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OIREACHTAS
Joint Committee on Foreign Affairs and Trade.
Committee Room 1, Leinster House, Dublin 2
2.30pm, Wednesday 9 April 2014
The Current Situation in Ukraine
by
Francis M. O’Donnell
(former UN Resident Coordinator in Ukraine, 2004-2009)
Excellencies, Ladies and Gentlemen,
Let me begin by thanking the Chairman and members for the kind invitation to address the
Committee, sharing my perspective on the tragic situation in Ukraine. I am here in my
capacity as a private citizen, but with a direct experience and familiarity with Ukraine based
primarily on my service there as the United Nations Resident Coordinator/Representative,
responsibly for coordinating all UN agencies’ activities for development, during the period
2004 to 2009. My views are therefore my own, and I take full responsibility for them. I
compliment the motion on Ukraine carried in the Dail last week, in every respect.
I would also like to recognize H.E. Mr. Sergii Reva, Ukraine’s Ambassador to Ireland whom I
have come to know during this crisis, and whose previous presentation to this Committee on
5 March was not only erudite but accurate. He has adequately refuted Russian myths about
language issues, described ex-President Yanukovich’s manipulations, national betrayal, and
flight. He also correctly described the solid constitutional credentials and parliamentary
legitimacy of the current Government, led by democratically-elected members of the
Verkhovna Rada.
Unfortunately, however, Ambassador Reva’s refutations notwithstanding, some in Ireland and
in this House may still believe in the propagandistic myths about, I quote: the “political,
economic and military interference by US, EU, and Russia” unquote, a broad sweep of
reductivist and insidiously erroneous mis-representation, or the conundrum of the alleged
illegitimacy of the Kyiv regime; described by some as quote “unelected interim government,
no mandate to sign the EU agreement” unquote, when nothing could be further from the truth;
or that there was quote a “great deal of support for Crimea seceding” unquote, which polls
preceding this crisis clearly refute; or the issue of the status of the removal of the official
status of the Russian language, when in fact the acting President Turchynov declined to sign
that dubious bill, rendering the issue mute; or the alleged quote “huge increase in antisemitism” unquote, and the appeals by one rabbi for Jews to flee Ukraine, an appeal
disavowed by the majority of prominent rabbis, many of whom I know personally and whose
statements I can report to you in more detail. On the matter of the risks of fringe radicals of
neo-Nazi ilk and the inferred “rise of fascism”, I can also directly comment, having personally
led the “Diversity Initiative” that rallied the international and diplomatic communities behind
efforts to dampen such influence and tackle xenophobia, and having secured Presidential
influence and direct SBU and MFA action on the same many years ago. Other myths, such as
that “EU’s actions [have been] disastrous for Ukraine” ignore the reality that this crisis was
prompted by Russia, which actually waged an economic war for months against Ukraine prior
to ex-President Yanukovich’s volte-face on European integration.
I share fully the Ambassador’s alarm that Russia’s legislators have empowered Mr. Putin to
invade Ukraine. Worse, Russia’s resort to unilateralism to allegedly redress purported
grievances, whether on grounds of Ukrainian instability, or language, ethnicity, or political
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concerns, has to be utterly repudiated. If there was the slightest truth in Russia’s concerns,
why did it not recourse to established international instruments, such as the UN Security
Council, the Human Rights Council, the OSCE, or the Council of Europe? Russia must be
urged to return to multilateralism and diplomacy. At the same time, President Putin’s actions
can be understood as a direct result of his apparent admiration for the ideology of the late
Ivan Ilyn, the Russian legalist, monarchist and conservative, and an outright rejection of
Western liberalism, moral relativism, and individualism. Given Putin’s ambitions, Russia’s
actions seem therefore not only unashamedly imperial, but civilizational. But the ruling elite’s
influences are also seen by some to be bordering on fascist (but not Nazi), as influenced by
Aleksandr Dugin, ideologue of the Eurasian Union, and evidenced by the growth of the farright Russian youth movement. As for President Putin’s alleged links to oligarchic crime and
corruption, unfortunately as you may know, Cambridge University Press, has just withdrawn,
for fear of libel litigation in Britain, publication of a book by Karen Dawisha,
Since my tenure in Ukraine, I have kept in touch with many on the ground and in leadership
positions, and during the past several months of this crisis, I have privately networked to build
support and understanding for Ukraine’s true realities, often in the face of contrary
propaganda by its large neighbour. This has included four separate radio appearances in
Ireland as well on TV abroad, and direct contacts with former President Viktor Yushchenko,
his former first lady, and several former ministers, international civil society activists, policy
makers, and other former heads of state or government, such as ex-President Danilo Turk of
Slovenia. As a result, and subject to further developments, the Global Partnerships Forum
stands ready to engage in support of Ukraine’s partnership-building, and more specifically,
following my entreaties to the Elders, the group of distinguished former heads of state and
government, headed by Kofi Annan, I believe they are now planning to bring forward a
collective demarche to Moscow, which they had previously been planning to visit later this
year.
