OPTIMA INCO-MPC
Fourth Management
Board Meeting,
December 19/20 2006
Milano
DDr. Kurt Fedra Environmental Software & Services GmbH
A-2352 Gumpoldskirchen Austria [email protected] http://www.ess.co.at
Tuesday, December 19
09:00-09:15 Welcome & agenda FEEM
09:15-09:30 Project Status Review ESS
09:30-10:00 Optimization tools ESS
10:00-10:30 Coffee break
10:30-11:30 WP 14 Decision Analysis, C.z.
11:30-12:30 WP 15, Comparative Analysis,
ELARD
12:30 -14:00 Lunch break
WP 7-13: case studies
1. One or more baseline scenarios with “complete”
economic assessment;
2. Case study specific INSTRUMENTS added to
the water technology data base;
3. Optimization scenarios with CONSTRAINTS
and INSTRUMENTS defined;
4. Optimization scenarios post-processed with the
DMC tool, stakeholder involvement (proxies ?)
5. Structure inputs for
–
–
–
WP 14 post-optimal analysis
WP 15 comparative analysis
WP 16 dissemination
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Water resource MC optimization
Design or select policies to
• Maximize the benefits
• Minimize the costs
Using multiple criteria in parallel:
1. physical/hydrological
2. monetary (socio-economic)
3. environmental
Economic (participatory) approach:
Assumes that (rational) individuals maximize
welfare (individual and collective utility) as they
conceive it, forward looking and consistently.
G.Becker, 1993
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Multi criteria optimization
1. Model the behavior of the system (river basin)
in sufficient detail (distributed, dynamic, nonlinear) to generate meaningful criteria
2. Generate large sets of feasible alternatives
that meet all a priori constraints (minimum or
maximum allowable values for key criteria)
3. Select optimal (compromise) solution from the
set of non-dominate feasible alternatives by
trading of conflicting objectives with multiple
criteria (of different units) simultaneously.
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A topological model: nodes and reaches
The river basins (or interconnected
hydraulic system) modeled as:
NODES
produce, consume, store, and
change water quality;
REACHES transport it between nodes
AQUIFERS underlying the network
• Costs
• Benefits
to supply water, damages, shortfall
from satisfied demand, compliance
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Benefits and Costs
Nodes are described by
Cost functions (direct monetary):
– Investment (annualized):
• Life time of project/structure
• Discount rates
– Operating cost (OMR)
Benefits per unit water supplied and used.
All computations on an annual basis
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Benefits and Costs
Direct monetary:
• Investment, operations, damage,
producer benefits (irrigation)
Non-monetary: based on (contingent)
valuation (hypothetical markets):
• Shortfall costs, penalties, benefits of
compliance (in stream use, environmental use)
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Optimization: STEP 1
CONSTRAINTS:
Specify an acceptable system performance
in terms of lower and upper bounds of
criteria:
• Minimum amount of water available
• Maximum costs acceptable
• Minimum Benefits expected
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Water resources systems optimization:
Definition of optimality:
• Acceptability, satisficing
• Requires a participatory approach:
– Identification and involvement of major
actors, stakeholders
– Shared information basis
– Easy access, intuitive understanding
– Web based, local workshops
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Water resources systems optimization:
Acceptability, satisficing:
Easier for stakeholders to define
several fixed targets as
constraints than multiple
objectives and trade offs,
weights, preferences, etc.
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Constraints:
The constraints are formulated as
• minimum or maximum values of
System performance criteria
These describe:
• Hydrological criteria
• Economic criteria
• Suggestions for social criteria such as equity or
performance for domestic demand ?
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System performance criteria:
• Supply/Demand ratio: the ratio of
demand (summed over all DEMAND
NODES) to supply; if all demand is
met, that value can reach a maximum
of 1.0.
