Exploring the rural passenger experience, information needs and decision making during public transport disruption Konstantinos Papangelisa, Nagendra R. Velagab, Fiona Ashmore, Somayajulu Sripadac, John D. Nelsonc, Mark Beecroftc School of Computer Science and Software Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, CN b Department of Civil Engineering, IIT Bombay c dot.rural Digital Economy Research Hub, University of Aberdeen, UK a ABSTRACT Individuals in rural areas are often provided with little or no information regarding public transport disruptions. This has strong impact on those with limited access to alternative motorised transport. Though an increasing number of real time passenger information (RTPI) systems are being developed their role in supporting travellers during service disruption is poorly understood, particularly in rural areas. In this paper, we first illustrate and categorise travel disruptions. Requirements for RTPI - particularly for rural public transport users - are then identified for each type and stage of disruption through interviews and focus groups with rural passengers. Patterns of passenger behaviour during travel and transport disruptions are also classified. Further, a conceptual model of the recovery phases of disruption has been developed to map the RTPI requirements for each recovery phase of disruption. The model has been developed and evaluated through a series of focus groups and interviews with passengers, transport service providers, and government agencies. Finally, the paper also discusses and suggests the necessary advances in digital technologies for RTPI systems required to support public transport users during disruptions and thus minimise the number of trips abandoned. Keywords: real-time passenger information; disruption; rural transport INTRODUCTION Travel and transportation disruptions have been conceptualised in the literature as disruption to infrastructure and disruption to the operation of the transport system (Van Exel and Rietveld, 2001; Cairns et al, 2002). Disruption to infrastructure results from natural or manmade events and activities (such as preplanned road maintenance, severe weather conditions etc.), while disruption to operation results from disturbance/problems with the transport network, vehicle and transport infrastructure. Disruptions may be long-term or short-term; long term disruptions include major calamities such as floods, earthquakes, and tsunamis while short-term disruptions are mainly due to operational disruptions (e.g., accidents, vehicle breakdown). There is a connection between travel and transport disruptions and passenger information, as the availability of information can engender confidence about the journey and has the potential to result in high levels of trip or activity recovery during disruptions (Ambrosino, 2004). People making journeys require different types of information pre-journey, en-route, and post-journey, which must be delivered using appropriate channels (Grotenhuiset et al., 2007). For instance, pre-journey activities, such as planning, require information covering available modes of transport, routes, timetable, and cost; this is often delivered in paper-based form, on a website, or via call centres. Immediately before and during their journey, passengers require information relating to estimated arrival time, delays, network disruptions, and schedule changes, which can be delivered via: at-stop variable message signs, websites, public announcements, or mobile devices (Khattak et al., 2008). Providing RTPI just before and during journeys is Corresponding author: [email protected] 1 extremely valuable for the passengers, as it can influence the travel behaviour, cultivate positive attitudes towards the service provider and create positive perceptions of efficiency and security (Caulfield and Mahoney, 2007; Zhang et al., 2008; Wang et al., 2009; Watkins et al., 2011; Beecroft and Pangbourne, 2015). In this paper, we first illustrate and categorise travel disruptions. RTPI requirements - particularly for rural public transport users - are then identified for each type and stage of disruption through findings from interviews and focus groups with rural passengers. Patterns of passenger behaviour during travel disruptions are also identified, and as part of this, self-organisation and resilience of communities is discussed. Further, a conceptual model of the recovery phases of disruption has been developed to map the RTPI requirements for each recovery phase of disruption. The model has been developed and evaluated through a series of focus groups and interviews with passengers, transport service providers, and government agencies. Finally, the paper also discusses and suggests the necessary advances in digital technologies for RTPI systems required to support public transport users during disruptions and the associated implications for managerial practice. REVIEW OF RELEVANT LITERATURE High quality information is a key enabler of a successful transport service provision (Ambrosino, 2004). RTPI provision during transport disruptions is a major concern particularly for public transport users in rural areas (Velaga et al., 2012). Although there is a vast literature on different issues (separately) such as: travel behaviour, RTPI, and travel and transportation disruptions, almost no evidence has been found on public transport RTPI requirements during disruption (one exception being Lu et al., (2011), and its effects on passenger behaviour in rural areas. Cairns et al. (2002) reviewed evidence from about 100 case studies of temporary or permanent transport network disruptions across the world and identified alteration of traffic patterns and behavioural adjustments for 60 of these. The evidence from a survey of 150 transport professionals and disaster management experts indicated that public transport users change their attitudes towards travel and transport, and behaviour based on duration, significance, impact and effect of disruptions (Cairns et al., 2002). For example, a short-term disruption (e.g., transport strike or a bridge closure) may lead to changing travel mode, choosing to visit alternative destinations, changing the journey frequency, consolidating trips for different purposes, altering the allocation of tasks within a household to enable more efficient tripmaking, car-sharing, or avoiding possible journeys (e.g. by working from home occasionally). In case of long term disruptions, passengers normally tend to make more permanent changes (e.g., job or home relocation; permanent mode change). However, Cairns et al. (2002) did not discuss the impact of information provision on these changes. Zhu and Levinson (2010) also adopted a similar approach developed by Cairns et al (2002), and their analysis identified that changes that occur as a result of short-term disruptions (e.g., road closure) can become permanent. Furthermore, they identified that road network redundancy is a factor in determining the significance of a disruption (Zhu and Levinson, 2010). The impact of disruptions upon rural passengers compared to urban passengers is likely to be greater because passengers in rural areas usually have more limited transport connectivity, fewer alternative routes for a given origin – destination and also public transport frequency is low. However, very little is known about the real impact of disruptions on transport networks as the available data about traffic patterns are usually based on aggregate counts, and have not been assessed against predictive models of traffic behaviour (Watling et al., 2012). Some studies have suggested that travel behaviour changes depend on the type and duration of disruption and whether the disruption is planned or unplanned (Fujii et al., 2001; Van der Waerden et al., 2003; Lo and Hill 2006; Van Exel and Rietveld, 2009). Van Exel and Rietveld (2001) examined the impact of 13 major public transport strikes in Europe and USA. They considered strikes as events that force passengers to re-evaluate habits. They found that captive public transport users were most strongly impacted with 10% to 20% of their trips cancelled. They also identified that accurate and timely information provision is one of the critical components that affects the behaviour change of the public transport users. Several recent studies have used hypothetical or real-life scenarios to test the responsiveness and robustness of specific transport networks. De-Los-Santos et