Agriculture Subsidies and Trade 600 500 US$ Billion 166 400 300 21 200 100 378 210 0 Total subsidies Developed countries Total exports Developing countries Average Tariffs % 70 60 62 50 40 30 20 29 17 10 9 0 MFN Bound Agriculture MFN Applied Industrial Why the Agreement on Agriculture? Agriculture in GATT but... • exemptions for agricultural products (import restrictions, domestic support, export subsidies – allowed) • market access difficult Research - inefficiency of policies Trade tensions and disputes Punta del Este Uruguay Round Declaration Negotiations (1986) (7.5 years) Agreement on Agriculture Legal Framework Modalities + Supporting Tables Legally Binding Commitments Agreement on Agriculture Schedules of Commitments Other WTO Agreements Protocol of Accession ACC/4 Structure of the Agreement Market access Tariffs Tariff Quotas Special Safeguard Domestic support Green Box Blue Box Article 6.2 – Development Programmes Amber Box Export competition Export subsidies Anti-circumvention Export prohibitions and restrictions Other rules: S&D, Peace Clause, commitment to reform, NFIDC Decision Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures Uruguay Round Reduction Commitments Time period Market access Tariff reduction Domestic support Total AMS reduction De minimis S&D exemption Export competition Export subsidy reduction S&D exemption Developed Developing 6 years 10 years 36% average, 15% minimum 24% average, 10% minimum 20% 5% 13.3% 10% Article 6.2 (investment, input and diversification subsidies) 36% value, 21% volume 24% value, 14% volume Article 9.4 (transport and marketing subsidies) No reduction commitments for least-developed countries Long-term Objective “... establish a fair and market-oriented agricultural trading system ... ” Uruguay Round reform programme Major achievements but also some unfinished business Mandate for further reform - Article 20 Committee on Agriculture • role to monitor implementation of UR commitments - matters raised under Article 18.6 - review of notifications • • preparatory work – analysis/exchange of information mandated negotiations - Special Sessions (since 2000) The Doha Ministerial Declaration Comprehensive negotiations aimed at: • • • substantial improvements in market access reductions of, with a view to phasing out, all forms of export subsidies substantial reductions in trade-distorting domestic support S&D - integral to negotiations and outcome Non-trade concerns to be taken into account Deadlines • • • March 2003 – modalities 5th Ministerial Conference - draft Schedules 1 January 2005 - conclusion Framewor k modalities - July 2004 Market access Objective “… substantial improvements in market access …” Sample MFN tariffs (%) Simple average bound tariff Maximum ad valorem Share of non-ad valorem tariff lines Simple average applied tariff Maximum ad valorem Share of nonad valorem tariff lines European Communities 5.8 75.0 40.8 5.9 75.0 39.9 United States 6.9 350.0 49.6 5.1 350.0 1.4 Japan 6.9 62.0 22.7 7.3 50.0 22.6 Canada 3.5 238.0 26.0 3.1 238.0 20.1 Brazil 35.5 55.0 0.0 11.7 55.0 0.0 China 15.8 65.0 0.0 19.2 71.0 0.6 Kenya 100.0 100.0 0.0 20.1 100.0 0.1 Barbados 111.2 223.0 0.0 33.0 243.0 8.5 Indonesia 47.0 210.0 0.4 8.2 170.0 0.7 Malaysia 12.2 168.0 27.4 2.1 30.0 4.9 Saint Lucia 114.6 250.0 0.0 14.8 45.0 0.0 Myanmar 102.8 550.0 0.6 8.5 40.0 0.6 Source: World Trade Report 2004, WTO Export competition Objective “… reductions of, with a view to phasing out, all forms of export subsidies …” Export Subsidy Expenditures 2000 3,000 2,509 2,500 US$ Million 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 189 55 0 17 Japan Korea 45 0 Norway Brazil 0 EC US Switz-Liech. Domestic support Objective “… substantial reductions in trade-distorting domestic support …” Globally … 280 210 Billion US$ 140 70 0 1995 2001 NOR, CAN, CHE, BRA 17.7 12.1 Korea 8.3 6.5 Japan 69.6 26.7 United States 60.9 72.1 EC 116.5 75.6 Data for Korea are for the year 2000. The Doha Round negotiations Many proposals but deadline for modalities missed in March 2003 Alliances (G-20, G-90, G-33, G-10, C-4) Framework approach explored but Cancún Ministerial ends in deadlock Signs of flexibility & momentum for a framework text in mid-2004 General Council Decision adopted on 1 August 2004 to guide progress in the negotiations and the work programme – WT/L/579 Work towards “first approximation” by July 2005 but no result New proposals to move negotiations forward in fall of 2005 Hong Kong Ministerial Declaration puts the Round back on track…but a new deadline to establish modalities in April 2006 is missed Despite intensive efforts to narrow the differences, negotiations suspended at the end of July 2006 February 2007 – back to full negotiating mode July 2007 – circulation of possible draft modalities by the Chair Job(07)/128; 17 July 2007; later revised as TN/AG/W/4; 1 August 2007, TN/AG/W/4/Rev.1; 8 February 2008, TN/AG/W/4/Rev.2; 19 May 2008; TN/AG/W/4/Rev.3; 10 July 2008; Lamy’s proposals-25 July 2008 ; TN/AG/W/4/Rev.4; 6 December 2008 Market Access Market Access - Outline Current disciplines • Tariffs and tariffication • Tariff quotas • Special safeguard The Framework and the negotiations Tariffs and Tariffication Tariffs – bindings, reduction Non-tariff measures converted to tariffs Tariff only regimes Tariffs DEVELOPED DEVELOPING Implementation period 6 years 1995-2000 10 years 1995-2004 Average cut -36% -24% Minimum cut -15% -10% No reduction commitments for LDCs Tariffication Formula E = (Pi - Pe) / Pe * 100 E = Tariff equivalent Pi = Internal price (representative wholesale) Pe = External price (c.i.f. unit values) Base period average: 1986-88 Ceiling bindings for developing country Members Tariff Only Regimes Prohibition to maintain, resort or revert to: Quantitative restrictions Variable levies Minimum import prices Discretionary import licensing NTMs maintained through STEs Voluntary export restraints Similar border measures [...] BUT ... Special Treatment (Annex 5) for Japan, Korea, Philippines, Israel and Chinese Taipei Tariffs only but ... Morocco: Canada: Peaks Minimum tariff 0% Minimum tariff 0% Maximum tariff Maximum tariff 289% 238% Escalation Chinese Taipei: Tomatoes, fresh 10% Tomato juice 30% EC: Cocoa beans 0% Cocoa paste 9.6% Chocolate 18.7%+ Various Forms Ad valorem (15%) Non-ad valorem: Specific (2$ per kg), Compound (10% plus 2$ per kg), Mixed (10% or 2$ per kg, whichever is higher), Technical (9% plus