• Reliability of Supply (%): the
percentage of all "events" (summed
over all demand nodes and days)
where the demand is met;
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System performance criteria:
• Reservoir performance (%): the
percentage of all "events" (summed
over all reservoirs and all days) where
the release targets is met;
• Diversion performance (%): the
percentage of all "events" (summed
over all diversion nodes and days)
where the diversion target can be met;
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System performance criteria:
• Allocation efficiency (%): the percentage of
supply diverted to supply nodes that matches
demands; all supply beyond demand is "wasted"
and decreases allocation efficiency,
• Unallocated (%): the total amount of water that is
unallocated at reservoirs (spilled), diversions
(beyond diversion and downstream targets),
control nodes (exceeding a minimum flow
constraint), expressed as a percentage of the
total amount of water the passes through these
nodes.
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System performance criteria:
• Water Shortfall: the total amount of water
"missing" from the total demand, summed
overall all reservoir, demand, diversion,
recharge and control nodes, over all days,
expressed as a percentage of all stated
"demands" including releases, diversions,
and in-stream flow constraints.
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System performance criteria:
• Content Change: change of water value,
expressed as a percentage from the initial state
at the beginning of the current (water) simulation
year: measure of sustainability
• Flooding days: days of flooding; a flood occurs if
at any control node the flow exceeds a
maximum flow constraint.
• Flooding extent: the percentage of all "floods"
(summed over all control nodes with a maximum
flow constraint and days) as a percentage of all
"events";
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System performance criteria:
• Economic efficiency: the total benefit
per water available/supplied
in €/m3
• Economic efficiency, direct: the
direct, monetary benefit per unit water
available/supplied
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System performance criteria:
• Benefit/Cost: ratio of all benefits divided
by all costs accounted, including nontangible elements and penalties.
• Benefit/Cost, direct: ratio of all direct
monetary benefits over all direct monetary
costs.
• Net benefit: Total benefit minus total cost,
per capita.
• Total Benefit: Sum of all benefits, per
capita.
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System performance criteria:
• Total Cost: Sum of all costs, per
capita.
• Direct net benefits: Sum of all direct
monetary benefits minus sum of all
direct monetary costs, per capita.
• Direct benefit: Sum of all direct
monetary benefits, per capita.
• Total Cost, direct.: Sum of all direct
monetary costs, per capita.
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System performance criteria:
• Water Cost: Total cost of water, per m3:
Sum of all costs divided by the total
amount of water supplied against
demands at demand nodes, (diversions,
control nodes)
• Water Cost, direct: Total direct monetary
costs of water: as above, but considering
only direct monetary costs.
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Optimization STEP 1:
CONSTRAINTS:
GLOBAL: apply to some general, aggregate
measure for the entire basin
SECTORAL: apply to a sector like agriculture
industry, domestic, environment only
LOCAL (node specific):
At LOCATION node FROM day – TO day
CONCEPT (flow, cost, benefit, ratio)
Must be between MIN – MAX
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Decision Support (multi-attribute)
Reference point approach:
utopia
criterion 2
A4
A5
efficient
point
A2
A6
A1
dominated
A3
nadir
criterion 1
better
Finding a compromise solution:
Direct stakeholder involvement:
• Introduce (secondary)
constraints
• Add or delete criteria
• Change the reference point:
default is UTOPIA
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Optimization and simulation:
•
•
From any non-dominated solution shown
in the DMC tool , a link is available
directly back to the WRM simulation to
re-run and explore detailed outputs from
that scenario;
After modifications, that scenario can
again be made the starting point of
another round of optimization
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Optimization targets:
•
•
•
Complete economic assessment,
include all reasonable COSTS and
BENEFITS - plausible results 
Input for WP 14 and 15 (comparative
analysis – consistency !)
Use alternative scenarios, a rich set of
– CONSTRAINTS
– INSTRUMENTS
Optimization targets:
Scenario editing support tools:
Check the
completeness
of data with the
check/analysis
button for
WRM scenarios:
Tuesday, December 19
09:00-09:15 Welcome & agenda FEEM
09:15-09:30 Project Status Review ESS
09:30-10:00 Optimization tools ESS
10:00-10:30 Coffee break
10:30-11:30 WP 14 Decision Analysis, C.z.
11:30-12:30 WP 15, Comparative Analysis,
ELARD
12:30 -14:00 Lunch break