Decision analysis
concept note plans
Rationale

Agroforestry interventions promise to deliver many benefits, but
anticipating their impact is difficult

This makes it hard for decision-makers to evaluate options

Data is insufficient for precise assessments, but we may be able to
evaluate many options based on our current state of uncertainty

We propose to use decision analysis methods for evaluating various
agroforestry options

Holistic assessment across multiple ecosystem services, considering
multiple risks
Intervention options

Improved management of walnut forests

Shelterbelts

Agroforestry legislation

Government unit on agroforestry

Incentivize protection of genetic diversity of fruit trees

Prevent land degradation through sustainable watershed
management
Whose problem is it?

Land users, small land use agents (e.g. farmers, pastoralists etc.)

Vulnerable groups

NGOs

Government agencies

Global community (biodiversity, climate change)

Government-private dialogue (in Tajikistan)

National research communities (capacity strengthening)
Which countries?

Could happen everywhere

Tajikistan interested

Ferghana Valley opportunity to work with 4-5 countries, multiple
agroecosystems

Multiple countries!
Current initiatives

GIZ (walnuts in Kyrgyzstan)

GEF – afforestation (Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan)

World Bank

FAO

UNDP: pistachio (?)

Aga Khan Foundation

Maybe in forestry ministries

Juniper and pistachio planting programs in Tajikistan
Next users

Governments

NARS

NGOs

Extension services

Scientific community
Research, development and
implementation partners

Tajik Academy of Agricultural Sciences

Kyrgyzstan:

Uzbekistan:

Kazakhstan:

Turkmenistan:

Agricultural Faculties

University of Central Asia

Central Asia Research Centre in Urumqi (Prof. Zhen Xi)

ICRAF, iamo, ZEF
How do we deliver impact?

Involve targeted next users directly in research

Policy briefs

Documentaries

Social media

Research papers
What donors?

BEAF (BMZ/GIZ)

Nordic climate facility (30th Jan)

Livelihoods fund (15th Feb)

Gates?

…

Flexible proposal, so could be adapted to needs of many donors