Report title
Agenda item
Topic report: long term fire trends for Greater London
Meeting
Date
Performance Management & Community Safety Panel
14 September 2009
Report by
Document Number
Head of Strategy and Performance
PMC 67
5
Public
Summary
This report brings together data from a range of sources to compile a continuous time series of data for the
number of fires in London since Greater London was formally created in April 1965. It has been prepared in
the context of headline target setting to give Members (and others) a clearer insight into how London, and
fires in London, has changed over the past four decades.
Recommendation
That the report be received.
Background
1. The performance management panel have received a series of ‘thematic reports’ which, as part of an
agreed programme, reported the more detailed information that underpinned many of the incident types
on which performance was measured. When the last of the thematic reports was received, Members
agreed that rather than fixing a further annual cycle of reports, a new series of ‘topic reports’ would start.
By not having a pre-planned series – where the reports being considered were not always pertinent to the
issues of the moment – topic reporting would allow for current issues to be tabled.
2. This topic report has been prepared in the context of headline target setting so that Members (and others)
have a clearer understanding of how London, and fires in London, has changed since 1966.
Introduction
3. The Greater London area was formally defined and created by the London Government Act 1963, which
came into force on 1 April 1965. This new area replaced the former administrative counties of Middlesex
and London (London County Council), adding the City of London and absorbing parts of Kent, Surrey,
Essex and Hertfordshire.
4. Greater London covers a geographic area of 1,579 km2 and in 1966 had an estimated resident population
of 7.8 million people.
5. From 1966 to 1992 the Greater London Council (GLC) and then later the London Research Centre
published 24 volumes of an “Annual Abstract of Greater London Statistics”. This report uses those initial
reports, together with a range of other sources, to compile a continuous time series of fire data from 1966
to the present. The data is presented in calendar years (rather than financial years used for performance
reporting) and includes estimated data for periods where detailed records were not available.
Fires in the context of all incidents
6. The appendix of this report focuses solely on the number of fires in London. It is however worth setting
out here how fires sit within the total number of all incidents attended.
7. Back in 1966 the LFB attended 55,516 incidents of which fires made up 55% (30,436). The most number of
incidents attended happened in 1990 when over 190,000 incidents were attended that year – nearly four
times as many as the incidents in 1966. In 2008, 130,942 incidents were attended of which fires made up
only 21% (29,735) of the total incidents.
8. This change in the profile of incidents is mainly due to an increase in the number of false alarms caused by
automatic fire alarm systems and an increase in special service incidents (which includes shut in lift
incidents). But the Brigade has changed by more than just the numbers and profile of its incidents. The
threat of terrorism since the bombings of 9/11 and 7/7 has influenced the role of the fire service and the
range of skills and equipment used by firefighters across a vast range of incident types has continued to
grow.
9. The proportion of fires as a percentage of all incidents attended is shown in the graph below. There is no
figure for 1977 due to the national fire strike that year. Overall the proportion of fires is reducing – this is
less due to a reduction in the number of fires (which for most of the 42 years has stayed fairly constant at
around 46,000 fires per year) but to the increasing number of other incidents attended.
All fires as a percentage of all incidents attended
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
1968
1967
1966
0%
Main findings
10. The main findings of this report are that;
The number of all fires is lower at the end of 2008 (29,735) than at any other time during the existence
of Greater London. This is less than half the greatest number of fires (63,524) which occurred in 1976.
Since 2003 (which had the second highest number of fires), the number of fires have continuously
reduced.
London’s population declined between 1966 and 1988 (from 7.8 million people to 6.7 million people)
and has increased steadily since (to 7.5 million people in 2007).
Fire deaths in 2008 (46) are more than four times lower than the high numbers in 1987 (193) and 1980
(196).
The rate of fire death (deaths per million people) ranges from 28 (1981) to 7 (2007).
Primary fires have continued to reduce since 2001.
There has been an increase of almost one million households in London, yet the rate of dwelling fires
has remained fairly constant (at around 3 dwelling fires per 1,000 households) and has been reducing
since 2003.
