1 Running head: CURVILINEAR EFFECTS OF REFLEXIVITY IN TEAM DECISION MAKING TEAM SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT DECISIONS CURVILINEAR EFFECTS OF REFLEXIVITY AND REGULATORY FOCUS MICHAÉLA SCHIPPERS Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University PO Box 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands Email address: [email protected] LAURENS ROOK Faculty Technology, Policy and Management Delft University of Technology Email address: [email protected] STEEF VAN DE VELDE Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University PO Box 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands Email address: [email protected] Author Note Michaéla C. Schippers, Steef van de Velde, Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam. Laurens Rook, Delft University of Technology. The authors wish to thank Giles Hirst and Stefanie Protzner for their constructive comments on an earlier version of the paper, and Jeremy Dawson for his statistical advice. 2 TEAM SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT DECISIONS CURVILINEAR EFFECTS OF REFLEXIVITY AND REGULATORY FOCUS ABSTRACT In the present study we explored how the team reflexivity and regulatory focus interact to influence team performance in supply chain management decision making, using a sample of 258 people distributed over 81 teams playing a complex S&OP (Sales and Operations Planning) business simulation. Our main finding is that high levels of reflexivity positively influence team performance when teams are low on promotion and high on prevention. We further found that low levels of reflexivity seem especially counterproductive for teams with a combination of low promotion/high prevention focus, whereas moderate levels of reflexivity yielded moderate results for all teams. Keywords: team performance, team reflexivity, regulatory focus, sales & operations planning, supply chain management. 3 INTRODUCTION Team decision making is essential for team performance and competitive advantage (De Dreu, Nijstad, & van Knippenberg, 2008; Hollenbeck et al., 1995; Orasanu & Salas, 1993). A growing body of research seeks to identify factors that are related to superior team decision making and offset the process losses and biases inherent in group decision making (Kerr & Tindale, 2004; Tindale, 1993; Tindale & Kameda, 2000). Unfortunately, group decisions are often suboptimal (Kerr & Tindale, 2004), in many cases due to biased information processing within teams (Schulz-Hardt, Frey, Lüthgens, & Moscovici, 2000). Organizations and researchers therefore increasingly seek to understand the factors that enhance rather than impair the quality of team information processing and subsequent decision making in various managerial settings. In the present study, we focus on one of those managerial domains - supply chain management - and attempt to improve our knowledge on how cognitive and motivational biases in group decision making may influence supply chain management performance. Supply chain management is concerned with the transformation of raw material into distributive goods, and the delivery of those goods to consumers as quickly and cost-effectively as possible (cf. Bowersox, Closs, & Stank, 1999). The critical supply chain decisions are typically made in the so-called Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) meeting (Oliva & Watson, 2009). This is a cross-functional team process, involving periodical meetings on a large number of planning processes ranging from sales, marketing, new product launch, to manufacturing and distribution. Based on detailed analysis of demand, demand forecasts, and supply and capacity constraints, the outcome usually is a single executable plan in which demand and supply are matched (Simchi-Levi, Kaminsky, & Simchi-Levi, 2003). Because of the sheer complexity of supply chain management decisions in general and of the S&OP process in particular, there often is a gap between the (mostly) mathematical models that could serve as guidance in the decision 4 making process, and the rules of thumb that people tend to follow in practice (Bendoly, Donohue, & Schultz, 2006). Prior research has in that respect highlighted the importance of information processing skills of the various members within the supply chain for decision making outcomes (Hult, Ketchen, & Slater, 2004). Others have called for the need to incorporate behavioral factors in supply chain management decision making, but have so far limited their scope to individual rather than team decision makers (Bendoly et al., 2006; Gino & Pisano, 2008). Given the practical relevance of S&OP team decisions, it is therefore of key importance to combine these two perspectives, and to gain more insight into the ways in which information processing skills of the various members of decision making groups influences team supply chain management decisions. To foreshadow the theorizing developed in the present study, we maintain that the behavioral factors 'team reflexivity' and 'regulatory focus' interact to influence S&OP decisions, and hence team performance. Drawing from a motivated information processing perspective on team decision making (De Dreu, 2007; De Dreu et al., 2008; Hinsz, Tindale, & Vollrath, 1997), recent studies show that team reflexivity - i.e., the extent to which teams collectively reflect upon their working methods and functioning - can trigger an information processing strategy, in which the team consciously attempts to identify, discuss, and eventually diminish erroneous decisionmaking (Schippers, Edmondson, & West, 2011; Schippers & Homan, 2009; Schippers, West, & Dawson, 2010). However, this team process should also depend on the extent to which its individual members are naturally inclined to engage in risky or conservative decision making. Along such lines, a growing body of behavioral research points in the direction of regulatory focus - that is, the extent to which people are predisposed towards a promotion focus (on risky decision making aimed at achieving gains) or prevention focus (on vigilant decision making aimed at avoiding 5 losses) (Bryant & Dunford, 2008; Förster, Higgins, & Bianco, 2003; Higgins, 1997). For the present study, we therefore put forward that the extent to which teams set raw-material inventory levels, develop capacity and production plans, and set end-product inventory levels is influenced by the extent to which the team collectively engages in reflexivity, and the extent to which the team members as a whole are focused on promotion or prevention. Reflexivity and regulatory focus not only steer the extent to which a team sets inventory levels that are either too high or too low -- or capacity and production plans that are either too tight or too slack, but also influence a team's operating performance. The current study makes the following contributions. First, it is one of the first to address behavioral supply chain decision making at the team level, thereby covering new grounds in the emerging field of behavioral operations management. Second, and related to this, it presents team reflexivity as a novel key factor influencing the decision making process as well as the outcome of team supply chain management decisions. Third, it expands existing research on team decision making (De Dreu et al., 2008), team-situation interaction (Schippers et al., 2010) and regulatory focus (Higgins, 1997; Higgins, 1998) by exploring (a) the relatively understudied topic how motivational team composition can influence information processing and decision making at the team level; and (b) the relationship between team reflexivity, team decision making and team performance, and the way in which this relationship is moderated by a team's regulatory focus. We start by giving insight in the context of the study, namely supply chain management. HYPOTHESES