Vol.20 No.3
JOURNAL OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY
September 2014
Article ID: 1006-8775(2014) 03-0228-08
POSSIBLE RELATIONSHIPS AMONG SOUTH CHINA SEA SSTA, SOIL
MOISTURE ANOMALIES IN SOUTHWEST CHINA AND SUMMER
PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN CHINA
1, 2
1, 2
1, 2
1, 2
GAO Chu-jie (高楚杰) , CHEN Hai-shan (陈海山) , XU Bei (许 蓓) , ZENG Gang (曾 刚)
(1. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Key
Laboratory of Metrological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information of Science
and Technology (NUIST), Nanjing 210044 China; 2. School of Atmospheric Science, NUIST, Nanjing
210044 China)
Abstract: By using 1958-2001 NOAA extended reconstructed sea surface temperature (SST) data, ERA40
reanalysis soil moisture data and precipitation data of 444 stations in China (east of 100°E), the possible
relationships among South China Sea (SCS) SST anomaly (SSTA), soil moisture anomalies (SMA) and
summer precipitation in eastern China as well as their possible physical processes are investigated. Results
show that the SSTA of SCS bears an evidently negative correlation with spring soil moisture in the east part
of Southwest China. More (less) precipitation happens in the Yangtze River basin and less (more) in the
Southeast China in summer when the SSTA of SCS is higher (lower) than normal and the soil in the east
part of Southwest China is dry (wet) in spring. Further analysis shows that when the SSTA of SCS is high
(low), the southwesterly wind at low level is weak (strong), decreasing (increasing) the water vapor
transport in South China, resulting in reduced (increased) spring precipitation in the east part of Southwest
China and more (less) soil moisture in spring. Through the evaporation feedback mechanism, the dry (wet)
soil makes the surface temperature higher (lower) in summer, causing the westward extension (eastward
retreat) of the West Pacific Subtropical High, eventually leading to the summer precipitation anomalies.
Key words: statistics; correlation analysis; SSTA; soil moisture; summer precipitation; eastern China
CLC number: P434.4
1
Document code: A
INTRODUCTION
China is one of the areas in the world affected
most significantly by the monsoon activity. From the
beginning to the end of a rainy season, both the
changes of main rain belts and precipitation anomalies
in eastern China are closely related to the monsoon
activity. Located upstream of the summer monsoon
airflow, the South China Sea (SCS) is an important
source of water vapor and energy. The sea surface
temperature (SST) anomalies in this area have great
impacts on the general circulation of the tropical
atmosphere and the summer climate in China, which
has drawn much attention from the Chinese scholars.
The relationship has been studied since the 1980s
between the SST of the Indian Ocean and the SCS and
the summer rainfall around the middle and lower
reaches of the Yangtze River, as shown in Chen et
al.[1], Luo et al.[2], Luo and Jin[3], Jin and Luo[4], and
Shen and Jin[5]. Their studies pointed out that SST of
SCS, Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal in the preceding
season can affect the Chinese precipitation in the
rainy season. There is also a close link between the
SCS SST anomalies (SSTA) and the Western Pacific
Subtropical high. Based on numerical experiments,
Sun et al.[6] and Liang and Lin[7] confirmed that the
SST of the SCS, Asian monsoon circulation and the
droughts/floods in the Yangtze River basin are closely
linked with each other. Chen[8], Zhao et al.[9] and
Liang et al.[10] found that the thermal conditions over
the SCS and the eastern tropical Indian Ocean have
significant impact on the monsoon system in the
western Pacific, India and the SCS. Min et al.[11]
showed that SSTA in the SCS, the Bay of Bengal and
the Arabian Sea shows consistent variations and has
significant interaction with the monsoon system and
Received 2013-04-24; Revised 2014-05-30; Accepted 2014-07-15
Foundation item: National Science Foundation of China (41230422); Special Funds for Public Welfare of China
(GYHY 201206017); NCET Program; Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province of China (BK2004001);
Project Funded by the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD);
Research Innovation Program for College Graduates of Jiangsu Province (CXZZ13_0499)
Biography: GAO Chu-jie, Ph. D. candidate, primarily undertaking research on short-term climate prediction.
