Global Economic Environment (BUSN07021)
Student Log
Name: Jade Aitken
Banner number: B00232337
CRN:
Submission date: In class, Week 12 of the module
Introduction
As part of the assessment for the module you are required to complete a Log during the
Trimester. The Log is worth 10 percentage points towards your final mark.
The idea behind the Log is to help you to relate some of the key principles and models of
economics to the world of business. It is also an opportunity for you to see how economics
and an economics approach can be useful to you in everyday life and also how it can help
you understand your particular degree specialism more clearly. The Log helps you to
‘contextualise’ economics and move beyond the classroom and in this way to be able to use
an economics approach to improve what you do.
The aim of the Log is to help you think in an analytical way and to produce short, well written
pieces of work very much like a briefing paper that you would produce for a client. This is a
difficult skill to master so cast a critical eye over what you produce and think of ways to make
it shorter, more informative and less descriptive. You are NOT required to write an essay per
question.
Instructions

Save this file and use it as your Log.

Insert your name and Banner details on the front cover and answer the questions set
out below.

You will be given more questions over the next few weeks and you must ADD these
to this Log in order to comprise ONE single document that you will submit for
assessment.

Much of what is contained in the Log will be your assessment and analysis of
contemporary events or incidents. Thus, there will often be no unique correct answer
(as in the real world). Do not be afraid to be creative in your analysis. However, be
warned, what you say must be rooted in economics in some way; we are not simply
looking for your opinion. Please be very clear on this point.

The set questions are NOT essay questions. The intention is that you produce short,
well written analytical pieces of work per question. You should be looking at around
300 to 500 words (maximum). Please ensure that you include any references e.g.
website address and other sources.

Questions will be given out on a regular basis over the next few weeks.

If you have any questions then see your tutor immediately.
Log questions related to Theme One
Q1
Identify a company from the FTSE 100 and monitor its share price over a four week
period. During this period, refer to The Daily Telegraph website
(http://www.telegraph.co.uk/) and look for articles or comment on the company that
you have chosen. Identify any issue(s) or event(s) that may have impacted on the
share price e.g. caused it to increase. Relate any change in the share price to the
issues that are discussed in the newspaper and identify any economics aspects that
may be at work. There is no unique correct answer to this. It is a chance for you to
relate the fortunes of a company to events that surround it.
Centrica Plc is a top 30 FTSE 100 company with a vision to be the leading
integrated energy company putting customers first. Centrica Plc was formed
in February 1997 from a demerger of British Gas Plc, they operate
predominately in the UK trading as Scottish Gas in Scotland and British Gas
in the rest of the UK also North America they are active in each stage of the
energy market.
Centrica employs 40,000 employees worldwide with 31 Million Customer
accounts, as of December 2012 the number of ordinary shareholders was
680,832, with a Market Capitalisation of £17.34bn as of December 2012.
(Centrica.com, Mar 2013)
Centrica made a profit of £606m (Guardian.co.uk, Feb 2013) from residential
energy operations in the UK which is an 11% rise from 2011. British Gas
Customers saw a 6% rise in their energy bills in 2012 however there are some
mitigating factors, Centrica’s profit margin dipped from 6.9% to 6.6% last year.
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFTSE&t=1m&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=CNA.L
Centrica
FTSE100 Change
%Change Less
FTSE100 on
FTSE100
Share
Previous Change
Date
Price
Day
%
01/03/2013
6378.6
0.00
0.00
04/03/2013
6345.6
-1.34
1.59
05/03/2013
6432
0.07
1.05
06/03/2013
6427.6
-0.18
0.32
07/03/2013
6439.2
-0.68
1.79
08/03/2013
6483.6
-0.31
0.28
11/03/2013
6503.6
-0.11
-0.15
12/03/2013
6510.6
0.45
-1.12
13/03/2013
6481.5
-0.73
0.70
14/03/2013
6529.4
0.61
0.41
15/03/2013
6489.6
0.49
0.08
18/03/2013
6457.9
0.26
-1.67
19/03/2013
6441.3
0.13
0.55
20/03/2013
6432.7
0.69
-0.67
21/03/2013
6388.5
-0.07
-1.36
22/03/2013
6392.8
0.23
-1.47
25/03/2013
6378.4
-0.33
-0.95
26/03/2013
6399.4
0.18
-0.24
27/03/2013
6387.6 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
The chart above compares the Centrica share price
to the FTSE100 index prices over a 4 week period as
you can see at the beginning between 1st March and
6th March Centrica performed better than the
market price. Centrica stooped below the market
price from 6th March until 22nd March were it
peaked a considerable 3% above the market price.
