21 ISMOR
1 September 2004
Analytic Decision Support in a Civilian
Organization:OPP&A in the CPA
David F. Davis
George Mason University
[email protected]
http://popp.gmu.edu
OED
IRMO/Planning
OPP&A
POPP
I’m really not representing any of these!
Our Logo from
IRMO/Planning
(I’ll use it from here on)
Decision Support
The Plans
The Questions
The Analysis
The Issues
The Plans
Military Campaign Plans
Civilian Plans
OIF 1 – Coalition 2002/2003
– Coalition April 2003
– Coalition Nov. 2003
Update – MNF-I July 2004
Future of Iraq – DOS Late 2002
Unified Mission Plan – CPA April 2003
Initial Strategic Plan – CPA late summer 2003
Transition Strategic Plan – CPA November 2003
Mission Performance Plan – Embassy July 2004
Initial planning appears to have been disconnected.
Subsequent planning was more coordinated.
MNF-I and late CPA/Embassy planning verged on collaboration.
The CPA Strategic Plan
Towards Transition
Towards Transition
Security
Economics
Essential Services
Governance
Strategic Communications
Based, in part, on previous work done for other missions, the
Strategic Plan began with the primary goal of CPA and refined
each of the sub-goals, or sectors, into objectives – then key
tasks – and finally sub-tasks. The sub-tasks were monitored on
a weekly basis and progress was identified by the responsible –
operational – organization.
A Look at the MPP
Three overarching themes are addressed in the
introduction to the MPP.
• Fighting Terror
• Building Democracy
• Reconstruction and Economic Development.
These same three themes are put forth by Ambassador
Negroponte quite frequently as:
• Political: Democratization and the Rule of Law
• Economic: Development and Reconstruction
• Security: Eliminating Terrorism and Providing Public
Safety
Structure of the MPP
Performance Goal Papers
Strategic Goals
Performance Goals
Strategies
The structure of the
MPP is similar to that of
the Strategic Plan – it is
a decomposition of
goals to activities.
Tactics
Performance Indicators
Performance Goal Papers
I – Prevention and Response to Terrorism
II – Regional Stability
III – Weapons of Mass Destruction
IV – Democracy and Human Rights
V – Economic Prosperity and Security
VI – Consular Affairs
VII – Mission Security
VIII – Mutual Understanding
IX – Education and Health Services
X – Humanitarian Response
XI – Management and Organizational Excellence
Although comprehensive,
these Goal Papers do not
track directly with the
themes. Very generally,
they map as follows:
• Political: IV, VIII
• Economic: V, IX, X
• Security: I, II, III
With the core Embassy
Operations accounting for
VI, VII and XI.
Other Categorization Schemes
UN Clusters
World Bank Sectors
2207 Categories
USAID Primary Sectors
The Conceptual Model of Peace Operations
Although very similar, the determination of what activity or project
belongs to what category becomes very difficult to predetermine.
Knowing this ‘mapping’ is essential as we try to understand how
spending and resource allocation relates to the overall goals and
priorities of the Mission.
The Questions
The bottom line: Not enough!
However, most of the questions revolved around priorities.
Under CPA:
- What are the risks to the Transition?
- What should be the top five priorities for the Administrator?
Under IRMO:
- How should the $18.4B be allocated?
- What should be measured?
The Analysis
The bottom line: Not enough!
However, most of the questions revolved around priorities.
Under CPA:
- What are the risks to the Transition?
- What should be the top five priorities for the Administrator?
Under IRMO:
- How should the $18.4B be allocated?
- What should be measure?
The Risks
Identifying the risks to the transition
required that we used the current
Strategic Plan.
If the Objectives of the Strategic Plan
represent the requirements, then the
Amber and Red Objectives should help
us begin the analysis of Risk –
Probability of Failure.
Goal Tree
Democratic
Peace
Theory
Pose No Threat
Stability
'Theory'
Stable
Market Economy
Democratic
Whole, Self
Protecting and
Sustainable
Protected Freedoms
Unified
Self Defense
Free, Whole and
Self Protecting
The Goal
The ultimate goal is a unified and stable, democratic Iraq that
provides effective and representative government for the Iraqi
people; is underpinned by new and protected freedoms for all
Iraqis and a growing market economy; is able to defend itself but
no longer poses a threat to its neighbors or international security.
Topics from "Towards Transition in Iraq"
Relationships by Analyst based on known or accepted concepts
28 Feb 04 - DFD
Tree Update
Pose No Threat
Electricity
Democratic
Stable
Protected Freedoms
Unified
Market Economy
Self Defense
Counter
Insurgency
Public Safety
Electoral
Processes
Judicial Systems
Strategic
Communications
Plan
Vital and Critical Elements
scored with Amber Status.
Tier I Ministries Only
The Model
Risk Model Version 0.1
Restricted to Plan Elements
12 March 2004
Pose No Threat
Counter
Insurgency
Civil Order
Social Justice
Human Rights
Electoral
Processes
Refugees and IDPs
Societal Support
Iraqi Media
Transportation and
Distribution
Judicial Systems
Public Safety
Strategic
Communications
Plan
Electricity
Water and Public
Works
Microsoft Belief Network
Microsoft Belief Network Evaluated
The Allocation
How can we propose a reallocation of the $18.4B?