Chimney fires have reduced from more than ten a day to one chimney fire every three to four days.
Year-on-year, secondary fires can change by as much as 20,000 incidents or as little as 200. On average
secondary fires change by around 5,000 incident each year.
High numbers of secondary fires coincide with years with long dry spells and/or hot summers which
cause many more grass fires.
A note about data
11. This report compiles the best available data on the number for fires attended for the 42 years from 1966 to
2008. The report acknowledges that definitions for data recording have changed over that period and so
direct year-on-year comparisons are not always comparing the same data. Fully electronic incident
recording was only introduced in 1999 (with the introduction of IRIS) and IRIS was only directly feed with
in formation form the ProCad mobilising system in 2002/03. Data prior to 1999 was obtained from manual
data entry systems.
Authority’s Strategic Objectives
12. The Authority’s strategic objectives include the reduction in fires. This report improves our understanding
of when fires have occurred and demonstrates that the increased focus of resources on prevention work
since early 2000 coincide with sustained reductions in the number of fires.
Head of Legal and Democratic Services comments
13. The Head of Legal and Democratic Services has been consulted upon this report and has no comments to
make upon it.
Head of Finance Comments
14. The Head of Finance has been consulted upon this report and has no comments to make upon it.
Consultation undertaken
15. There was no specific consultation undertaken on this report.
Environmental Implications
16. There are no direct environment implications arising from this report.
Equalities Implications
17. There are no direct equalities implications arising from this report.
List of Appendices to this report:
Long term fire trends for Greater London
LOCAL GOVERNMENT (ACCESS TO INFORMATION) ACT 1985
List of background documents
1. Fire Statistics: United Kingdom (various CLG publications and data)
2. Annual abstract of Greater London Statistics (GLC publication between 1996 and 1991)
3. Clean Air Act 1958
4. Fire Facts – LFCDA 1996
Proper officer
David Wyatt – Head of Information Management
Contact officer
Telephone
Email
Andy Mobbs
020 8555 1200 ext 30386
[email protected]
Long term fire trends for Greater London
This topic report looks at the number of fires in London since the formal creation
of the Greater London area in April 1965.
Introduction
The Greater London area was formally defined and created by the London Government Act 1963,
which came into force on 1 April 1965. This new area replaced the former administrative counties of
Middlesex and London (London County Council), adding the City of London and absorbing parts of
Kent, Surrey, Essex and Hertfordshire.
Greater London covers a geographic area of 1,579 km2 and in 1966 had an estimated resident
population of 7.8 million people.
From 1966 to 1992 the Greater London Council (GLC) and then later the London Research Centre
published 24 volumes of an “Annual Abstract of Greater London Statistics”. This report uses those initial
reports, together with a range of other sources, to compile a continuous time series of fire data from
1966 to the present. The data is presented in calendar years, and includes estimated data for periods
where detailed records were not available.
All Fires
In compiling the time series of data for fires in Greater London the most complete data available has
been that for the ‘total number of fires’
All fires
LFB Data
Other source or estimate
58,288
55,069
33,172
29,735
40,509
40,933
37,172
48,564
2000
48,560
47,939
1999
46,984
41,528
55,919
51,824
47,705
1992
46,425
45,054
44,328
1991
57,861
57,030
1990
48,232
1989
46,487
51,299
50,715
1985
43,654
50,659
1984
45,215
1982
1983
44,331
1981
46,645
36,851
44,136
51,539
49,142
46,047
48,159
1973
32,956
32,922
1968
30,436
30,000
1967
40,000
42,593
43,733
50,000
1972
51,835
60,000
52,331
63,524
70,000
20,000
10,000
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1988
1987
1986
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1971
1970
1969
1966
0
The only gap in the series (where data has been approximated) is 1977 when, due to the national
firefighters strike in November and December 1977, data was only recorded until the end of October of
LFB | Information Management
5
April 2009
that year. There was other industrial action during the mid 1970’s1 and further national fire strikes in
2002 and 20032, but during these periods data on the number of fires was collected.