On the 4th March the FTSE was at its lowest point
and closed on a negative percentage. This could
have been down to developments in the Chinese
property market to help slow down rising house
prices.
This will reduce the demand for
commodities, which puts pressure on miners who
have a heavy weight on the FTSE100. (The Telegraph,
March 2013).
Having said this on 5th March the FTSE closed above
6,400 for the first time in over five years, this was
due to financial institutions and the mining sector
where heavyweight stocks were meeting and beating
expectations despite difficult trading conditions.
(Reuters.com 5th March 2013)
Centrica had a negative percentage on 18th March which saw it fall -1.67% below the market
to its lowest point of the month; this was possibly down to fall in gas prices as weaker
demand and a gradual rise in temperatures occurred. (Reuters.com 14th March 2013).
From 21st March to 28th March Centrica shares performed extremely well in comparison to
the market, this could be the result of the information released on 26th March that Centrica
has signed a 20 year deal to buy liquefied natural gas (LBG) from an energy facility in
Louisiana (The Telegraph, 26th March 2013)
Q2
Refer to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) website
(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/index.html) or other appropriate site (e.g. Bloomberg) and
collect data over a ten year period on TWO economic variables that you think might
be related or inter-dependent in some way. Plot the data on a graph with TIME on the
X axis. What explanation can you offer for the type of relationship that your graph
shows? (Use an Excel spread sheet to plot the data and import the data table and
graph onto this page along with your analysis.) Think about how you use the data
e.g. could you relate eac h variable to a base year?
Scotland & UK Employment Rate
75.0
percentage of 16-64 year olds
74.0
73.0
72.0
Scotland Employment %
71.0
70.0
69.0
68.0
UK Employment %
Table 1.1
Quarter
Scotland
Unemployment
Uk Unemployment
Rate %
Rate %
Q4 2003
Q4 2004
Q4 2005
Q4 2006
Q4 2007
Q4 2008
Q4 2009
Q4 2010
Q4 2011
Q4 2012
5.782
5.645
5.169
5.158
4.875
5.301
7.643
7.946
8.57
7.712
4.9
4.7
5.1
5.5
5.2
6.3
7.8
7.9
7.4
7.8
Scotland & UK Unemployment Figures
Scotland Unemploy %
percentage of economically active, aged 16+
9
Uk Unemployment %
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Quarter
Q4 2003
Q4 2004
Q4 2005
Q4 2006
Q4 2007
Q4 2008
Q4 2009
Q4 2010
Q4 2011
Table 1.2
Quarter
Q4 2003
Q4 2004
Q4 2005
Q4 2006
Q4 2007
Q4 2008
Q4 2009
Q4 2010
Q4 2011
Q4 2012
Scotland
Employment
Rate %
UK Employment
Rate %
71.8
72.8
73.2
73
73.1
72.6
74.1
72.7
74.2
72.9
73.2
72.2
71.4
70.5
71.1
70.5
70.8
70.3
70.7
71.5
The above charts show data taken from tables 1.1 and 1.2, Employment and
Unemployment Rate trends for Scotland and the rest of the UK from 2003 to
2012.
The latest Employment rate in Scotland as of Dec 2012 is 70.7%, Dec 2011
was 70.8% which shows a decrease of 0.1% with the year. The Employment
rate in Dec 2003 is 71.8% showing a decrease of 2.8% within the 9 year
period.
The latest Employment rate in the UK as of Dec 2012 is 71.5%. Dec 2011
was 70.3% showing a decrease of 1.7% over the year. In 2003 the rate was
72.8%, down the same 1.7% in 9 years.
With regards to the Unemployment rate in Scotland in Dec 2012 the rate is
7.7%, Dec 2011 was 8.5% which calculates as being down 9.4% within a
year. However in Dec 2003 the rate was 5.7% which shows a considerable
35% increase in Unemployment in Scotland the 9 year period.