This effort has consumed the Embassy, although it
was never a major issue in the CPA. This dichotomy
may well be the source of many books over the next
several years.
Beginning in early June, the IRMO Planning office
began to look at this issue from a goals based
perspective.
MPP High Level Goals
Security
Economic
Eliminate
Terrorism
Economic
Development
DGS
Democratization
and the Rule of
Law
Political
The analysis was
an attempt to
show the
relationship
between the ‘plan’
and the $18.4B.
MPP Strategic Goals
1 Counter
Terrorism
2 A Strong Reliable
Regional Partner
Eliminate
Terrorism
3 Complete and
Verifiable
Disarmament
5 Sustainable
Growth
Economic
Development
DGS
9 Social, Environmental,
Health and Education
Democratization
and the Rule of
Law
4 A Democratic and
Free Iraq
10 Refugees
and IDPs
PMO Categories Impacting MPP Strategic Goals
Security and
Law
Enforcement
1 Counter
Terrorism
Justice, Public
Safety
Infrastructure and
Civil Society
Oil
2 A Strong Reliable
Regional Partner
Eliminate
Terrorism
3 Complete and
Verifiable
Disarmament
Economic
Development
DGS
Electricity
5 Sustainable
Growth
Water Resources
and Sanitation
Health
9 Social, Environmental,
Health and Education
Democratization
and the Rule of
Law
4 A Democratic and
Free Iraq
Transportation and
Telecommunications
10 Refugees
and IDPs
Education,
Refugees, Human
Rights and
Governance
USAID Sectors Impacting MPP Strategic Goals
Ports and Airports
1 Counter
Terrorism
2 A Strong Reliable
Regional Partner
Eliminate
Terrorism
3 Complete and
Verifiable
Disarmament
Public Utilities and
Infrastructure
5 Sustainable
Growth
Economic
Development
DGS
9 Social, Environmental,
Health and Education
Democratization
and the Rule of
Law
4 A Democratic and
Free Iraq
Education
Health
10 Refugees
and IDPs
Emergency
Local Governance
and Civic Action
Economic Recovery,
Reform and Sustained
Growth
993
Ongoing or Completed 53
Million US$
Ports and Airports
471
Security and
Law
Enforcement
1 Counter
Terrorism
Justice, Public
Safety
Infrastructure and
Civil Society
Electricity
Oil
2 A Strong Reliable
Regional Partner
4 A Democratic and
Free Iraq
Water Resources
and Sanitation
5 Sustainable
Growth
DGS
9 Social, Environmental,
Health and Education
42
Education
Health
10 Refugees
and IDPs
0
Education,
Refugees, Human
Rights and
Governance
0
Health
1.5
Emergency
Local Governance
and Civic Action
232
Economic
Development
Democratization
and the Rule of
Law
31
0
Transportation and
Telecommunications
661
752
Eliminate
Terrorism
3 Complete and
Verifiable
Disarmament
Public Utilities and
Infrastructure
90
64
USAID project money only, does not include program overhead and direct salaries
PMO as of 14 June 2004, USAID as of 17 June 2004
Economic Recovery,
Reform and Sustained
Growth
15
$3,162M
Ongoing or Completed
Million US$
Ports and Airports
Security and
Law
Enforcement
13:1
1 Counter
Terrorism
Justice, Public
Safety
Infrastructure and
Civil Society
Electricity
Oil
2 A Strong Reliable
Regional Partner
Eliminate
Terrorism
3 Complete and
Verifiable
Disarmament
Public Utilities and
Infrastructure
Transportation and
Telecommunications
5 Sustainable
Growth
Economic
Development
DGS
9 Social, Environmental,
Health and Education
Democratization
and the Rule of
Law
4 A Democratic and
Free Iraq
Water Resources
and Sanitation
Education
Health
10 Refugees
and IDPs
Education,
Refugees, Human
Rights and
Governance
Health
Emergency
Local Governance
and Civic Action
$243.5M
USAID project money only, does not include program overhead and direct salaries
Economic Recovery,
Reform and Sustained
Growth
How should we be spending the money?
If we are to be spending the money to further the goals of the
Mission, then we should try to understand how each of the projects
and activities contribute to those goals. This will require some
innovative thought on the part of all stakeholders: US, International
Partners and the Iraqis.
The IRMO Planning approach to this problem uses both quantitative and
qualitative techniques of Management Science and Operations
Research.
1. Identify projects and activities within funding sectors by source of funding
and primary agent (PCO, USAID, IC, Iraqi)
2. Score these projects, within sectors, on the project’s/activity’s contribution
to the second level Goals of the COM.
3. Score the second level Goals on their contribution to the overall Mission.
4. Determine the combined scores for each alternative allocation strategy.
The choice of allocation strategy will be made by the leadership, not the analyst.
Identify contribution of projects
and activities to the sectors.
The advocacy briefings indicated that in sector priority lists
exist in almost every case. These priority lists and the
contribution of the project to the mission goals could be used to
provide for project scoring within sector.