In 1966 the number of fires was 30,436 and the yearly total remained above 30,000 for 42 years until
2008 when the number reduced to 29,735.
For most of the past 42 years the total number of fires has fluctuated between 40,000 and 50,000
incidents. The years where the total number of fires exceeds 50,000 (and more than 60,000 in 1976)
coincide with years with long dry spells and/or hot summers which cause many more grass fires.
While numbers have fluctuated, the downward trend of five years from 2003 to 2008 is the longest
running continuous trend downward over the whole period.
Population
The peak of London’s population is estimated to be around 8.6 million in 1939. In 1966 the population
of Greater London was 7.8 million. That population declined to around 6.7 million in 1988 and has
increased steadily since. By 2007 the estimated resident population was 7.5 million people. Population
projections for 2026 estimate the population to rise to be between 8.3 and 8.6 million people.
London resident population (mid-year estimate, thousands)
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
1968
1967
1966
0
The statistical relationship between the number of fires and the resident population is very weak (a
correlation value of -0.2339). However, using population as a baseline shows that on average
Londoners have experienced 6.6 fires per 1,000 resident population. At the end of 2007 the rate was
4.4 fires per 1,000 resident population. The rate of fires per population was slightly lower in 1966 than it
was for 2008.
1
27 October - 13 November 1969; 28 September - 4 October and 16 December 1970 - 1 February 1971; 12-20
July 1972; 20 October - 20 November 1973; 27 February - 4 March, 14-20 March, 1-4 April, 1-2 May, 23-30
October, 17-18 December 1974; 12 May -17 august 1975 and at various times during 1976
2
13 November – 15 November and 22 November -29 November 2002; 21 January and 28 January – 29 January
and 1 February – 2 February 2003.
6
Fires per 1,000 resident population (mid-year estimate)
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
1968
1967
1966
0
Fire deaths
The most fire deaths occurred in 1980 (196 fire deaths) and 1987 (193 fire deaths) and, with the
exception of the strike year in 1977, fire deaths remained steadily above 120 deaths per year up until
the 1990’s. For more than 10 years fire deaths have been below 100 per year and in 2008 there were
only 46 – which is more than 4 times lower than the peak in 1980.
Fire deaths
LFB Data
Other source or estimate
193
196
200
179
177
1975
133
146
124
93
88
2002
46
53
55
62
62
60
59
70
80
87
100
2001
108
121
151
125
120
129
139
1973
135
138
1972
150
127
142
140
154
164
167
154
164
160
1974
180
40
20
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1971
1970
1969
1968
1967
1966
-
The rate of fire deaths per million people (resident population) also continues to fall. The rate is highest
in 1981 (when the population was at its lowest) at around 28 fire deaths per million people whereas by
2008 the rate had reduced to only 7 fire deaths per million people3.
3
The national performance indicator NI49 calculates the rate of fire death per 100,000 population. The figures in
this report are calculated per million population to make the chart easier to understand.
7
Fire deaths per million resident population (mid-year estimate)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
1968
1967
1966
0
Primary fires
The classification of fires as either ‘primary’ or ‘secondary’ was introduced in 1977. Primary fires are
broadly defined as fires in buildings, vehicles and outdoor structures or any fire involving casualties,
rescues or fires attended by five or more appliances. From 1994 the definition was broadened to include
the small number of fires where there is no fire damage but there was damage from heat or smoke.
Primary fires
LFB Data
Other source or estimate
13,486
14,191
15,399
15,000
16,200
20,101
2003
17,813
20,277
22,654
2001
2002
22,336
2000
21,918
20,164
1997
19,708
20,421
1996
19,903
19,093
21,920
23,167
1989
22,671
23,049
22,349
22,536
1986
1988
22,591
1985
21,356
19,571
20,370
20,000
20,979
25,000
10,000
5,000
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
1999
1998
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1987
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
1968
1967
1966
0
The chart shows the number of primary fires since 1966. As the primary and secondary fire classification
wasn’t introduced until 1977, data for the period before is an approximation based on the current
definition applied to the detailed data collected at the time.