al. (2012) measured passenger robustness to disruptions and developed a robustness index for two different types of disruptions. They applied this index to two 2 different scenarios with respect to the Madrid rail transit network: (1) providing alternative solutions (e.g., bus services) during disruption; and (2) not creating alternative solutions (meaning passengers have to wait for the failure to be repaired). He and Liu (2012) developed a traffic flow evolution model for transport disruptions which was evaluated following the collapse of the I-35W Mississippi River Bridge in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Jenelius and Mattsson (2012) proposed a grid-based approach road network vulnerability analysis of the area-covering disruptions (e.g., floods, heavy snowfall, storms and wildfires). Hounsell et al. (2012) discussed bus Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) systems data management and applications; one of their applications is managing vehicle fleet during disruptions; however, their study mainly concentrates on urban areas; taking the iBus system in London as a case study. One study that addresses the role of RTPI during disruption was Lu et al (2011) who studied traveller route choices and mode choice during random disruptions to the traffic system such as traffic incidents and bad weather. It was identified that passenger route choices at both individual and system levels mainly depend on real-time traveller information systems. Their study considered two types of passenger information: (1) en-route real-time information on the occurrence of an incident; and (2) ex-post information on foregone payoffs; and it was identified that the en-route RTPI is more important. It was concluded that RTPI plays a major role in passenger decisions during disruptions. From the literature review, the following gaps are identified: 1) The passenger recovery process and travel behaviour during disruptions are not well understood. 2) There have been no studies relating the passenger information requirements in the passenger recovery process during disruptions. 3) No study has been found which examined the role of RTPI in the decision making process under disruptions. In this research, we utilise evidence gathered from interviews and focus groups with public transport users, car users, cyclists, public transport operators, government agencies and domain experts. The evidence is used to identify the characteristics of the recovery phases of disruption; explore the self-organisation and resilience of the various communities of travellers; discuss passenger behaviour during disruptions; and map the information requirements to the recovery phases. This has enabled a better understanding of passenger motivations for behavioural responses during disruptions and provided understandings to aid development of technologies that may improve passenger experience during disruptions. Methodology To contextualise the study, a series of interviews and structured focus groups were undertaken with public transport passengers, transport operators, government agencies and members of academia. A summary of these research activities is provided in Table 1. The geographic location of the rural area where interviews were conducted with passengers in Scottish Borders, UK is shown in Figure 1. No Event type Date Number 1 Interviews with rural passengers February 2012 52 interviews 2 Focus groups with bus and car users, and cyclists in all operational March 2012 4- focus groups1 Area / Organisation Scottish Borders, UK Leeds, and Aberdeen, UK Aim/Objective Discuss the effects of public transport disruptions in everyday life Understand information requirements during disruption Understand the effects of public transport disruptions in everyday life Explore the decision making process during disruption These focus groups were conducted as part of the EPSRC funded ‘Disruption’ project (funding reference number: EP/J00460X/1). 1 3 Explore behavioural adaptation during disruption Explore the self-organisation and resilience of communities environments 3 Interviews with domain experts (transport and social science) May 2012 4- interviews University of Aberdeen, UK Evaluation of the conceptual model regarding the phases of disruption. Evaluation of the conceptual model regarding the self-organisation and resilience of the communities. 4 Interviews and focus groups with transport operators May/June 2012 2-interviews and Bus operator, Galashiels, UK Model evaluation Passenger information requirements during disruption from operator's point of view Understand information provision strategies by operators Explore passengers travel behaviour during disruptions from the operator's point of view Interviews with government agencies June 2012 Local councils and transport authorities in the study area Model evaluation Understand passenger information requirements during disruptions from local agencies' point of view Understand the passenger information strategy from local agencies point of view 5 2- focus groups 2-interviews Table 1 Details of interviews and focus groups with passengers, operators and agencies Figure 1 Study area 4 Interviews with rural passengers The 52 semi-structured interviews in the Scottish Borders explored the common experiences, shared culture, and individual stories of the participants with regard to public transport and disruptions in rural areas. These aimed to elicit the effects of public transport disruption on the everyday lives of rural passengers, and their information requirements during disruptions. During interviews we had a script that we followed that aimed to explore topics relating to how individuals experience disruption, how they behave during disruption, what information they require etc. However, even though we followed the script, we were flexible and encouraged the informants to share their experiences and their stories. Further, during the interviews we inquired regarding into various observations we made. For example: we observed that various individuals were checking the time and then directly using the phone to text or call. When we approached them and inquired about their action they mentioned that they were using their phones to notify friends and relatives about where the bus is and if the bus is running late and or early. These interviews involved fifty-two participants (35 male, 17 female) with a mean age of 36.7 years old. They were conducted along the First X95 bus service between Edinburgh and Carlisle (the route shown in Figure 1). We selected this particular service because it connects two major cities and serves several areas with various degrees of rurality. Each interview lasted approximately 18 minutes. It must be noted that the participants were recruited based on a pre-screening interview regarding their frequency of public transport usage, rather than randomly selected (Patton, 2002). Focus groups For our study we conducted 6 focus groups to explore issues raised from the observations and interviews. These included I) the use of kinship networks during disruption II) appropriation of technologies, III) the passenger information requirements during disruption, IV) and to explore how individuals and communities cope with disruption. Four focus groups were conducted at the Universities of Aberdeen and Leeds in the UK. The participants were a mix of urban and rural bus and car users, and cyclists from the Aberdeen and West Yorkshire County respectively. Each focus group was comprised of 8 to 11 participants with a mean age of 34 years, and lasted approximately 90 minutes. The participants were recruited through emails and flyers. The main discussion concentrated on the effects of disruption in everyday life, and the individuals’ adaptation and decision-making processes during and after different types of transport disruptions. In addition, we conducted two focus groups with bus drivers that mainly operate the X95/95 bus service in the Scottish Borders. The focus group involved nine bus drivers that had at least four-year experience in the area and the route. The main discussion concentrated upon their experiences on how passengers behave during disruption, and the importance of information. The operator focus groups included different members in the hierarchy of a public transport (bus) operator company. The objective was to capture relevant issues at a variety of operational levels within the company. The interviewees included the Communications Manager and the manager of a bus depot in the rural area of Galashiels, UK (see Figure 12). Both interviews lasted approximately 90 minutes. In both cases the discussion focused on disruptions, passenger recovery, trip recovery and abandonment, passenger travel behaviour during disruption from an operator point of view, and the operator’s information strategy. Interviews with government agencies These interviews comprised two government agencies: i) an individual from the Transport Subcommittee of the Scottish Borders Council and ii) the regional area manager of a government transport agency. Both of the interviews lasted approximately 120 minutes. In both cases the disruption model was used to organise discussion around the impacts that disruption has upon rural passengers, the importance of RTPI, and each agency’s future plans for a passenger information strategy. Interviews with domain experts The interviews with the domain experts included two academic experts in the field of travel behaviour and disruption, from the University of Aberdeen’s Centre for Transport Research on the effects of disruption in the everyday lives of individuals living in rural areas. All interviews lasted approximately 80 minutes, and aimed to critique and evaluate the model. 