DEVELOPMENT Supply Chain Management A supply chain is a network that transforms raw materials into distributed products. Managing a supply chain involves complex activities to continuously balance supply and demand between and within partnerships (Hult et al., 2004). Supply chain performance -- or the ability to 6 balance supply and demand -- is strongly connected to operating and firm performance (Hendricks & Singhal, 2003), and mismatches between supply and demand are known to destroy shareholder wealth. For instance, failure to meet demand in a timely manner -- because of a lack of end-product inventory -- may lead to higher costs due to express deliveries or overtime production, or cause loss of revenues, reputation and credibility (Hendricks & Singhal, 2005a, 2005b). Excessive stocks, on the other hand, may among others lead to write-offs or extreme inventory holding costs (Hendricks & Singhal, 2009). Supply chain management thus involves a balancing act between the risk of understocking (carrying too little inventory) and the risk of overstocking (carrying too much inventory). Importantly, when it comes to the management of a supply chain, the key supply chain decisions are usually made in decision making groups rather than by individuals (Hult et al., 2004). Given the complexity inherent to supply chain management, those teams that manage the supply chain business process constantly face a huge series of highly uncertain and variable decisions. Typically, such decisions are made in a Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) business process, in which the team as a whole needs to come up with an executable sales and operations plan to match supply and demand. This is a complex procedure, in which the decision making team considers an array of supply chain management issues such as demand forecasting, product development, promotions, supplier selection, raw material inventory planning, quality control, and finished goods inventory planning (how much to stock). Arguably some of the more vital decisions in this process concern raw material inventory planning, capacity and production planning, and finished goods inventory planning. Inventory decisions involve the earlier introduced balancing act between under- and overstocking that seems to be a defining feature of supply chain management. That is, in setting raw material inventory levels, the trade-off is between the risk not to be capable of producing due to stock-outs versus the risk of obsolescence 7 and high inventory holding costs due to overstock. Capacity planning in that process refers to such decisions as the number of machines and the number of shifts, whereas production planning concerns what to produce when and by which quantities. Jointly, capacity and production planning cover the production reliability within an S&OP business process - i.e., the extent to which planned capacity and production are effective to meet demand from finished goods inventory for a whole range of products in a certain period. Finally, the ultimate measure for successful performance in this S&OP business process is simply financial - how many revenues does the team generate in the end? Summarizing, the S&OP business process can be regarded as a very complicated form of team decision making on a huge series of highly uncertain and variable decisions. Next, we will discuss the role of team reflexivity in the S&OP decision making process. Reflexivity, Inventory Decisions, Production Reliability and Team Performance Team reflexivity is defined as the extent to which group members overtly reflect upon, and communicate about the group's objectives, strategies (e.g., decision-making) and processes and make changes accordingly (e.g., communication; West, 2000). Recently, research has shown that motivated information processing in the form of team reflexivity is of vital importance in decision-making, largely because it can yield the motivation within a team to identify, discuss, and eventually diminish errors and biases in team decision making (Schippers, Edmondson, & West, 2011; Schippers & Homan, 2009; Schippers et al., 2010). The Motivated Information Processing in Groups (MPIG) model (De Dreu et al., 2008) argues that decision quality and team performance in cooperative groups benefit from epistemic motivation -- the willingness to expend effort to gain an accurate and rich understanding of the world, including the team's task and context. This may be especially true for certain teams, such as teams involved in highly ambiguous tasks (De Dreu & Beersma, forthcoming). Building on the MIPG framework (De 8 Dreu, 2007; De Dreu et al., 2008; Hinsz et al., 1997), we suggest that high quality team decisions and subsequent improved (financial) performance is more likely to occur in teams that consciously reflect on the decision making process and demands they face. The reason for this is that such teams will process information regarding supply chain management decisions more fully and accurately, increasing the chance that they will improve the quality of the decisions. Consequently, these teams will improve their (financial) outcomes (West, 1996). Prior research has indeed consistently found that reflexivity is positively related to subjective as well as objective measures of team performance (Carter & West, 1998; Giles Hirst, Mann, Bain, PirolaMerlo, & Richter, 2004; Schippers, Den Hartog, Koopman, & Wienk, 2003; Somech, 2006; Tjosvold, Tang, & West, 2004). For example, Carter and West (1998) found in a study among nineteen BBC production teams that reflexivity predicted team effectiveness. Also, a study among three-person experimental groups showed that teams in the reflexivity condition performed better than teams in the control condition (Gurtner, Tschan, Semmer, & Nägele, 2007), whereas a field study among 59 work teams showed that team reflexivity mediated the (moderated) relationship between diversity and team performance, commitment, and satisfaction (Schippers et al., 2003). However, the mediating effects through which this effect on performance occurs, has only recently received research attention, showing that a shared vision (Schippers, Den Hartog, Koopman, & van Knippenberg, 2008), and shared task representations mediate (van Ginkel, Tindale, & van Knippenberg, 2009) between team reflexivity and team performance. Furthermore, team reflexivity has been shown to improve information elaboration and team decision making (van Ginkel et al., 2009). However, the relationship between decision making and team performance in a supply chain management context has received far less research attention up to now. In the current research we propose that team reflexivity can have a positive influence on the S&OP decision making process. To be precise, we hypothesize that team 9 reflexivity is positively related to the quality of raw material inventory decisions, production reliability (i.e. the operations process) and in turn to team performance. Furthermore, we propose that both team decision making with respect to inventory level, as well as production reliability mediate between team reflexivity and team performance. Hypothesis 1. Team reflexivity is positively related to the quality of team raw material inventory decisions, production reliability, and ultimately team performance. Hypothesis 2. Raw material inventory decisions and production reliability both partially and sequentially mediate team reflexivity and team performance. Regulatory Focus as Moderator Research into self-regulation is currently gaining momentum as a framework to understand how intuition and cognitive heuristics influence decision-making processes (Boekaerts, Maes, & Karoly, 2005) and organizational team behavior (Brockner & Higgins, 2001; Kark & Van Dijk, 2007; Neubert, Kacmar, Carlson, Chonko, & Roberts, 2008). According to regulatory focus theory, people differ in their motivational orientation on self-regulation, and in the realization of desired end-states (Higgins, 1997). Specifically, people can have a promotion focus on advancement, growth and accomplishment, or a prevention focus on security, safety, and responsibility (Crowe & Higgins, 1997; Higgins, 1998). Promotion-focused people over the whole display risky processing styles in which gains, hits and successes are actively approached, whereas prevention-focused people generally display a vigilant processing style in which losses, errors and failures are actively avoided (Crowe & Higgins, 1997; Higgins, 1997; Higgins, 1998; Liberman, Molden, Idson, & Higgins, 2001). Research has for instance shown that promotionfocused individuals generally make more speedy and less accurate decisions than preventionfocused individuals (Förster et al., 2003), and also more readily engage in more risky and exploratory processing styles than prevention-focused individuals (Friedman & Förster, 2001). 