The Unemployment rate in the UK in Dec 2012 is 7.8%, Dec 2011 shows the
rate as 7.4% this calculates as an increase of 5.4% within a year. In Dec
2003 the rate was 4.9% which when calculated shows a massive 59%
increase in Unemployment in the UK the 9 year period.
If focusing on the Employment and Unemployment rates in Scotland we can
tell from the Employment data chart that over the 9 year period the highest
Employment percentage was in Quarter 2 2007 showing a rate of 74.9% with
the percentage dropping by 6.5% to 70.0% in Quarter 1 2010.
The Unemployment data chart shows more shocking data, the lowest
percentage of unemployment being in quarter 2 of 2008 at 4.2% with the
percentage rising by 100% to 8.4% in Quarter 3 2010.
Q3
Identify from the media a recent case where the management of a firm appears to
have been acting in a way that is NOT in the best interests of the shareholders.
Analyse the case highlighting any economic principle(s) involved, impacts and
proposed remedies. The case can be from any sector and include UK, US and EU
companies. You are encouraged to choose a case that directly or indirectly links to
your degree specialism or area of particular interest.
In June 2012 the banking sector fell under more scrutiny with another banking
scandal “The Libor Scandal”, Libor stands for (London Interbank Offered
Rate) and is the the rate of interest at which banks lend to one another. The
scandal arose when it was discovered that banks were falsely inflating or
deflating these interest rates to determine profits or losses. Barclays was one
of the banks where their management was found manipulating these rates in
order to conceal any problems the bank was facing and to boost profits.
Mortgage holders who have a buy-to-let mortgage or a sub-prime loan are
directly affected as their interest rates are set using Libor. An article in the
Guardian (June 2012) said if Barclays traders were pushing the Libor rate
upwards this would have increased the mortgage rates however indicators
during the financial crisis show that Libor was being manipulated downwards
so anyone with one of these mortgages or loans were getting the benefit of
lower interest rates at the expense of their lenders and shareholders.
Investors, government entities or pension funds whose rates are set using
Libor will be directly affected and Barclay’s or other banks manipulating these
interest rates will possibly result in huge payout in damages in years to come
which will not please their shareholders. Not to mention the loss of public
confidence.
More regulations on who has authority over Libor needs to be implemented. If
bankers do not have any constraints it seems they do what suits them putting
all other factors at risk. Bloomberg (July 2012) suggests replacing Libor with
a benchmark that is “highly resistant to manipulation” however getting
everyone to agree will be another challenge.
Q4.
Choose a market of your choice and show how the concept of cross elasticity
of demand can be used to demonstrate that while some products may
functionally be similar they are perceived by some consumers as being
different. Explain your reasoning.
Cross price elasticity of demand can be demonstrated by measuring the
responsiveness of demand for a product with the change in price in another.
If the amount calculated is positive then this will mean that these products are
substitutes and the consumer can easily switch between the two, an increase
in price for one product means an increase in demand for another.
Sony Playstation3 and Microsoft’s Xbox360 are functionally similar and so the
relationship will be substitutes, you will either buy one or the other. If the
price of the Sony Playstation rises the demand for the substitute Microsoft’s
Xbox will also rise as shown below:
Price of Playstation3
Demand for Xbox
P2
P1
Q1
Q2
If the calculation is negative then this shows that the products are
complements, a good example of complementary products is Sony
Playstation Console and the Sony Playstation games. An increase in price for
the Console will not only reduce the quantity demanded it will also reduce the
quantity demanded for its games.
Price of Playstation 3
P2
P1
Demand for Games
Q2
Q1
In the case of the substitute products Sony Playstation3 and the Xbox360,
while both these products are functionally similar (i.e. they both play games)
some consumers still have a preference on what one they want to buy
depending on specific circumstances. Cross elasticity shows that they are
highly elastic and price is usually the deciding factor in switching to the
substitute. If they were that different the elasticity would be 0 making them
completely independent so raising the price of the Playstation will not have an
effect on the quantity of Xbox360 demanded.
Q5.