EA MAX 18.7% plus ADS/Z) Tariff Quotas Current and Minimum Access Opportunities 3% - 5% of domestic consumption Low tariff for limited volumes Tariff rate Out-of-quota duty 60% 20% In-quota duty Quota volume Imports (MT) Tariff Quotas but ... % 100 80 60 40 20 Minimum / Current Access Fill rate - 60% 0 Domestic consumption Tariff quota TQ fill TQ Administration The rules The methods • • • • • • • • Applied tariffs First-come, first-served Licence on demand Historical importers Producer groups Imports by STEs Auctioning Other Possible causes for TQ underfill? Special Safeguard Additional import duty on over-quota imports, temporarily, if: Tariffication SSG in Schedule Volume or price triggers (notification) Volume-based SSG Trigger: import surges Extra duty: 1/3 of applied rate Price-based SSG Trigger: price falls Extra duty depends on price Negotiations Objective “… substantial improvements in market access …” Technical elaboration of modalities for further commitments Tariffs Tariff quotas TQ administration Importing STEs Other market access issues Tariffs – Main issues Tariff reductions • • • • Average and minimum cut – UR formula Harmonizing formula – Swiss formula a*t/(a+t) Tariff band approach Other methods: request and offer, zero-for-zero Tariff peaks and escalation, forms of tariffs S&D: • Special Products (objective criteria or self-designation; tariff reductions) Trade preferences • Preference erosion Tropical and diversification products • Fullest liberalization of trade UR Formula vs. Swiss Formula Tariff Quotas – Main issues Tariff quota expansion • Expand by x% (e.g. 20%) Current TQ = 100 t New TQ = 120 t Expand by y% (e.g. 6%) of domestic consumption Current TQ = 100 t, Domestic consumption = 2000 t New TQ = 100 t + 120 t Expand to z% (e.g. 15%) of domestic consumption Current TQ = 100 t, Domestic consumption = 2000 t New TQ = 2000*15% = 300 t • • In-quota tariff reduction S&D: Duty-free access for key products; Special Products – no TQ expansion TQ administration Special Safeguard – Main issues Current SSG • • Retain Abolish and when Special Safeguard for developing country Members: • • • What products What measures (price-based, volume-based) What about other developing country Members Framework modalities Tariff reduction - Tiered formula 1 Principles • Tariff reductions from bound rates • All Members, except LDCs, to contribute • Deeper cuts for higher tariffs; flexibilities for sensitive products; substantial improvements in market access for all products 2 Thresholds and type of tariff reductions to be negotiated 3 Tariff cap? 4 bands for tariff cuts agreed at Hong Kong Tariff Reductions Proposals: Developed Country Members Bands ACP Levels G-10 cuts Levels EC cuts Levels G-20 cuts Levels cuts US Levels cuts A 0-20 23% 0-20 27% 0-30 35% 0-20 45% 0-20 55-65% B 20-50 30% 20-50 31% 30-60 45% 20-50 55% 20-40 65-75% C 50-80 35% 50-70 37% 60-90 50% 50-75 65% 40-60 75-85% D 80+ 42% 70+ 45% 90+ 60% 75+ 75% 60+ 85-90% Other Average reduction: 36% More flexibility in each band: some tariff could be cut more deeply to allow others to be reduced less in the same band Flexibilities in the band A of between 20-45% Average reduction: 54%. Tariff Reductions Proposals: Developing Country Members Bands ACP Levels 1 0-50 G-10 cuts 15% Levels 0-30 cuts EC Levels 0-30 G-20 cuts 25% Levels 0-30 US cuts 25% Levels 0-20 2 50-100 20% 30-70 30-80 30% 30-80 30% 20-40 3 100-150 25% 70-100 80-130 35% 80-130 35% 40-60 4 150+ 30% 100+ 130+ 40% 130+ 40% 60+ Other Maximum average cut: 24% Low ceiling bindings Maximum average cut: 36%. cuts “slightly less than cuts for developed countries ” Sensitive products 1 Number of sensitive tariff lines - to be negotiated 2 “Substantial improvement” will apply to each product 3 Tariff quota commitment + tariff reduction 4 Base for tariff quota expansion – criteria to be developed Average fill rate (%) Tariff Quota Fill - 2002 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 EC 91 U S 54 Ja n a p 20 Th a nd a il 23 rb a B os d a 36 Numer of tariff quotas Data for Barbados are for 2000. o o M cc o r 67 C ol bi om 67 a Special Products and SSM Special Products • Selection: “appropriate” number • Treatment: “more flexible treatment” Special Safeguard Mechanism • Selection • Trigger • Remedy • Duration Other flexibilities LDCs: Access to all S&D provisions No reduction commitments Developed Members, and developing country Members in a position to do so, should provide duty-free and quota-free access for LDCs Duty-free quota-free access for at least 97% of products from LDCs - agreed at Hong Kong Concerns of recently acceded Members - to be addressed Preferential Schemes – Para. 16 of TN/AG/W/1/Rev.1 Maintain, to the maximum extent technically feasible, the nominal margins of tariff preferences Exception to the tariff reduction modality: Longer implementation (by the preference-granting Members) of tariff reductions affecting long-standing preferences in respect of products which are of vital export importance for developing country beneficiaries First instalment of the reduction – deferred to year [3] of implementation Products concerned - to account for at least [20] per cent of the total merchandise exports of any beneficiary Interested beneficiaries to notify the Committee on Agriculture, Special Session and submit relevant statistics In-quota duties for these products - to be eliminated Preference-providing Members to undertake targeted technical assistance to support preference-receiving countries in efforts to diversify their economies and exports Other elements Reduction/elimination of in-quota tariffs Improvements in TQ administration Tariff escalation – to be addressed Tariff simplification, special agricultural safeguard (SSG) – remain under negotiation S&D 1 Lesser tariff reduction or TQ expansion commitments 2 Flexibility to designate Special Products to address food security, livelihood security & rural development needs 3 Special Products – eligible for more flexible treatment 4 Special Safeguard Mechanism (SSM) 5 Fullest liberalization of trade in tropical and diversification products – to be addressed 6 Erosion of trade preferences - to be addressed (reference paragraph 16 of TN/AG/W/1/Rev.1) Tariff Reduction Proposal: Chairman Crawford – TN/AG/W/4/Rev.4; 6 December 2008 Developed – cuts in 5 instalments (Average cut - 54%) Bands Levels cuts Developing – cuts in 8 instalments (Average cut – 