10 Furthermore, even though regulatory focus can be situationally induced, people can also can be more promotion or prevention focused by inclination, and as a result of prior experiences in life (Higgins & Silberman, 1998; Lockwood, Jordan, & Kunda, 2002). Regulatory focus can also serve as an important moderator for the accuracy of team performance in team supply chain management decisions. As stated in the introduction, the typical S&OP supply chain business process confronts a decision making team with a large number of uncertainties and variabilities. That is, the decision making team needs to develop a sales and operations plan that specifies the purchasing of supplies, capacity planning (a complicated series of decisions among others involving the number of shifts, overtime, scheduled maintenance), production planning (what to produce when and by how much), and end-product inventory planning (how much to stock). Building on the vast body of regulatory focus literature, we expect that teams characterized by a high overall promotion focus will more strongly and radically seek gains in novel opportunities in an S&OP supply chain business process - especially when collective efforts are perceived as possibly yielding gains, whereas teams with a high overall prevention focus will more likely act in vigilant and conservative fashion in an S&OP supply chain business process - especially when collective efforts could possibly yield losses. However, the precise way in which regulatory focus thus influences actual team performance in this complex S&OP supply chain business process should also depend on the level of reflexivity within the team. This observation is fueled by prior research that identifies reflexivity as a vital factor for predicting performance for teams with complex jobs - that is, evaluating and reflecting on non-routine tasks that involve high levels of uncertainty and variability seems to nurture team performance under such circumstances (West, 1996). Because reflexivity refers to the extent to which group members overtly reflect upon, and communicate about the group's objectives, strategies and processes (West, Garrod, & Carletta, 11 1997), it may render accessible especially those regulatory foci that are most salient within the team before the team makes adaptations to their S&OP supply chain process. That is, a high level of reflexivity within the team may cause the team as a whole to become aware of those aspirations and collective goals that are dominant within the team. To be precise, it has been widely documented that promotion and prevention focused people differ in the hopes and aspirations that they wish to obtain: promotion-focused people typically strive for reaching a positive (success) rather than a negative end-state (non-fulfillment), just as prevention-focused people strive for reaching a positive (non-losses) rather than a negative end-state (losses) (Molden, Lee, & Higgins, 2008). In a complicated S&OP team process, a high (vs. moderate or low) level of reflexivity could specifically serve to facilitate the realization of these positive rather than negative regulatory end-states, with the net result that the group remains focused on those inventory decisions that contribute to the realization of the desired end-state of the team as a whole - leading to good team performance. Moreover, because prior research has shown that moderators on the reflexivity-performance relation can have non-linear effects and differ on low, medium and high levels of reflexivity (Schippers, West, & Dawson, 2011), we specifically predict a curvilinear interaction between reflexivity and regulatory focus on team performance. The regulatory fit perspective would predict that team processes and regulatory focus will combine to predict team outcomes. Given the nature of the S&OP business simulation that we use in the current research - that is, the game requires participants to decrease the excessively high stock levels (a default starting point of the game) -we propose that for teams with a low promotion focus, a U-shaped relation is expected with high reflexivity, while for teams with a high promotion focus an inverted U-shape will occur, that will likely be negative especially when combined with high reflexivity. That is, such teams will use reflexivity to strengthen their initial idea that they should "go for it" instead of lowering their raw material inventory level. For 12 prevention focus, the exact opposite holds: when prevention is high, we predict that a U-shape relationship will exist between reflexivity and performance, whereas we expect an inverted Ushape relationship for low prevention focus. Although empirical tests are lacking, several authors have indeed suggested that that team reflexivity may strengthen initially held beliefs, even if those are wrong, as long as they are shared between team members (Tindale & Kameda, 2000; van Ginkel et al., 2009). We thus hypothesize: Hypothesis 3: The performance of teams with a high promotion focus will increase when reflexivity is moderate, but will decrease when reflexivity is high, whereas the performance of teams with a low promotion focus will decrease when reflexivity is moderate, but increase when reflexivity is high. Hypothesis 4: The performance of teams with a high prevention focus will decrease when reflexivity is moderate, but will increase when reflexivity is high, whereas the performance of teams with a low prevention focus will increase when reflexivity is moderate, but decrease when reflexivity is high. A core principle of chronic regulatory focus is that essentially four combinations of regulatory foci are possible: (1) high promotion/ high prevention focus, (2) high promotion/low prevention focus, (3) low promotion/high prevention focus, and (4) low promotion/high prevention focus (Lockwood et al., 2002). To the best of our knowledge, the combination of the two regulatory foci in teams has never been investigated before, but in line with the argument developed above, it seems likely that these four combinations of regulatory focus within the team will have different effects on the way in which teams reflect upon information and make subsequent decisions in their collective S&OP process. That is, reflexivity will strengthen the benefits inherent to regulatory foci only if the desired end-states for those two foci are in line with the task demands within the S&OP game. To be precise, when both the promotion and 13 prevention focus are high within the team, the level of reflexivity will be unrelated to performance, because the desired end states (reaching success vs. avoiding losses) associated with the two foci have similar consequences. Likewise, when both the promotion and prevention focus are within the team, high and low levels of reflexivity will be ineffective, while