Lecture 5 & 6
Chapter 7
Sampling and Sampling Distributions
Learning Objectives
In this chapter, you learn:

To distinguish between different sampling
methods

The concept of the sampling distribution

To compute probabilities related to the sample
mean and the sample proportion

The importance of the Central Limit Theorem
Lecture 5 & 6
Chap 7-2
Why Sample?

Selecting a sample is less time-consuming than
selecting every item in the population (census).

Selecting a sample is less costly than selecting
every item in the population.

An analysis of a sample is less cumbersome
and more practical than an analysis of the entire
population.
Lecture 5 & 6
Chap 7-3
A Sampling Process Begins With A
Sampling Frame




Lecture 5 & 6
The sampling frame is a listing of items that
make up the population
Frames are data sources such as population
lists, directories, or maps
Inaccurate or biased results can result if a
frame excludes certain portions of the
population
Using different frames to generate data can
lead to dissimilar conclusions
Chap 7-4
Types of Samples
Samples
Non-Probability
Samples
Judgment
Convenience
Probability Samples
Simple
Random
Stratified
Systematic
Lecture 5 & 6
Cluster
Chap 7-5
Types of Samples:
Nonprobability Sample

In a nonprobability sample, items included are
chosen without regard to their probability of
occurrence.


Lecture 5 & 6
In convenience sampling, items are selected based
only on the fact that they are easy, inexpensive, or
convenient to sample.
In a judgment sample, you get the opinions of preselected experts in the subject matter.
Chap 7-6
Types of Samples:
Probability Sample

In a probability sample, items in the
sample are chosen on the basis of known
probabilities.
Probability Samples
Simple
Random
Lecture 5 & 6
Systematic
Stratified
Cluster
Chap 7-7
Probability Sample:
Simple Random Sample

Every individual or item from the frame has an
equal chance of being selected

Selection may be with replacement (selected
individual is returned to frame for possible
reselection) or without replacement (selected
individual isn’t returned to the frame).

Samples obtained from table of random
numbers or computer random number
generators.
Lecture 5 & 6
Chap 7-8
Selecting a Simple Random Sample
Using A Random Number Table
Sampling Frame For
Population With 850
Items
Item Name Item #
Bev R.
Ulan X.
.
.
.
.
Joann P.
Paul F.
Lecture 5 & 6
001
002
.
.
.
.
849
850
Portion Of A Random Number Table
49280 88924 35779 00283 81163 07275
11100 02340 12860 74697 96644 89439
09893 23997 20048 49420 88872 08401
The First 5 Items in a simple
random sample
Item # 492
Item # 808
Item # 892 -- does not exist so ignore
Item # 435
Item # 779
Item # 002
Chap 7-9
Probability Sample:
Systematic Sample

Decide on sample size: n

Divide frame of N individuals into groups of k
individuals: k=N/n

Randomly select one individual from the 1st
group

Select every kth individual thereafter
N = 40
First Group
n=4
k = 10
Lecture 5 & 6
Chap 7-10
Lecture 5 & 6
Chap 7-11
Probability Sample:
Stratified Sample

Divide population into two or more subgroups (called strata) according
to some common characteristic

A simple random sample is selected from each subgroup, with sample
sizes proportional to strata sizes

Samples from subgroups are combined into one

This is a common technique when sampling population of voters,
stratifying across racial or socio-economic lines.
Population
Divided
into 4
strata
Lecture 5 & 6
Chap 7-12
Probability Sample
Cluster Sample

Population is divided into several “clusters,” each representative of
the population

A simple random sample of clusters is selected

All items in the selected clusters can be used, or items can be
chosen from a cluster using another probability sampling technique

A common application of cluster sampling involves election exit polls,
where certain election districts are selected and sampled.
Population
divided into
16 clusters.
Lecture 5 & 6
Randomly selected
clusters for sample
Chap 7-13
Probability Sample:
Comparing Sampling Methods



Lecture 5 & 6
Simple random sample and Systematic sample
 Simple to use
 May not be a good representation of the population’s
underlying characteristics
Stratified sample
 Ensures representation of individuals across the entire
population
Cluster sample
 More cost effective
 Less efficient (need larger sample to acquire the same
level of precision)
Chap 7-14
Evaluating Survey Worthiness






Lecture 5 & 6
What is the purpose of the survey?
Is the survey based on a probability sample?
Coverage error – appropriate frame?
Nonresponse error – follow up
Measurement error – good questions elicit good
responses
Sampling error – always exists
Chap 7-15
Types of Survey Errors

Coverage error or selection bias


Non response error or bias


Variation from sample to sample will always exist
Measurement error

Lecture 5 & 6
People who do not respond may be different from those who
do respond
Sampling error


Exists if some groups are excluded from the frame and have
no chance of being selected
Due to weaknesses in question design, respondent error, and
interviewer’s effects on the respondent (“Hawthorne effect”)
Chap 7-16
Types of Survey Errors
(continued)

Coverage error
Excluded from
frame

Non response error
Follow up on
nonresponses

Sampling error
Random
differences from
sample to sample

Measurement error
Bad or leading
question
Lecture 5 & 6
Chap 7-17
Sampling Distributions

A sampling distribution is a distribution of all of the
possible values of a sample statistic for a given size
sample selected from a population.