8
On average primary fires fluctuate by less than 900 incidents per year. The numbers appear to increase
from 1966 until the high of 1987 (23,167). A slight decrease occurs over the next five years, but this
trend reverses until 2001, in which the third highest numbers of dwelling fires occurred (22,654).
The longest sustained downward trend (seven years) starts in 2001with primary fires decreasing to their
lowest levels at the end of 2008. This low mirrors the decrease seen with ‘all fires’.
Dwelling fires
Most of the data for the numbers of dwelling fires – fires in houses, flats and other private households –
come from those published by the Department for Communities and Local Government (CLG). This
data, which is prepared by their fire statistics division, is based on a sample of data taken from Fire
Damage Reports (FDR1) submitted by brigades. For London the sample included all incidents where
there were fire casualties and a random sample of around 20 percent (1 in 5 FDR1 forms).
Over the period, dwelling fires have seen an average yearly fluctuation of 346 fires a year. The largest
yearly change occurred in 1972 with an increase of 1,258 fires from 1971. The greatest number of
dwelling fires occurred in 2000 with 9,155 fires.
The pattern of dwelling fires is very similar to that for primary fires with peaks around 1988 and 2000
(compared with 1989 and 2001 for primary fires). However, unlike primary fires, the decrease in
dwelling fires recent years has yet to reduce below the levels of 1966.
Dwelling fires
LFB Data
Other source or estimate
6,735
6,622
2007
2008
7,311
7,213
2006
6,068
2005
8,634
8,034
7,984
9,155
8,916
9,056
7,144
8,110
1973
7,843
7,977
1972
7,012
6,719
7,043
6,679
6,000
6,465
7,000
6,525
8,000
2000
9,000
1999
10,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
2004
2003
2002
2001
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1971
1970
1969
1968
1967
1966
-
While the numbers of dwelling fires haven’t yet reduced below the levels found in 1966, the rate of
dwelling fires (per household) is at its lowest level.
Unlike population figures, the number of households in Greater London has steadily increased since
1966. In 1966 the number of households was around 2.2 million. By 2008 this had increased by almost
one million homes to 3.1 million (a 42 percent increase).
The General household Survey has documented the major changes in households, families and people
which have occurred over the last 30 years. These include the decline in average household size and
the growth in the proportion of the population who live alone, the increase in the proportion of families
headed by a lone parent and in the percentage of people who are cohabiting.
9
In 1961 the average household size for the United Kingdom was 3.1 people per home. By 2000 this had
reduced to 2.4 people per home4.
London number of households (thousands)
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
1968
1967
1966
0
As is the case with population figures and all fires, there is a weak link between the number of
households and the number of dwelling fires (a correlation value of 0.2562).
However, comparing the rate of dwelling fires (the number of dwelling fires per 1,000 households)
show that against the continuous increase in households, the number of dwelling fires has remained
fairly constant at around 3 fires per 1,000 households.
Dwelling fires per 1,000 households
London
United Kingdon
4
3
2
1
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
1968
1967
1966
0
This compares favourably when compared with the figures for the whole of the United Kingdom as
London has maintained a rate below the national rate since 1973. The rate of dwelling fires is lower in
2008 than at any other time since 1966.
4
Source: Labour Force Survey ONS
10
Chimney fires
Back in 1966 fires in chimneys were very frequent, with more than 10 a day occurring in London. Due to
the frequency of chimney fires at that time (and previous) these fires were recorded separately to all
other fires and with very little detail. Between 1966 and 1974 chimney fires reduced at a rate of over
500 a year and by 1998 had dropped to below 100 (equivalent to one chimney fire every 3 to 4 days).