at moderate levels of reflexivity performance will be moderate. Also, when promotion is high within the team, but prevention focus is low, the effect of reflexivity will again be unrelated to performance, largely because the dominant desired end-state itself (reaching success) will drive the decision making process within the team. But, when promotion is low within the team and prevention high, reflexivity can reinforce team performance, because then the team will engage in thoughtful and careful decision regarding inventory level and (financial) performance -especially at high levels of reflexivity. We propose that high reflexivity will show a U-shaped relationship with performance for teams with a combination of high prevention focus and low promotion focus. Such teams will be inclined to decrease their raw material inventory levels and thus improve performance, especially at high levels of team reflexivity, while at medium reflexivity a slight decrease in performance will occur. For teams low on both foci, an inverted U-shape relationship is expected, such that we would expect that both low and high levels of reflexivity are negatively related to team performance, with a slight increase at medium levels of reflexivity. For promotion focus, we expect to find the opposite patterns. The above described relations will be opposite when raw material inventory level is taken as the dependent variable. This leads to the following hypotheses: Hypothesis 5: Regulatory focus moderates the relationship between team reflexivity and team performance in such a way that for teams low on promotion/high on prevention, this 14 relationship follows a U-shape, whereas the reversed pattern exists for teams low on promotion/low on prevention. Hypothesis 6: Regulatory focus moderates the relationship between raw material inventory level and team performance in such a way that for teams low on promotion/high on prevention, this relationship follows an inverted U-shape, whereas the reversed pattern exists for teams low on promotion/low on prevention. Hypothesis 7: Regulatory focus moderates the relationship between team reflexivity and raw material inventory decisions, in such a way that for teams low on promotion/high on prevention, this relationship follows an inverted U-shape, whereas the reversed pattern exists for teams low on promotion/low on prevention. METHOD Participants and procedure The initial sample consisted of a total of 376 people distributed over 94 four-person teams who participated in an S&OP (Sales and Operations Planning) supply chain business simulation (see below). Participants were professionals with direct or indirect experience in supply chain management, including general managers, operational managers, commercial managers, financial managers, logistics managers, supply chain managers, planners, purchasing managers, transport managers, warehouse managers, production managers, and marketing/sales managers. Their main motivation to participate in the game was to learn. Participation was completely voluntary. Those teams that participated received feedback on their team level scores and on the meaning of their measures. The participants had to pay a participation fee to the company that developed, ran and supported the simulation game. The response rate for the online survey was 83% (258 persons from 82 teams). One team was excluded from further analysis, because they never finished the game and thus did not receive end-scores on the dependent variables. This resulted in a final 15 sample that consisted of 254 persons from 81 teams. Of these respondents, 76.4% was male and the average age was 33.7 years (SD = 9.42). 81.5% of the respondents had the Dutch nationality, the remaining respondents had American (18.5%) nationality; 39.8% held, at least, a bachelor's degree and 2.7% had earned an additional advanced degree or professional qualification. Task Work simulations in the form of management games are frequently used in organizations for development purposes of managerial talent as they offer participants meaningful feedback to improve their work-related behavior and skills (Anseel, Lievens, & Schollaert, 2009; Seijts, Latham, Tasa, & Latham, 2004; Thornton & Cleveland, 1990). The game used here was called the Fresh Connection Game and included an interactive, computer-based simulation based on events in the production and supply of fresh juices to customers. In this realistic S&OP supply chain business simulation, a decision making team considers issues such as its sales and operations plan regarding the purchasing of supplies, capacity planning (a complicated series of decisions among others involving the number of shifts, overtime, scheduled maintenance), production planning (what to produce when and by how much), and inventory planning (how much to stock). In this particular case, the team was divided into four roles: a supply chain vicepresident (responsible for supply chain strategy and control decisions), a purchasing vicepresident (responsible for the choice of suppliers, supplier agreements etc.), an operations vicepresident (concentrating on the organization of operations and the warehouse), and a sales vicepresident (responsible for decisions on customer service, the priorities of orders, and promotional activities). Care was taken to ensure the realism of the simulation, including role descriptions, background information, graphics, pictures, e-mail simulation, organizational charts, and interactive activities. The game itself took place in seven decision periods of one week each, 16 where one week supposedly represented half a year in real life. During a first trial round, teams were able to familiarize themselves with the game (and the performance in this round was not included in the final results), and then the real competition started. The competition itself lasted six weeks. The team that scored the highest return on investment (ROI) after those six weeks won the game. As to the design of The Fresh Connection, the simulation started with a video message from the CEO, who gave general information about the company - a fruit-juice maker active in the production and supply of fresh juices to customers - and its challenges and who stressed the urgency to improve supply chain operations. The evolution of this company in the simulation was predetermined. That is, in the first period, teams were informed that things were not going well at all for the fruit-juice maker, evidenced by excessive stocks, substantial losses, dissatisfied customers, and disgruntled suppliers. The teams had to evaluate a considerable number of strategies for addressing the several supply chain problems in order to steer the company through this phase. In the course of the game, the teams received e-mail messages about new opportunities and upcoming events, such as new customers, or the introduction of a new product. For instance, in the second period, a new product was introduced in the form of PET bottles. This element was introduced to create another potential supply chain dilemma: the inventory of these bottles was very costly (because these bottles were more spacious than the carton containers), and would cause problems in later stages of the game. Not all emails were sent to all team members; Like in reality, the team members had proprietary information. In the fifth and sixth period, participants were increasingly confronted with the growing complexities of the supply chain, and proper management of the various uncertainties and variabilities became a principal challenge. Following each decision period, the teams received feedback about their results, and how their team performance was related to the other teams participating in the game. Those eight teams that 17 received the highest scores after the seventh period were invited to play the final period in a