However, this initial effort is focused on determining an
investment strategy, not individual sector spending plans. The
scoring must represent the general utility expected of a project
within a sector.
Alternative Allocations
14,000
12,000
Million $
10,000
Non US Spent
2207
Option A
Option B
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Public Buildings
and Other
Reconstruction
Regional
Programs
Economic
Reconstruction
Governance
Humanitarian and Essential Services
Human Services
Security
GAO Sector Description
Review
Scoring:
Contribution of Projects to Goals
Contribution of Projects to Sectors
Contribution of Goals to Mission
The Model
Allocate resources to the sectors in order to maximize the total
utility (effectiveness), subject to the requirement that the total
resources do not exceed $M (currently set to $18.2m).
Maximize
S.T.
U  i wi ui
a
i
M
i
ai  0 i
ui  1i
And
ui  f i (a )
Where wi is the Weight of
Sector i, ui is the utility of
Sector i , ai is the
distribution to Sector i,
and fi is defined as a
piece-wise linear
function.
Utility Functions – fi
Sector
A(1)
Public Buildings and Other Reconstruction
Economic Reconstruction
Governance
Regional Programs
Security
Humanitarian and Human Services
Essential Services
A(N)
X
M(1)
1831
0.5
0.000934579
0.0003858
0.293595679
651
1962
0.5
0.000768049 0.00038139
0.251716247
199
587
0.5
0.002512563 0.00128866
0.243556701
1,230
3,027
0.5
0.000406504 0.00027824
0.157762938
5,080
5,234
0.5
9.84252E-05 0.00324675 -15.99350649
2,045
8,745
0.5
0.000244499 7.4627E-05
0.34738806
7,801
33,873
0.5
6.40943E-05 1.9178E-05
0.35039506
1.0
U = M(2)*A + B
X
U = M(1)*A
A, in $
A(N)
B
535
U
A(1)
M(N)
In Sector Utilities
1
Utilities (1.0 Maximum)
0.9
0.8
Public
Buildings and
Other
Reconstruction
Economic
Reconstruction
0.7
0.6
Governance
0.5
Regional
Programs
0.4
Security
0.3
Humanitarian
and Human
Services
0.2
Essential
Services
0.1
0
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000 ($1000s)
Sector Weights
Public and other,
0.026
Regional, 0.037
Econ. Rec., 0.079
Security, 0.419
Gov., 0.115
Humanitarian, 0.121
ESS, 0.203
Alternative Comparisons
Change from Base
Base
Public Buildings and Other Reconstruction
Regional Programs
Economic Reconstruction
Governance
Humanitarian and Human Services
Essential Services
Security
0
0
184
451
1052
12304
4281
Option A
100
1000
800
1179
1350
9500
4343
100
1000
616
728
298
-2804
62
Option B
677
523
1624
1087
1561
8549
4251
677
523
1440
636
509
-3755
-30
Relative Scores
0.84
0.83
0.82
0.81
0.8
0.79
0.78
0.77
0.76
0.75
Base
Option A
Option B
The combination of effectiveness and importance allows for a calculation of the overall score.
The Issues
Culture of Analysis
Intent of the Office v. Background of the Director
Asking questions for which answers are desired
Cornwallis X
Proposed Theme: Analysis for the Multi-National Inter-Agency
The ‘Multi-Agency.’
Location is being decided by the committee since the Pearson
Peacekeeping Centre is no longer available for conferences in
residence.
1: The Royal Military College in Kingston, Ontario, Canada
2: The Boyana Palace, Sofia, Bulgaria
3: The Holiday Inn – Las Cruces, Las Cruces, New Mexico, USA
Cornwallis Committee
Members
Professor D.F. Davis, Program Chair
George Mason University, MS3B1
3401 N. Fairfax Dr.
Arlington, VA 22201, USA
+1 (703) 993-1703 Voice
[email protected]
Dr. Ted Woodcock, Co-Chair and Editor
School of Public Policy
4400 University Dr.
Fairfax, VA 22030
+1 (703) 993-2280 Voice
[email protected]
Mr. Karl Bertsche
Daimler-Benz/Dornier
88039 Friedrichshafen, Germany
+49(7545)89613 Voice
[email protected]
Dr. Paul Chouinard
Strategic Planning Operations Research Team
101 Colonel Bye Dr.
Ottawa, Ontario
Canada, K1A OK2
+1 (613) 992-4500 Voice
[email protected]
Mr. S Anders Christensson
National Defence College
SE 117 93 Stockholm
Sweden
+46 70 628 9678 Voice
[email protected]
Dr. Reiner K. Huber
Bundeswehr University
D-85577 Neubiberg
Germany
+49(089)6004-2206 Voice
[email protected]
Dr. George Rose
Group Leader
Support to Operations
PCS Department
Dstl Farnborough
+44 1252 45 1825 Voice
[email protected]
Mr. E.P. Visco
3752 Capulet Trace
Silver Spring, MD 20906
+1 (301) 598-8048 [Voice/Fax]
[email protected]
Larry Wentz
GMU Center of Exellence in C3I
+1 703-757-1250 Voice
+1 703-757-1251 Fax
[email protected]