Using the supply and demand model:
a) Show how government policies on minimum pricing on alcohol may not
have the desired effect that policy makers had hoped for;
The UK government are proposing to implement a minimum price on alcoholic
beverages to try and tackle or curb the problems of excess consumption
which is costing billions of pounds each year. They predict that setting a
minimum price will lower consumption which as the diagram shows will
reduce the quantity demanded. Setting a minimum price will increase the
price from P1 to P2, P2 being the minimum price that will be set and the
quantity demanded will go from Q1 to Q2. The Equilibrium quantity is QE so
anything above this quantity will be excess stock otherwise known as a
surplus. There is a surplus because producers are willing to supply a larger
quantity however fewer consumers are wanting to buy due to the price the
increase.
The problem with this minimum price policy is that alcohol is addictive and
research has shown that it’s an inelastic good, therefore increasing the price
is only going to decrease the demand by a very little amount, the small
movement is shown in the diagram between QE and Q2.
b) What is it that determines how effective such a policy would be?
Policy makers need to consider how the policies introduced compare with
previous research in terms of what effect the minimum pricing on alcohol
will have on the problem areas i.e. the moderate, hazardous, harmful
drinkers, will there be a lesser demand for alcohol or will people just switch
to substitutes. Is there fewer alcohol related deaths or accidents on the
road. Statistics that are required to determine the effects will take time to
be calculated.
c) Identify one potential unintended consequence of such a policy;
One unintended consequence of a minimum pricing policy on alcohol
could be cross-border purchases, changes in prices may alter peoples
decisions to buy alcohol in the UK, there may be an exchange rate
difference and transport cost however if the actual price of alcohol is lower
in a foreign country then there would be an incentive to cross-border
purchase and buy in bulk to bring back to the UK. According to HMRC it
was estimated that cross-border shopping resulted in £300 million lost on
fiscal revenues.
d) What policy alternative would you recommend, and why?.
I agree with the minimum price of alcohol as there is definitely a problem
with binge drinkers and people abusing alcohol in the UK however I would
recommend that people could be hit with hard hitting health warnings
similar to the tobacco industry or the price of alcohol could be lowered in
bars and restaurants that way people who don’t abuse or binge drink can
still do so at a reasonable price under controlled conditions.
Q6.
Referring to Box 5.3 (page 92 of your text book) explain allowing speculators
to operate in markets may be a worthwhile activity. Refer to a recent example
of speculation in the real world.
Spectators engage in risky financial transactions with the intent to profit from
the futures market, they may be individuals but are more likely financial
institutions. Speculators buy up commodities when the price is right then sell
them further down the line when the prices have risen and either make a profit
or a loss, the risk is theirs and not the seller or buyer of the commodities.
A recent article in The Telegraph (March 2013) explains that a weak pound
and miserable weather has sent the cost of food and commodities souring.
At this time when the sterling is low and people are buying few commodities
investors or speculators see an opportunity.
Extreme weather in 2012 has lead to price hikes in corn, wheat and soya, the
article says that food production must increase by 70% come 2050 to meet
global demand as the world’s population is going to increase by 2.4 billion
over the next 40 years. The only way to meet this demand is through
extensive investment in global agriculture from speculators to help increase
crops.
It’s necessary for food production to increase with less land and amenities by
investments in companies who can mechanisation crop production and
fertilisation with an aim that not only has a huge impact on food production but
can also ensure investors gain profits.
Ways of doing this can be through trading In the future price of grain or buying
shares in agriculture and food-production companies. Henry Boucher a
manager of the AgriSar fund who invests heavily in the supply chain for food
said that holding food related investments is more ethical, handing money to
these companies reduces their capital cost and improves food supply. He
says that Indian Company Syngenta whose fertiliser and seed mix can
improve productivity by up to four times, are the investments that will help
improve global food productivity.
Speculators investing in only the food markets can be volatile as one bad crop
season, due to disease or bad weather could have significant losses this is
why agricultural related shares are preferable as they are less acceptable to
natural disasters. Fertilisers are needed as constant crop production robs the
soil of required nutrients, these fertilisers are affordable to farmers given the
high prices they are getting from their crops.
Q7.
Using any proposed major UK infrastructure project to highlight the issues,
show and explain how knowledge of externalities can help our understanding
of some of the issues involved in such projects.