Why is this important? It is absolutely crucial that the strongest possible delegation of
distinguished former heads of state and/or government from around the world should engage
in force and in unison with the Russian authorities, both President Putin, and the legislative
branches of the Russian Federation. We are on the brink of a major conflagration in Europe. I
have had great concern about this for several months, expressed in my various
communications to the Irish Department of Foreign Affairs and to the UN Department of
Political Affairs. I wish I were wrong, but my regretful predictions as the weeks have gone by
has been sadly accurate, and I must express dismay that the latest report I have read last
night from the British Royal United Services Institute, on Ukraine Military Dispositions, is
extremely worrying.
When a regime systematically falsifies the truth, and asserts the contrary to all evidence
before our eyes, whether it is about an invasion it denies conducting, a pseudo-referendum
and illegal annexation denounced by a majority of the world's countries, and the denunciation
of its treaties with its neighbour, we should exercise grave caution and scepticism. The
hypocrisy and double-speak now emanating from Kremlin propaganda, whilst it flagrantly
denies its actions, should make us all think very seriously about what is really happening
behind the scenes. As one of Putin’s last remaining free-speaking domestic adversaries,
Boris Nemtsov, former Russian deputy prime minister, puts it yesterday on his FB blog:
“Putin and Lavrov urged the Ukrainian Government to hold fair elections for
Governors, giving autonomy to regions, to adopt a new Constitution with a federal
structure of the country, and to refrain from violent acts. And of course, to organize a
round table of the authorities and the opposition. However, this proposal came when
Russia itself [under Putin] abandoned elections for Governors, impoverished and
buried its federalism, and the dialogue between the Government and the society we
regularly see when riot militiamen beat and haul away peaceful demonstrators”.
So, is President Putin sincere? Can Russia be trusted?
The latest evidence points to the rampant corruption of that Russian regime, the progressive
erosion of the democratic rights of its own people, the hijacking of its media, the silencing of
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dissent, the arbitrary use of administrative powers to quell dissent, the demonisation of its
opponents as "traitors", and the emergence of ethno-religious cleansing in its most recent
territory conquered. Therefore, the international community should demand full access to
Crimea, currently occupied and annexed in flagrant violation of international and Ukrainian
law.
An international civilian monitoring presence is absolutely required to ensure that all
segments of Crimean society are able to exercise the full range of their civic and political
rights. It is also required as international witness to events, and as a disincentive to abuses of
human rights, and to prevent impunity for violations.
If the occupying power, Russia, fails to facilitate this, an external monitoring instrument should
be established to gather evidence of human rights abuses, war crimes, and crimes against
humanity, and to provide a feedback mechanism to the relevant international institutions
under the oversight of the UN and G-7, with a view to early pre-emptive action to deter further
violations or threats to international peace and security. We do not want a second Holocaust,
another war, or a rogue nuclear superpower.