36%) Levels cuts 1 0-20 50% 0-30 33.3% 2 20-50 57% 30-80 38% 3 50-75 64% 80-130 42.7% 4 75+ 66-73% [70%] 130+ 46.7% Developed Country Tariff Cuts & Flexibility TIERED FORMULA Threshold/Tier/Band (tariffs) Cuts 0-20% 50% 20-50% 57% 50-75% 64% >75% 70% Overall minimum average cut of 54% Sensitive Products In general, [4]% of tariff lines (Japan & Canada argue for more, plus some additional flexibility) Lower tariff reductions but quid pro quo – tariff quota expansion Tariff Cap 100% on non-Sensitive Products (with possibility for limited exceptions) 44 Developing Country Tiered Formula Cuts SVEs RAMs* Threshold/Tier/Band (tariffs) Cuts (2/3rds DdC cuts) Cuts Cuts 0-30% 33.3% 23.3% 25.3%* 30-80% 38% 28% 30% 80-130% 42.7% 32.7% 34.7% >130% 46.9% 36.9% 38.9% Overall maximum average cut of 36% Tariff Cap 150% but doesn’t apply to Sensitive or Special Products *No cuts if tariff less than or equal to 10% & very recent RAMs and small low-income RAMs with economies in transition exempt from reduction commitments 45 Other Market Access Issues – Chair’s Draft Modalities Sensitive Products Number: 4 per cent of [dutiable] tariff lines or 6 per cent where over 30 per cent of the developed-country tariff lines are in the top band or where tariff concessions have been scheduled at the 6 digit level Canada and Japan reservations Developing countries can designate one-third more of tariff lines as sensitive Treatment: ⅓, ½ or ⅔ deviation from envisaged normal cuts. Thus if developed countries have to reduce their tariffs by 66%, the resulting cuts would be 44%, 33% and 22%, respectively. Other Market Access Issues – Chair’s Draft Modalities Tariff Quota Expansion Where ⅔ deviation is used, the TQ shall result in new access opportunities equivalent to no less than 4 per cent of domestic consumption Where ½ or ⅓ deviation is used, the TQ shall result in new access opportunities equivalent to no less than 3.5 and 3 per cent of domestic consumption, respectively Members can choose to designate more sensitive products (by 2 percentage points – 6%). In that event, additional access of 0.5% of domestic consumption has to be granted If after the application of the formula, a Member has some its tariff lines in excess of 100%, it can retain these provided its overall limit is not breached and if it applies a further expansion of [0.5%] of domestic consumption for these sensitive products New Tariff Quotas? Other Market Access Issues – Chair’s Draft Modalities TRQ Expansion: SDT for developing countries: two-thirds of the volume for developed countries. Consumption of subsistence production excluded Tariff Simplification No tariff should be bound in a form more complex than the current binding Simplified bound tariffs should not result in an increase of their current levels All bound tariffs to be expressed as simple ad valorem tariffs. In any event, highly complex form of tariffs such as complex matrix tariffs shall be converted into ad valorem tariffs or specific tariffs EC: can keep 15% of its tariff lines in non-ad valorem form SDT for developing countries – 2 additional years for developing countries to effect such changes. LDCs exempted from this obligation Bound in-quota tariffs: To be reduced by either 50% or to 10% whichever results in a lower tariff. Where the in-quota tariff is ≤ 55 ad valorem, then should be eliminated at the end of the 1st year of implementation: SDT for DCs (15%) and SVEs (7.5%) Tariff quota expansion: applied on MFN basis. Administration of TQs to e subjected to the Agreement on Import Licensing. Enhanced transparency Other Market Access Issues – Chair’s Draft Modalities Special Products Developing countries entitled to self-designate 12% of their tariff lines as special on the basis of the agreed indicators – food security, livelihood security and rural development Up to 5% of the tariff lines not be subjected to any cuts. The overall average cut shall be 11 per cent Under Lamy’s 25 July 2008 proposal, developing countries can designate 12% of tariff lines as special products. No cuts on 5% of the tariff lines but an overall average cut of 11% SVEs and RAMs – Flexible treatment : Under Lamy’s proposal, RAMs will be able to designate 13% of their tariff lines as SPs and make an overall cut of 10% Other Market Access Issues – Chair’s Draft Modalities Special Agricultural Safeguard (SSG) Developed-country Members not to have the right to use SSG (DCs’ proposal) Reduction to 1 percent scheduled tariff lines – the number of tariff lines eligible for SSG [Under Lamy’s 25 July 2008 proposal, same figure]. To be phased out within 7 years. Remedy not to exceed UR bound rates Developing countries - eligible tariff lines to be reduced to no more than 2.5 per cent on the 1st day of implementation Terms and conditions of the SSG to remain unchanged from the URAA terms and conditions. However, tariff rates to be updated to reflect Doha outcome Other Market Access Issues – Chair’s Draft Modalities Special Safeguard Mechanism (SSM): To be available for all products in principle. However, not to be invoked for more than 2.5% of all and only if surge in imports is accompanied by declining prices TRIGGERS: Both price and volume-based SSM will be available. The two may not be imposed at the same time. Neither can any one of them be imposed in respect of a product which is the subject of a safeguard measure, including under Art 5 of the AoA, an antidumping or countervailing measure Detailed rules on volume and price triggers and their remedies As regards remedies, the maximum increase over the UR BR could not be more than 15% or 15% of the current BR, whichever is higher Cannot be used for more than 2-6 products in a given period nor in two consecutive periods Special Safeguard Mechanism For volume-based SSM, developing countries can increase tariffs by 25% if imports exceed 110% of base imports; by 40% if imports exceed 115% of base imports; and 50% if imports exceed 135% of base imports. (G-33: 105%, 110% and 130% of base imports with accompanying remedies of 40, 50 and 60%) Base imports to be calculated as a rolling average of imports in the preceding 3-year period and the remedy could not exceed UR levels unless specified conditions met. Volume-based SSM could be maintained for a maximum period of 12 months from the initial invocation of measure, unless a seasonal product is involved, in which case the period will be 6 months No product to be subject to