiary education, the easiness of getting credit and governance quality all play a positive role in reducing firms’ distance to frontier. In addition, our results indicate that it is important to consider the heterogeneity among industries when analysing the determinants of the distance to the TFP frontier, and also the moderating role of the business cycle. In the case of manufacturing firms and firms in other production, we find that, in general, firms’ determinants of the distance to the frontier are particularly relevant during the post-crisis period (except for capital intensity, that seems to be more important during the pre-crisis years). Regarding firms in non-financial market services, the role of the cycle is more mixed: age and capital are more relevant during the pre-crisis, but age and wages per employee seem to be stronger during the recession period. Finally, regarding country-level factors and the role of the cycle by sectors, the results on their impact are more mixed: both in manufacturing and in non-financial services, tertiary education is more relevant in pre-crisis and governance quality during recession; as for trade openness, their relevance is similar in both periods in manufacturing and non-financial services, and, finally, the easiness of getting credit seems to be more relevant for nonfinancial services during the recession. 5. Summary of results and concluding remarks 18 In this paper we analyse the determinants of within-industry distance to the TFP frontier across EU economies. We first provide a description of the characteristics of the best performing firms in terms of productivity, that is, the frontier firms, in comparison with the non-frontier firms. We further analyse the determinants of firms’ TFP gap between frontier and non-frontier firms, including factors at the firm and country levels. The analysis of the determinants of the TFP gap between frontier and non-frontier firms within industries shows that, in general, larger, more capital intensive and more labour skilled firms are closer to the frontier. In contrast, older firms are further away from the frontier. At the country level, trade openness, tertiary education, the easiness of getting credit and governance quality all play a positive role in reducing firms’ distance to frontier. In addition, our results indicate that it is important to consider the heterogeneity among industries when analysing the determinants of the distance to the TFP frontier, and also the moderating role of the business cycle. Although is very difficult to provide a well-targeted policy advice, our findings suggest a number of implications. First, given the characteristics of firms at the technological frontier, it seems advisable to pursue active policies promoting size, labour quality and capital intensity at the firm level. Macroeconomic policies towards more educated workforce and trade openness, by helping at absorbing advanced technologies and a better reallocation of resources, may also serve to enhance the technological catching up of laggards towards the frontier. 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Non financial market services Wholesale and retail trade of motor vehicles Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles Retail trade, except of motor vehicles Transport and storage Postal and courier activities Accommodation and food service activities Publishing, motion picture, video, television Telecommunications Computer programming, consultancy Professional, scientific and technic. activities Other production Electricity, gas, steam and air cond. supply Water suppl.; sewerage, waste management Construction 22 Table 1. Means and differences in means of firm characteristics: EU frontier firms vs. non-frontier firms. TFP NF F Age NF F Employment NF F Value Added NF F Capital intensity NF F Earnings NF F Profits NF F Wage p.e. NF F Average 2003-2014 4.4 5.8*** 24.1 31.9 *** 107.5 857.3 *** 4422 70157 *** 43.7 122.6 *** 1230 29023 *** 338 14149 *** 30.9 57.6 *** Pre-crisis: 2006 4.4 5.8*** 23.4 30.5 *** 109.7 789.4 *** 4558 