Chimney fires
LFB Data
Other source or estimate
3,936
4,000
4,343
4,500
3,602
3,500
2,521
2,500
2,417
3,013
3,000
1,813
2,000
67
51
68
2006
2007
2008
72
56
2005
69
2003
2004
86
60
2002
2000
2001
95
85
1999
124
99
1998
257
1991
1997
261
204
1990
1988
1989
419
394
1987
544
1984
430
439
1983
1986
502
484
1982
581
538
1981
1979
1980
703
655
1978
964
700
500
1977
1976
1,108
1,008
1,000
1975
1,451
1,500
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1985
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
1968
1967
1966
0
In the 1950’s and 1960’s open fires were a common means of household heating. However the air
pollution from the use of coal and wood fuels caused smog – most notable of which was the ‘Great
London Smog of December 1952’. In response the Government introduced its first Clean Air Act in
1956. This Act aimed to control domestic sources of smoke pollution by introducing smokeless zones,
where smokeless fuels had to be burnt. This requirement encouraged many households to change
either to smokeless coals, but more significantly to gas or electric heating systems which are
acknowledged to be the influence behind the dramatic decrease in chimney fires.
Secondary fires
Secondary fires have the most volatile trends of all the fire incident types. Secondary fires include fires
in rubbish and open land and grass fires. Year-on-year changes are, on average, around 5,000 incidents
per year but that change can be as great as 20,000 or less than 200.
The most secondary fires occurred in 1976 with 42,772 incidents (estimated figure as the secondary fire
classification wasn’t introduced until 1977). This is acknowledged as being due to the very dry and hot
summer which led to a drought across the UK. Over 12,000 grass fires were recorded that year, but that
figure could be higher as no details were recorded of the circumstances in which fires started during
industrial action that year.
Dry summers feature elsewhere in the pattern of secondary fires with the summer heat-waves in 1995
and 2003 both causing in increase in secondary fires to above 35,000 in those years.
11
Secondary fires
LFB Data
Other source or estimate
45,000
18,930
15,000
16,153
24,251
21,702
23,046
26,140
2000
28,221
25,926
1999
21,721
26,606
28,461
31,238
32,326
35,878
23,422
1992
26,185
22,877
1991
34,433
34,155
1990
24,789
1989
23,521
20,000
20,886
29,504
27,580
29,196
25,000
1984
26,493
30,000
1983
31,306
35,000
38,114
40,000
10,000
5,000
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1988
1987
1986
1985
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
1968
1967
1966
0
The high numbers of secondary fires in 1969 and 1970 were attributed to industrial action by refuse
collectors during the periods 7 October - 8 November 1969 and 7 October - 19 November 1970.
Rubbish fires in these years were 12,538 and 22,387 compared with only 6,671 in 1968.
For the most part, secondary fires have been above 20,000 incidents per year. As with the trend for all
fires and for primary fires, secondary fires have been falling since 2005, although are not yet as low as
the estimated levels for 1966 and 1967.
Conclusion
The main findings of this report are that;
• The number of all fires is lower at the end of 2008 (29,735) than at any other time during the existence
of Greater London. This is less than half the greatest number of fires (63,524) which occurred in 1976.
• Since 2003 (which had the second highest number of fires), the number of fires have continuously
reduced.
• London’s population declined between 1966 and 1988 (from 7.8 million people to 6.7 million people)
and has increased steadily since (to 7.5 million people in 2007).
• Fire deaths in 2008 (46) are more than four times lower than the high numbers in 1987 (193) and 1980
(196).
• The rate of fire death (deaths per million people) ranges from 28 (1981) to 7 (2007).
• Primary fires have continued to reduce since 2001.
• There has been an increase of almost one million households in London, yet the rate of dwelling fires
has remained fairly constant (at around 3 dwelling fires per 1,000 households) and has been reducing
since 2003.
• Chimney fires have reduced from more than ten a day to one chimney fire every three to four days.
12
• Year-on-year, secondary fires can change by as much as 20,000 incidents or as little as 200. On
average secondary fires change by around 5,000 incident each year.
• High numbers of secondary fires coincide with years with long dry spells and/or hot summers which
cause many more grass fires.
Produced by Information Management | August 2009
13