Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis
Boundary conditions for the environmental
assessment of bioenergy systems
Henrik Wenzel, University of Southern Denmark, [email protected]
Thomas Astrup, Technical University of Denmark
Per Christensen, Aalborg University
3rd annual meeting in the CEESA program
Gl. Avernæs, June 2nd – 4th, 2008
Key Assumptions and Boundary Conditions for
Life Cycle Assessment of Bio-energy Systems
Key issue
Framework condition
Trade
International
Energy-food price
correlation
Strong correlation No correlation
National/regional
Fuel market marginal Fossil
Biomass
Energy crops land
marginal
High carbon
Low carbon
Food/feed crops land High carbon
marginal
Low carbon
External market
marginals
Non-fossil
Fossil
Key boundary conditions
Key boundary conditions
Key boundary conditions
Key boundary conditions
Electricity
Fuels
Food/
feed
Key boundary conditions
Import
Electricity
Export
Import
Export
Fuels
Import
Export
Food/
feed
Key boundary conditions
Import
Electricity
Export
Import
Export
Fuels
Import
Export
Food/
feed
Key boundary conditions
1. Scope of trade
2. Energy-food
correlation
3. Fuel marginal
Import
Electricity
Export
Import
Export
Fuels
Import
Export
Food/
feed
4. Land use
marginal
Key boundary conditions
1. Scope of trade
2. Energy-food
correlation
3. Fuel marginal
Import
Electricity
Export
4. Land use
marginal
Import
Export
Fuels
Import
Export
Food/
feed
How does the world look in 50 years?
The scope of trade
High wind
High bio
Import
Export
Import
Electricity
Export
Import
Electricity
Import
Fuels
Fuels
Export
Export
Import
Export
Import
Food/
feed
Export
Food/
feed
International trade on all markets
• High import & export
• International grid, North Sea connection, North-South European connection
• International markets for biomass for energy, biofuels & fossil fuels
• International food/feed markets
The scope of trade
High wind
High bio
Import
Export
Import
Electricity
Export
Import
Electricity
Import
Fuels
Fuels
Export
Export
Import
Export
Import
Food/
feed
National trade on all markets
• No/low import & export
• National market for biomass for energy & biofuels
• National food/feed market (?)
Export
Food/
feed
Energy-food correlation
High wind
High bio
Import
Export
Import
Electricity
Export
Import
Electricity
Import
Fuels
Fuels
Export
Export
Import
Export
Import
Food/
feed
Export
Food/
feed
Energy & food markets highly correlated
• Much land for energy crops throughout the world
• Farmers sell to both markets – at highest price possible
• Increasing demand for energy crops implies increasing cultivation of new land
and/or intensification of yields
Energy-food correlation
High wind
High bio
Import
Export
Import
Electricity
Export
Import
Electricity
Import
Fuels
Fuels
Export
Export
Import
Export
Import
Food/
feed
Export
Food/
feed
Energy & food markets not correlated
• No significant land use for energy crops
• World energy supply in general does not use agricultural land what-so-ever: it’s
either fossil, nuclear, hydro, wave, allows co-use of land for farming (wind mills)
or uses non-fertile land (solar)
• Increasing energy demand does not imply new land cultivation or intensification
Fuel market marginal
- issue only relevant for international markets
High wind
High bio
Import
Export
Import
Electricity
Export
Import
Electricity
Import
Fuels
Fuels
Export
Export
Import
Export
Import
Food/
feed
Export
Food/
feed
Fuel marginal is fossil
• We have import and export of biomass for energy
• The world is still struggling to get rid of fossil fuels – the more dirty oil shale and tar sand
is already in large scale use, and so is Fischer-Tropsch
• Biomass for energy is limited and restricted – among other things from considerations to
the food market
• Any increase in biomass demand from DK implies use of fossil fuels somewhere else
Fuel market marginal
- issue only relevant for international markets
High wind
High bio
Import
Export
Import
Electricity
Export
Import
Electricity
Import
Fuels
Fuels
Export
Export
Import
Export
Import
Food/
feed
Export
Food/
feed
Fuel marginal is biogenic
• We have import and export of biomass for energy
• The world has succeeded in getting rid of fossil fuels – or restrictions are so high that
fossil fuel use does not respond to market mechanisms
• Biomass is a key resource to solve energy system needs – and it is the marginal fuel on
the market
• Any increase in biomass demand from DK implies new land cultivation and/or
intensification
Energy crop land marginal
High wind
High bio
Import
Export
Import
Electricity
Export
Import
Electricity
Import
Fuels
Fuels
Export
Export
Import
Export
Import
Food/
feed
Export
Food/
feed
Land marginal has high carbon binding
• Increasing demand for energy crops lead to energy crop production at new
land on the nature/culture frontier
• The marginal land affected is primary forest, peat land, grassland or wetland
with high carbon content in soil and/or vegetation
Energy crop land marginal
High wind
High bio
Import
Export
Import
Electricity
Export
Import
Electricity
Import
Fuels
Fuels
Export
Export
Import
Export
Import
Food/
feed
Export
Food/
feed
Land marginal has low carbon binding
• Increasing demand for energy crops lead to energy crop production at new
land on the nature/culture frontier
• The marginal land affected is NOT primary forest, peat land, grassland or
wetland with high carbon content in soil and/or vegetation, but land with a carbon
content not far from cultivated land
Food/feed crop land marginal
High wind
High bio
Import
Export
Import
Electricity
Export
Import
Electricity
Import
Fuels
Fuels
Export
Export
Import
Export
Import
Food/
feed
Export
Food/
feed
Land marginal has high carbon binding
• Increasing demand for energy crops leads to displacement of food/feed crops
• Displaced food/feed crops are fully or partly replaced by other suppliers under
cultivation of new land on the nature/culture frontier
• The marginal land affected is primary forest, peat land, grassland or wetland
with high carbon content in soil and/or vegetation
Food/feed crop land marginal
High wind
High bio
Import
Export
Import
Electricity
Export
Import
Electricity
Import
Fuels
Fuels
Export
Export
Import
Export
Import
Food/
feed
Export
Food/
feed
Land marginal has low carbon binding
• Increasing demand for energy crops leads to displacement of food/feed crops
• Displaced food/feed crops are fully or partly replaced by other suppliers under
cultivation of new land on the nature/culture frontier
• The marginal land affected is NOT primary forest, peat land, grassland or
wetland with high carbon content in soil and/or vegetation, but land with a carbon
content not far from cultivated land
External market marginals
High wind
High bio
Import
Export
Import
Electricity
Export
Import
Electricity
Import
Fuels
Fuels
Export
Electricity
Import
Export
Food/
feed
Components etc.
Export
Electricity
Import
Export
Fuels
External marginals fossil
• High import of materials & components from abroad
• Energy and material market marginals are mainly fossil
Food/
feed
Components etc.
Fuels
External market marginals
High wind
High bio
Import
Export
Import
Electricity
Export
Import
Electricity
Import
Fuels
Fuels
Export
Electricity
Import
Export
Food/
feed
Components etc.
Export
Export
Fuels
External marginals biogenic
• High import of materials & components from abroad
• Energy and material market marginals are mainly biogenic
• Same considerations as for energy crop marginals
Electricity
Import
Food/
feed
Components etc.
Fuels
Discussion
Discuss the boundary issues with respect to:
• Their environmental significance
• Their significance to the difference between high bio and high wind
scenarios
• Their probability
• Their inclusion in our project and environmental modelling
You are welcome to give your estimate of the most
probable future
Any other comments on the topic are welcome –
also on other topics later in the bar