Christie Johnson
Importance
• Find correlation
• Indicator for future
– China
Background
• Trade
• China purchase US debt
• Conflict of interest?
Parameters
• Independent: Debt
• Dependent: Conflict
• Selection Problem
– Cause of debt
– Endogeneity
Endogeneity?
“…recessions can provide the spark for
increased probabilities of internal and external
conflict, which in turn raise the probability of
recessions.”
Blomberg, S. Brock and Gregory D. Hess. “The Temporal Links Between Conflict and Economic Activity”. Sage Publications, Inc.:
Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 46, No. 1 (Feb. 2002). Pp. 74-90.
My Postulation
CONFLICT
DEBT
Morrison, Wayne M. “China-U.S. Trade Issues.” Library of Congress Washington DC
Congressional Research Service: 21 Jun 2010.
Data
• UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset
– 1946-2010
– controls
• WDI
• Combine/compare
Why Does This Matter?
• Current conflict
• Predictor of future
– China