Corresponding author: CHEN Hai-shan, e-mail: [email protected]
No.3
GAO Chu-jie (高楚杰), CHEN Hai-shan (陈海山) et al.
can influence the summer precipitation in China
significantly. In recent years, the impacts of the SCS
SST on the monsoon circulation and summer
precipitation have been widely investigated via
numerical simulations[12-15].
Soil moisture plays an important role in the
process of land-atmosphere interactions, which is one
of the most important physical parameters in both
climatic and hydrological study. Soil moisture can
affect the ground evaporation, run-off, surface albedo,
emissivity, and even the sensible and latent heat flux,
which in turn affect the climate significantly. Studies
suggest that the impact of soil moisture on the
atmosphere is second only to that of the SST on the
global scale, and even more important than that of
SST over the land. Due to large spatial and temporal
variability of the soil moisture and lack of
observations, studies on soil moisture anomaly itself
and its climatic effect have been greatly limited. Until
now, our understanding about the relationship
between the soil moisture anomaly and climate
variations is still preliminary[16-18]. In recent years, soil
moisture reanalysis data has been gradually used in
the relevant research filed. Besides, issues related to
soil moisture anomaly and its climatic impacts
become heated scientific topics again, which greatly
deepens our understanding about the interaction
between the soil moisture and the climate. Trenberth
and Shea[19], and Dery and Wood[20] pointed out that
the interaction between the soil moisture and
precipitation/temperature is an important part of the
land-atmosphere feedback system. Koster et al.[21, 22]
found a close linkage between the soil moisture
anomaly and the precipitation. Abnormal rainfall
usually causes evident change of the soil moisture,
and the soil moisture anomaly in turn can induce the
subsequent precipitation anomalies. In addition,
studies suggested that the soil moisture anomalies and
temperature anomalies are also closely related[23-25],
and the soil moisture has been considered as a key
predictor for the temperature prediction. In China,
significant advancement has been achieved in this
field. For example, Ma et al.[26] suggested that the
surface soil moisture bears evident lead and lag
correlation with the temperature and precipitation.
Based on the combination of statistical and dynamic
methods, Sun et al.[27] explored the possible
relationships among the rainfall anomaly, general
atmospheric circulation and soil moisture/temperature
over the Huaihe River basin, and disclosed their
dynamic linkages as well as the impacts of the soil
moisture and soil temperature in the preceding season
on summer precipitation. Zuo and Zhang[28], Dai and
Zuo[29] investigated the possible impacts of spring soil
moisture anomalies of North China on Chinese
summer precipitation, indicating that the soil moisture
anomalies can affect summer precipitation by altering
the East Asian summer monsoon intensity. Liang and
229
[30]
explored the possible linkage between the
Chen
spring soil moisture in South China and summer
rainfall and disclosed a strong linkage between them.
Since both the SCS SST anomalies and soil
moisture anomalies can influence the general
circulation and the monsoon system, they have been
used as good indicators of the precipitation anomalies
and the movement of the rain belt in the successive
season. China is located in the East Asian monsoon
region, and the monsoon activity has long been
considered closely related to the land-sea thermal
contrast. So both the SCS SST anomalies and the soil
moisture anomalies have the potential to affect
land-sea thermal contrast, and then the East Asian
monsoon system and summer rainfall in China. It is
noted that most current studies emphasized the impact
of SCS SST anomaly and soil moisture anomaly
separately but ignored their coordinated influence.
This study aims at exploring the possible linkage of
the spring SCS SST anomaly with the soil moisture
anomaly and their coordinated role on the climate
anomaly, especially the precipitation anomalies and
the rain belt in Eastern China in the following summer,
which will provide some references for better
understanding the mechanism of summer precipitation
anomalies in China.
The rest of this paper is organized as follows.