5 Data analysis The interviews and focus groups were transcribed verbatim and subjected to a grounded theory type approach involving data reduction and inductive content analysis (examples of interviews can be found in Appendix 4 on page 201, and examples of focus groups and the focus group flyer and the topic guide can be found in Appendix 6 on page 243). The ground theory type approach is a systematic methodology, which enables the researchers to review the data collceted, and through aparent repeated ideas, concepts or elements meaning is assigned. The results of the ground theory type approach were analysed using an inductive content analysis approach. The purpose of this was to: To condense extensive and varied raw text data into a brief, summary format. To establish clear links between the research objectives and the grounded theory type approach findings. To develop of a model about the underlying structure of experiences or processes which are evident in the raw data. Such techniques, enabled us to drew elements, categories, patterns, and relationships from the data. The results of this process were refined based on interviews with public transport operators and government agencies, and through inputs from the domain experts from the Center for Transport Research (CTR) of the University of Aberdeen. The analysis resulted in the creation of a model of the recovery phases of disruption. The model was then used as an analytical framework against the raw data in order to output the information requirements and the underlying travel behavior of the various phases (see Figure 2). Figure 2 Methodology EXPERIENCING PASSENGER DISRUPTION IN RURAL AREAS In all the areas we studied, disruption was frequent, expected, and seen as a characteristic of the transport system. This is vividly illustrated in the following quotations : “Whenever I’m going further than my daily commute, I think it’s always a factor for me”, and “I just kind of accept that if I’m going anywhere outside the Aberdeen area there’s going to be a delay – there’s going to be a disruption in my travel plans”. This expectation that a disruption might occur results in high levels of frustration. However, our data illustrate that this is not always the case as some disruptions are more acceptable than others. For example, man- 6 made disruptions (e.g. strikes) are less tolerable than disruptions caused by nature (e.g. heavy rain or high winds). This is described by the following assertion: “I would say that public transportation disruption is man-made and the other we can influence. So that’s the main problem, for me. I was very upset when I was stuck somewhere on the beach, it was freezing cold and I couldn’t get the bus because they were striking and I didn’t know they were”. This quote also comes in line with our findings that each individual experiences disruption differently, as one individual’s disruption can be another individual’s opportunity or inconvenience. This may depend on various factors including personality and previous experience amongst others. The following two quotes illustrate this “Some things, are just interruptions but it’s when it affects what you’ve planned to do – you planned to have your breakfast on the train whilst doing your work because you are getting an early train, when you can’t have your breakfast and you can’t do your work then that’s a disruption but if it’s someone playing loud music then it’s not really affecting your plans to sit on that train and get to a destination. For me, that would be the thing: whether it affects what my plans were for the journey”, and “ […] for example weather things, in my home country it’s not an issue at all, so this I don’t feel as a disruption. It makes it difficult but I don’t feel it as a disruption.” Our findings also illustrate that individuals living in rural areas are more prepared to tackle disruptions than their urban counterparts, and preparedness is seen as important. This is especially true for remote places. Individuals are more likely to be prepared for disruptions in rural areas with higher chance of systemic disruption. For example, inhabitants of the Isle of Tiree, can experience high winds during winter that make the island inaccessible for up to two weeks, and so, they stock food and fuel for up to three weeks during the winter. Further, this research has identified that certain groups of individuals are more vulnerable to disruptions than others. These can be summarised as: Family with young children Individuals without family or friends Those living in the outskirts of rural hubs or in hamlets Individuals dependent on public transport Individuals that do not have immediate access to private transport Tourists or Individuals who do not have knowledge of the locality Many participants reported thatdisruption is becoming easier to cope with. This is due to new technologies that travellers utilise to access a great variety of formal and informal information channels (e.g. social media, websites, blogs, forums, etc) enabling them to stay up to date, and exchange information. Figure 2 illustrates an individual living in a hamlet in the Scottish Borders informing her twitter followers that the A7 roadworks are causing delays longer than expected. Figure 2– Correcting and relaying official source information in twitter Nonetheless, individuals have stated that disruption can also lead to positive outcomes. These can include: increased fitness by walking instead of taking the bus or driving, working from home, taking days off, and getting a break from the routine. The latter is illustrated through the following quotation: “Maybe it’s not a positive thing for our climate, but you know if you work in a large office like I was in that incident, when something like that happens, because it’s a break from the routine and there’s a prospect that they might need to send people home, regardless of the fact they might need to spend five hours getting there, people do look at that as quite a positive experience, it’s like that kind of - You get a buzz.” Behavioural responses to disruption 7 Individuals living in rural areas display a wide array of behavioural responses to disruptions ranging from minor to major adaptations. Our study indicates that minor adaptations are more prevalent in low impact disruptions, while major adaptations are more common in high impact disruptions. This is summarised in Table 2. Type of disruption Low impact Frequent disruptions Infrequent High impact disruptions Infrequent Effects in journey Journey usually recovered. Adaptations are minor. Not much time spent in planning and decision making process. Examples of passenger adaptation Switching mode Catching an earlier bus. Staying overnight with friends. Journey usually recovered. Adaptations range from minor to major. Decisions are well thought and planned. Keeping spare clothes at a friend’s house Leaving earlier or later Avoiding social arrangements on the day of travel Journey recovery of abandonment depends on purpose of journey. Adaptations are major. Mode change Route change Relocation Frequent Table 2 the effects in journey and examples of passenger adaptations with reference to the type of disruptions. In low impact