Model-based principal field crop estimates,
August 31, 2016
Released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time in The Daily, Tuesday, September 20, 2016
The production of spring wheat and barley at the national level is estimated to be higher in 2016 than in 2015, while
that of soybeans and canola is expected to be relatively unchanged. Production of oats and corn for grain is
expected to decline.
Model-based principal field crop estimates, which provide yield and production estimates for Canada's principal field
crops, are now available. In this release, data for Canada correspond to combined data from Quebec, Ontario,
Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta.
Wheat
At the national level, spring wheat production is estimated to be 20.6 million tonnes in 2016, up 3.9% from 2015,
mainly as a result of a higher estimated average yield across the Prairies. The national average yield is anticipated
to be 49.9 bushels per acre, up 13.4% from 44.0 bushels per acre in 2015. Harvested acreage in 2016 is reported
to have declined 8.3% compared with 2015.
Spring wheat production is expected to increase in Alberta (+13.5%) and Manitoba (+2.6%) in 2016, but to
decrease in Saskatchewan (-2.8%). Average yield in Saskatchewan is anticipated to be up 10.6% compared
with 2015 to 43.3 bushels per acre. However, an anticipated decline (-12.1%) in harvested area is expected to
offset the higher yield anticipated in 2016. In Alberta, average yield is expected to rise 20.7%
from 2015 to 57.0 bushels per acre.
Durum wheat production at the national level is expected to be 7.3 million tonnes in 2016, up 35.7% from 2015.
This increase is due to a 4.4% gain in acreage, combined with a 30.0% rise in expected yield to 44.7 bushels per
acre.
Canola
At the national level, canola production is estimated to be 18.3 million tonnes in 2016, the same level as in 2015, as
a result of an expected increase in average yield combined with an anticipated decline in harvested acreage.
Estimated average yield for 2016 is up 4.2% from 2015 to a record 41.1 bushels per acre. Estimated average yield
is also up compared with the five-year average for Manitoba (+22.9%), Saskatchewan (+16.7%) and Alberta
(+17.5%). Harvested acreage is expected to be down 4.0% to 19.6 million acres in 2016.
Soybeans
At the national level, soybean production is estimated to be virtually unchanged compared with 2015,
totalling 6.0 million tonnes in 2016. Hot and dry growing conditions in Ontario led to an expected 3.0% decrease in
soybean yield to 44.1 bushels per acre in 2016. Production within the province is expected to be down 10.0%
from 2015 to 3.2 million tonnes. However, soybean production in Manitoba is estimated to be up 24.7% compared
with 2015, because of an expected increase in harvested area (+16.3% to 1.6 million acres) and average yield
(+7.3% to 39.7 bushels per acre) in 2016.
Corn for grain
At the national level, corn for grain production is estimated to decrease 2.9% from 2015 to 13.0 million tonnes
in 2016.
The Daily, Tuesday, September 20, 2016
An expected decline in yield and a lower reported harvested acreage in 2016 could lead to decreased production in
Ontario (-4.5% to 8.4 million tonnes) and Quebec (-5.5% to 3.6 million tonnes) compared with 2015. Although
average yield in Manitoba is expected to decline 2.9% from 2015 to 122.8 bushels per acre, production is
anticipated to increase 26.8% to 1.0 million tonnes in 2016, primarily as a result of an expected gain in harvested
acreage (+30.6% to 320,000 acres).
Barley and oats
At the national level, barley production is estimated to increase 4.4% from 2015 to 8.4 million tonnes in 2016,
because of a 5.0% rise in expected average yield to 68.3 bushels per acre.
At the national level, oat production is anticipated to decrease 13.4% from 2015 to 2.9 million tonnes in 2016, as a
result of a 12.5% decline in reported harvested acres to 2.2 million acres. Average yield is expected to edge down
to 84.8 bushels per acre.
Note to readers
Model-based Principal Field Crop Estimates have replaced the September Farm Survey. The estimates are calculated according to a new
and innovative approach developed by Statistics Canada in close partnership with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. These yield
estimates are based on a model that incorporates coarse resolution satellite data from Statistics Canada's Crop Condition Assessment
Program, data from Statistics Canada's field crop reporting series, and agroclimatic data. A methodology report describing the yield
model used at Statistics Canada is available online.
Production estimates are calculated using the model-based yields multiplied by the reported harvested area from the July Farm Survey of
the field crop reporting series.
Percentage changes are calculated based on data available in CANSIM tables 001-0010, 001-0017 and 001-0075.
Available in CANSIM: table 001-0075.
Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 5225.
For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact us
(toll-free 1-800-263-1136; 514-283-8300; [email protected]) or Media
Relations (613-951-4636; [email protected]).
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Component of Statistics Canada catalogue no. 11-001-X