Section 2 introduces the datasets used in the analysis.
Sections 3 and 4 present the relationships among the
SCS SSTA, SMA and precipitation in Eastern China.
In section 5, the possible process through which the
SCS SSTA and SMA have impact on the precipitation
in Eastern China is investigated. Section 6 is a
summary.
2
DATA
Because of lack of soil moisture observations, the
ERA40 soil moisture monthly reanalysis data from the
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather
Forecasts (ECMWF), with a horizontal resolution of
2.5°×2.5°, is used in this research. The soil moisture
data consists of four layers of thickness, i.e. 7 cm, 21
cm, 72 cm, and 189 cm, respectively. Li et al.[31] and
Zhang et al.[32, 33] compared several sets of reanalysis
data and pointed out that the ERA40 soil moisture
data is consistent with existing observations in aspects
of both its inter-annual variability and spatial pattern.
Zuo and Zhang[34] compared the ERA40 soil moisture
data with the station observations in Eastern China
(east of 100°E) and suggested that the ERA40 data
can reflect the basic characteristics of the
geographical distribution of the observed soil
moisture. They found that the correlation coefficients
between the ERA40 and the observation are
statistically significant at the 1% level over most areas
in China and soil moisture at shallow soil layers is
229
    Journal of Tropical Meteorology
230
more accurate. Therefore, the soil moisture data of the
first layer (7 cm) was selected to characterize the
surface soil moisture in our study. The study period is
set to 1958-2001 since the ERA40 data is only
available from September 1957 to August 2002.
The SST data used is the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) extended
reconstructed SST data (2.0°×2.0°). The precipitation
data with continuous records at 444 stations in Eastern
China during 1958-2001 provided by the National
Meteorological Center is also used in our current
study. Fig. 1 shows the geographic distribution of the
selected 444 rainfall stations.
In addition, the ERA40 geopotential height, wind
field, water vapor and surface air temperature monthly
reanalysis data are also used in this study.
Vol.20
CHINA
The region (110-120°E, 10-20°N) in SCS is
selected as the study area and an index of spring SCS
SSTA is defined by normalizing the time series of the
average March SST over the target region during
1958-2001 to reflect the inter-annual anomaly of the
SCS SST (shown in Fig. 2). The SCS SSTA exhibits
an obvious inter-annual variability and a weak
warming trend. SST is cold before 1978 but warm
after that.
Figure 3 presents the distribution of the
correlation coefficients between the SCS SSTA index
and the late spring (May) soil moisture in China (east
of 100°E). It is noted that the SCS SSTA bears a
negative correlation with the soil moisture in the
Yangtze River basin with the most significant
negative correlation region located in the east part of
Southwest China. Weak positive correlations are also
found in North China and coastal regions in South
China, while weak negative correlation is located in
Northeast China. While Zuo et al.[28] and Liang et
al.[30] emphasized the relationship between the
summer precipitation anomalies with the spring soil
moisture anomalies over the last three regions, our
study focused on the soil moisture anomalies in the
east part of Southwest China as well as its impacts.
The regional averaged soil moisture in May over the
east part of Southwest China (102.5°-110°E,
25°-30°N) is normalized to define an index of the soil
moisture anomalies (SMA), which can be used to
reflect inter-annual anomalies of the soil moisture in
the late spring over this region.
Figure 1. Geographic distribution of the 444 stations.
3

RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN SPRING SCS
SST AND SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES IN
3
nhssta
2
1
0
-1
-2
Year
-3
1958
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
Figure 2. Interannual variation of SCS SSTA index for March in 1958-2001.
For the convenience of comparison, Fig. 4
230
Figure 3. Correlations of SCS SSTA index
with May soil moisture over China (the
shaded areas show correlation coeficients at
the 5% significance level).
presents the inter-annual variation curves of both the
No.3
GAO Chu-jie (高楚杰), CHEN Hai-shan (陈海山) et al.
