Agenda Title:
The Behavioral Economics of Transportation
Travel Time, Mode Choice, and Carbon Impact
Revised Title:
Behavioral Economics as a Framework to
Compliment Existing Transportation Choice
Research Strategies and Policy Solutions
Steven R. Hursh, Ph.D.
President and Adjunct Professor
Mike Magoon, Ph.D.
Research Scientist
Security, Energy, and Environment
So why did we change our title?
• Though we are not new to behavior change research and technology, we
are new to Transportation Choice
• Going in to this we did not fully know the “known knowns” or
the “known unknowns” of the Transportation Choice literature
• As we got further into the literature, we started to see that
there is a lot of good work already being done on:
•
•
•
•
Travel Time and Mode Choice: Homan (2010); Tanaka (2010); Pita & Anton (2001)
Ridership Forecasting: Oster, et al. (2011); Cambridge Systematics (2005)
Carbon Impact: Kosinski, Schipper, & Deakin (2010); CCAP & CNT (2006)
All Three!: California HSR Authority (2005); Regina Clewlow—this session!
• We know we have an extremely robust framework based on decades of
behavioral research that we believe can add value to the conversation
• Our challenge: Bring the literatures together in a way that provides
objective data—based on well-established behavioral principles—
that can lead to effective solutions
Behavioral Economics as a Framework to Compliment Existing
Transportation Choice Research Strategies and Policy Solutions
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You’ve probably heard of Behavioral Economics, but did you
know there are two different perspectives?
“Cognitive” Behavioral Economics
“Behavioral” Behavioral Economics
• Focus in on taking advantage of cognitive
biases that most people learn over the lifetime
• Primarily deductive in approach
• Predicts behavior with point estimates
• Seminal writings: Kahneman & Tversky, (1979);
Thaler & Sunstein (2008)
• Focuses on demonstrating direct influences of
the environment on observable behavior
• Primarily inductive in approach
• Predicts behavior with functional relationships
• Seminal writings: Rachlin, Green, Kagel, &
Battalio (1976); Hursh (1978, 1980, 1984)
Focuses on:
Focuses on:
S
A
C
A
S
Environment
A
C
S
Environment
C
A
S
C
A
C
A
A
This approach
hasn’t had the
same public
relations success…
A
C
…mostly because
no one has really
tried yet
(everyone’s busy
collecting data!)
Behavioral Economics as a Framework to Compliment Existing
Transportation Choice Research Strategies and Policy Solutions
3
The behavioral approach is being successfully applied to a
variety of socially-important behaviors
Exponential Demand
Total Output of Responses
10000.0
Omax
9007
Q0
7500.0
100
Total Output
Basic
Principles
Consumption (Reinforcers)
1000
-1
10
5000.0
2500.0
Pmax
169
0.0
1
1
10
100
1
1000
10
100
1000
10000
Cost (FR)
Cost (FR)
Human - Hypothetical Demand
Humans - Cigarette Puffs
Pigeons - Grain
100
100
R2 = 0.97
15 sec
9 sec
3 sec
1
10
Log Consumption
Log Consumption
α = 9.4e-006
10
R2 = 0.98
1
0.1
α = 5.7e-006
10
R2 = 0.978
α = 0.00145
Heroin
Cigarettes α = 0.0108
1
Giordano, Bickel, Shahan & Badger, 2001
Peden & Timberlake, 1983
Baseline
Behavioral
Economic
Analysis
of…
Log Consumption (g)
100
1
10
100
Log Unit Price (pecks/g)
1000
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000 10000 100000
Log Price
Jacobs & Bickel, 1999
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
Log Unit Price
Behavioral Economics as a Framework to Compliment Existing
Transportation Choice Research Strategies and Policy Solutions
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There’s no reason to think that transportation mode choice is
substantially different from other choices
European HSR Rail “Consumption”
Rail Market Share
Food Pellets Consumed
A Single Rat Working for Food
Programmed Delay
Rail Trip Duration
Behavioral Economics as a Framework to Compliment Existing
Transportation Choice Research Strategies and Policy Solutions
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We believe data generated with this model can integrate with
the existing transportation literature and data
European HSR Rail “Consumption”
Carbon Emissions by Trip Duration
0.6
CostBenefit
Analysis
CO2 Emissions Per
Passenger mile*
Rail Market Share
0.55
0.5
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
Rail Trip Duration
• For a constant trip length
(within certain parameters), as
rail trip duration decreases,
market share will increase
• Peterman, Frittelli, & Mallett (2009)
• Pita & Anton (2001)
• California High Speed Rail Authority (2005)
Rail Trip Duration
• For the same trip, as trip duration
decreases and thus rail market share
increases, overall emissions will decrease
• Kosinski, Schipper, & Deakin (2010)
• Estimates between 2 and 10 MT CO2 per year
• Represents between .5% and 2% of yearly US CO2
emissions
But you already know this, so what’s new?
Behavioral Economics as a Framework to Compliment Existing
Transportation Choice Research Strategies and Policy Solutions
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Behavioral economics provides a framework for studying the
impact of environment/behavior-based interventions on choice
Behavioral Principle
Behavioral Measurement
Consequences/Reinforcement
• Type (e.g., feedback vs. tangibles)
• Frequency
• Immediacy/Delay
Implications for
Research and Policy
Our field has been measuring observable
behavior across species and settings for
decades
Not all consequences are equal!
Decades of behavioral research have taught us
how to maximize the strength of reinforcement
for more effective public policy solutions
Stimulus Control
Behavior is controlled by "signals", but effective
signals are more than information; they build on
sound principles of stimulus control
There’s a lot more…
Let’s talk!
We are looking for collaborators to work with us on some of the
“known unknowns” and the “unknown unknowns”
(and maybe even looking again at some of the “known knowns!”)
Behavioral Economics as a Framework to Compliment Existing
Transportation Choice Research Strategies and Policy Solutions
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Thank You!
For more information, please contact:
Mike Magoon
[email protected]
301.634.9569
Steve Hursh
[email protected]
410.752.6080, ext 150