separate event on one location. This task was used for three reasons. First, management games are frequently used for learning and development purposes, because they offer participants a high degree of component, dynamic and coordinative complexity (Anseel et al., 2009; Thornton & Cleveland, 1990; see also Seijts et al., 2004, for a similar argument). Second, the task complexity and the interplay between and cooperation of the team members in the simulation game would most likely yield behavioral differences between teams as a function of team reflexivity and regulatory focus. Third, the simulation was highly realistic, related to actual work settings. The game was challenging even for people working in this area1. Measures Team performance. Performance was assessed by the team score of return on investment (ROI) of the company, a weighted average of the score, where the last two rounds were most important in determining the final score for the team by the game provider. The scores on ROI varied from -.46 to .17, M = .034, SD = .11. Inventory decisions. Team decision making regarding inventory level was measured as the amount of raw product the teams had in stock. In general, a high stock level was bad for performance. Overstocking was more of an issue than understocking, since at default the inventory level was too high before the game started. The score used here is also the weighted average used by the game provider in determining the highest scoring teams. The scores on inventory level varied from 1.92 to 8.10, M = 3.75, SD = 1.10. Production reliability. The extent to which teams maintained a good production reliability (i.e. operations) was also measured by the weighted score used by the game provider. This weighted scores varied from .10 to 1.0, M = .62, SD = .25. 18 Reflexivity. Reflexivity was measured using a five-item scale from the reflexivity measure of Schippers et al., 2007, adapted to fit the game context. Example items are: "During the game, we stopped to assess whether the team was on the right track," and "We reflected on what we could learn from prior decisions we made" (1 = strongly disagree, 5 = strongly agree). Regulatory focus. Regulatory focus was measured using a 6-item version of the scale of Lockwood et al. (2002). Promotion focus was measured using three items: "Overall, I am more oriented toward achieving success than preventing failure", "In general, I am focused on achieving positive outcomes in my life", and "I see myself as someone who is primarily striving to reach my "ideal self" - to fulfill my hopes, wishes, and aspirations." (1 = strongly disagree, 5 = strongly agree). Prevention focus was measured using three items: "I am more oriented toward preventing losses than I am toward achieving gains", "I frequently think about how I can prevent failures in my life", "I see myself as someone who is primarily striving to become the self I "ought" to be - to fulfill my duties, responsibilities, and obligations"(1 = strongly disagree, 5 = strongly agree). Control variables. Since all groups consisted of four team members, there was no need to control for group size. We entered several control variables in different sets, in order not to lose too much power. We controlled for age, gender, supply chain management knowledge, experience in playing management simulations, hours per week spent on the game, and familiarity -- i.e., how well the team members knew each other before the start of the game. We also controlled for the standard deviation of promotion and prevention focus. None of these variables changed our pattern of results. We therefore proceeded to test our hypotheses without these variables in order to preserve degrees of freedom and to minimize the chances for a Type I error. 19 Response bias. To check for a possible response bias, we performed t-tests on the two dependent variables, raw material inventory level and ROI. These tests revealed no differences in inventory level (t = -1.12, ns) and production reliability (t = -0.02, ns). However, a significant difference was found between the participating teams and the teams that did not fill out the questionnaire. The non-participating teams scored significantly lower than the participating teams on team performance, ROI (t = 5.46, p < .001). According to the game provider, this was due to motivation: All teams received weekly feedback on their scores and relative standing, and teams with a low score were probably less motivated to fill out a questionnaire. Although this significant difference may point to a response bias, we firmly believe that it does not speak against our findings: with lower scoring teams excluded from the analysis, the variance in ROI in our sample is limited to medium and higher scoring teams only. This effect may have reduced rather than enhanced our power for detecting significant relationships. It stands therefore to reason that this difference has led to a more conservative test of our hypotheses. RESULTS Confirmatory factor analysis and level of analysis In order to test whether a three-factor model gives a parsimonious fit of our model, we conducted confirmatory factor analyses. We ran CFA analyses including the independent variables we measured with our questionnaire (promotion focus, prevention focus, and reflexivity) as separate factors. This procedure produced the following fit indices: Chi-square = 85.42, df = 41, CFI=.95, AGFI=.91, RMSEA =.061, CI lower 90%=.43, CI upper 90% =.63. In the next step we loaded the three variables onto one construct. This procedure produced the following fit indices: Chi-square = 176.36, df = 44, CFI=.86, RMSEA =.11, CI lower 90%=.093, CI upper 90% =.13. Thus our three-factor model was a superior fit to the data. 20 With respect to our level of analysis, for reflexivity, the ICC and rwg(j) values (see Table 1) indicate that this is a team level construct, and was therefore aggregated to the team level. The ICC values of promotion and prevention focus indicate that these are individual level (below .12), while the rwg(j) values point in the team level direction. Prior research indicates that the theoretically appropriate operationalization of personality variables depends on the team task (e.g.,Barrick, Stewart, Neubert, & Mount, 1998; Homan et al., 2008; LePine, 2003), and following these authors’ recommendations, we examined the nature of the task to determine how regulatory focus should be aggregated to the group level. This aggregation procedure is rooted in the theoretical work of Steiner, 1966; Steiner, 1972, distinguishing between disjunctive, conjunctive, and additive tasks. Of these three task categories, the additive model best represents the team task used in our study (for a full description of the task, see method section). Each member could access a certain set of information common to all team members; however, he or she also had knowledge of certain aspects of the task that were specific to his or her role; that is, team member could choose to share specific information with other team members (which almost all teams did), team members had an equal level of responsibility and an equal share of input into the team’s output. This additive task is fundamentally different from a disjunctive task, such as problem solving, where the team’s best member determines the output of the team. It is also different from a conjunctive task (e.g., mountain climbing), where the team’s weakest member determines the team’s output. Summarizing, if a team was to perform at a high level, all team members had to interact with each other, exchange information, and make decisions accordingly. Thus, in light of the additive nature of the task, we used the average (i.e. the mean; see also Barrick et al., 1998) of the team member’s scores to represent regulatory focus at the team level. As mentioned earlier, controlling for the aggregated standard deviation of regulatory focus did not change our pattern of results. 