volume-based SSM consecutively for more than 2 periods and where this has occurred, this measure may not be resorted to again before the lapse of a further two consecutive periods Special Safeguard Mechanism Flexibility for least-developed countries and SVEs With respect to LDCs, the maximum increase over the UR bound rate could be no more than 40% or 40% of the current bound tariff, whichever is higher With respect to SVEs, the maximum increase over the UR bound rate could be no more than 20% or 20% of the current bound tariff, whichever is higher, for up to a maximum of 10-15% of tariff lines in any given period SSM – Volume-based Basis of rolling average of imports over 3 preceding years Thresholds (para 134) Remedies[1] 110%-115% 25% current bnd tariff OR 25 percentage points 115%-135% 40% current bnd tariff OR 40 percentage points >135% 50% current bnd tariff OR 50 percentage points [1] Exceeding pre-Doha bindings - LDCs, SVEs and DgC TN/AG/W/7 suggests 2 triggers & remedies for exceeding pre- Doha bindings (i) 120% - 140% - 1/3rd of current bound or 8 percentage pts whichever is the higher (ii) >140% - ½ of current bound or 12 percentage pts whichever is the higher Other Issues Length of remedy – 4/8 months; may be re-imposed after the lapse of 4/8 months (equal period of time must lapse) Cross-check (not normally applicable if domestic price falling) Limitation on scope (2.5% TLs?) 54 SSM – Price-based Trigger 85% of three year monthly average Remedy 85% of difference between trigger price and import price max duty current bound duty Applied on a shipment-by-shipment basis Not normally take recourse if import volumes manifestly declining (cross-check) 55 How SSM will work in practice Pre-Doha BR=80%; Post Doha BR=60%; AR=30/50% Trigger (import rise) Remedy (tariff increase) % of current BR + % of current AR; current AR+ percentage points BR=60% AR=30% BR=60% AR=50% 10-15% 25% or 25 percentage points whichever is greater 45% or 55% 75 55 30-35% 40% or 40 percentage points whichever is greater 54% or 70% 90>80 70 35% + 50% or 50 percentage points whichever is greater 60% or 80% 100>80 80 Other Market Access Issues – Chair’s Draft Modalities For price falls (“price based”), the starting point is the average monthly import (C.I.F) price over the previous three years — i.e., before the current year. (Par.126) If the price of a shipment is 15% or more below that reference (85% of the reference average), then the tariff can be imposed on that shipment — shipment by shipment. (Par.126–7) Prices for preferential trade cannot be used. (Par.129) Remedy: The tariff increase cannot be more than 85% of the gap between the price of the shipment and the trigger price. (Par.127) SSM “normally” cannot be used if the import volume is “manifestly declining” or is a “manifestly negligible” amount that cannot undermine the domestic price (Par.128). Other details on currency fluctuations, transparency, etc Exceeding-Pre-Doha /UR BR Country Trigger (import rise /price fall) Remedy (tariff increase) % of current BR + pre-Doha BR; Pre-Doha BR+ percentage points PreDoha=80% Current BR=60% DCs 15% or 15 percentage points whichever is greater 2-6 89% or 95% 95 products import rise /price fall Limits in each period at the 6 digit level Not in 2 periods SVEs import rise /price fall 20% or 20 percentage points whichever is greater 92% or 100% 100 10-15% of tariff lines: Detailed products LDCs import rise /price fall 40% or 40 percentage points whichever is greater 104% or 120% 120 No specific limit Other Market Access Issues – Chair’s Draft Modalities Under Lamy’s 25 July 2008 Text: SSM for above bound rate trigger is 140% of base imports Remedy for above bound is applicable with a ceiling of 15% of current bound tariff or 15 ad valorem points, whichever is the greater That remedy is not normally applicable if prices are not actually declining Maximum number of tariff lines for above bound 2,5% in any year Exceeding-Pre-Doha /UR BR Lamy’s Proposal Country Trigger (additional for import rise) Remedy (tariff increase) % of current BR + pre-Doha BR; Pre-Doha BR+ percentage points PreDoha=80% Current BR=60% DCs 15% or 15 percentage points whichever is greater 2.5% of 89% or 95% 95 tariff 40% Limits in each period linesdetailed products TROPICAL PRODUCTS – Annex G Deeper tariff cuts Where the scheduled tariff is less or equal to 25% ad valorem, it shall be reduced to zero Where the scheduled tariff is greater than 25% ad valorem, the applicable tariff cut shall be 85% Where the scheduled tariff is greater than or equal to 10%, the applicable tariff cut shall be 70%, except for tariffs in the top band, which shall be reduced by the tariff escalation tariff cut for that band increased by 2% [Where the scheduled tariff is less than 10%, it shall be reduced to zero] [Tropical products shall not be designated as sensitive] [Implementation by developed-country members in 4 equal instalments] Developing countries in a position to do encouraged to do more Considerable progress made in July 08 mini-Ministerial A lot depends on the outcome of the banana agreement Chairman wanted to record progress in latest draft modalities text but due to “certain material changes” which occurred post July, the Chairman was unable to modify the draft modalities text PREFERENCE EROSION – Annex H No tariff cuts on the items listed in Annex for 10 years Tariff cuts to be implemented thereafter over 5 years in equal instalments Where a product is listed in the Annex and the ff conditions are met, the implementation period will be 10 years (8+2) the pre-Doha MFN tariff is greater than 10% ad valorem the total value of trade over a 3 year representative period is greater than $50,000 or constitutes [3]% of the long standing preferencereceiving country’s total agricultural trade to the market concerned there is unlimited long-standing preference eligibility in the market concerned Provisions to prevail where there is overlap with provisions on tariff escalation / tropical products Targeted technical assistance TARIFF ESCALATION [Tariffs on processed products to be reduced more steeply. Instead of taking the cut that would otherwise apply to final bound tariffs in the band to which the processed product belongs (with the exception of the top band), the processed product shall take the cut applicable to tariffs that fall in the next highest band [Products falling in the top band to be reduced by a cut that