66895 *** 39.4 120.8 *** 1265 28629 *** 381 14366 *** 31.1 65.2 *** Post-crisis: 2013 4.3 5.7*** 26.6 34.9 *** 105.2 855.8 *** 4383 67638 *** 49.4 130.7 *** 1141 27258 *** 307 13431 *** 31.8 59.7 *** Manufacturing 4.3 5.6*** 25.7 36.2 *** 107.0 662.6 *** 4639 66638 *** 43.6 82.8 *** 1402 27160 *** 376 13232 *** 30.2 54.5 *** Non financial market services 4.5 5.5*** 22.9 28.5 *** 89.9 499.2 *** 4463 66950 *** 62.8 253.8 *** 1490 32965 *** 420 15992 *** 33.5 58.1 *** Other production industries 4.5 6.0*** 22.9 28.9 *** 113.1 1134.4 *** 4210 74267 *** 38.5 123.1 *** 997 29652 *** 279 14482 *** 30.7 60.5 *** By sectors: Average 2003-2014 Note: EU frontier corresponds to the average of the top 5% EU most productive firms in each year and industry. F is the average of frontier firms; NF is the average of non-frontier (all other) firms. TFP is measured in logs, employment by the number of employees. Value added, capital, earnings, profits and wages measured in thousands of euros. Earnings are measured by EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization). Test in mean differences with *** significant at 1%, ** significant at 5%, and * significant at 10%. Table 2. Percentage of firms in the EU frontier by country origin in selected years. Total Country Manufacturing Nonfinancial Market Services Other Production 2006 2013 2006 2013 2006 2013 2006 2013 Austria 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 Belgium 5.6 6.5 5.5 8.5 6.7 5.3 2.0 1.3 Bulgaria 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.0 1.0 Croatia 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 C Republic 2.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 2.5 1.4 6.3 2.3 Denmark 0.0 2.7 0.0 1.6 0.0 4.6 0.0 1.3 Estonia 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 Finland 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.9 1.4 0.3 0.3 France 16.2 17.0 13.7 13.8 19.3 21.9 16.3 14.3 Germany 18.6 12.7 25.0 17.3 12.3 6.5 11.7 13.3 Greece 0.9 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.0 Hungary 0.3 1.2 0.6 1.1 0.1 1.1 0.0 1.7 Ireland 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.3 Italy 9.8 13.0 14.7 19.4 4.0 5.8 8.0 9.3 Netherlands 1.6 1.4 2.0 2.0 1.3 0.7 1.0 1.0 Poland 1.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 2.4 0.3 3.7 2.0 Portugal 2.0 1.7 1.2 1.7 2.8 1.7 3.0 1.7 Romania 0.8 1.4 0.8 0.8 0.5 1.8 2.0 2.7 Slovakia 3.3 1.0 2.6 0.6 4.9 1.5 0.7 1.0 Slovenia 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 Spain 13.5 12.0 11.7 10.8 12.6 11.3 24.0 19.0 Sweden 5.3 9.0 3.8 5.8 7.5 12.7 4.3 10.3 UK 16.0 15.0 14.1 11.9 18.7 18.6 15.7 16.7 Notes: EU frontier firms are the top 5% most productive firms in each year and industry at the EU level. Denmark has no coverage in AMADEUS for the year 2006 in the sample used for TFP measurement. Cyprus and Lithuania are not covered by AMADEUS for the period analysed. Latvia, Luxembourg and Malta have not been considered because of insufficient observations in the database. Table 3. Persistence in the EU frontier. Industry Total Manufacturing Services Other Production Percentage of firms staying in the frontier after several years Sample 1 Sample 2 Sample 3 Number of years Number of years Number of years 1 2 5 1 2 5 1 2 5 40.35% 42.31% 36.40% 45.00% 23.12% 24.00% 20.70% 27.33% 9.31% 10.46% 7.60% 10.00% 50.12% 52.77% 46.70% 50.00% 34.42% 37.31% 30.90% 33.67% 17.38% 20.23% 13.60% 17.67% 66.14% 65.70% 66.10% 68.89% 54.32% 55.23% 50.00% 60.00% 41.36% 41.88% 35.59% 53.33% Notes: EU frontier firms are the top 5% most productive firms in each year and industry at the EU level. Sample 1 follows frontier firms from 2003 onwards. Sample 2 follows frontier firms from 2006 onwards. Finally, Sample 3 follows frontier firms from 2006 onwards but restricting the sample to a balanced panel of firms that stay in AMADEUS database from 2006 to 2013. Table 4. Persistence in the non-EU frontier. Industry Total Manufacturing Services Other Production Percentage of firms staying away from the frontier after several years Sample 1 Sample 2 Sample 3 Number of years Number of years