disruptions, the journey is usually recovered and the change in travel behavior occurs to facilitate that particular journey. Little time is spent in the planning and the decision making process. The individuals will usually base their actions on local knowledge and previous experience. Examples of such minor short term adaptations include: using local shops, staying overnight with friends, relying on family for lifts, switching mode, working from home, leaving early or late. However, if a low impact disruption becomes frequent it may lead to significant changes in the behaviour of an individual. During such disruptions the individuals spend more time in the planning and decision making process and base their actions on long-term convenience. Examples include, keeping spare clothes at a friend’s house, leaving earlier or later, avoiding social arrangements on the day of travel etc. High impact disruptions lead to significant changes in the behaviour of the individual. The individual almost always plans a course of action, mainly based on previous experience and knowledge of the locality. A significant number of participants in both our interviews and focus groups mentioned that if a high impact disruption is infrequent they would only try to recover the journey if the purpose was important (e.g. commuting to work, visiting a doctor). The most common examples of behavioural adaptations to high impact infrequent disruptions are mode change, and route change. However, if a high impact disruption occurs often (even as often as once per month) it may result in life changing events, such as buying a car or relocating. The following quotes demonstrate this “I’ve moved – I use to live in Longtown but due to disruption I moved to Galashiels.”, and “I used to commute with my bicycle every day. It’s only about 8 miles but it’s a really bad journey, and not in itself was a reason to buy a car, but I could not take it anymore!”. Making choices during disruption The behavioural adaptations discussed in the previous section are largely influenced and shaped by various factors. These can relate to the characteristics of the area, and can either be social, personal, or psychological. The factors that relate to the area are the transport options and the information that individuals have during a disruption. The social factors relate to the social norms, the roles and status of the individual and the passengers social network. The personal factors relate to the previous experience and various socio-economic factors. The psychological factors relate to the traits, personality, temperament and cognitive biases of the passenger. The following figure illustrates these factors in relation to their importance to the response to disruption as discussed by participants in interviews and focus groups. 8 Area Social Personal The available transport options The available information Resilience of the community Social status Social Norms Passengers Social network Socio-economic factors (e.g. age, lifecycle stage, occupation, economic circumstances, lifestyle personality) Purpose of journey Previous Experience Psychological Traits Temperament Personality Response to disruption Cognitive Biases Figure 3 Factors that affect the response to disruption as emerged from our analysis The information individuals have during disruption Individual level information during disruption may play the most important role in the decision making process of the individuals during disruption. We have expanded upon previous research that explores the passenger recovery process to disruption, and have identified that information is very important during the recovery phase, in which the individual looks for preventive measures to mitigate the effects of disruptions and recover the journey (Papangelis, 2013). The purpose of the journey The purpose of the journey plays an important role in the decision making process on whether or not the individual will abandon or recover the journey. Many participants stated that if they have an important journey to make they tend to choose modes of transport with low probability of disruption – such as car and DRT service. Further, they mention that if they experience disruption they tend to have an alternative arrangement. This is illustrated in the following quote ”If I have to visit the doctor I will call a taxi […] and I will notify my relatives that I am taking a taxi in case there is any issues.” The available transport options The transport options that the individual is aware of plays an important role in the decision making process during disruptions. Most of the participants in interviews and focus groups that were relying on private motorised vehicles utilised them in case of disruptions as they were not aware of the various options available to them. However, this was not true for the individuals who were utilising mainly public transport, as they were more aware of the other alternatives. The individual’s social network The individual’s social network is critical during rural disruptions as the individual usually exploits it to increase situational awareness and gather information on how to mitigate the effects of disruptions. Granovetter (1973) discussed how and when the individuals who comprise one’s closest group do not possess the information or social resources that one needs in order to conduct their daily life, weak ties can be invaluable resources. Further, the activity of others (outside the individual’s social network) who have a strong dependency or connectivity to the individual’s travel pattern is important in case of disruption, as they might posses information that will help others to recover their journey. The social status 9 The social status of an individual plays an important role mainly when choosing modes during disruptions. A small percentage of participants in our focus groups mentioned that they would prefer taxi to bus, and if no taxi was available they would prefer to abandon the journey rather to use a bus. However, this was not the norm amongst the participants of the focus groups as most agreed that the mode of transport does not matter as long as they arrive in their destination in a timely manner. The socio-economic characteristics of the individual Further, we have identified that various socio-economic characteristics (car usage, family status, income, etc) play an important role in the decision making process and the recovery process of an individual. The social norms The social norms of the locality affect the adaptation of the individual. Our studies indicate that individuals are less likely to use a new form of transport that is not common where they live. For example, in Longtown, in the Scottish Borders, car sharing is commonly employed when there is public transport disruption. However, they don’t use other modes of transport, such as bicycles as they are not the norm. This is illustrated in the following quotation: “I would not use a bike. It would be weird [...] nobody is using them around here except kids. I prefer to stay at home rather than seen riding a bicycle to college”. The self-organisation/resilience of the locality In resilience theory, communities are not resourceful, but rather have resources that can be developed, expanded or exhausted over time. The capacity to act is not enough to develop resilience; it is the action taken that is critical (Magis, 2010). The identification of resources by the passenger results in them accessing those resources to create new travel arrangements. Further, proactive individual and collective human agency is a key characteristic of resilience. Individual action and collective action occur differently during short term and long-term disruptions: in the short term, actions are marked with individualism, whereas in the long term, actions steadily become more collective and pro-social. This is particularly interesting as it appears that the ability to develop collective resources and collective resilience does not occur unless the disruption is long-term, whereas individual resources are developed in the short term. This signifies that there is a temporal component to developing and enhancing different levels of resilience (Heesen et al, 2010). Previous experience Past disruption experiences can impact future decision-making. Previous research has indicated that past decisions influence future decisions, because when something positive results from a decision, people are more likely to decide in a similar way, given