would otherwise have been applicable according to the tiered formula increased by 6 ad valorem points] Supplementary cuts to be moderated in two situations: First, where the absolute difference between the processed and primary product after the application of the normal tariff formula would be 5 ad valorem percentage points or less in any given tier except the bottom tier – no additional tariff escalation adjustment to be required Second, the application of adjustment formula should not lead to a higher tariff on the primary product than the processed product COMMODITIES Where problems persist after the application of the formula, including the tariff escalation adjustment formula, Members are to engage with commodity-dependent producing countries to ensure satisfactory solutions Identification of products for the purpose of applying the tariff escalation formula – specific targets; non-ad valorem duties to be converted and bound Elimination of NTBs Joint action – intergovernmental commodity agreements etc LDCS LDCs: No reduction commitments DFQF – 100% : By 2008 or the start of the implementation period; where there are difficulties, 97% at the beginning to be increased gradually to 100% Developing countries in a position to do so encouraged to grant DFQF – phase in of commitments Cotton Market Access: DFQF for LDCs SVEs The term SVEs to apply to Members with economies that, in the period 1999 to 2004, had an average share of: World merchandise trade of no more than 0.16% or less World trade in non-agricultural products of no more than 0.1% World trade in agricultural products of no more than 0.4% SVEs could moderate the two-thirds cut by developing countries by a further 10 ad-valorem points in each band Flexibility in the designation of special products – SVEs can deviate from the tiered formula cut for as many tariff lines as they choose to designate as SPs provided they meet the overall average cut of 24% Products designated as SPs need not be subject to a minimum tariff cut nor designation be guided by the indicators RAMs Entitled to moderate tariff cuts in the top 2 bands by 10 ad-valorem percentage points and by 5 ad valorem percentage points in the bottom two bands Saudi Arabia, Macedonia, Vietnam and Tonga exempted from undertaking cuts For other RAMs, where there is an overlap between accession commitments and commitments associated with modalities, the start of the IP shall be one year after the end of the accession commitment Implementation period shall be 10 years (8+2) Flexibility in the designation of special products – one tenth greater than the amount to be designated by developing countries. Relevant cuts for the designated tariff lines may be further reduced by 2 ad-valorem points Domestic Support Domestic Support - Outline Current disciplines Green Box Blue Box Article 6.2 – Development Programmes Amber Box The Framework and the negotiations The Boxes Green Box Annex 2 No more than minimally trade or production distorting Article 6.2 Measures Development programmes: investment, input, diversification Blue Box Article 6.5 Production-limiting programmes Amber Box Subject to reduction commitments De minimis allowance How much domestic support? 300 250 US$ Billion 200 150 100 50 0 1995 2001 Canada 3.0 3.0 Norway 3.3 2.5 Brazil 5.5 2.8 Switzerland-Liecht. 5.9 3.8 Korea 8.3 6.5 Japan 69.6 26.7 US 60.8 72.1 EC 116.9 75.6 Data for Korea are for the year 2000. Categories of support - 2001 90,000 75,000 60,000 Million US$ 45,000 30,000 15,000 0 EC US JPN KOR CHE BRA NOR CAN Current Total AMS 35,151 14,413 5,328 1,495 773 7,045 257 463 De minimis 1,632 0 1,187 1,791 - 976 - 164 Blue Box 21,231 - 728 - - - 813 - Article 6.2 - - - 45 - 332 - - 480 1,088 Green Box 18,489 50,672 20,355 4,469 Data for Korea are for the year 2000. 2,190 1,462 Green Box No, or at most minimal, trade-distorting effects or effects on production Basic criteria Assistance: - Provided through publicly funded government programme - Not involving transfers from consumers - Not resulting in price support to producers Green Box – Scope General services, including: research pest and disease control training extension/advisory services inspection marketing and promotion infrastructural services Public stockholding for food security purposes Domestic food aid Direct payments, including: decoupled income support income insurance and income safety-net relief from natural disasters structural adjustment assistance producer retirement resource retirement investment aids environmental programmes regional assistance programmes Policy-specific “decoupling” X Type of production Volume of production Amount of payments Domestic prices International prices Factors of production X In any year after the base period Blue Box based on fixed area and yields; Direct payments under production-limiting programmes exempt from reduction if: or made on 85% of base level of production; or livestock payments are made on a fixed number of head Article 6.2 Development programmes exempt from reduction: • investment subsidies generally available to agriculture • input subsidies generally available to low-income or resource poor producers • support to encourage diversification from growing illicit narcotic crops Sample Scheduled Reduction Commitment Amber Box Schedule LXXIX - THAILAND PART IV - AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS: COMMITMENTS LIMITING SUBSIDIZATION (Article 3 of the Agreement on Agriculture) SECTION I - Domestic Support: Total AMS Commitments BASE TOTAL AMS Years of implementation Annual and final bound Relevant Supporting Tables and (million Baht) 1995 - 2004 commitment levels document reference (million Baht) 1 22,126.18 2 3 1 21,816.41 AGST/THA 2 21,506.64 Supporting Tables 4, 5, 8 and 9 3 21,196.87 4 20,887.10 5 20,577.33 6 20,267.56 7 19,957.79 8 19,648.02 9 19,338.25 10 19,028.48 What if there is no commitment? - Article 7 % cut in aggregate terms AMS Reduction Commitment DEVELOPED DEVELOPING Implementation period 6 years 1995-2000 10 years 1995-2004 Cut in Total AMS -20% -13.3% De minimis allowance 5% 10% No reduction commitments for LDCs EC and the CAP Reform 80 Euros Billion 60 40 20 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003* Green 18.8 22.1 18.2 19.2 21.9 21.8 20.7 20.4 22.1 Blue 20.8 21.5 20.4 20.5 19.8 22.2 23.7 24.7 24.8 Amber 50.0 51.0 50.2 46.7 47.9 43.7 39.3 28.5 30.9 WTO limit 78.7 76.4 74.1 71.8 69.5 67.2 67.2 67.2 67.2 * This notification covers support to the European Union after enlargement on 1 May 2004. Price gap calculations are performed on EU25 production levels for a 12 month period and include direct payments to 25 member States. Total AMS commitment level for 2003 (€67,159 million) is without prejudice to the EC25 commitment to be presented in the new EC25 schedule after enlargement. US and the Farm Bill 60 US$ Billion 50 40 30 20 10 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 46 51.8 51.3 49.8 49.7 50 50.1 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 De minimis 1.6 1.2 0.8 4.8 7.4 7.3 7 Amber 6.2 5.9 6.2 10.4 16.9 16.8 14.4 23.1 22.3 21.5 20.7 19.9 19.1 19.1 Green Blue WTO limit Calculating the Current Total AMS De minimis Market price support Non-exempt direct payments (e.g. loan deficiency payments, grants, compensatory payments) Other non-exempt measures All product-specific EMS Product-specific support Water subsidies Fertilizer subsidies Crop insurance Subsidized credits Non-product-specific support allowance + Current Total AMS Negotiations Objective “… substantial reductions in trade-distorting domestic support …” Technical elaboration of modalities for further commitments The Boxes S&D elements The Boxes – Main issues Green Box • • • Cap/reduce or maintain without limits Tighten or relax criteria Expand scope to address: NTCs, developing country concerns Blue Box – should it stay or should it go? Article 6.2 – further flexibilities to pursue targeted development needs Amber Box • • • Reduce or eliminate AMS Maintain, reduce or increase de minimis Establish specific flexibilities (S&D, economies in transition, recently acceded Members) Key issue - Size of cuts Framework modalities Overall trade-distorting domestic support Overall reduction Tiered formula, with 20% downpayment in the first year of implementation Base level Final Bound Total AMS + Permitted de minimis (half product specific and other half non-product specific) + Agreed Blue Box level Deeper cuts for higher levels of support OTDS - Proposals and main issues Members’ proposals Tier 1 (EC) Tier 2 (Japan and US) Tier 3 (Other Members with Total AMS) EC 70% 60% 50% US 75% 53% 31% G20 80% 75% 70% G10 75% 65% 45% Developing country Members (all in tier 3) to make lesser reductions over a longer implementation period. Main issue - Size of cuts Framework modalities – Trade-distorting domestic support Individual elements Final Bound Total AMS – tiered formula Product-specific AMS caps - average level to be agreed - base period to be agreed Reduction in de minimis Capping of the Blue Box Final Bound Total AMS – Proposals and main issues Members’ proposals Tier 1 (EC) Tier 2 (Japan and US) Tier 3 (Other Members) EC 70% 60% 50% US 83% 60% 37% G20 80% 70% 60% G10 70% 60% 40% Developing country Members (all in tier 3) to make lesser reductions over a longer implementation period. Main issues: - Size of cuts in Final Bound Total AMS - Base period for product-specific AMS caps (1999-2001 or 1995-2000) Hong Kong Ministerial Declaration Trade-distorting domestic support Bands for reductions Member with highest level of support Members with 2nd and 3rd highest levels of support Other Members Developed country Members in lower bands with high relative level of Final Bound Total AMS – to make an additional effort Developing country Members with no AMS commitments – exempt from reductions in de minimis and the overall cut Higher linear cuts in higher bands De minimis Reduction in de minimis (by 50% or 80% or such reduction as to adjust to the rate of cut in OTDS) S&D: Developing countries that allocate almost all de minimis support for subsistence and resource-poor farmers will be exempt from reduction % of value of agricultural production Use of de minimis - 2001 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 EC US JPN Product-specific Data for Korea are for the year 2000. KOR CHE BRA Non-product-specific NOR Blue Box Direct payments under: - production-limiting programmes or - no requirement to produce - additional criteria to be negotiated Blue Box not to exceed 5% of a Member’s average total value of agricultural production during an historical period % of value of agricultural production Blue Box - 2001 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 813 mln $ 21,231 mln $ 728 mln $ 5% cap 0 mln $ EC US JPN NOR Blue Box - Proposals and main issues Lower the Blue Box cap – 2.5% of VOP (or less) Develop additional criteria: - non-concentration via “double trigger” - offsetting mechanism - other? Main issues: - how to ensure less trade-distortion - how to design effective disciplines on “old” and “new” Blue Box Green Box Review and clarify criteria Ensure basic concepts, principles and effectiveness remain; take due account of non-trade concerns Strengthen monitoring and surveillance Green Box expenditure - 2001 60,000 US$ million 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 EC US JPN KOR CHE BRA NOR CAN Data for Korea for the year 2000. Main issue: what amendments should be made, if any Hong Kong Ministerial Declaration Cotton All forms of export subsidies to be eliminated by developed countries in 2006 Developed countries to give duty and quota free access for cotton exports from LDCs from the start of implementation period Trade-distorting domestic subsidies to be reduced more ambitiously and implemented over a shorter period of time than generally applicable Development assistance aspects: - Consultative Framework process (bilateral donors, multilateral and regional institutions) - explore a possibility of establishing a mechanism to address income declines in the cotton sector - Director General to furnish a third Period Report at the next Ministerial Conference Follow-up and monitoring – Director General to set up an appropriate mechanism 1 S&D Longer implementation period 2 Lower reduction coefficients for all types of tradedistorting support 3 4 Access to Article 6.2 – Development programmes De minimis support for subsistence and resource-poor farmers – exempt from reduction Chairman’s Draft ModalitiesTN/AG/W/4/Rev.4 Base overall trade-distorting domestic support (OTDS) shall be the sum of: (i) final bound total AMS; (ii) 10% of value of production in the 1995-2000 base period – representing 5% for product-specific support and 5% for non-product specific support; for developing countries 10% each: base period either 1995-2000 or 1995-2004 (iii) the