Infrastructure is structure which is needed for society to operate, or services
which are necessary for the economy to function. Infrastructure is important
for future developments within a country. Examples of infrastructure are
Roads, Bridges, Water Facilities and Telecommunications which help
distribute products to markets. In addition to providing benefits these
transport networks can create positive and negative externalities on
bystanders some examples are:
Positive Externalities
Ability to provide emergency services
Commute benefits
Restoration of historic buildings
Environmental benefits
Positive Climate change
Cleaner Air Quality
Negative Externalities
Noise Pollution
Air Pollution
Congestion
Negative Climate Change
A proposed major UK infrastructure project is the Governments strategy to
build a £34-£36 billion high speed rail network “HS2” running from London to
the West Midlands. The work will begin in 2026 and be completed by 2032
www.parliament.uk (March 2013) Supporters for the project claim that this is
needed to meet future demand to deal with capacity constraints on the West
Coast Main Line however, there are also opponents who think this project is
overpriced and that there are other cheaper means of tackling capacity
The House of Commons released a report (March 2012), this report highlights
how the external benefits and external costs i.e. externalities, affect the
country and people associated with the HS2. I have detailed each argument
below.
The UK is having trouble getting back on its feet following the recession and
the HS2 will help English regions recover by allowing a quicker link from
London to the North. This will help economic development and business
growth within the areas which are currently seen to be too far from the
London. It will allow for more freight corridors carrying goods and services to
the areas involved. HS2 is proposed to be carbon neutral avoiding any
climate impacts. HS2 will encourage a shift from short haul flights which will
reduce the carbon impacts that aviation has on the UK climate change.
Fewer car journeys will help to improve local air quality and reduce road noise
and there will be less congestion or road accidents.
The above diagram shows that the margin of social benefits MSB curve is
above the private benefits curve which indicates that the social benefits of
travelling via the new MS2 exceeds the marginal government benefits.
Those opposed to HS2 feel that having quicker links to London could affect
smaller business and economies rather than stimulate them as it will drain
business from local areas. They believe that the governments predicted
benefits have been over estimated and that swathes of picturesque
countryside will be destroyed by the railway. It will cause huge subsidies and
increase national debt. In a news report from bbc.com (Jan 2012) residents
up and down the country are not so positive about the HS2 saying that it won’t
bring any new local stations to Towns or Villages, so unless your business
was in the West Midlands or London you would not benefit. The noise level
and pollution will affect wildlife and destroy the reasons why people decide to
live in these parts of the country, it will also devalue their property.
The above diagram shows the margin of social costs curve MSC is below the
marginal cost curve MC which means that society feels they are getting less
from the new railway than the government.
These externalities are all the issues the government have to be aware of
before making decisions regarding infrastructure.
Q8.
Using a recent example of government intervention in the market, explain why
such intervention may be seen as a possible response to a failure of the
market to provide the best solution.
The introduction of the National Minimum Wage (NMW) is the most
successful Government intervention of recent times, people at the lower end
of the labour market have benefited with minimum impact on employment.
National Minimum wage is the lowest hourly rate of pay that an employer can
pay for employees or workers.
The government’s main aim of this
intervention was to reduce poverty and exploitation of workers who have little
power over their employers. However people who were against the minimum
wage feel that wages should be set through productivity and not a whim, they
feel that if there is a higher minimum wage then unskilled workers are
competing with skilled workers which will result in unskilled workers being
pushed into unemployment. This strategy also raises the income of those still
in employment which increases the amount of labour supplied to L3, the gap
in the brackets between labour demanded L2 and labour supplied L3 is a
surplus.
Setting a minimum wage will also increase income for the low paid and the
unemployed will be encouraged to get a job. This will show a shift in the
demand curve as detailed below.
Q9.
When intervening in the market, why might a government be concerned with
the issue of moral hazard? Give an example to highlight your answer.
Moral Hazard refers to the undue risks that people will take if they themselves
don’t have to bear the consequences. If a firm goes bankrupt, the government
will not intervene which gives the company an incentive to do well and not
take unnecessary risks. With regards to the banking sector, if the banks fail
the government needs to step in and bail them out to prevent a collapse in
public confidence in the industry. Therefore, banks take a lot of risks. People
argue that the government shouldn’t bail the banks out as this creates moral
hazard. The government need to be concerned with moral hazard because If
they are always bailing the banks out, the banks will keep making the same
risky mistakes in the future. The Government needs to make sure that they
are only assisting some of peoples misfortunes when required as they do not
want everyone relying upon them and taking no responsibility for themselves
i,e, if the government pay people to be poor more people will become poor.
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