World Energy
Scenarios
Composing Energy Futures to 2050
Dan A. Rieser, Deputy Director, WEC London
© World Energy Council 2013
We live in a changing
and challenging environment…
© World Energy Council 2013
Looking back:
Global primary energy demand: 2002-12
billion t coal equivalent
4,1 Billion t coal equivalent increase ─
46 % of which are coal
2,5
2
Rest of the world
India
1,5
Nuclear
11%
1
China
0,5
0
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Renewables
Coal
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2013
© World Energy Council 2013
Billion: 109
3
Looking forward:
Primary energy demand by energy type
billion t coal equivalent
23,4
2,8 %
8,4 %
3,2 % 0,6 % 2,4 %
18,7
6,8 %
6,3 %
1,3 % 5,0 %
17,1 1,4 % 9,4 %
%
6,5 % 0,5 % 2,3
23,8 %
5,5
%
5,2 %
30,3 %
25,6 %
29,5 %
21,0
23,7 %
21,9 %
23,9
25,2
4,1 %
5,3 % 0,8 % 7,8 %
2,7 %
6,9 %
8,4 %
5,8 %
28,1 %
24,5 %
25,4 %
27,7 %
Biomass/waste
Hydro
Nuclear
18,6 %
Coal
26,8 %
Natural gas
31,6 %
Oil
24,7 %
33,2 %
34,0 %
29,4 %
31,8 %
2010
2010
2020
2025
2030
2040
BP
Exxon/Mobil
BP
Exxon/Mobil
BP
Exxon/Mobil
© World Energy Council 2013
Other renewables
4
Scenarios:
Primary energy supply by energy type
billion t coal equivalent
21,3
18,2
13,2%
5,7%
27,3%
18,7
10,7%
5,2%
28,2%
14,9%
29,3
30,0
30,8
33,3
26,1
14,5%
19,2%
22,1%
30,6% Renewables
7,0%
4,2%
10,2%
5,4%
23,5%
22,4% Coal
22,5
23,5
13,5%
12,9%
16,8%
6,8%
6,0%
6,5%
6,0%
26,8%
28,6%
27,3%
25,5%
11,4%
23,3%
21,5%
22,3%
21,9%
21,6%
32,3%
33,6%
29,9%
30,9%
2010
IEA
2010
EIA
2020
IEA
NPS
Nuclear
29,3%
28,5%
22,3%
© World Energy Council 2013
25,4%
23,7
26,6%
15,2%
19,0% Nat. Gas
26,4%
23,3%
23,8%
2020
EIA
Ref.
27,9%
28,9%
2030
IEA
NPS
2030
EIA
Ref.
28,4%
2040
EIA
Ref.
24,6%
2050
WEC
Jazz
20,3%
17,8%
2050
WEC
Symphony
2050
Shell
Mountains
22,6% Oil
2050
Shell
Oceans
5
Scenarios:
Global electricity generation by fuel type
billion MWh
53,6
47,9
31,1%
39,0
28,2
21,4
20,2
19,6%
12,9%
20,7%
40,6%
12,8%
39,9%
26,6
24,8
%
12,2
%
24,5%
38,6
%
38,1%
22,2%
4,7%
22,2%
4,4%
21,6
%
2,8%
2010
IEA
NPS
2010
EIA
Ref.
2020
IEA
NPS
33,8
33,0
29,0%
24,0%
12,2%
14,6%
24,6%
6,1%
47,9%
Renewables
14,5%
Nuclear
17,7%
Coal
14,1%
13,6%
37,8%
35,5%
34,2%
37,4%
21,9%
24,0%
1,8%
2040
EIA
Ref.
20,8%
3,0%
22,8%
1,8%
2,1%
2020
EIA
Ref.
2030
IEA
NPS
2030
EIA
Ref.
Natural gas
25,0%
19,9%
2050
WEC
Jazz
Oil
2050
WEC
Symphony
Note: IEA and WEC incl. own consumption; EIA excl. own consumption
© World Energy Council 2013
6
Why are WEC scenarios unique?
Plausible, pertinent, alternative stories of the future which:
► portray a range of conceivable outcomes
and aid the understanding of how different
factors can interact and shape
the future.
► identify robust trends; ‘what-if’
assumptions about future. Scenarios are
not forecast.