21 Descriptive Statistics As can be seen in Table 1, reflexivity was negatively related to inventory decisions (r = -.30; p < .01); positively to production reliability (r = .33, p< .01), promotion focus (r = .36, p < .01) and team performance (ROI, r = .40, p < .001), and unrelated to prevention focus ((r = .10, ns). Inventory decisions were negatively related to production reliability (r = -.41, p < .001) and team performance (r = -.47, p < .001), confirming the idea that for this simulation high inventory levels were detrimental for team performance, and that reflexive teams would have lower stock levels. Promotion focus was positively related to team performance (r = .25, p < .05), while there was a slight but insignificant positive relationship between team level prevention focus and team performance. Hypotheses Testing Hypotheses 1 and 2 predicted direct and mediating relationships. We tested these relationships through a series of regression analyses (see below). We expected to find a main effect of team reflexivity on team performance (Hypothesis 1). In addition, we predicted a number of mediational effects between team reflexivity and team performance of inventory decisions and production reliability (Hypothesis 2). To examine the sequential mediating roles of decision making and production reliability in the relationship between team reflexivity and team performance, three steps were followed, in line with the suggestions of Baron and Kenny (1986). First, we should demonstrate that there is a relationship between the antecedent and the consequence. A series of regression analyses showed significant relationships (see Figure 1). As predicted by Hypothesis 1, a relationship between team reflexivity and production reliability was found (β = .33, p < .01), as well as a relationship between team reflexivity and team performance (β = .40, p = .001). Second, the relationship between the antecedent and the mediator should be significant, as well as the relationship between the mediator and the consequence. A relationship 22 between team reflexivity and inventory decisions was indeed found (β = -.30, p < .01), as well as a relationship between inventory decisions and production reliability (β = -.41, p < .001). Furthermore, the mediator inventory level was positively related to team performance reflexivity, and the mediator production reliability was positively related to team performance (see Figure 1). Finally, the unique impact of the mediators (inventory decisions and production reliability) should be demonstrated. In line with this, our hierarchical regression analysis revealed that the betas of the simple main effects declined when inventory decisions was added to the equation (change in β from .40 to .23), supporting Hypothesis 2. Moreover, the beta values also declined and became non-significant when production reliability was added in the last step (change in β from .40 to .20; see Figure 2), corroborating Hypothesis 3. When production reliability was added to the equation, the relation between inventory decisions and team performance also declined (change in β from -47 to -.39. With respect to performance, we expected a partial mediational effect, as other variables besides these were also expected to influence team performance (see below for the test of the full model). We then performed Sobel tests in order to assess whether the decreases in the β 's of the hypothesized mediation models are significant (Goodman, 1960). For the relationship reflexivity - decision making - production reliability, the z-value was 2.11, p < .05. For the relationship decision making - production reliability - team performance the z-value was 2.49, p < .05. For the complete meditational chain reflexivity - decision making - production reliability - team performance the z-value was 1.92, p = .06. Our results thus suggest that team reflexivity is related to better decision making (lower inventory level) in teams, which is in turn related to increased production reliability. This is ultimately related to enhanced team performance (ROI) as proposed in Hypothesis 2, although the z-value for the complete chain was marginally significant. 23 Interactive Effects Before testing our predicted interactions, all continuous independent variables where mean-centered (Aiken & West, 1991). Hypothesis 3 predicted quadratic interactions between reflexivity, regulatory focus and team performance. Hierarchical regressions showed that besides the above tested main and mediating effects, the predicted curvilinear two-way interactions explained additional variance; β = .48, p < .01 for the reflexivity squared x prevention focus interaction and β = -.42, p < .01 for the reflexivity squared x promotion focus interaction. These findings showed a U-curve for high prevention focus and an inverted U-curve for low prevention focus. For promotion focus the relation was reversed; a slight inverted U-curve for high promotion focus and a slight U-curve for low promotion focus, while the two curves cross towards high reflexivity (see Figure 3 and 4). In general, these findings indicate that high reflexivity, high prevention focus and high promotion focus are most beneficial for performance. Hypothesis 4 predicted quadratic interactions between reflexivity, regulatory focus and team performance, as well as between inventory level decision making, regulatory focus and team performance. Hierarchical regressions showed that besides the abovementioned main, mediating effects and two-way interactions, the predicted curvilinear three-way interactions explained additional variance (β = -.44, p < .01) for the reflexivity squared*promotion* prevention focus interaction; (β = -.53, p < .01) for the inventory level squared*promotion* prevention focus interaction. The findings indicate that there are three kinds of combinations lead to better or worse team performance. First, the findings suggest that all teams benefit equally from a moderate level of reflexivity, all lines converge at moderate level (see Figure 4, 5 and 6). The teams that have the highest score on team performance are the teams that have a combination of low promotion/ high prevention/ high reflexivity. This suggests that reflexivity is better than just "go for it" as implied 24 by a high promotion focus. The combination of trying to prevent losses, while at the same time being highly reflexive, helps teams to gain a high ROI as indicator of team performance. The complimentary quadratic three-way interactions with dependent variable inventory level, showed that such teams indeed have a lower inventory level, which may have contributed to this high score, since lower inventory levels were in general related to higher performance (β = .57, p < .05); see Table 3 and Figure 7. As predicted, the lowest scores were achieved by teams with a combination of low prevention, low promotion, and low reflexivity. As can be seen in the complimentary 3-way interaction with inventory level as dependent variable, those teams had a relatively high inventory level. Interestingly, they also had a high inventory level at a high level of reflexivity, as opposed to a medium level of reflexivity. Middle of the road seemed to be teams with a combination of high promotion/high prevention, or a combination of high promotion/low prevention. Those teams had an average result regardless of level of reflexivity. The three-way interaction with inventory level as independent variable and team performance as dependent variable showed that those teams do get a relatively good performance at high level of inventory. DISCUSSION Theoretical Implications We proposed that team reflexivity and regulatory focus influence performance in Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) decision making, and that inventory, capacity and production planning decisions would mediate this relationship. In the present study, we tested and found these mediating effects, and also showed that team reflexivity and regulatory focus in interaction influence inventory decisions and return on investment (ROI) to the extent that the right fit between reflexivity and regulatory focus can positively boost a team’s decision making and performance. 