For example, suppose you sample 50 students from your
college regarding their mean GPA. If you obtained many
different samples of 50, you will compute a different
mean for each sample. We are interested in the
distribution of all potential mean GPA we might calculate
for any given sample of 50 students.
Lecture 5 & 6
Chap 7-18
Developing a
Sampling Distribution

Assume there is a population …

Population size N=4

Random variable, X,
is age of individuals

Values of X: 18, 20,
22, 24 (years)
Lecture 5 & 6
A
B
C
D
Chap 7-19
Developing a
Sampling Distribution
(continued)
Summary Measures for the Population Distribution:
X

μ
P(x)
i
N
.3
18  20  22  24

 21
4
σ
 (X  μ)
i
N
.2
.1
0
2
 2.236
18
20
22
24
A
B
C
D
x
Uniform Distribution
Lecture 5 & 6
Chap 7-20
Developing a
Sampling Distribution
(continued)
Now consider all possible samples of size n=2
1st
Obs
16 Sample
Means
2nd Observation
18
20
22
24
18
18,18
18,20
18,22
18,24
20
20,18
20,20
20,22
20,24
1st 2nd Observation
Obs 18 20 22 24
22
22,18
22,20
22,22
22,24
18 18 19 20 21
24
24,18
24,20
24,22
24,24
20 19 20 21 22
16 possible samples
(sampling with
replacement)
Lecture 5 & 6
22 20 21 22 23
24 21 22 23 24
Chap 7-21
Developing a
Sampling Distribution
(continued)
Sampling Distribution of All Sample Means
Sample Means
Distribution
16 Sample Means
1st 2nd Observation
Obs 18 20 22 24
18 18 19 20 21
20 19 20 21 22
22 20 21 22 23
24 21 22 23 24
_
P(X)
.3
.2
.1
0
18 19
20 21 22 23
24
_
X
(no longer uniform)
Lecture 5 & 6
Chap 7-22
Developing a
Sampling Distribution
(continued)
Summary Measures of this Sampling Distribution:
μX
X

i 18  19  19    24


 21
σX 

Lecture 5 & 6
N
16
2
(
X

μ
)
i

X
N
(18 - 21)2  (19 - 21)2    (24 - 21)2
 1.58
16
Chap 7-23
Comparing the Population Distribution
to the Sample Means Distribution
Population
N=4
μ  21
σ  2.236
Sample Means Distribution
n=2
μX  21
σ X  1.58
_
P(X)
.3
P(X)
.3
.2
.2
.1
.1
0
Lecture 5 & 6
18
20
22
24
A
B
C
D
X
0
18 19
20 21 22 23
24
_
X
Chap 7-24
Sample Mean Sampling Distribution:
Standard Error of the Mean

Different samples of the same size from the same
population will yield different sample means

A measure of the variability in the mean from sample to
sample is given by the Standard Error of the Mean:
(This assumes that sampling is with replacement or
sampling is without replacement from an infinite population)
σ
σX 
n

Lecture 5 & 6
Note that the standard error of the mean decreases as
the sample size increases
Chap 7-25
Sample Mean Sampling Distribution:
If the Population is Normal

If a population is normal with mean μ and
standard deviation σ, the sampling distribution
of X is also normally distributed with
μX  μ
Lecture 5 & 6
and
σ
σX 
n
Chap 7-26
Z-value for Sampling Distribution
of the Mean

Z-value for the sampling distribution of X :
Z
where:
( X  μX )
σX
( X  μ)

σ
n
X = sample mean
μ = population mean
σ = population standard deviation
n = sample size
Lecture 5 & 6
Chap 7-27
Sampling Distribution Properties
μx  μ

(i.e.
Lecture 5 & 6
x is unbiased )
Normal Population
Distribution
μ
x
μx
x
Normal Sampling
Distribution
(has the same mean)
Chap 7-28
Sampling Distribution Properties
(continued)
As n increases,
Larger
sample size
σ x decreases
Smaller
sample size
μ
Lecture 5 & 6
x
Chap 7-29
Determining An Interval Including A
Fixed Proportion of the Sample Means
Find a symmetrically distributed interval around µ
that will include 95% of the sample means when µ
= 368, σ = 15, and n = 25.