Democracy can be manipulated: by information feed, hence by media and by restrictions to
access to information, or indeed by false propaganda; by arbitrary abuse of freedoms of
expression, debate, assembly, and association; by campaign finance, by corruption, and by
public apathy or worse, ignorance. And by conspiracy. Ukrainians for the past ten years have
struggled against such manipulation and have resisted such obstructions in favour of joining
the European mainstream. This is no arbitrary political choice, nor optional geostrategic
alignment to fall into one camp or another. Their aspiration is so deep that it is an insult to
them to be told their orientation is merely the product of western influence, of alleged billions
poured in, let alone of US funding of NGOs or EU fiscal bribery, as if they could be “bought
off” by such largesse. Nothing could be further from the truth, and those who cling to such
myths are either agents or victims of Kremlin propaganda. For that matter, US and EU funds
provided to Ukraine have mainly been used to strengthen civil society, and build institutions’
capacities in the best traditions of modern governance, and in programmes that reflect the
sovereign choice of Ukraine. The UN and other agencies, as well as other multi/bi-lateral
development partners have regularly collaborated with these programmes, within overall
frameworks of donor coordination and accountability, such as the OECD’s Paris Declaration
and the Busan Partnership.
In addition, throughout most of the past ten years until the latest unrest emerged, all the
governments of Ukraine, regardless of political flavour, and party make-up, have strongly
endorsed Ukraine’s aspiration to eventually adhere to the European Union. Furthermore, all
the principal parties have endorsed it too. In fact a study conducted during my tenure
indicated that – regardless of whether Ukraine would eventually join the EU or not – the mere
effort to absorb the Copenhagen Criteria and progressively adjust to and adapt the larger part
of the Acquis Communautaire, would for the most part, be the most effective anchor of
meaningful social, institutional, and economic reform, and the best guarantor of meeting not
only the Millennium Development Goals, but indeed the full spectrum of aspirations in the
Millennium Declaration. That study was undertaken under the direction of a former mayor of
Warsaw, and Polish minister once responsible for EU integration, who headed up our UN
Blue Ribbon policy advisory center in Ukraine.
What should now be the priority of the international community?
1. The international community has to ensure that the costs to the Russian Federation
are such that President Putin has no alternative other than to realize he miscalculated
his Crimean gambit;
2. Diplomacy must remain not only open but creative, exploring solutions “outside the
box”; Russia must not be pushed into such a corner that it feels more isolated and
can only fight back;
3. Therefore, there must be other options open to Russia that are attractive domestically
and internationally in a fast-changing environment where positions can and must
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shift, ultimately towards resolution based on political compromise that entails a “winwin” perception;
In this context, the “win-win” must be quadrilateral, as follows: for Ukraine, for Russia,
for Europe/EU, and for the USA/NATO. That is a tall order; therefore the EU
preparation for 4-party talks is absolutely the way to go, and last night’s
announcement that these will start next week is hardly a minute too soon.
It should also be a win-win for the international rule of law, for global and regional
security, for human rights and broad-based socio-economic progress.
It must lead quickly to an omnibus reform of the UN Security Council – so very long
overdue – as it is thoroughly unacceptable that any Big-5 nuclear-wielding power
should not only hold a veto over vital actions to preserve international peace and
security, but also be able to flagrantly violate the same. The current system of Big-5
permanent member vetos cannot continue. The Security Council must reflect the
realities of today, and be fit-for-purpose for emerging challenges of the present and
future, and not be stuck in a World War II time-warp.
Therefore, this crisis, should be seen as an opportunity on many levels and
dimensions, to strengthen the international system, the rules that underpin it, and the
instruments designed to uphold human dignity and preserve peace and security.