SCS SSTA index and SMA index. On the whole,
there is an evident negative correlation between them,
i.e., dry (wet) soil in the east part of Southwest China
is always accompanied by warmer (colder) SCS SST.
Further analysis shows that the correlation coefficient
between them is -0.52, which is statistically
significant at the 1% level, implying a very close
relationship between the spring SCS SSTA and the
late spring SMA in the east part of Southwest China.
231
and SMA is 0.37, and that between Rcj and SMA is
-0.36. Both of them are statistically significant at the
5% level.
(a)
3
nhssta
2
xnsma
1
0
-1
-2
Year
-3
1958
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
Figure 4. Interannual variations of SCS SSTA index for March
(solid line) and Southwest China SMA index for May (dashed
line).
4
(b)
RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN LATE
SPRING SMA AND PRECIPITATION
ANOMALIES IN EASTERN CHINA
Figure 5 shows the geographic distributions of the
correlations of the SMA index with spring and
summer precipitation over Eastern China, indicating
the possible relationships between the late spring
SMA in Southwest China and the rainfall anomaly.
The late spring SMA bears a significant positive
correlation with the spring precipitation in the east
part of the Southwest China, implying that the soil
tends to be wet when there is more precipitation (Fig.
5a). The above results also demonstrated the
reliability and capability of the ERA40 soil moisture
data in representing the soil moisture state over this
region. From Fig. 5b, it is found that the spring SMA
index and anomalies of summer precipitation,
especially the rainfall in the Eastern China, are closely
related. An evident positive correlation is located in
Southeast China but a significant negative correlation
in the Yangtze River basin.
For the need of further discussion, we calculated
the
regional
averaged
summer
(June-July)
precipitation over Southeast China (112-120°E,
23-28°N) and the Yangtze River basin (105-123°E,
28-33°N), respectively, which are normalized to get
the indexes for the summer rainfall in the Southeast
China and the Yangtze River basin (Rdn and Rcj) to
reflect the rainfall anomalies over those two regions.
Fig. 6 presents the time series of SMA, Rdn and Rcj.
It is noted that the variation of Rdn is very consistent
with that of SMA, while the variation of Rcj is
generally opposite to that of SMA. Further calculation
shows that the correlation coefficient between Rdn
Figure 5. The geographic distribution of the correlation
coefficients of Southwest SMA index for May with (a) spring
and (b) summer rainfall in China. The solid and hollow circles
represent the positive and negative value, respectively. The
small circles and big circles show they are statistically
significant at the 5% and 1% level, respectively.
4
xnsma
3
Rdn
Rcj
2
1
0
-1
-2
Year
-3
1958
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
Figure 6. Interannual variations of Southwest China SMA
index (soild line), Rdn index (dashed line) and Rcj index
(dotted line).
In summary, there is a close relationship between
soil moisture anomalies over the east part of the
Southwest China and the rainfall in the Southeast
China and the Yangtze River basin. Opposite
variations are found in the precipitation anomalies
over these two regions. Less summer precipitation
happens in the Yangtze River basin and more in the
231
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    Journal of Tropical Meteorology
Southeast China accompanied by wet spring soil in
the east part of the Southwest China, and vice versa.
5 POSSIBLE PROCESSES OF SCS SSTA AND
SMA AFFECTING PRECIPITATION IN EAST
CHINA
The analysis above shows that spring
precipitation anomalies will directly lead to the soil
moisture anomalies in the east part of Southeast China
(Fig. 5a). Fig. 7 shows the distributions of the
correlation coefficients of SCS SSTA and spring
precipitation in China. The SCS SSTA bears a
significant negative correlation with the precipitation
anomalies in the east part of the Southwest China,
whose spatial pattern is similar to that of Figs. 3 and
5a. Therefore, it is concluded that the early spring
SCS temperature has a close link with the spring
precipitation in the east part of Southwest China, and
the SSTA can cause abnormal spring rainfall in the
east part of Southwest China, leading to the variation
of the soil condition (to be dry or wet).