a similar situation (Juliusson, Karlsson, & Garling, 2005). On the other hand, people tend to avoid repeating past mistakes (Sagi, & Friedland, 2007). The findings of our studies align with this literature, as over 80% of all the individuals involved in our studies mentioned that they base their decisions during disruption on past successful actions. Further the participants mentioned that if a decision based on past experiences is not successful it will not be considered in the future. Various other traits of the individual In addition to the aforementioned, the individual’s traits can influence decision making. Although not explored in detail in this study, it seems that the traits, personality, temperament and cognitive biases of an individual also play an important role in the decision making process. These seem to affect the collection and interpretation of information, and the individual’s behaviour during disruption (e.g. individualistic or pro-social behaviour). COPING WITH DISRUPTION Most of the discussions with the participants revolved around the various strategies they employ when they encounter mobility disruption. The most common coping strategy we have observed is ‘time buffering’. Individuals usually make an assumption that they will be late, or that something will go wrong and “build time on one end or the other” of the journey in case that happens. The is exemplified in the following two 10 quotes: “By making that assumption I’m always building in time on one end or the other in which I can scramble for whatever I need. As far as my day to day commute is concerned I only rely on myself. So the only disruption is when I can’t manage to do what I need to do.”, and“I travel reasonably frequently down to West Wales and I travel at night because I know that the traffic disruption is going to be considerably less, it’s just planning around it.” Further, information is deemed extremely important for shielding against disruption. During our initial interviews when we asked the participants ‘how could you minimise disruption in your journey’ most of the interviews answered that cars, mopeds and motorcycles are the best way coupled with a technology that provides real-time information about disruptions, and suggests ways around them (such as in-vehicle satellite-navigation systems). When we expanded this in the focus groups the participants mentioned that technologies and timely, accurate and personalised (TAP) real-time information is probably the best way to insulate against disruption. In addition, when asked to rank the reliability of public transport and car in situations without real-time information, they ranked car higher as “it is more flexible”. However, when presented with a mock-up of a technological solution that provides real-time information about all modes of public transport they ranked the reliability of the public transport and the car the same as: “I will be more confident and when something goes wrong I will find a way around it”. It should be noted that none of the respondents owned a car, and only a handful had intermittent access to one. Moreover, we have identified that kinship networks are also utilised as a way to protect against disruptions (Papangelis et al, 2013). Kinship networks are composed of weak ties and strong ties. The strong ties channels are individuals within the passenger kinship networks, which consist of family members, close friends, work colleagues, and school peers that are considered to be as close as familial links (Ebaugh and Curry, 2000). The weak ties are usually friends of people from their strong ties network, or other passengers, where they have a strong dependence on the connectivity to the individuals travel patterns. The information the passengers are seeking from these networks is usually to increase their situational awareness and information on how to mitigate the effects of disruptions. For example, during our passenger interviews, a participant mentioned that during the heavy snowfall in the Scottish Borders in 2010, she reached home safely not because of information that the operator provided, but from information that the passenger got from a friend of a friend about a local man going through her village with his snowplough. It was explained in our interview that the same individual, picked up other individuals that he did not know personally along the way only because they had shared common networks and ties. Figure 4 captures these information exchanges during times of disruption among strong ties, weak ties and formal information channels. Figure 4 Information exchange between individuals affected by disruption and their kinship network (Adapted from Papangelis, 2013). Further, we observed that individuals exchange information through kinship networks through various technologies. These include smartphone applications (e.g. whatsup, and viber), social media (e.g. twitter), as well as emails, phone calls and text messages. 11 Overall, our findings indicate that disruption in rural areas is seen as an inherent characteristic of the transport system. Even though it usually leads to frustration, it is often not seen as a problem if there is a way around it. In addition, we have identified that infrequent disruptions lead to more often micro adaptations in behaviour while frequent disruptions lead to major adaptations. However, this depends on the individual, as certain groups are more vulnerable than others. In addition, we have identified that individuals in rural areas utilise two main strategies to insulate themselves against disruptions, namely time buffering and use of kinship networks. The findings align with and expand previous studies by providing an initial insight into the rural dweller’s behavioural adaptation during disruption, and can be utilised to inform which combination of policies and strategies can support effective contingency planning and improved travel options for the user and the operator in rural areas during disruption. Self-organisation and resilience of communities There is a vast array of literature discussing and debating resilience, mainly concentrating on community response to environmental and socio-economic change (Wilson, 2012; McManus et al. 2012). Within governance structures across Europe and the UK, the concept of resilience is often found in strategies and policies as part of emergency or disaster planning (see Scottish Government, 2012). However, the use of resilience as a method for understanding passenger behaviour during transport disruption is a relatively new method for the academic transport community. This notion of resilience is concerned with adapting to stresses to maintain acceptable levels of function and identity. Social resilience builds on these themes to represent the ability to withstand shocks due to external factors. Norris et al. (2008) define it as both a reactionary and proactive process: “A process linking a set of adaptive capacities to a positive trajectory of function and adaption after a disturbance” (p. 131). Magis (2010) further contextualises this, defining broader community resilience as “…the existence, development, and engagement of community resources by community members in order to thrive in an environment characterised by change, uncertainty, unpredictability, and surprise. Members of resilient communities intentionally develop personal and collective capacity that they engage to respond to and influence change, to sustain and renew the community, and to develop new trajectories for the communities' future” (p. 401). This definition of resilience has distinct ties with disruption in rural transport. The characteristics of resilience, located in Figure 5, have been used in conjunction with our results of the interviews and focus groups to develop a conceptual model of passenger resilience pathways, depicted in Figure 6. Passenger resilience during a disruption varies with type, impact and duration; it is also influenced by secondary factors including geographic area and passenger alternative transport options. By identifying pathways to passenger resilience through a conceptual model, we aim to link current behaviour patterns with their potential for increasing resilience in times of future disruption with the view to inform policy matters. Eight dimensions of community resilience identified by Magis (2010): Figure 5 Resources and human agency are identified as key characteristics of the social concept of resilience in transport. 