► inform debate regarding the future energy
landscape; foundation for company
investment decisions & government
policies
© World Energy Council 2013
The uncertainty funnel:
WEC Scenarios are explorative, rather
than normative
Scenario Building Process
at the World Energy
© World Energy Council 2013
8
WEC’s latest scenarios study:
Comprises of two scenarios
The scenarios are designed to
help a range of stakeholders to
address the “energy trilemma” –
of achieving environmental
sustainability, energy security and
energy equity.
Stories quantified by Paul Scherrer
Institute (project partner) based on a
global and regional MARKAL GMM
model
© World Energy Council 2013
WEC Scenarios
Deriving the scenario stories
Two Scenarios stories, exploratory, different and equally
probable rather than good and bad
 Jazz:
Trade based, consumer driven, focussed on access and affordability.
achieving growth through low cost energy. Governments facilitate GHG
actions.
 Symphony:
Government led, voter driven, focussed on environmental goals and
energy security, national and regional measures to increase share of
renewables in energy mix. Binding international agreement on GHG
emissions
© World Energy Council 2013
1
Storyline and quantification assumptions
Jazz
Symphony
GDP growth
Higher (3.54% pa CAGR, PPP)
Lower (3.06% pa CAGR, PPP)
Population
Lower (2050 = 8.7 billion)
Higher (2050 = 9.3 billion)
Efficiency/ Intensity
Increasing (-2.29% pa (primary, PPP))
Increasing more strongly (2.44% pa (primary, PPP))
CO2 prices/climate
policy
Limited Prices (2050): 23-45 USD/tCO2
Stronger Prices (2050): 75-80
USD/tCO2
Resources
Better access to unconventional
resources
More expensive unconventionals
Technology support
Limited; energy choice based on free
markets
support for nuclear, large hydro,
CCS and renewables
Technology innovation
Instruments
© World Energy Council 2013
Further development of CCGT
decentralized power (SPV)
In the absence of international agreed
commitments carbon market grows more
slowly from bottom up based on
regional, national and local initiatives.
Focused R&D programs (esp.
CC(U)S, solar PV)
Carbon market is top down based
on an international agreement,
with commitments and
allocations.
11
Global primary energy supply by energy type
Billion t coal equivalent
Jazz Szenario
40
30,0
30
25,3
20
18,6
12 %
5%
21 %
10
Symphony Szenario
8%
5%
1%
2%
26 %
30 %
2%
2%
6%
11 %
4%
27 %
25 %
32 %
2%
21,5
10 %
8%
26 %
23,7
4%
3%
16 %
4%
11 %
27 %
27 %
2010
2030
2050
0
Biomass/Waste
Hydro
Nuclear
24 %
29 %
25 %
Wind/Solar
10 %
Natural gas
20 %
Oil
20 %
15 %
Coal
2030
2050
Source: World Energy Council, World Energy Scenarios – Composing energy futures to 2050, London, October 2013
© World Energy Council 2013
12
Global electricity generation by fuel type
in TWh
Jazz Szenario
Symphony Szenario
Other
53.647
2%
Geothermal
6%
47.918
8%
1%
2%
3%
16%
Solar PV
Wind
11%
35.198
7%
8%
6%
1%
1%
13%
24%
10%
2%
6%
8%
28%
16%
4%
16%
Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear
14%
2%
15%
Nat. gas (w. CCS)
5%
13%
22%
25%
42%
5%
2%
17%
21.476
4%
31.897
Biomass (w. CCS)
36%
40%
Natural gas
15%
Öl
1%
25%
15%
Coal(w. CCS)
3%
2010
2030
2050
2030
2050
Coal
Source: World Energy Council, World Energy Scenarios - Composing energy futures to 2050, London, October 2013
© World Energy Council 2013
13
Role of renewables in electricity generation
globally
WEC Jazz Scenario
TWh
8.000
7.000
6.000
Hydro
5.000
Biomass
4.000
Biomass (w. CCS)
Wind
3.000
Solar
2.000
Geothermal
1.000
0
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Source: World Energy Council, World Energy Scenarios - Composing energy futures to 2050, London, October 2013
© World Energy Council 2013
14
Role of renewables in electricity generation