Number of years 1 2 5 1 2 5 1 2 5 83.53% 84.17% 82.61% 85.07% 64.76% 65.86% 64.02% 64.59% 49.04% 51.90% 47.08% 48.76% 88.97% 90.95% 87.48% 88.89% 76.65% 78.62% 75.08% 76.84% 60.12% 63.45% 58.08% 58.40% 97.07% 97.14% 96.93% 97.35% 89.95% 88.98% 90.70% 90.09% 80.94% 79.38% 82.39% 80.33% Notes: Non-EU Frontier are all firms below the top 5% most productive firms in each year and industry at the EU level. Sample 1 follows non-frontier firms from 2003 onwards. Sample 2 follows non-frontier firms from 2006 onwards. Finally, Sample 3 follows nonfrontier firms from 2006 onwards but restricting the sample to a balanced panel of firms that stay in AMADEUS database from 2006 to 2013. 25 Table 5. Persistence in the EU Frontier (balanced sample). Percentage of firms staying in the frontier after several years Industry Total Manufacturing Manuf. of food, beverages and tobacco Manuf. of textiles, wearing apparel, leather Manuf. of wood, paper, printing Manuf. of coke and refined petroleum prod. Manuf. of chemicals and chemical prod. Manuf. of pharmaceutical products Manuf. of rubber, plastic and non-metallic Manuf. of basic and fabricated metal prod. Manuf. of computer, electronic and optical Manuf. of electrical equipment Manuf. of machinery and equipment n.e.c. Manuf. of motor vehicles, trailers Manuf. of furniture; jewellery, musical prod. Non financial market services Wholesale and retail trade of motor vehicles Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles Retail trade, except of motor vehicles Transport and storage Postal and courier activities Accommodation and food service activities Publishing, motion picture, video, television Telecommunications Computer programming, consultancy Professional, scientific and technic. activities Other production Electricity, gas, steam and air cond. supply Water suppl.; sewerage, waste management Construction Number of years 1 2 5 66.14% 54.32% 41.36% 68.42% 57.89% 52.94% 92.86% 71.43% 72.41% 50.00% 48.00% 80.00% 78.57% 50.00% 35.71% 61.11% 52.63% 47.37% 52.94% 89.29% 64.29% 62.07% 55.00% 36.00% 45.00% 64.29% 50.00% 21.43% 44.44% 31.58% 47.37% 64.71% 60.71% 46.43% 62.07% 20.00% 36.00% 25.00% 42.86% 25.00% 14.29% 38.89% 93.33% 50.00% 43.75% 78.57% 81.25% 61.54% 58.33% 71.43% 42.86% 33.33% 60.00% 37.50% 25.00% 50.00% 75.00% 53.85% 50.00% 57.14% 42.86% 0.00% 20.00% 25.00% 25.00% 50.00% 43.75% 30.77% 58.33% 50.00% 14.29% 0.00% 72.41% 72.73% 40.00% 68.97% 63.64% 0.00% 62.07% 54.55% 0.00% Notes: EU frontier firms are the top 5% most productive firms in each year and industry at the EU level. Balanced sample corresponds to Sample 3, which follows frontier firms from 2006 onwards but restricting the sample to a balanced panel of firms staying in AMADEUS database from 2006 to 2013. 26 Table 6: Persistence in the non-EU Frontier (balanced sample). Percentage of firms staying away from the frontier after several years Industry Total Manufacturing Manuf. of food, beverages and tobacco Manuf. of textiles, wearing apparel, leather Manuf. of wood, paper, printing Manuf. of coke and refined petroleum prod. Manuf. of chemicals and chemical prod. Manuf. of pharmaceutical products Manuf. of rubber, plastic and non-metallic Manuf. of basic and fabricated metal prod. Manuf. of computer, electronic and optical Manuf. of electrical equipment Manuf. of machinery and equipment n.e.c. Manuf. of motor vehicles, trailers Manuf. of furniture; jewelry, musical prod. Non financial market services Wholesale and retail trade of motor vehicles Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles Retail trade, except of motor vehicles Transport and storage Postal and courier activities Accommodation and food service activities Publishing, motion picture, video, television Telecommunications Computer programming, consultancy Professional, scientific and tech. activities Other production Electricity, gas, steam and air cond. supply Water suppl.; sewerage, waste management Construction Number of years 1 2 5 97.07% 89.95% 80.94% 96.78% 96.66% 97.01% 85.71% 95.68% 95.74% 97.32% 97.36% 97.48% 96.93% 96.58% 97.44% 98.67% 89.82% 