12 The model presented in Figure 6 depicts the link between eleven resilience characteristics as emerged from our data (which are under four different groups) for two extreme types of travel and transport disruptions: (1) Short term and low impact disruption and (2) long term high impact disruption. The resilience characteristics presented in the model are formulated from existing resilience literature, and consultation and brainstorming discussion with field experts. Further, various transport disruptions are categorised based on type and impact of a disruption. We have considered only the two extremes of disruptions to obtain an understanding of the extent of possible behaviour patterns (i.e., short term low impact and long term high impact); an example of such short term low impact is 'a road closure due to a minor accident' and an example of a long term high impact disruption is 'travel disruption due to heavy continuous floods'. A series of studies conducted in the Scottish Borders generated the passenger behaviour data and information requirements used in this model. The characteristics of resilience are listed first, with the concepts of strategic action and resources being broken down into more detailed dimensions. Resources, a critical component of resilience, are broken down into resource identification (the need and ability for individuals and groups to identify currently available resources), resource development, and resource engagement. The drivers that affect transport decision-making during disruptions are identified from expert studies, as specific characteristics are believed to impact transport behaviour differently and as such play into the opportunity to enhance resilience of passengers. Finally, we include impact, to demonstrate how specific types of disruption may impact the development of resilient characteristics. From this we identify behavioural traits in line with these characteristics based on the two extreme disruption occurrences, a) short-term, low impact disruption, and b) long-term, high impact disruption. Proactive individual and collective human agency is a key characteristic of resilience. Based on the preliminary data, individual action and collective action occur differently during short term and long-term disruption: in the short term, actions are marked with individualism, whereas in the long term, actions steadily become more collective and pro-social. This is particularly interesting as it appears that the ability to develop collective resources and collective resilience does not occur unless the disruption is long-term, whereas individual resources are developed in the short term. This signifies that there is a temporal component to developing and enhancing different levels of resilience. In resilience theory, communities are not resourceful, but rather have resources that can be developed, expanded or exhausted over time. The capacity to act is not enough to develop resilience; it is the action taken that is critical (Magis, 2010). The identification of resources by the passenger results in them accessing those resources to create new travel arrangements. This process is identified as more relevant in the long-term disruption data. In the short-term, individual information provision is more relevant. Studying the drivers for transport adaptation has provided some preliminary results, demonstrating that whilst in all cases previous experience and knowledge are utilised, alternative options (also a resource available to rural passengers), become more intensively analysed and utilised the longer the disruption. Demographic and socio-economic characteristics, trust in information, and social norms also impact behaviour, but play out differently depending on the type of disruption. This also demonstrates a need to understand the temporal distinctions in behaviour. Understanding these characteristics in communities prior to disruption can allow planners to have a better understanding of behaviour patterns and how to lessen the impact if disruption occurs. Finally, the impact of such disruption is analysed in the context of the potential to develop resilience characteristics. In the short-term, changes made are non-drastic, rarely permanent and do not tend to result in adapted behaviour once the recovery period is over. In the event of a long-term disruption however, adaptations are more extreme, occasionally resulting in permanent changes to behaviour in an effort to lessen the impact of future disruption, demonstrating the ability for disruption to contribute to the creation and enhancement of passenger resilience. 13 Figure 6 The link between eleven resilience characteristics as emerged from our data. 14 PASSENGER RECOVERY PHASES TO DISRUPTION Through the interviews and focus groups, we identified the passenger recovery phases to disruption from the passenger perspective during transit. Each recovery phase of disruption has unique information requirements and associated travel behaviour. The recovery phases identified are: i) pre-disruption, ii) warning, iii) response, iv) impact, and v) recovery. It should be noted that the warning stage might occur only during planned disruptions (e.g., pre-planned strikes), and not in un-planned disruptions. Figure 7 illustrates the passenger recovery phases to disruption. A description of each of these phases follows. Figure 7 Disruption recovery phases Pre-disruption phase Passengers’ routines and travel habits are characterised by normality and continuity. Our findings regarding the information requirements of the period before disruption broadly align with the findings of previous research by Deeter (2009) and Zimmerman et al. (2011). That is, information is required/desired pre-trip, at the boarding point and in-vehicle. This information relates to upcoming services, journey planning facilities as well as information about upcoming or current disruptions. In addition, our research has illustrated that the proliferation of new technologies (e.g. smartphones) has resulted in a change in the information needs of individuals from static to dynamic and mobile, as over 50% of the interviewees would like to receive the RTPI on their phone through various channels (e.g. App, SMS, etc). Over 70% of these participants mentioned that this information should be directed to their needs and not be generic. This illustrates a desire for TAP information, which is especially important during disruption, as one interview participant stated: “information is good. We have information. The problem is that the information we get during disruptions is rubbish; is usually out of date and generic. Getting information in your phone would be great. However, it would have been up-to-date and directed to my travel. I don’t want to get information about a disruption in Edinburgh or disruption about a bus I am not on or intend to take”. Warning phase During this phase, the potentially affected population is notified of the pending disruption. The warning usually states the nature of the problem, but it often fails to offer an assessment of the consequences (e.g., extension in journey times for specific destinations). After warning about an upcoming disruption, individuals with knowledge of the local transport network gain situational awareness and begin to understand the effects of disruption on their journey. Individuals unfamiliar with the transport network will often try to anticipate the effects based on imperfect knowledge and might be optimistic or pessimistic based on their personality or past experiences. 