Figure 7. The geographic distribution of the correlation
coefficients between March SCS SSTA index and spring
rainfall in China. The solid circle and hollow circle represent
the positive and negative value, respectively. The small circles
and big circles respectively show they are statistically
significant at the 5% and 1% level.
In order to further examine the results mentioned
above, the regionally averaged spring (April-May)
precipitation over the east part of Southwest China
(102.5°-110°E, 25°-30°N) was calculated and
normalized as the index of spring rainfall anomaly
(Rxn) to reflect the inter-annual variability of the
rainfall over this region. The inter-annual variations of
the three indexes (SCS SSTA, SMA and Rxn) are
shown in Fig. 8. Results suggest that the correlation
coefficient between SCS SSTA and Rxn is -0.31
(significant at the 5% level). The correlation
coefficient between Rxn and SMA is as much as 0.54
(significant at the 1% level). It is then concluded that
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Vol.20
the precipitation anomalies in the east part of
Southwest China is closely linked with the SCS SST
and is the direct cause for the variation in SMA. Less
(more) spring precipitation in Southwest China is
corresponding to warm (cold) SCS SST, resulting in
dry (wet) soil at the end of spring.
3
nhssta
2
xnsma
Rxn
1
0
-1
-2
Year
-3
1958
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
Figure 8. Interannual variations of SCS SSTA index (solid
line), Southwest China SMA index (dashed line) and Rxn
index (dotted line).
Figure 9 shows the spatial distributions of the
correlation coefficients of SCS SSTA index with the
spring 850-hPa wind and relative humidity. There is
an anomalous northeasterly wind component from the
Yangtze River basin to the east part of Southwest
China when the spring (March) SCS is warmer than
usual. This weak southwesterly wind reduces the
transfer of water vapor into the region of interest and
decreases the relative humidity, and eventually leads
to a decrease in precipitation. On the contrary, more
precipitation happens when the SCS is cooler than
normal. It is therefore concluded that the SCS SSTA
usually causes the anomalous southwesterly wind and
results in spring precipitation anomaly in the east part
of Southwest China, which is the possible cause of the
spring soil moisture anomaly in Southwest China.
An important way by which the soil moisture
anomalies affect the atmosphere is to change the
surface thermal forcing and thus induce the
atmospheric circulation anomalies. Fig. 10 shows the
distributions of the correlation of the SMA index with
the surface air temperature and the 500-hPa
geopotential height. There is a significant negative
correlation between the SMA index and the surface
air temperature in the east part of Southwest China,
and there is also a significant negative correlation at
the mid- and upper-troposphere over these regions.
The distributions suggest that the surface air
temperature is obviously higher when the soil in the
east part of Southwest China is dry (Fig. 10a). The
abnormal surface heating causes the variation of the
geopotential height in the upper atmosphere, which
increases
the
500-hPa
geopotential
height
significantly over Southwest China and its nearby
areas (Fig. 10b). Such a situation tends to strengthen
the summer western Pacific subtropical high and
make it move westward.
No.3
GAO Chu-jie (高楚杰), CHEN Hai-shan (陈海山) et al.
Figure 9. Correlation between the SCS SSTA index and the
spring 850-hPa wind field (arrow) and 850-hPa relative
humidity (contours, the shaded areas show correlation
coefficients at the 5% significance level).
(a)
233
and the spring soil is dry (with the SMA index <-0.8).
At the same time, eight years (1962, 1964, 1965, 1967,
1968, 1971, 1972 and 1974) are also selected as cold
SST/wet soil years, in which the spring SCS SST is
cold (with the SSTA index <-0.8) and the spring soil
is wet (with the SMA index >0.8). Both are used in
composite analysis.
Figure 11 shows the composites of spring
500-hPa geopotential high for the years of warm
SST/dry soil moisture and the years of cold SST/wet
soil moisture, where the dashed line indicates the
climatology of 588 dagpm contour. The most
significant difference of the soil moisture anomaly
years is mainly related to the changes in the intensity
of the subtropical high and its position. In the dry soil
case, the subtropical high is much stronger and
extends westward to 123°E, with its ridge located at
about 20°N (Fig. 11a). However, in the wet soil case,
the subtropical high is much weaker and retreats
eastward to 141°E with its ridge located at about 25°N
(Fig. 11b).