87.80% 88.31% 57.14% 89.46% 87.23% 89.71% 87.93% 89.92% 87.29% 86.97% 89.74% 92.49% 80.89% 73.43% 77.43% 0.00% 82.97% 75.00% 79.97% 77.50% 80.81% 80.45% 79.42% 78.92% 84.09% 96.63% 97.51% 97.19% 96.22% 72.22% 96.44% 96.28% 93.33% 96.83% 97.15% 90.89% 91.82% 90.69% 89.57% 50.00% 90.03% 87.59% 85.00% 91.11% 90.68% 82.46% 84.67% 82.46% 79.43% 50.00% 80.29% 75.93% 70.83% 82.86% 83.22% 97.46% 95.39% 97.62% 91.88% 85.12% 90.64% 87.06% 75.60% 80.44% Notes: Non-EU frontier firms are all firms below the top 5% most productive firms in each year and industry at the EU level. Balanced sample corresponds to Sample 3, which follows non-frontier firms from 2006 onwards but restricting the sample to a balanced panel of firms staying in AMADEUS database from 2006 to 2013. 27 Table 7. Distance to the EU Frontier Dep. Variable: ln TFPicjt TFPjtF Size Size 2008-2014 Size Manuf. 2003-07 Size Manuf. 2008-14 Size Serv. 2003-07 Size Serv. 2008-14 Size Other 2003-07 Size Other 2008-14 Age Age 2008-2014 Age Manuf. 2003-07 Age Manuf. 2008-14 Age Serv. 2003-07 Age Serv. 2008-14 Age Other 2003-07 Age Other 2008-14 Capital Capital 2008-2014 Capital Manuf. 2003-07 Capital Manuf. 2008-14 Capital Serv. 2003-07 Capital Serv. 2008-14 Capital Other 2003-07 Capital Other 2008-14 Wage per employee Wage per employee 2008-2014 Wage per empl. Manuf. 2003-07 Wage per empl. Manuf. 2008-14 Wage per empl. Serv. 2003-07 Wage per empl. Serv. 2008-14 Wage per empl. Other 2003-07 Wage per empl. Other 2008-14 Tertiary education Tertiary education 2008-2014 Tertiary educ. Manuf. 2003-07 Tertiary educ. Manuf. 2008-14 Tertiary educ. Serv. 2003-07 Tertiary educ. Serv. 2008-14 Tertiary educ. Other 2003-07 Tertiary educ. Other 2008-14 Trade openness Trade openness 2008-2014 Trade open. Manuf. 2003-07 Trade open. Manuf. 2008-14 Trade open. Serv. 2003-07 Trade open. Serv. 2008-14 Trade open. Other 2003-07 Trade open. Other 2008-14 DTF Getting credit DTF Getting credit 2008-2014 DTF Get. Cre. Manuf. 2003-07 DTF Get. Cre. Manuf. 2008-14 DTF Get. Cre. Serv. 2003-07 DTF Get. Cre. Serv. 2008-14 DTF Get. Cre. Other 2003-07 (1) 0.182*** -0.009*** 0.026*** 0.848*** 0.013*** 0.001*** 0.002*** - (2) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.003) (0.001) (0.000) (0.000) 0.152*** 0.044*** -0.007*** -0.003*** 0.041*** -0.022*** 0.826*** -0.036*** 0.016*** -0.005*** 0.001*** 0.000*** 0.001*** 0.000*** - (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.003) (0.003) (0.001) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (3) 0.160*** 0.206*** 0.156*** 0.197*** 0.141*** 0.180*** -0.012*** -0.016*** -0.005*** -0.001*** -0.016*** -0.020*** 0.030*** 0.010*** 0.048*** 0.030*** 0.017*** 0.003*** 0.862*** 0.878*** 0.824*** 0.855*** 0.808*** 0.836*** 0.014*** 0.009*** 0.017*** 0.011*** 0.012*** 0.012*** 0.001*** 0.001*** 0.001*** 0.001*** 0.000*** 0.001*** 0.001*** 0.001*** 0.001*** 0.002*** 0.000*** (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.001) (0.003) (0.003) (0.002) (0.001) (0.002) (0.001) (0.002) (0.003) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.002) (0.002) (0.003) (0.004) (0.004) (0.003) (0.010) (0.012) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) 28 DTF Get. Cre. Other 2008-14 -0.000*** (0.000) Governance quality 0.049*** (0.004) -0.002*** (0.004) Governance q. 2008-2014 0.047*** (0.003) Govern. qual. Manuf. 2003-07 -0.002*** (0.005) Govern. qual. Manuf. 2008-14 0.037*** (0.004) Govern. qual. Serv. 2003-07 -0.034*** (0.005) Govern. qual. Serv. 2008-14 0.031*** (0.004) Govern. qual. Other 2003-07 0.050*** (0.008) Govern. qual. Other 2008-14 0.050*** (0.006) Constant -5.609*** (0.017) -5.603*** (0.019) -5.562*** (0.022) Observations 1,040,504 1,040,504 1,040,504 R-squared 0.771 0.773 0.775 Notes: EU frontier firms are the top 5% most productive firms in each year and industry at the EU level. Size refers to the number of employees. All specifications include industry, country and year dummies. Robust standard errors clustered by firm in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 29
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