Lecture 5 & 6
Since the interval contains 95% of the sample means
5% of the sample means will be outside the interval
Since the interval is symmetric 2.5% will be above
the upper limit and 2.5% will be below the lower limit.
From the standardized normal table, the Z score with
2.5% (0.0250) below it is -1.96 and the Z score with
2.5% (0.0250) above it is 1.96.
Chap 7-30
Determining An Interval Including A
Fixed Proportion of the Sample Means
(continued)

Calculating the lower limit of the interval
σ
15
XL  μZ
 368  (1.96)
 362.12
n
25


Lecture 5 & 6
Calculating the upper limit of the interval
σ
15
XU  μ  Z
 368  (1.96)
 373.88
n
25
95% of all sample means of sample size 25 are
between 362.12 and 373.88
Chap 7-31
Sample Mean Sampling Distribution:
If the Population is not Normal

We can apply the Central Limit Theorem:


Even if the population is not normal,
…sample means from the population will be
approximately normal as long as the sample size is
large enough.
Properties of the sampling distribution:
μx  μ
Lecture 5 & 6
and
σ
σx 
n
Chap 7-32
Central Limit Theorem
As the
sample
size gets
large
enough…
n↑
the sampling
distribution
becomes
almost normal
regardless of
shape of
population
x
Lecture 5 & 6
Chap 7-33
Sample Mean Sampling Distribution:
If the Population is not Normal
(continued)
Population Distribution
Sampling distribution
properties:
Central Tendency
μx  μ
σ
σx 
n
Variation
Lecture 5 & 6
μ
x
Sampling Distribution
(becomes normal as n increases)
Larger
sample
size
Smaller
sample size
μx
x
Chap 7-34
How Large is Large Enough?
Lecture 5 & 6

For most distributions, n > 30 will give a
sampling distribution that is nearly normal

For fairly symmetric distributions, n > 15

For normal population distributions, the
sampling distribution of the mean is always
normally distributed
Chap 7-35
Example


Lecture 5 & 6
Suppose a population has mean μ = 8 and
standard deviation σ = 3. Suppose a random
sample of size n = 36 is selected.
What is the probability that the sample mean is
between 7.8 and 8.2?
Chap 7-36
Example
(continued)
Solution:


Even if the population is not normally
distributed, the central limit theorem can be
used (n > 30)
… so the sampling distribution of
approximately normal
x
is

… with mean μx = 8

σ
3
…and standard deviation σ x  n  36  0.5
Lecture 5 & 6
Chap 7-37
Example
(continued)
Solution (continued):


 7.8 - 8
X -μ
8.2 - 8 
P(7.8  X  8.2)  P



3
σ
3


36
n
36 

 P(-0.4  Z  0.4)  0.3108
Population
Distribution
???
?
??
?
?
?
?
?
μ8
Lecture 5 & 6
Sampling
Distribution
Standard Normal
Distribution
Sample
.1554
+.1554
Standardize
?
X
7.8
μX  8
8.2
x
-0.4
μz  0
0.4
Z
Chap 7-38
Population Proportions
π = the proportion of the population having
some characteristic

p
Sample proportion ( p ) provides an estimate
of π:
X
number of items in the sample having the characteri stic of interest

n
sample size


0≤ p≤1
p is approximately distributed as a normal distribution
when n is large
(assuming sampling with replacement from a finite population or
without replacement from an infinite population)
Lecture 5 & 6
Chap 7-39
Sampling Distribution of p

Approximated by a
normal distribution if:

and
0
n(1  π )  5
μp  π
Sampling Distribution
.3
.2
.1
0
nπ  5
where
P( ps)
and
.2
.4
.6
8
1
p
π(1 π )
σp 
n
(where π = population proportion)
Lecture 5 & 6
Chap 7-40
Z-Value for Proportions
Standardize p to a Z value with the formula:
p 
Z

σp
Lecture 5 & 6
p 
 (1   )
n
Chap 7-41
Example


If the true proportion of voters who support
Proposition A is π = 0.4, what is the probability
that a sample of size 200 yields a sample
proportion between 0.40 and 0.45?
i.e.: if π = 0.4 and n = 200, what is
P(0.40 ≤ p ≤ 0.45) ?
Lecture 5 & 6
Chap 7-42
Example
(continued)

if π = 0.4 and n = 200, what is
P(0.40 ≤ p ≤ 0.45) ?
Find σ p : σp 
 (1  )
n
0.4(1  0.4)

 0.03464
200
0.45  0.40 
 0.40  0.40
Convert to
P(0.40  p  0.45)  P
Z

standardized
0.03464 
 0.03464
normal:
 P(0  Z  1.44)
Lecture 5 & 6
Chap 7-43
Example
(continued)

if π = 0.4 and n = 200, what is
P(0.40 ≤ p ≤ 0.45) ?
Use standardized normal table:
P(0 ≤ Z ≤ 1.44) = 0.4251
Standardized
Normal Distribution
Sampling Distribution
0.4251
Standardize
0.40
Lecture 5 & 6
0.45
p
0
1.44
Z
Chap 7-44
Chapter Summary







Lecture 5 & 6
Discussed probability and nonprobability samples
Described four common probability samples
Examined survey worthiness and types of survey
errors
Introduced sampling distributions
Described the sampling distribution of the mean
 For normal populations
 Using the Central Limit Theorem
Described the sampling distribution of a proportion
Calculated probabilities using sampling distributions
Chap 7-45