higher of average Blue Box payments or 5% of the average total value of production (1995-2000) Thus for some developed countries, the base level would be Amber box commitment plus 15% of production Chair’s Proposed Draft Modalities OTDS Bands Range Proposed Cuts 1 - EC ≥ $60 billion [80%] 2 – US and Japan ≥$10 billion and ≤ 60 billion [70%] US [75%] Japan 3 –Others – Developed and Developing [55] % ≤ $10 billion DOMESTIC SUPPORT Chair’s Draft Modalities Under the Chairman’s proposal, US OTDS will be reduced from $48.2 billion to between $13 and $16.4 billion. Under its own proposal, it will be reduced to $22.5 billion. Offered in July 2008, to reduce to $14.5 billion According to the recent notification by the US, its payments on OTDS amounted to $ 16.3 billion in 2002, $10.2 billion in 2003, $18.1 billion in 2004 and $18.9 billion in 2005 Estimated that because of high commodity prices in 2007, the US payments on OTDS amounted to no more than $9 billion. Figure not confirmed by the US DOMESTIC SUPPORT Chair’s Draft Modalities The current ceiling of the EC (15 Members) is estimated at €110.3 billion ($152 billion). Cut will bring the ceiling down to €27.6 billion or €16.5 billion. Cut of 80 per cent will bring it down to €22.06 billion (around $35 billion). Japan expected to do more, as its overall support is more than 40 per cent of the total value of its agricultural production – a cut halfway between the cuts of the top and the second tiers DOMESTIC SUPPORT Chair’s Draft Modalities Implementation period and staging: Developed countries: six steps over 5 years. For the EC, US and Japan, the base OTDS will be reduced by one-third (33%) on the first day of implementation and the remainder to be reduced in five equal instalments For developed Members in the third tier, the base OTDS will be reduced by 25 per cent on the first day of implementation and the remainder to be reduced in five equal instalments Developing countries with no Final Bound Total AMS commitments exempted from undertaking reduction commitments with respect to their base OTDS. Those with AMS commitments will undertake two-thirds of the cut made by developed countries in the lowest tier (37%) Reductions by developing countries shall be implemented in nine steps over 8 years. The base OTDS shall be reduced by 20 per cent on the first day of implementation and the remainder in eight equal instalments RAMs which recently acceded exempted, so also are small low-income RAMs with economies-in-transition. For other RAMs, treatment comparable to that of other developing countries – two-thirds cut and a transitional period of 8 years Chair’s Proposed Draft Modalities - AMS Bands Range Proposed Cuts 1 ≥ $40 billion [70] % 2 ≥$15 billion and ≤ 40 billion [60] % 3 ≤$15 billion [45] % Domestic Support Chairman’s proposals Under the Chairman’s proposal, the amber box limit of the EC will be reduced from €67.1 billion ($92.5 billion) to €20.1 billion The amber box limit of the US will be reduced from $19.1 billion to $7.6 billion Developed countries whose Amber Box support is more than 40% of the value of their agricultural production to make a bigger cut, i.e. a cut halfway between the cut of their tier and the tier above According to figures provided by the US, AMS payments for 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005 were $9.6 billion, $6.9 billion, $11.6 billion and 12.9 billion, respectively. Brazil and Canada are alleging in the dispute settlement proceedings that the US exceeded its WTO limits for most of these years, a claim the US denies. Domestic Support – Chairman’s Proposals Implementation period and staging: The EC, US and Japan to cut 25% from the start. All other cuts to be made over 5 years in 5 equal instalments For other developed countries, reductions to be implemented in six equal instalments over 5 years, commencing on the 1st day of implementation Developing countries expected to reduce their support by two-thirds of the cut made by developed countries in the bottom tier (30%). Implementation in nine equal instalments over 8 years, commencing on the 1st day of implementation RAMs which recently acceded exempted from cuts, so also are small lowincome RAMs with economies-in-transition. Some allowed to exclude investment subsidies from Amber Box calculations. Other RAMs to make two-thirds of the normal cut Domestic Support PRODUCT-SPECIFIC AMS CAPS – average applied during the UR implementation period (1995-2000) For the US – average between 1995-2004 and 1995-2000 S&D for developing countries – base period (1995-2000 or 19952004) DE MINIMIS: to be reduced by 50 per cent by developed countries – i.e. cap at 2.5 per cent of the value of production S&D for developing countries: some exempted, others to make two-thirds of the cuts of developed countries BLUE BOX: maximum permitted value not to exceed 2.5 per cent of the average total value of agricultural production Lesser cut if over 40% of Member’s support placed in the blue box Deeper cut in AMS support for cotton Tightened disciplines for the Green Box Export Competition and the Marrakesh NFIDC Decision Export Competition - Outline Current disciplines Export subsidies Anti-circumvention Export prohibitions and restrictions The Framework and the negotiations The Marrakesh NFIDC Decision Definition Export Subsidies Article 1(e): Subsidies contingent upon export performance, including the export subsidies listed in Article 9 Legal Framework Export subsidies allowed only if listed in the Schedule and subject to reduction commitments (volume and budgetary outlays) Roll-over provisions (now expired) S&D: subsidies for marketing and internal transport (during the implementation period) Anti-circumvention provisions Policy Coverage - Article 9.1 Direct subsidies contingent on export performance Sale or disposal for export by governments or their agencies of non- commercial stocks at prices below domestic market price Payments on exports financed by government action (including producer financed subsidies) Subsidies to reduce cost of marketing, including handling, upgrading, international transport and freight Favourable internal transport and freight charges on export shipments Subsidies on agricultural products contingent on their incorporation in exported products Export Subsidies DEVELOPED DEVELOPING Implementation period 6 years 1995-2000 10 years 1995-2004 Cut in budgetary outlays -36% -24% Cut in subsidized