globally
WEC Symphony Scenario
TWh
8.000
7.000
6.000
Hydro
5.000
Biomass
4.000
Biomass (w. CCS)
Wind
3.000
Solar
Geothermal
2.000
1.000
0
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Source: World Energy Council, World Energy Scenarios - Composing energy futures to 2050, London, October 2013
© World Energy Council 2013
15
CO₂ emissions by region
JAZZ:
•Energy choice based on free
markets
•limited regulations supporting
low-carbon energy (but
regional diversity)
•consequently: carbon pricing
only after significant income
growth
19%
7%
32%
28%
13%
19%
20%
27%
15%
21%
© World Energy Council 2013
13%
16%
SYMPHONY:
•Priority to environmental
sustainability
•CO2 reduction obligations,
carbon taxes, CC(U)S
mandates, renewable energy
subsidies
•consequently: global carbon
price emerges
16
Resulting CO₂ emissions (black lines)
(IPCC classifiction)
The global economy will be challenged to meet the 450 ppm target
without enormous economic costs
© World Energy Council 2013
17
Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage
18%
23%
JAZZ:
•Possibly ready at
commercial scale 2035
•CC(U)S not adopted
initially due to high
costs/low carbon price
•Commercial use in
enhanced oil recovery
•Wider adoption post 2040
18%
16%
21%
© World Energy Council 2013
SYMPHONY:
•Entry of CC(U)S earlier due
to govt. intervention; govt.
promotion
•CC(U)S increasingly
required on coal new build
•CC(U)S in enhanced oil
recovery
18
WEC and IPCC in context
► Overall IPCC CO2 budget:
1000 GtC (associated with a 2/3rds chance of keeping warming below 2 degrees)
531 GtC has already been used up by 2011
470 Gt remain. In addition, non-CO2 forcings would reduce this to 270 GtC.
► Emissions from 2010-2050 (40 years) – in the energy sector alone:
Jazz approx. 440 GtC
Symphony approx. 310 GtC
► Jazz is well above the budget by 2050, and will continue to overshoot for some
time thereafter since it is very unlikely that emissions would fall from 44 Gt CO2 in
2050 to zero soon after.
► Symphony would also just exceed the budget by 2050, and emissions would
continue afterwards. If the declining output of emissions continues, this scenario
may still be able to achieve 2 degrees, albeit not with the 2/3rds probability
associated with the 1000 Gt budget.
© World Energy Council 2013
Scenario study regions
© World Energy Council 2013
20
Primary energy supply by region
in Billion t coal equivalent
Jazz Szenario
Symphony Szenario
30,0
25,3
18,6
4%
5%
21 %
7%
22 %
8%
4%
7%
7%
6%
9%
8%
15 %
4%
8%
7%
18 %
15 %
19 %
15 %
18 %
18 %
9%
21,5
23,7
6%
10 %
7%
15 %
MENA
Latin America
North America
16 %
Europe
9%
14 %
South & Cental
Asia
28 %
24 %
East Asia
29 %
24 %
6%
8%
8%
7%
8%
2010
2030
2050
2030
2050
27 %
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Southeast Asia &
Pacific
Source: World Energy Council, World Energy Scenarios – Composing energy futures to 2050, London, October 2013
© World Energy Council 2013
21
Renewable electricity generation
by region
in 1.000 TWh
Jazz Szenario
Symphony Szenario
23,0
1,7
1,3
2,7
16,7
1,5
0,5
2,7
2,9
7,1
4,3
0,9
0,9
0,8
1,2
2010
0,3
0,1
0,2
0,2
1,2 0,1
1,6
1,5
1,5
0,5
0,4
2030
3,4
1,1
3,0
1,6
2050
3,6
10,7
0,6
Sub-Saharan
Africa
MENA
Latin America
North America
3,8
Europe
0,2
1,5
2,6
3,1
South & Cental
Asia
2,2
5,2
East Asia
1,6
Southeast Asia &
Pacific
0,9
2,4
0,5
2030
2050
Source: World Energy Council, World Energy Scenarios – Composing energy futures to 2050, London, October 2013
© World Energy Council 2013
22
Renewable electricity generation
share by region
in %
2010
23
17
36
40
48
Symphony
Scenario
2050
45
3
14
38
15
18
66
72
Jazz
Scenario
2050
59
23
48
12
42
41
49
47
59
17
© World Energy Council 2013
21
23
CO2 emissions by region
in billion t
Jazz Szenario
