Every week, Candlewood Partners will be posting "Economic Indicators" to give you a quick snapshot of the numbers affecting your business...
Prior Period
Dec
Current
Jan
215,000
238,000
Business Inventories
0.7%
0.4%
Construction Spending
0.8%
1.0%
Consumer Price Index
0.0%
0.3%
Durable Goods Orders (US)
3.5%
Economic Indicator
ADP Employment Report (US)
Payroll
Unemployment
Work week
203,000
74,000
7.0%
6.7%
34.5 hrs
34.4 hrs
Private Payrolls
196,000
87,000
Existing Home Sales
4.820 M
4.870 M
Factory Orders (US)
-­‐0.9%
1.8%
Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure (US)
-­‐25
19
Gallup US Job Creation Index (US)
20
19
Industrial Production
1.1%
0.3%
Utilization Rate
79.0%
79.2%
Manufacturing
0.6%
0.4%
Leading Indicators
0.8%
0.1%
445,000
414,000
Net Home Sales (US)
Change
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Source: http://bloomberg.econoday.com
Beige Book:
Highlights
The latest Beige Book stated that the economy expanded at a "moderate pace," according to nine of 12 Fed Districts.
Among these, the Atlanta and Chicago Districts saw conditions improve compared with the previous reporting period.
Boston and Philadelphia cited modest growth, while Kansas City reported the economy held steady in December.
The economic outlook is positive in most Districts, with some reports citing expectations of "more of the same" and
some expecting a pickup in growth.
The Beige Book somewhat calls into question the most recent employment report which was very disappointing. Twothirds of Districts noted increases in hiring; the Richmond District cited "numerous reports of strong labor demand."
According to the Beige Book, the consumer sector is showing improvement. Three-quarters of the Districts indicated
that retail activity had increased since the last Beige Book report. The exceptions were St. Louis and Kansas City,
where retail results were mixed, and the Richmond District, which cited a softening of retail sales. Richmond, Atlanta,
and San Francisco noted strong auto sales.
Manufacturing is gaining momentum. Reports from the 12 Districts generally painted a picture of steady growth in
manufacturing. All but one District reported both growing sales and an optimistic outlook; only Kansas City reported a
decline in manufacturing production and shipments in December, although activity remained above year-earlier
levels.
District reports on commercial real estate contained much good news, although performance within some Districts
was uneven across locations and property types. Residential real estate loans declined in the New York, Cleveland,
Atlanta, Chicago, and Kansas City Districts, mostly due to slowdowns in refinancing activity rather than in new
purchase loan applications; in fact, the latter have slightly increased in some Districts.
Most District reports indicated that wage and price pressures were contained and did not present major problems for
local contacts.
Overall, the Beige Book points to an improving economy although inflation remains very sluggish. Today's report
suggests continued taper of Fed bond purchases at the January 28-29 FOMC meeting unless weak inflation takes on
a higher priority (boosting prices).