15 Warning for an upcoming disruption, and the associated degree of notice, has the potential to significantly affect the travel routine of the individual. For example, over 70% of participants during the passenger interviews mentioned that when they know that there is disruption in the bus service they intend to use, they adapt to it (e.g. by car-sharing, cycling or walking). However, advance warning for an upcoming disruption is not common in rural areas. This is vividly illustrated by the following rural passenger quote: “You only find out there is a disruption when the bus does not show up. There is almost no information about disruptions, delays or problems“. Most information about disruptions in rural areas is provided to passengers via posters on the bus and at bus stops. However, most of the time, that information is operator centric, and does not suggest alternative travel options (e.g. services run by other (non-affiliated) operators or community services). The information requirements of the passengers during the warning phase changes depending on the stage of the journey. During pre-trip, most of the participants agreed that timely and accurate information about network status and TAP notification of upcoming disruptions on the services is critical, as this information will direct their travel plans for the day. At the boarding point the participants discussed the need for detailed TAP information about on-going or upcoming disruptions that will affect the passengers’ trip. This is illustrated in the following rural passenger quote: “When you are awaiting for the bus knowing what doesn’t work or knowing when there are issues, is very important, if you know things like this you can adjust your journey accordingly”. Once on board a vehicle, the participants agreed that prompt information about any disruption to the service or connecting services, and how these will affect the passengers’ journey is critical. This is important as situational awareness plays an important role in the choices of individuals, as it is the main driver for understanding the currently on-going incident, and reacting to it (Starbird and Palen, 2011). Response phase During this phase the passenger looks for preventive measures to mitigate the effects of disruptions and recover the journey. The timeliness of a warning has the potential to alter the ability of the passenger to respond. The extent of the success of any attempts to mitigation of the effects of disruption depends on the previous experience that the individual has with similar types of disruptions. Usually during the response phase, the individuals affected by disruption begin to gather as much information as possible from multiple channels; these might include formal as well as informal sources. The formal channels may include the vehicle driver, the operator and local media. The informal channels may include friends, relatives or other travellers familiar with the locality. However, the value of information depends on the individual passenger’s perceptions, experience and attitude towards the information sources. In many cases during our interviews, individuals demonstrated a preference for information from people directly involved in the event (e.g. from travellers on a delayed bus), rather than formal sources as “they do not provide relevant and up-to-date information” and “most of the times they are wrong”. Two types of informal channels can be identified: strong ties channels and weak ties channels (Figure 4). Granovetter (1973) discussed how and when the individuals who comprise one’s closest group do not possess the information or social resources that one needs in order to conduct their daily life, weak ties can be invaluable resources. Over 80% of the participants agreed that they tend to utilise these networks during high impact disruptions. The information that the passengers are seeking from these networks is usually to increase their situational awareness and information on how to mitigate the effects of disruptions. Obviously, not all the individuals in weak and strong ties of an individual impacted by a disruption have timely and accurate information. However, they might have pieces of information by hearing from others, seeing and feeling through various platforms they might have access to (social networks, websites, blogs, local media, their own network of strong and weak social ties etc.) (Maclean and Dailey, 2001; Politis et al., 2010) or advice based on their own experience. Figure 8 captures these information exchanges during times of disruption among strong ties, weak ties and formal information channels. The solid lines in Figure 8 illustrate the information that the individual is getting is from formal information channels, and strong ties, while the dotted lines show the information that the individual is receiving is from weak ties. 16 Figure 8 Information acquisition and exchange during disruption Overall, the information requirements of this phase were identified by the participants as: (a) TAP information regarding alternative modes, routes and arrangements, and (b) TAP updates on current situation, the effects of disruption on their travel, a planning facility, and prediction of how long the disruption will last. Impact phase In this phase, the actual disruption takes place. Individuals may be temporarily confused during the disruption. Our research findings have illustrated that when disruptions are of low impact, the actions of the passengers are marked by individualism (i.e. not helping individuals outside their social sphere), and only minor temporary travel behaviour adaptations are evident (e.g., catch an earlier bus). However, these minor adaptations can become a longer term feature of travel choices. For example, several participants in our interviews in Scottish Borders mentioned that they tend not to take the 10:00 Friday service, because they know the local farmers move their sheep and horses between fields and that causes delays. When a disruption has high impact, the actions of the passengers are marked by individualism in the earlier stages and pro-social behaviour in the later stages (i.e. altruistically help individuals outside their social sphere). This was discussed extensively among the participants in relation to the heavy snowfall of 2010 in the Scottish Borders, which left all public transport immobilized for several weeks. During this time, the passengers initially utilised their strong and weak social ties to acquire the necessary travel and transport information. Then as the disruption evolved, from a temporary activity to more permanent, people sharing similar routes started self-organising and coming up with creative co-operative solutions to overcome travel issues. For example, individuals living in Longtown (a small rural village in the Scottish Borders) started a communal car sharing scheme, where families with a car were helping other families or the elderly with their daily commutes, shopping etc. The information requirements of this phase as emerged from the rural passenger interviews and bus and car users and cyclists focus groups are: information regarding alternative services, mode and routes, updates on current situation and the effects it has on their travel, planning facility with information about disruption, and predicting the duration of the disruption. Recovery phase In this phase, the disruption is over. The passenger either returns to their pre-disruption normality or maintains the routine acquired during the disruption (or a variant of it). Our research findings illustrate that the former has the same information requirements as the pre-disruption phase and is more prevalent in low impact or short disruptions. The latter is more prevalent in high impact or protracted periods of disruption. Barley (1986) describes that external events can be so intense that they cause slippages (i.e. deviations from 17 normality), to take place. When slippages persist, they become replicated patterns that people must adapt to on a continual basis. As a result, individuals restructure their patterns of action in order to adapt to changing circumstance. Thus, a disrupted environment, which affects people’s normal routines, can be a trigger for people to develop new routines, or new patterns of action, to adapt to the changed environment. It should be noted that the new routine of the individual is limited to the available alternatives. This has also been identified in a limited extent in the transport behaviour literature (for example see Cairns, 2002; Zhu and Levinson, 2008). Supporting a new travel normality with TAP information can be done in two ways: a) by presupposing what the new travel normality will be, and by supporting it in advance, and b) by designing an RTPI system that is grounded in the needs for “loose fit”, that is designing the RTPI system so that unexpected uses of the system can be accommodated (Fisher, 2011). Overall, the information requirements of the new normality are characterised by the same need for accurate, timely and personalised information in various phases of the journey. Table 3 summarises the information requirements and the travel behaviour of each recovery phase. 