(a)
(b)
(b)
Figure 10. Distribution of the correlation between the
Southwest SMA index and (a) the summer surface air
temperature and (b) 500-hPa geopotential height. Shadings
show the correlation coefficients at the 5% significance level.
Figure 11. Composites of summer 500-hPa geopotential height
for (a) dry and (b) wet soil years. The dashed line shows the
climatology of 588 dagpm contour. Units: degpm.
In order to explore the basic feature of the
atmospheric circulation anomalies related to the SSTA
and SMA more directly and to better understand the
mechanisms of summer rainfall anomalies, four
typical years (1988, 1998, 2000 and 2001) are
selected as warm SST/dry soil years in which the
spring SCS SST is warm (with the SSTA index >0.8)
In summary, warm SCS SST in March usually
produces low spring soil moisture in the east part of
Southwest China. Through an evaporation feedback,
dry soil increases the summer surface temperature and
intensifies the thermal heating in the low level of the
atmosphere. As a result, the geopotential height at the
500-hPa level was uplifted, causing the westward
233
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    Journal of Tropical Meteorology
extension of the western Pacific subtropical high.
Such a situation hampers the northward advance of
the summer monsoon, resulting in more summer
precipitation over the Yangtze River basin but less
summer precipitation in Southeast China. On the
contrary, when the SCS SST is cold in March, there is
less summer precipitation over the Yangtze River
basin and more rainfall in Southeast China. Liang and
Chen[30] pointed out that the low spring soil moisture
in South China is beneficial to the westward extension
of the western Pacific subtropical high and the
precipitation anomalies, which is basically consistent
with our results.
6
CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION
Based on the observational analysis, the possible
relationships among the spring SCS SSTA, SMA and
the summer precipitation in Eastern China are
disclosed in this study. Main conclusions are
summarized as follows.
(1) The spring SCS SST bears a significant
negative correlation with the spring soil moisture in
the eastern part of Southwest China (east of 100°E).
The spring soil in this area is usually dry (wet) when
the spring SCS is abnormally warm (cold).
(2) The spring SMA in the eastern part of
Southwest China bears a significant negative
correlation with the summer precipitation over the
Yangtze River basin but a positive correlation in
Southeast China. More (less) summer precipitation
happens in the Yangtze River basin and less (more) in
Southeast China when the soil spring moisture is low
(high).
(3) When SCS SST is high (low), the
southwesterly wind at the low level is weak (strong),
decreasing (increasing) the water vapor transport in
South China and resulting in reduced (increased)
spring precipitation in the east part of Southwest
China and more (less) soil moisture in spring.
(4) Through the evaporation feedback mechanism,
the dry (wet) soil increases (decreases) the surface
temperature in summer, causing the westward
extension (eastward retreat) of the West Pacific
subtropical high. Changing the surface thermal
condition and causing the atmospheric circulation
anomalies, the soil moisture anomalies can be one of
the possible causes for the summer precipitation
anomalies.
The possible linkages among the early spring SCS
SSTA, the late spring SMA and the summer
precipitation anomalies were investigated in this study,
which can help us understand more about the
mechanisms by which SSTA affects the precipitation.
However, the results are still preliminary and further
studies are needed. The results are acquired only by
the observational analysis and should be verified by
numerical experiments in the future.
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Vol.20
Acknowledgement: The author would like to thank doctoral
student Bob Alex for his helpful comments. Thanks also go to
anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and
suggestion.
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Citation: GAO Chu-jie, CHEN Hai-shan, XU Bei et al. Possible relationships among South China Sea SSTA, soil moisture
anomalies in Southwest China and summer precipitation in eastern China. J. Trop. Meteor., 2014, 20(3): 228-235.
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