Photovoltaic Systems as
Actuators of Regional Development
Closing Conference
HAS CERS Institute for Regional Studies
Osijek, 23. June 2014.
Economic modelling and evaluation
of photovoltaic panels
Andrea, SUVÁK
Sándor Zsolt, KOVÁCS
HAS CERS Institute for Regional Studies
Transdanubian Research Department
HAS CERS Institute for Regional Studies
Analysis of direct economic effects
•
•
•
•
•
Background of the analysis, data
Model
Results
Evaluation
Scenarios
2
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Direct economic effects
3
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Direct economic effects
• Who can profit?
• Analysis for two kinds of actors:
– Households
• Electricity production and sale
• Own consumption
– Investors (solar parks)
• Electricity sale
4
Data and sources
Technical data, parameters
HAS CERS Institute for Regional Studies
Average annual energy production
PV panel capacity
PV panel unit price
Inverter unit price
Panel life-cycle, capacity reduction
Inverter lifetime
Measurement results by the University of
Osijek, ETFOS
Technical specifications
Price offers
Based on the Photon mbH dataset
Based on the study by Jordan and Kurtz
(2013)
Based on technical parameters 12.5 years
System installation costs
Cost charged for central network connection
Practical experience
Price fixed in Croatia (1.400 EUR) while no
such cost exists in Hungary
Internal system, cost of system construction
Experience-based determination (by
business undertakings executing
construction) of 20% of the cost incurred
for the complete system
Annual maintenance costs
Experience-based determination (by
business undertakings executing
construction) of 20% of annual revenue
5
HAS CERS Institute for Regional Studies
Data and sources
Price and other data
Retail price of electricity
Electricity price trends, regulations
Electricity incentive prices
National legal regulations, directives
Average electricity consumption of a Literature (4.430 kWh)
household
Annual inflation rate
Complying with the European Union
expectations: 3%
Whole investigation period
According to long-term vision 25 years
6
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Prices
HU
HR
Retail price of electricity
(for domestic use)
13 euro cents/kWh
14 euro cents/kWh
Electricity transmission
rates
- 11,4 euro cents/kWh
(household)
- 10,8 euro cents/kWh
(investor)
- 25 euro cents/kWh
(household)
- 20 euro cents/kWh
(investor)
7
HAS CERS Institute for Regional Studies
Performance and investment costs
Monocrystal panel
(T1)
Plicrystal panel
(T2)
CIS panel (T3)
Amorphous
sylicobn panel (T4)
Panasonic
monocrystal panel
(T5)
Performance of one
panel (W)
Yearly
performance loss
(%)
Cost of one panel
(EUR)
250
0,23
200
250
0,59
207
150
0,02
142
100
0,95
83
240
0,23
258
8
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Concept of model
E
v
a
l
u
a
t
i
o
n
Input data
Results
Methodology
Dimensions
9
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Methodology
• Real, inflation-adjusted and specific profit
𝑛
𝑛
𝑇𝜋 =
𝜋𝑡𝐷
𝐷
𝜋𝑡
𝑇𝜋 =
𝑡=1
𝑡=1
𝑇𝜋 𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐
𝑇𝜋 𝐷
=
𝑃
• Net present value (NPV)
𝑛
𝑁𝑃𝑉 =
𝑡=1
𝜋𝑡
1+𝑟
𝑡
− 𝐶0
• Pay-back time (NPV=0)
• Levelised Cost of Electricity Generation
𝑛 𝐼𝑡
𝑡=1
𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸 =
+ 𝑀𝑡 + 𝑂𝑡
1+𝑟 𝑡
𝐸𝑡 + 𝑆𝑡
𝑛
𝑡=1 1 + 𝑟 𝑡
10
HAS CERS Institute for Regional Studies
Additional information of calculating
• Different price policy and costs in HU and HR
• Ways of profit calculating – higher profitability in
Croatia, but more expensive investment
• More possibilities for „optimum”– depending on
priorities
11
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Results
Family house systems
12
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Profits
13
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NPV and pay-back time
14
HAS CERS Institute for Regional Studies
Cost/Benefit rates
LCOE T1,HR 0.687
LCOE T1,HU 0.657
LCOE T2,HR 0.696
LCOE T2,HU 0.668
LCOE T3,HR 0.737
LCOE T3,HU 0.718
LCOE T4,HR 0.697
LCOE T4,HU 0.669
LCOE T5,HR 0.780
LCOE T5,HU 0.772
15
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Results
Energy investors
16
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Profits
17
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NPV and pay-back time
18
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Cost/Benefit rates
LCOE T1,HR 56.7968%
LCOE T1,HU 75.9220%
LCOE T2,HR 57.3892%
LCOE T2,HU 75.4203%
LCOE T3,HR 59.9494%
LCOE T3,HU 75.4251%
LCOE T4,HR 57.4281%
LCOE T4,HU 75.4199%
LCOE T5,HR 62.7225%
LCOE T5,HU 75.4302%
19
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Evaluation and ranking
• What is the priority of evaluation?
– Profitability: CIS panel (T3) is best
– Net present value or pay-back time: optimal choice is
monocristalline panel (T1)
– Cost/Benefit rate: T1 for home system and Croatian
energy investors and T4 for Hungarian power plants
20
Possibilities of modification - Scenarios
HAS CERS Institute for Regional Studies
Croatia
Panel type
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
Home system
production
Low-scale
power plant
Hungary
Home system
production
Increase in consumer price (+5%)
-1.0
0
-1.8
-1.0
0
-1.2
-0.8
0
-2.0
-1.0
0
-3.0
-1.1
0
-2.5
Transmission price reduction (-15%)
0.7
1.9
2.4
0.9
2.2
2.7
0.8
3.3
2.7
1.0
4.1
3.2
0.8
3.7
2.4
Technological development
-0.5
-1.2
-1.7
-0.6
-1.3
-2.0
-0.6
-1.2
-1.8
-0.6
-1.0
-2.3
-0.7
-1.4
-2.2
Low-scale
power plant
0
0
0
0
0
4.3
5.2
4.3
5.5
4.2
-2.4
-2.9
-3.4
-3.5
-2.7
21
Photovoltaic Systems as
Actuators of Regional Development
Closing Conference
HAS CERS Institute for Regional Studies
Osijek, 23. June 2014.
Thank you for your attention!
Andrea, SUVÁK
[email protected]
Sándor Zsolt, KOVÁCS
[email protected]