25 The main contribution of our research lies in the fact that we show the viability of a behavioral approach to supply chain management at the team level. Our main findings clearly indicate that people in S&OP processes are influenced by cognitive-motivational factors that can make or break their performance in terms of ROI. This is consistent with a growing awareness in the field that behavioral biases are critical to people’s decision making and performance in operations management (e.g., Gino & Pisano, 2008). Moreover, our study offers confirmation for an earlier observation by Bendoly and colleagues (2006) that behavioral issues in the field of operations management are especially likely to arise in supply chain management practices, in which task requirements “involve reliance on multiple parties across different organizations, with different perspectives, capabilities, objectives, and information availability” (p. 749). In our study we directly tackled this issue by showing for decision making teams in a stylized S&OP constellation that the information processing skills of team members, together with their joint foci on promotion or prevention, influence team supply chain management decisions. Second, and related to the above, the present study points to the importance of team reflexivity as a factor influencing the outcome of team supply chain management decisions. We found that reflexivity -- together with regulatory focus – exerts an influence on team performance in an S&OP setting, in which the team as a whole needs to produce a feasible sales and operations plan to match supply and demand. That is, high levels of reflexivity positively influence team performance when teams are low on promotion and high on prevention, and low levels of reflexivity negatively influence team performance when teams are low on promotion and prevention focus. Of particular relevance to operations management research is our finding that team reflexivity is not always linearly related to team performance, but may be stronger for teams with a regulatory focus that fits the team context. This extends earlier work of Schippers et al., 2010, in showing that team reflexivity is not always linearly and positively related to team 26 performance, but also adds further evidence for the role of team reflexivity in team decision and performance (West, 1996; see also Schippers, Den Hartog, & Koopman, 2007), thus highlighting reflexivity as a useful framework to guide theoretical development in the area of behavioral operations management. In related fashion, the present research expands prior research on team decision making (De Dreu et al., 2008) and regulatory focus (Higgins, 1997, 1998) by exploring how the composition of a team in terms of underlying motivational focus can influence the willingness of individual team members to processing information and make decisions. Up till now, the role of individual differences in regulatory focus for team decision making and performance in general had often been theoretically assumed (cf., Higgins, 2000), but hardly been put to the test. Importantly, in the present study we did so, and found that the effects of team reflexivity are moderated by regulatory focus within the team context. Our results suggest that both the team context and regulatory focus are boundary conditions for the relationship between team reflexivity and team performance in general and in the specific S&OP setting. In doing so, we extend the literatures on team reflexivity, regulatory focus and behavioral operations management. Managerial Implications Practitioners and the popular press have focused on team learning and reflection as a panacea for team decision making and performance (Boud, Keogh, & Walker, 1985; Gray, 2007; Senge, 1990), and up to a point our analysis corroborates this conclusion. The relationships observed in our study are complex, but in short they do place a premium on team reflexivity in promoting team decision making and performance. Our analysis also provided two important qualifications to this conclusion however. 27 First we show that this relationship is highly dependent on the combination of regulatory foci in teams. It is the combination of team reflexivity, regulatory focus as well as the decision making context that determine the quality of the decision making process and performance (Stam, van Knippenberg, & Wisse, 2010). An emphasis on reflexivity to enhance team performance should therefore be combined with the regulatory focus that fits the team context. On the individual level, this could include the consideration of regulatory focus in personnel selection and in investing in employee development programs that build employees' tendency to reflect on work-related issues, for instance through team leadership promoting team reflexivity (Schippers et al., 2008) Second, as return on investment and inventory levels are crucial in supply chain management, and in general to the organizations' quest for competitive advantage, factors contributing to the optimizing of factors that hinder or foster team work in this respect are important. The current study highlights the crucial interacting role of regulatory focus on the team reflexivity - decision making/performance relationship, thereby emphasizing the role of team level disposition and team process in interaction with the team context. It is the combination of team level regulatory focus, team processes and the decision making context that yields the stronger association with team level (financial) performance. However, reflexivity may also be time-consuming, and especially for high performing teams, it can be questioned whether the investment is always worth the pay-off (Bunderson & Sutcliffe, 2003; Schippers et al. , 2009). The present findings suggest that a targeted use of reflexivity may be effective - particularly when teams face an environment that calls for a prevention focus (i.e. too high stock levels) in combination with a high prevention focus and a low promotion focus. An important management implication could thus be that teams facing conditions that call for a prevention focus, should be trained to be reflexive while at the same time a prevention focus could be induced in such teams. 