quantities -21% -14% No reduction commitments for LDCs Members with Scheduled Reduction Commitments Australia (5) Number of products EC (20) Poland (17) Bolivarian Republic Hungary (16) Romania (13) of Venezuela (72) Iceland (2) Slovak Rep. (17) Brazil (16) Indonesia (1) South Africa (62) Bulgaria (44) Israel (6) Switzerl-Liecht. (5) Canada (11) Mexico (5) Turkey (44) Colombia (18) New Zealand (1) United States (13) Cyprus (9) Norway (11) Uruguay (3) Czech Rep. (16) Panama (1) Export Subsidy Expenditures 2000 3,000 2,509 2,500 US$ Million 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 189 55 0 17 Japan Korea 45 0 Norway Brazil 0 EC US But what about the Panels? Switz-Liech. Export Subsidies Article 10 to prevent circumvention of export subsidy commitments Other forms of export subsidies Export credits, insurance and guarantees • • Develop internationally agreed disciplines But ... negotiations with no result - OECD Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits does not cover agriculture Food aid • • Specific criteria, Food Aid Convention, FAO But ... is it always genuine aid or dumping? Other ways to evade commitments? - Taxes, production quotas - Domestic support - Other Export Prohibitions and Restrictions • • • Article XI.1(a) of GATT – provision for the temporary application of an export prohibition or restriction Article 12 of the AoA – when applying GATT Article XI.2(a): Give due consideration to impacts on importing Members’ food security Advance written notice, consultations on request Not applicable to developing countries which are not net exporters of the specific foodstuff concerned Negotiations Objective “… reductions of, with a view to phasing out, all forms of export subsidies …” Technical elaboration of modalities for further commitments Export subsidies Export credits, insurance and guarantees Food aid Exporting STEs Export restrictions and taxes Main issues • Reduce/eliminate export subsidies Parallel elimination of all forms of export subsidies: Export credits, insurance and guarantees - • Food aid - • Genuine aid vs. surplus dumping; Need declaration vs. response to an appeal; Concessional vs. grant form State trading enterprises - Reduction commitments vs. rules-based approach; Disciplines in favour of LDCs and NFIDCs Tackle the enterprises or specific measures Export restrictions and taxes - Reduce/eliminate export restrictions; Export taxes – not for negotiation? Key issue – End export subsidies by ? Framework modalities Credible end date Parallel elimination of: Export subsidies • • • • Export credits, guarantees & insurance with repayment periods > 180 days Export credits, guarantees & insurance with repayment periods ≤ 180 days which are not in accordance with disciplines to be agreed Trade-distorting elements of export STEs Food aid that is not in conformity with operationally effective disciplines to be agreed Implementation - Annual instalments S&D 1 Longer implementation periods 2 Access to Article 9.4 (marketing & transportation subsidies) 3 Disciplines on export credits, guarantees or insurance programmes - provision for differential treatment in favour of LDCs and NFIDCs 4 STEs - Special consideration for maintaining monopoly status Hong Kong Ministerial Declaration • Parallel elimination of all forms of export subsidies – 2013 Substantial part to be eliminated by the end of the first half of the implementation period Disciplines: Export credits, insurance and guarantees ≤ 180 days - • Food aid - • “Safe box” for bona fide food aid in emergency situations Eliminate commercial displacement via effective disciplines on in-kind food aid, monetization and re-exports State trading enterprises - • Should be self-financing, reflecting market consistency and of sufficiently short duration so as not to effectively circumvent real commercially-oriented discipline Disciplines to also cover future use of monopoly power Access to Article 9.4 for developing country Members for five years after the end-date for elimination of all forms of export subsidies Export Competition – Chair’s Draft ModalitiesTN/AG/W/4/rev1 • Elimination of all forms of export subsidies by 2013. Budgetary outlays- 50% reduction by 2010 and the rest in equal instalments • Reduction commitments also on quantity of exported products S&D for developing countries - 2016 • • • • Developing countries to benefit from the provisions of Article 9.4 until 5 yrs after the end of the implementation period Proposed strengthened disciplines on agricultural exporting STEs and international food aid Elimination of all forms of export subsidies for cotton ... The Marrakesh NFIDC Decision Recognize possible negative effects of reform programme: • availability of adequate food supplies from external sources, on reasonable terms • short-term difficulties in financing normal levels of commercial imports WTO list of NFIDCs: • Least-developed countries (UN list) plus • Barbados, Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Botswana, Côte d'Ivoire, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Egypt, Gabon, Honduras, Jamaica, Jordan, Kenya, Mauritius, Mongolia, Morocco, Namibia, Pakistan, Peru, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Senegal, Sri Lanka, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia The Marrakesh NFIDC Decision Food aid: • review by the Committee on Agriculture • new Food Aid Convention 1999 – extended to 30 June 2007 • notifications (quantity and concessionality) Consideration given to requests for assistance to improve agricultural productivity and infrastructure Export credits (negotiations ongoing) Short-term difficulties in financing commercial imports of basic foodstuffs - access to resources of international financial institutions, e.g. IMF and the World Bank The Marrakesh NFIDC Decision Inter-agency Panel of finance and commodity experts from IMF, World Bank, FAO, IGC, WTO • explore ways for improving access to multilateral programs and facilities to assist with short-term difficulties in financing normal levels of commercial imports of basic foodstuffs Discussions in the Committee on Agriculture • concept and feasibility of proposal to establish an ex-ante financing mechanism May 2003 - Round-table of experts to: • explore the need for a safety net • identify appropriate mechanisms Recommendations for the IFIs and the Committee on Agriculture
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