18 Disruption phase Predisruption Characteristics Information requirements Period before a disruption occurs. Warning The potentially affected population is notified of the pending disruption. Response Preventive measures are taken to mitigate the potential effects or lessen the effects of disruption for the current and subsequent journeys. The actual disruption takes place. Impact Recovery Normal travel behaviour resumes. OR New travel emerges. Travel behaviour Pre-trip, in vehicle and at the boarding point, timely and accurate information about the status of the network, Timely Accurate and Personalised information about the upcoming services, planning facility as well as information about upcoming or current disruptions. Pre-trip, and at the point of travel TAP notification regarding planned and ongoing disruptions. In-vehicle information about own vehicle disruption, connecting services disruptions, and how these will affect the passengers’ journey is critical. Information is required during pre-trip, at the boarding point, and in vehicle. TAP provision of information regarding alternative modes/routes/arrangements. TAP updates on current situation and the effects of RTPI information on their travel. Planning facility with TAP information about disruption. Prediction of how long the disruption will last. Travel behaviour is characterised by normality and continuity. TAP information similar to pre-disruption phase. TAP information similar to pre-disruption phase tailored to maintain the new travel behaviour or encourage particular options. In low impact, short disruptions the passenger returns to their old travel behaviour. In high impact or long disruptions passengers may maintain the adaptation after the disruption. Once warned the passenger begins to understand the effects of disruption on their journey. Looking for (trusted) channels of TAP information The passengers look for ways to mitigate the potential effects or lessen the effects of disruption through the use of personal networks. The actions of the individuals are marked by individualism in low impact disruptions and pro social behaviour in high impact. During low impact disruption, small travel adaptations in the individuals' routine are prevalent. During high impact disruption, the individuals adapt their routine significantly. behaviour Table 3 The information requirements and the travel behaviour of each disruption phase 19 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION In this paper we discussed findings of a study that aimed to explore rural disruptions from a passenger and community perspective. In detail we identified patterns of passenger behaviours during travel and transport disruptions; explored the community resilience in rural areas; developed a conceptual model of the recovery phases of disruption; and identified information requirements relevant for each recovery phase. Our results indicate that the current provision of information in rural areas regarding disruption does not meet passengers' needs, and that passengers are looking for TAP information during pre-trip, at boarding point and on-trip information during the various recovery phases of disruption. The conceptual model of the phases of disruption, the associated passenger information requirements and the broad travel behaviour of each phase has been evaluated through a two-stage process. The first stage included reflection upon the interviews and focus groups. This stage shaped and our choices during the development of the conceptual model. The second phase included interviews with three domain experts. This phase refined our model through critique (see Table 1 for more information). The evaluation indicated that the model offers a framework for the understanding of disruption, the associated information required, and the effects it has on travel behaviour. Also there is a need for better understanding of disruption and its effects and a structured approach such as that used in developing the conceptual model. The evidence identified from the rural public transport users' RTPI requirements during disruptions shows that a range of information is required for each recovery phase of disruption. For example: (1) during the pre-disruption phase, passengers need information about the severity and effect of disruptions on their travel and transport; and (2) in the case of the warning and response phase, passengers like to have TAP information on the current status of the transport and alternative transport options to hand. Provision of RTPI during disruptions has the potential to significantly affect the passenger comfort level, anxiety level and their travel behaviour. Through our research, it was also identified that normally in rural areas information about disruptions is displayed through posters on buses and at stops; and this information is only about pre-planned disruption and is operator dependent. In order to provide detailed TAP information, certain transport technology and infrastructure (e.g., Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) systems on buses and variable message signs in-vehicle and at stops) is required. The deployment of such transport infrastructure is generally limited to urban areas and cities; rural areas generally suffer a lack of such transport infrastructure (Nalevanko and Henry, 2001). This might be because of: (1) fewer passengers; therefore no encouragement to operators to provide current transport information; (2) rural areas being sparsely populated, making it difficult to collect travel/traffic information from the system; (3) the widespread use of request stops by the passengers; (4) and the higher cost associated with developing, deploying and maintaining these technologies in a rural environment (Velaga et al., 2012). Recent advances in mobile communications and digital technologies may offer the prospect of addressing these gaps in provision of TAP RTPI during disruptions. Examples of such advances include broadband internet access coverage, smart mobile phones and personal computer ownership. RTPI can be disseminated to the end users through their phone through various channels (e.g. App, SMS) (Velaga et al., 2012a). Further, collaborative working of different public transport service providers and development of a system to integrate information from different modes of transport with other open data (e.g., weather reports, road works) could further enhance the RTPI provision during disruptions. Moreover, development of a formal system that allows linking a passenger who is waiting for a public transport in a remote area with a co-passenger who has already commenced their journey and who has knowledge of the current situation and disruption could take the system to further level. Capturing, disseminating and linking with other data is a complex information exchange but may be feasible through social media, as individuals are more likely produce TAP information directed to personal ties, and trusting information coming from personal ties. However, there are some barriers to bringing together transport and technology solutions to enhance RTPI provision during disruptions particularly in remote areas; this includes signal coverage and network availability, and the skills required to use the latest digital systems. This leads to notions of ‘rural digital divide’ with various factors such as geographical area, gender, age, income, and race (Velaga et al., 2012). 20 In terms of managerial practice this study provides an initial stepping stone towards understanding the interplay between disruption and RTPI systems and informing the necessary technological advances that will support the rural dwellers in trip recovery during mobility disruption. Given the presence of ‘resilience’ as a concept in government vernacular particularly in the emergency and disaster management sectors, this method is ideally suited to provide transport service planners with a guide to develop services better suited to passenger behaviour and resilience. The interplay between technologies, disruption and communities in rural areas is an under-researched area. The findings of this work relate to both the latest reorientation of the industry towards the passengers’ needs, and the new wave of research exploring social media and mobility disruptions. Future research should concentrate in utilising alternative methodologies to address the limitations of this work. For example, questionnaires could be used in multiple research areas to further explore the passenger recovery phases to disruption and community resilience against the provision of real time information in the various communities. 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