The Death of the Hunch
Sasha Issenberg
Slate
MAY 22, 2012
Obama Ad Strategy
Obama 2012 Ad Strategy: Unconventional? Unwise?
“The Obama team has broken nearly every piece of received wisdom that
media consultants like to offer about the intensity and duration necessary
For television ads to be successful in the modern era.”
Obama Ad Strategy
Obama 2012 Ad Strategy: Unconventional? Unwise?
Ads by the Trickle: No Nationwide offensive
- a nine-state buy for a 60-second overview of Obama’s first-term
successes
- a Spanish-language health-care ad in Florida
- an English language ad about higher-education costs appearing in
Florida and in Nevada;
- a long ad about Bain Capital that reportedly cost less than $100,000
to place in markets across five states.
- a brief January broadcast-buy across six states focusing on energy,
ethics, and the Koch brothers.
Obama Ad Strategy
Odd Pattern Indicative of “Experimental Revolution”
Experiment-Informed Programs: EIP
The Obama campaign’s “experiment-informed programs” … are designed
to track the impact of campaign messages as voters process them in the real
world, instead of relying solely on artificial environments like focus groups
and surveys...”
Obama Ad Strategy
New Method: Randomized and Micro-targeted
“The method combines the two most exciting developments in
electioneering practice over the last decade:”
1. The use of randomized, controlled experiments (able to isolate
cause and effect in political activity)
2. Micro-targeting statistical models that can calculate the probability
a voter will hold a particular view based on hundreds of variables.
Obama Ad Strategy
Analyst Institute: Moving Beyond Hunches
The AI was formed in 2007 and had started using a variety of experimental
methods to test the effect of differing GOTV (Get Out the Vote)
strategies. They wanted to measure cause and effect, which has
traditionally been hard to do in a campaign setting.
Experimental Research Designs: AFL-CIO and EMILY’s List
“Experimenters would randomly assign voters to different get-outthe-vote treatments and measure after an election whether one group
turned out at a higher rate than the other.”
Obama Ad Strategy
AFL-CIO Example: Experimental Research Design:
The AFL-CIO wanted to test the causal effect of three different options for a
direct-mail attack on John McCain in 2008:
1. Agenda Mailer: focused on Economic-Policy
2. McBush Mailer: Linked Bush to McCain
3. Testimonial Mailer: McCain: War Hero, Yes. Voice for Workers No.
Obama Ad Strategy
AFL-CIO Example: Experimental Research Design: Agenda Mailer
IV: (Cause): Mailer
Post-test: DV: (Effect): Opinion (Poll)
Experimental Group
Sample: Units of Analysis
(randomly assigned)
Union Mailer
Ohio Union
Members
No Mailer
Control Group
Support
McCain (38%)
Support
McCain
(37.6%)
Compare
Results
1. Agenda Mailer: focused on McCain’s Economic-Policy
2. McBush Mailer: Linked Bush to McCain
3. Testimonial Mailer: McCain: War Hero, Yes. Voice for Workers No.
Obama Ad Strategy
AFL-CIO Example: Experimental Research Design: McBush Mailer
IV: (Cause): Mailer
Post-test: DV: (Effect): Opinion (Poll)
Experimental Group
Sample: Units of Analysis
(randomly assigned)
McBush Mailer
Ohio Union
Members
No Mailer
Control Group
Support
McCain (38%)
Support
McCain
(37.6%)
Compare
Results
1. Agenda Mailer: focused on McCain’s Economic-Policy
2. McBush Mailer: Linked Bush to McCain
3. Testimonial Mailer: McCain: War Hero, Yes. Voice for Workers No.
Obama Ad Strategy
AFL-CIO Example: Experimental Research Design: Testimonial Mailer
IV: (Cause): Mailer
Post-test: DV: (Effect): Opinion (Poll)
Experimental Group
Sample: Units of Analysis
(randomly assigned)
Testimonial
Mailer
Support
McCain (32%)
No Mailer
Support
McCain
(37.6%)
Ohio Union
Members
Control Group
Compare
Results
1. Agenda Mailer: focused on McCain’s Economic-Policy
2. McBush Mailer: Linked Bush to McCain
3. Testimonial Mailer: McCain: War Hero, Yes. Voice for Workers, No.
Obama Ad Strategy
Limits of Approach: No Micro-Targeting
“But the AFL was measuring only the average impact of each message
Across the entire swath that received it. What if certain types of people
were more likely to respond to specific messages than others?”
Obama Ad Strategy
EMILY’s List Example: Experimental Research Design:
The EMILY’s List wanted to test the causal effect of two different direct-mail
strategies in support of Robin Carnahan in Missouri in 2010:
1. Comparative Mailer: (Comparing Roy Blunt and Carnahan)
2. Negative Mailer: (Focusing on Roy Blunt’s vulnerabilities)
Micro-Targeting: Added Dimension
But, they also wanted to then study in-depth the groups of voters who were
impacted by the messaging.
Obama Ad Strategy
EMILY’s List Example: Experimental Research Design: Comp. Mailer
IV: (Cause): Mailer
Experimental Group
Sample: Units of Analysis
(randomly assigned)
Comparative
Mailer
Support
Carnahan
(37.3%)
No Mailer
Support
Carnahan
(35.3%)
Rural INDY
Women
Control Group
Post-test: DV: (Effect): Opinion (Poll)
Compare
Results
1. Comparative Mailer: (Comparing Roy Blunt and Carnahan)
2. Negative Mailer: (Focusing on Roy Blunt vulnerabilities)
Obama Ad Strategy
EMILY’s List Example: Experimental Research Design: Negative Mailer
IV: (Cause): Mailer
Experimental Group
Sample: Units of Analysis
(randomly assigned)
Negative
Mailer
Support
Carnahan
(38.3%)
No Mailer
Support
Carnahan
(35.3%)
Rural INDY
Women
Control Group
Post-test: DV: (Effect): Opinion (Poll)
Compare
Results
1. Comparative Mailer: (Comparing Roy Blunt and Carnahan)
2. Negative Mailer: (Focusing on Roy Blunts vulnerabilities)
Obama Ad Strategy
EMILY’s List Example: Micro-Targeting: Attribute-Mapping
What attributes distinguished those who were more likely to support
Carnahan after negative mail piece?
Attributes of Impacted Women: (Census Data).
- Average Annual household Income: $37,500-45,000: Support for
Carnahan increased by 10 points.
- Geography: those living in “Densest areas” most responsive
- Family: more likely to be a single parent.
Targeting Information: Such information enabled the EMILY’s List to
develop a highly refined list of who to send specific types of mail.