REAL ESTATE DATATREND
HDB Market Pulse
Keener Sense of Real Estate
Bringing you the latest trend in the heartlands
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RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY
Celine Chan
Research Analyst
Stabilising price trend reassuring buyers
Prices to trend sideways
Rejuvenation of selected towns
BTO Launch in August 2016
Stabilising price trend reassuring sellers
With lower uncertainty due to a stabilising HDB resale market,
resale volumes have risen as buyers who had been waiting on
the side lines are gradually persuaded to enter the market.
Demand could have also come from Permanent Residents (PR)
who have completed their 3 year waiting period. Since August
2013, new PRs have to observe a 3 year waiting period before
they can purchase a resale flat.
Wong Xian Yang
Head
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.orangetee.com
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Prices to trend sideways
Though the price trend appears to have stabilised, we do not
envisage a recovery in prices, given that the economic
outlook remains dim and the Mortgage Servicing Ratio (MSR)
and the 3 year PR rule still remain in place. Prices are likely
to trend sideways till 2017. Volumes may continue to rise,
albeit at a gradual pace, as prices reach equilibrium and
upgraders move to their Executive Condos upon completion.
Rejuvenation of selected towns
Toa Payoh, Woodlands and Pasir Ris are placed under the
HDB’s initiative titled Remaking Our Heartland (ROH).
Enhancements will address three broad topics – shaping and
strengthening identity of town through the provision and
installation of significant places, improvement of community
bonding through revamping and/or providing public spaces
and improve connectivity by building shelters, widening
pedestrian walk ways and provision of cycling paths.
Residents of Pasir Ris can also look forward to a mixed-use
development integrated with a new bus interchange in the
Town Center.
BTO Launch in August 2016
The next BTO launch will be held in August 2016, offering a
total of 4,810 units spanning across non-mature and mature
estates. Of the non-mature estates, there will be 700 units
offered in Hougang, 750 units in Sembawang and 780 units
in Yishun. The majority of units, 2,760, will be offered in
Tampines, a mature estate.
See terms of use on last page.
Expected BTO Launches
Source: HDB, OrangeTee Research
Page 1 | 4
| Singapore | Residential |
At a glance
26 July 2016
Resale Index remained unchanged
HDB Resale Index remained at
134.7 in 2Q16, unchanged from
1Q16. This reflects a -0.2% year-onyear change as compared to the
preceding quarter in 2015.
The Index has seemingly found a
new equilibrium; the prolonged
state
of
such
stabilisation
encourages buyers who had been
observing on the side lines to enter
the market.
Source: HDB, OrangeTee Research
Exhibit 2: HDB Resale volume by room type
Highest volume since 4Q12
Volumes have reached a new high
since 4Q12, a total of 5,838 units
were transacted in the resale
market in 2Q16, 31.2% up from
1Q16 and 19.3% higher than the
preceding quarter in 2015. Year to
date, 2016 has seen 9.2% more
transaction than 2015. The jump in
volumes can be attributed to
seasonality and stability in resale
prices.
Source: HDB, OrangeTee Research
Exhibit 3: HDB Rental volume by room type
Record highest rental volume
Despite seeing a continuation in
the rise of rental volumes, overall
rents have been coming down,
resonating the woes of a tenants’
market. Higher rental volumes may
be a result of the combination of
tenants signing shorter leases to
take advantage of falling rents as
well as the tenants moving from
the private residential sector for
cost savings.
Source: HDB, OrangeTee Research
See terms of use on last page.
Page 2 | 4
| Singapore | Residential |
Exhibit 1: HDB Resale Price Index
Exhibit 4: Top and Bottom 5 performers 2Q16 (Based on Resale Transactions)
| Singapore | Residential |
Source: HDB, OrangeTee Research
Exhibit 5: HDB Towns median resale price by room type
Town
Bishan
Bukit Merah
3-Room
Median
QoQ
Resale
Absolute
Price
Change
*
$0
$365,000
$15,000
4-Room
Median
QoQ
Resale
Absolute
Price
Change
$575,000
$30,000
$642,500
$37,500
5-Room
Median
QoQ
Resale
Absolute
Price
Change
$752,000
$13,000
$776,000
$26,000
Central
Central
Central
Central
Central
Bukit Timah
Central
Geylang
Kallang/Whampoa
Marine Parade
*
*
$290,000
$354,000
*
$0
$0
$15,000
$12,000
$0
*
$620,000
$647,500
$575,000
*
$0
$0
$190,000
$2,500
$0
*
*
*
$787,500
*
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
Central
Central
North
North
North
North-East
North-East
North-East
North-East
North-East
East
East
East
West
West
West
West
West
West
Queenstown
Toa Payoh
Sembawang
Woodlands
Yishun
Ang Mo Kio
Hougang
Punggol
Sengkang
Serangoon
Bedok
Pasir Ris
Tampines
Bukit Batok
Bukit Panjang
Choa Chu Kang
Clementi
Jurong East
Jurong West
$368,000
$310,000
$270,000
$290,000
$318,000
$302,800
*
*
$315,000
$304,400
$330,000
$285,500
$290,000
*
$340,000
$304,000
$282,500
$10,000
$7,000
$0
-$6,500
$1,000
$0
$4,800
$0
$0
$0
$4,400
$0
$7,000
-$2,500
$5,000
$0
$10,000
$4,000
-$2,500
$685,000
$620,000
$363,000
$358,000
$370,000
$468,000
$380,000
$445,000
$415,900
$434,500
$399,800
$405,000
$423,000
$408,000
$359,000
$357,000
$500,000
$420,000
$380,000
$5,000
$110,000
-$3,000
-$2,000
$10,000
$3,000
-$3,900
$10,000
$5,900
-$32,500
-$200
$3,000
-$400
$8,000
$2,400
$5,000
-$14,000
$15,000
-$4,000
$855,000
$702,000
$415,000
$430,000
$449,000
$650,000
$490,000
$450,000
$450,000
$529,000
$540,000
$470,000
$525,000
*
$456,500
$413,200
*
*
$455,000
$0
$0
-$1,500
$5,000
-$11,000
-$30,000
-$10,000
$0
-$5,000
$0
-$33,000
-$5,000
-$1,500
$0
$1,500
-$3,300
$0
$0
-$25,000
Date
2Q16
Region
Central
Central
Source: HDB, OrangeTee Research
( * ) refer to cases where there are less than 15 resale transactions recorded
( - ) refer to cases where there are no resale transactions
See terms of use on last page.
Page 3 | 4
| Singapore | Residential |
Exhibit 6: HDB Towns median rents by room type
Source: HDB, OrangeTee Research
( * ) refer to cases where there are less than 15 rental transactions recorded
( - ) refer to cases where there are no rental transactions
Exhibit 7: HDB Towns estimated rental yields by room type
Source: HDB, OrangeTee Research
Page 4 | 4
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