41,8
30,5
0,7
2,1
1,2
6,5
44,0
1,1
2,7
2,0
1,7
3,5
2,1
7,3
6,7
6,7
Symphony Szenario
5,6
Sub-Saharan
Africa
30,4
0,8
2,5
MENA
1,5
Latin America
5,4
19,1
6,2
5,0
2,3
2,8
10,1
0,9
2,30,8
3,1
2,5
2,7
1,7
3,2
3,7
2,3
5,1
1,7
2010
2030
2050
2030
2050
4,1
14,7
8,4
12,3
9,8
North America
Europe
South & Cental
Asia
East Asia
Southeast Asia &
Pacific
Source: World Energy Council, World Energy Scenarios – Composing energy futures to 2050, London, October 2013
© World Energy Council 2013
24
Quantification assumption:
CO2 prices up to 2050
Carbon price (USD2010/tCO2)
Jazz
Sub-Saharan Africa
Middle East & North Africa
Latin America & the Caribbean
North America
Europe
South & Central Asia
East Asia
Southeast Asia & Pacific
2020
2030
2040
2050
0
0
0
8
0-8
0
0-6
0-6
5
5
5
15
5 - 15
5
5 - 12
5 - 12
10
10
10
21
10 - 30
10
10 - 24
10 - 24
23
23
23
28
23 - 45
23
23 - 38
23 - 38
Symphony
Sub-Saharan Africa
Middle East & North Africa
Latin America & the Caribbean
North America
Europe
South & Central Asia
East Asia
Southeast Asia & Pacific
© World Energy Council 2013
2020
2030
2040
2050
10
10
10
21
10 - 30
10
10 - 24
10 - 24
23
23
23
28
23 - 40
23
23 - 38
23 - 38
42
42
42
55
50 - 60
50
50 - 60
50 - 60
70
70
70
70
75 - 80
75
75
75
25
Population without access to energy
in 2050
in millionen
2050
Jazz
2010
589
Sub-Saharan Africa
MENA
20
Latin America
29
2050
Symphony
266
402
North America
Europe
471
South & Central Asia
East Asia
South-East Asia & Pacific
World wide
45
102
22
135
8
1.267
26
319
530
Source: World Energy Council, World Energy Scenarios – Composing energy futures to 2050, London, October 2013
© World Energy Council 2013
26
Summary
Key Findings
© World Energy Council 2013
Energy mix in 2050
► Coal remains a dominant fuel (especially in China and
India), some potential for coal to liquids (CTL), increasing
challenges around CCS
► Natural gas will gain more importance in the energy share
► Oil will continue to be the dominant fuel in transport
► Nuclear is not a game changer
► Hydro: great economic potential of hydro electricity
generation especially in SSA and LAC
► Share of renewables (RES-E) could be increased
► Energy efficiency and energy conservation are absolutely
crucial in dealing with demand outstripping supply
© World Energy Council 2013
Carbon, uncertainties and policies
► A reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is possible in
the second half of the scenario period
► Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is a suitable
technology (in addition to renewable electricity
generation) to reduce CO2 emissions
► The key uncertainties are CCS technology, solar energy
and energy storage
► Energy policy should ensure that energy and carbon
markets deliver investments, promote regional integration
and hence provide benefits to consumers
Creating a sustainable energy mix remains
the major challenge for the 21st century
© World Energy Council 2013
We are in a challenging place
• Demand is not evening out
• Universal electricity access is far from becoming a reality
• The contribution of energy efficiency is not up to expectations
• Current institutions cannot solve the issues
• It is not easy to get funding
What is the way forward?
1. Much of the solution will come from more management in the
demand while leaving the market play its role within robust and
predictable frameworks.
2. National policy frameworks have to be balanced in order to attract
investment
3. International governance in specific areas (eg. trade rules) needs
strengthening
4. Focussed RDD efforts (especially in storage and CCUS) are needed
© World Energy Council 2013
Thank you
Any questions?
Dan A. Rieser
[email protected]
www.worldenergy.org
@WECouncil
© World Energy Council 2013