Ukraine is at a crossroads, and does not need foreign interference, invasion, occupation,
fragmentation, and annexation, nor for that matter, cultural condescension. Given recent
political events, and Russia’s annexation of Crimea (deemed illegal by the United Nations
General Assembly), Ukraine’s future trajectory is crucial for peace, stability and prosperity in
the region, and indeed across the globe, and requires a deepening of partnerships in its
neighbourhood and beyond. All of this necessitates a profound transformation in Ukraine’s
governance institutions, for which the political culture and social climate in Ukraine are now
amply matured as evidenced by recent changes, but also in Russia’s. Under the renewed
political momentum now in play, constitutional and institutional reforms can be accelerated, in
line with the recommendations of the Venice Commission and other international bodies.
What role can Ireland play?
1. In my humble opinion, Ireland should return to the great prominence of its moral
leadership evinced during the de-colonisation era a half-century ago, and now play a
vanguard role in building EU, wider European, and broad global consensus for reform
of the UN Security Council;
2. Meanwhile, Ireland should pay attention to the dramatically-altered threat
environment posed by recent Russian aggression, conduct a new risk assessment,
and the pathetic trend that has reduced Irish defence expenditure to around 0.5% of
GDP, far below the EU norm. We are almost unique as a non-NATO country that has
dramatically depleted its defence forces in recent years. In fact we have no capacity
whatsoever to defend this country. Worse, the attempts to reduce the service age will
accelerate the loss of trained personnel, at exactly the time when we may need them;
3. Parliamentary cooperation between the Oireachtas, and the Ukrainian Verkhovna
Rada could be enhanced within the framework of PACE.
4. For Ukraine, Ireland could explore, promote and support the engagement of the
Global Partnerships Forum in building stronger partnerships for Ukraine;
5. It should also promote low-cost confidence-building measures that should serve to
assuage both Ukrainian and Russian anxieties about risks of human rights violations,
e.g. through the deployment of teams by the international NGO coalition known as
Nonviolent Peaceforce which carries out low-cost and effective unarmed civilian
protection with multilateral and bilateral donor funding in such places as the
Caucasus, South Sudan, and the Philippines. FLD could also be involved;
6. And the Government and Oireachtas could support the Institute for International and
European Affairs to substantially ratchet-up its monitoring of the situation in Ukraine
and its neighbourhood, by have a watching brief regularly shared with government
and Oireachtas officials, and also by inviting and hosting presentations by Ukrainian
leaders and Russian alternative voices;
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7. Not least, the Irish in Ukraine have long lamented Ireland’s failure to deploy a full-time
resident ambassador to Ukraine. It is beyond comprehension that this, the largest
country entirely in Europe, located at its geographic heart, in such a geo-strategically
sensitive location, with a population about the size of Spain’s, should have no Irish
resident embassy.
I have no doubt that a resident Irish embassy would make a substantial difference to the
quality of bilateral relations, and the accuracy and relevance of our understanding, policy, and
actions regarding Ukraine.
Now is a good time to promote an integrated policy approach to support sustainable
economic growth, social equality and stability, and environmental responsibility and
stewardship in Ukraine. Upholding the Copenhagen Criteria, adopting the Acquis
Communautaire, and progressing Ukraine towards EU membership, will enable inclusive
economic development, social progress, and environmental sustainability. Action is required
on many fronts, but a progressive approach will help Ukraine build re-trust at home and
internationally and contribute to shaping the regional and global future. Ukraine’s progress in
this respect is not at the expense of Russia; to the contrary, Russia stands to gain
enormously from a European Ukraine. But obstructing it is a lose-lose failure.
More than this, this is a historic opportunity to “build back better” a genuine and deeper
partnership between Russia, Europe, and America, one which is inclusive rather than built on
exclusions, one that appreciates the multi-vector realities that Ukraine has so earnestly tried
to balance, and last and not least, one that not only recognizes Ukraine’s geographic
centrality to the continent of Europe, but also enables Ukraine to enjoy its geostrategic
location to the fullest by being the great link that underpins Russo-Euro-Atlantic cooperation,
for it lies at its heart, and brings it to a new level of multi-dimensional synergy, rather than a
mere transit route for energy supplies.
Thank you, Chairman and members, and I remain at your disposal for any discussion.
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