The X Internet:
Leveling the playing field for
businesses in developing nations
Navi Radjou
Senior Analyst
Eroica Howard
Research Assistant to the CEO
Waves of Internet innovation
?????
Web
Internet
users
Telnet
Gopher
WAIS
Email
FTP
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Theme
The X Internet will let
businesses in developing
nations do more with
what they have
Agenda
 What’s behind the X Internet?
 What is the X Internet?
 Early adopters of the X Internet in
developing nations
 When will these changes take hold?
What’s behind the X Internet?
Bandwidth lags other technology
improvements
1981
1991
2001
CAGR
Computing
4 MHz
8088
25 MHz
80486
2,000 MHz
Pentium 4
50%
Storage
0.1 MB
floppies
30 MB
hard drive
100,000 MB
hard drive
62%
Bandwidth
0.3 Kbps
modem
9.6 Kbps
modem
300 Kbps
share of T1 line*
27%
* Though most PCs and servers ship with 100 Mbps
networking interfaces, actual Internet throughput
remains limited by corporate Internet connections
Bandwidth continues to lag processing
and storage technologies
1000000
160000
60000
30000
10000
4000
3200
100000
10000
1000
500
120
100
40
10
1
1975
10 9.6
2.4
1
1980
1985
1000
100
33
20 28
19.2
600
Moore’s Law
300
56
2
1990
1995
2000
2005
Performance (MIPS)
Storage (Mbytes)
Bandwidth (Kbps)
Today’s “last-mile” bottlenecks
X Internet moves beyond bandwidth’s
limits
1000000
X Internet
160000
60000
30000
10000
4000
3200
100000
10000
Client/server
1000
500
120
100
40
10
1
1975
10 9.6
2.4
1
1980
1985
Mainframes and
Green screens
1000
100
33
20 28
19.2
600
Moore’s Law
300
56
2
1990
1995
The Web
2000
2005
Performance (MIPS)
Storage (Mbytes)
Bandwidth (Kbps)
What is the X Internet?
The X Internet refers to two “Xs”
An executable Internet that
supplants today’s Web
An extended Internet that
connects to the real world
Executable Internet builds
conversations
Endpoints
Server
The Web only provides answers
How much is in my account?
Account
summary
The Web
The executable Net creates a
conversation
What should I do with my account?
Financial services tools (executables)
BUY ITNOW
Two-way conversation about my account
The executable
Internet
Isn’t this just Java?
 Java is a piece of some solutions
 But there are other alternatives
Extended Internet -- an Internet of things
Extended
endpoints
Endpoints
Server
The X Internet connects digital to physical
Internet
computers
Digital
Internet
users
Vehicles
Telephones
Buildings
Physical
WhereNet devices simplify supply
logistics
Temp: 52° F
Fuel: 1/2 tank
Door: Closed
• Tag is integrated with door, fuel, and temperature
sensors
• Sensor data is transmitted every few minutes
WhereNet devices simplify supply
logistics
Yard inventory is
conveyed to users
through maps and
reports
Colors indicate trailer status
and alert conditions
Early adopters of X Internet in
developing nations
X Internet pioneers in developing nations
 Hanssem Kitchen Ware (China)
 EAN International
(www.autoidcenter.org)
 CK Tang Department Store
(Malaysia)
 UNCTAD/Savi Technology
partnership
Case study: CEMEX (Mexico)
GPS-enabled truck fleet
20-minute delivery window
Savings: $100 million
When will these changes take
hold?
The three waves of X Internet adoption
High 5
Finance
4
Ut ilit ies
Telecom
Healt hcare
Product fit
• Bits-to-atoms
ratio in end products
• Intangibility of
supply chain assets
Aerospace
Food and
agricult ure
3
2
Const ruct ion
First wave
of adopt ion
(2001-2003)
Logist ics
Media
Second wave
of adopt ion
(2004-2006)
High-tech
Pet rochemicals
Automot ive
Paper
Indust rial equipment
Third wave
of adopt ion
(2007+)
Heavy indust ries
Consumer goods
Low 1
1
Low
2
3
4
Industry readiness
• Value chain simplicity
• Propensity to adopt cross-firm apps
5
High
X Internet devices and spending
Devices
(billions)
Spend
(US$ trillions)
15
$3
10
$2
5
$1
Spend
Devices
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Summary
 The executable Net will supplant the Web
 The extended Net will connect digital
to physical
 The X Internet will let businesses in
developing nations do more with what
they have
Thank you
Navi Radjou
Eroica Howard
[email protected]
[email protected]
+1 617/613-6119
+1 617/613-6295
www.forrester.com