28 Whether at the same time a low promotion focus can be induced is an important avenue for future research. LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH An important strength of the current research lies in the fact that we used objective measures for decision-making and performance (ROI) that were the same across all teams. However, we did not directly measure those mechanisms that could be held accountable for linking reflexivity to team decision making and performance – in other words, we do not know what was actually discussed in those teams. Future research could more directly tap into those team dynamics with the help of video recordings of team interaction processes, and the coding of these recordings (Weingart, 1997). Furthermore, in our research we examined chronic differences in people’s regulatory focus, while research in laboratory settings has shown that regulatory focus can also be situationally induced by framing situations in terms of gains (for promotion) or losses (for prevention) (e.g., Cropanzano, Paddock, Rupp, Bagger, & Baldwin, 2008; Crowe & Higgins, 1997; Friedman & Förster, 2001). However, little is known about how to influence regulatory focus at the team level, and for a prolonged period of time in a field setting, rather than a short-lived manipulation in a lab context. Therefore an important avenue for future research would be to more thoroughly explore those contextual factors or managerial practices that may trigger a team focus on promotion or prevention depending on the decision making context (Avnet & Higgins, 2007; Zhou, Hirst, & Shipton, 2010). Also, we need not limit the scope of our attention to differences in regulatory focus alone: we may further advance our understanding of the S&OP team process by also considering other promising personality differences that have shown to relate to team performance, such as learning versus performance orientation (Hirst, van Knippenberg, & Zhou, 2009; LePine, 2005; Porter, 2005). Finally, because our teams did not have a formal leader, we could not delve into the issue what sort of leadership 29 can possibly boost or hamper team reflexivity in S&OP setting. For instance, the precise role of a leader in triggering a promotion focus or a prevention focus among their team members could not be assessed (Kark & Van Dijk, 2007; Stam, Knippenberg, & Wisse, 2010). Future research could address this leadership issue in greater detail. CONCLUSION Managers often face the dual challenge of selecting team members that make optimal decisions and managing the team context to render it more conducive to optimal decision making and (financial) performance. Our study directly addresses this challenge, identifying the combination of reflexivity and regulatory focus as a possible route to more optimal decision making and performance, in showing that (a) these relationships are complex and curvilinear, and (b) the level of reflexivity level should match the level of promotion/prevention focus as well as the team context. 30 REFERENCES Aiken, J. S., & West, S. G. (1991). Multiple regression: Testing and interpreting interactions. New York: Sage. Anseel, F., Lievens, F., & Schollaert, E. (2009). Reflection as a strategy to enhance task performance after feedback. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 110, 23-35. Avnet, T., & Higgins, E. T. (2007). 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Jackson (Eds.), Creating tomorrow's organizations: A handbook for future research in organizational behavior. (pp. 293316). Chicester: John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Zhou, Q., Hirst, G., & Shipton, H. (2010). Examining the relationship between regulatory focus and creativity in a field setting. Working paper, ISCTE-Instituto Universitário de Lisboa, Portugal. 38 FOOTNOTES 1 For instance, a supply chain director of a large plastic tubes manufacturer commented: “This game shows, in an extraordinary realistic way, how functional decisions affect the chain as a whole. While we used to play the 'beer game' with our colleagues in the chain, we now have the new standard for it: The Fresh Connection.” 39 TABLE 1. Means, Standard Deviations, Aggregate Level Intercorrelations, and Alpha’s (N = 81 teams) Variable M SD ICC(1) ICC(2) Rwg(j) 1 2 3 4 1 Reflexivity 4.21 .50 .34 .82 .87 - 2 Inventory level 3.75 1.10 - - - -.30** - 3 Production reliability .62 .25 - - - .33** -.41*** - 4 Promotion focus 3.91 .37 .05 .29 .84 .36** -.15 .16 - 5 Prevention focus 3.08 .48 .03 .22 .67 .10 .02 .02 .22* - 6 Team performance a .03 .11 - - - .40*** -.47*** .54*** .25* .18 Note: † p < .10; * p < .05; ** p < .01; two-tailed; Dashes indicate that data were not applicable. Cronbach’s alphas are on the diagonal; a ROI (return on investment) 5 6 - 40 TABLE 2 Results of Regression Analyses with Dependent Variable: Team Performance (ROI) Model 1 2 3 4 5 β β β β β .11 .18 .24 .21* -.24* -.20 -.06 . -.01 Step 1: Main and mediating effects Reflexivity .17 Inventory level -.26** Production reliability .36** .37** .42*** .37*** .35*** Promotion focus .06 .14 .31** .40*** .36*** Prevention focus .15 .04 -.10 .01 .03 Promo x Prev -.22 -.28* .14 .17 Refl x Promo -.11 -.23 -.35** -.39*** Refl x Prev -.20 -.08 .14 .11 Refl x Promo x Prev .39** .31* .14 .05 Reflexivity squared -.16 .01 .01 Refl squared x Promo -.41** -.36* -.42** Refl squared x Prev .35* .49*** .48*** -.71*** -.44** .13 .25* Step 2: Linear interactions reflexivity Step 3: Non-linear effects reflexivity Refl squared x Promo x Prev Step 4: Linear moderations inventory Inventory x Promo 41 Inventory x Prev .10 .08 Inventory x Promo x Prev -.25 -.14 Step 5: Non-linear effects inventory Inventory squared -.12 Invent squared x Promo .17 Invent squared x Prev .03 Invent squared x Promo x Prev ∆R2 due to step -.53* .42*** .10** .15*** .04† .05* Note: †p < .10; *p < .05; **p < .01; ***p < .001; two-tailed; total R = .87 for model 5; 42 TABLE 3 Results of Regression Analysis for Hypothesis Tests with Dependent Variable: Inventory Level 1 2 3 β β β Model Main and mediating effects Reflexivity -.28* -.25* -.22 † Promotion focus -.07 -.11 -.22 Prevention focus .07 .08 .03 Promo x Prev .19 -.12 Refl x Promo -.02 .07 Refl x Prev -.13 -.31† Refl x Promo x Prev -.06 .10 Linear moderations reflexivity Non-linear effects reflexivity Reflexivity squared .12 Refl squared x Promo .09 Refl squared x Prev -.29 Refl squared x Promo x Prev .57* ∆R2 due to step .09* Note: †p < .10; *p < .05; two-tailed; total R = .48 for model 3; .03 .10 † 43 FIGURE 1 Research model with the hypothesized direct, indirect and moderating effects in the current study Regulatory focus Promotion X Prevention Team reflexivity (squared) Inventory level decisions (squared) Team performance Production reliability 44 FIGURE 2 Main and mediating relationships of reflexivity with team performance (N = 81 teams)a .40***/.20* .33**/.23* Team reflexivity -.41*** Inventory level decisions b -.35** Production reliability .36** Team performance -.47***/-.29** a Numbers above the arrows represent standardized coefficients (betas). Betas in bold are based on regression equations including the connecting mediator; b Inventory level: a low score is related to better team performance Note: * p < .05, ** p < .01, *** p < .001; two-tailed tests 45 FIGURE 3 Curvilinear two-way interaction of team level prevention focus on the team reflexivity squared — team performance relationship 7 ROI 6 5 4 Low Prevention focus 3 High Prevention focus 2 1 Low Reflexivity High Reflexivity 46 FIGURE 4 Curvilinear two-way interaction of team level promotion focus on the team reflexivity squared — team performance relationship 7 ROI 6 5 4 Low Promotion Focus 3 High Promotion Focus 2 1 Low Reflexivity High Reflexivity 47 FIGURE 5 Curvilinear three-way interaction of team level regulatory focus on the team reflexivity squared — team performance relationship 0.5 0.4 High promotion focus, High prevention focus High promotion focus, Low prevention focus Low promotion focus, High prevention focus Low promotion focus, Low prevention focus 0.3 Return on Investment 0.2 0.1 0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 Low Reflexivity High 48 FIGURE 6 Curvilinear three-way interaction of team level regulatory focus on the inventory level squared — team performance relationship 0.5 0.4 High promotion focus, High prevention focus 0.3 Return on Investment 0.2 High promotion focus, Low prevention focus 0.1 0 Low promotion focus, High prevention focus -0.1 -0.2 Low promotion focus, Low prevention focus -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 Low Inventory level High 49 FIGURE 7 Curvilinear three-way interaction of team level regulatory focus on the team reflexivity squared— inventory level relationship 7 High promotion focus, High prevention focus High promotion focus, Low prevention focus Low promotion focus, High prevention focus Low promotion focus, Low prevention focus Inventory level 6 5 4 3 2 1 Low Reflexivity High
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