17
Project
Management
Homework; 1b, 4b, 5b, Sup1,
Sup2
Sup1 Homework Problem
For the project depicted below:
a. How long is the project expected to take?
b. What is the probability that the project will complete within 14 weeks?
c. Determine the critical path and slack for all activities.
Activity
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
Pred
none
none
none
A
B
C
D
E,F,G
to
tm
2
5
7
1
2
4
1
2
tp
4
8
9
2
4
4
1
2
6
11
17
3
12
4
1
2
17-2
Sup2 Homework Problem
For the project depicted below:
a. Draw the AON diagram. What is the expected completion time?
b. What is the probability of completing the project within 21 days?
c. What is the probability of completing the project within 17 days?
d. What is the probability the project will take more than 17 days?
Activity
A
B
C
D
E
Predessors
none
none
A
A
B,D
Optimistic
5
4
5
2
4
Most Likely
8
8
6
4
7
Pessimistic
11
11
7
6
10
17-3
Projects
Unique, one-time operations designed to accomplish a
specific set of objectives in a limited time frame.
• An interrelated set of activities that has a defined starting and ending points and
that results in unique outcomes.
• Involves resources and allocation of resources.
17-4
Project Management
 What are the Key Metrics
 Time
 Cost
 Performance objectives
 What are the Key Success Factors?





Top-down commitment
Having a capable project manager
Having time to plan
Careful tracking and control
Good communications
17-5
Project Management
 What are the Major Administrative Issues?
 Executive responsibilities
 Project selection
 Project manager selection
 Organizational structure
 Organizational alternatives
 Manage within functional unit
 Assign a coordinator
 Use a matrix organization with a project leader
17-6
Project Management
 What are the tools?




Work breakdown structure
Network diagram
Gantt charts
Risk management
17-7
Planning and Scheduling
Gantt Chart
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Locate new
facilities
Interview staff
Hire and train staff
Select and order
furniture
Remodel and install
phones
Move in/startup
17-8
Key Decisions
 Deciding which projects to implement
 Selecting a project manager
 Selecting a project team
 Planning and designing the project
 Managing and controlling project
resources
 Deciding if and when a project should be
terminated
17-9
Project Manager
Responsible for:
Work
Human Resources
Communications
Quality
Time
Costs
17-10
Resource requirements
Project Life Cycle
Definition
and
organization
Start
Planning
Execution
Time
Close out
Finish
17-11
Work Breakdown Structure
Figure 17.2
Project X
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
17-12
The Network Diagram
 Network (precedence) diagram – diagram of
project activities that shows sequential
relationships by the use of arrows and nodes.
 Activity-on-arrow (AOA) – a network diagram
convention in which arrows designate activities.
 Activity-on-node (AON) – a network diagram
convention in which nodes designate activities.
 Activities – steps in the project that consume
resources and/or time.
 Events – the starting and finishing of activities,
designated by nodes in the AOA convention. 17-13
The Network Diagram (cont’d)
 Path
 Sequence of activities that leads from the starting
node to the finishing node
 Critical path
 The longest path; determines expected project
duration
 Critical activities
 Activities on the critical path
 Slack
 Allowable slippage for path; the difference the
length of path and the length of critical path
17-14
Time Estimates
 Deterministic
 Time estimates that are fairly certain
 Probabilistic
 Estimates of times that allow for variation
17-15
Probabilistic Time Estimates
 Optimistic time
 Time required under optimal conditions
 Pessimistic time
 Time required under worst conditions
 Most likely time
 Most probable length of time that will be
required
17-16
Expected Time
te
t
+
4t
+t
o
m
p
=
6
te = expected time
to = optimistic time
tm = most likely time
tp = pessimistic time
17-17
Variance
2
2
(t
–
t
)
= p o
36
2 = variance
to = optimistic time
tp = pessimistic time
17-18
Path Probabilities
Z =
Specified time – Path mean
Path standard deviation
Z indicates how many standard deviations
of the path distribution the specified tine
is beyond the expected path duration.
17-19
Project Management Software







Computer aided design (CAD)
Groupware (Lotus Notes)
CA Super Project
Harvard Total Manager
MS Project
Sure Track Project Manager
Time Line
17-20
Advantages of PM Software
 Imposes a methodology
 Provides logical planning structure
 Enhances team communication
 Flag constraint violations
 Automatic report formats
 Multiple levels of reports
 Enables what-if scenarios
 Generates various chart types
17-21
Developing the schedule
• Determine all paths and their estimated times
• Determine the critical path
• Determine ES and EF times (forward pass)
• Determine LS and LF times (backward pass)
• Late Finish (LF)
The latest start time of the activity immediately following it
The earliest of the following activities LS times
17-22
Probabilistic AON Example
For the project depicted below:
a. How long is the project expected to take?
b. What is the probability that the project will complete within 23 weeks?
c. Determine the critical path and slack for all activities.
Activity
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
Pred
none
none
B
A
A,C
B
E,F
to
tm
1
2
3
6
3
6
1
tp
4
6
3
13
6
8
5
7
7
6
14
12
16
6
17-23
Example
4.0
8.0
0.0
4.0
A
4.0
Start
B
5.5
12.0
16.0
20.0
Finish
9.0
9.0
4.0
8.0
5.5
5.5
0.0
0.0
D
C
3.5
15.5
15.5
F
9.0
6.5
15.5
15.5
9.0
9.0
5.5
5.5
5.5
6.5
E
G
4.5
20.0
20.0
14.5
15.5
17-24