Proposition 8




April 2008: Nearly 1.1 million signatures
delivered to CA Secretary of State
May 15, 2008: CA Supreme Court issues
In Re Marriage Cases decision
June 2, 2008: Proposition 8 certified for
November 4, 2008 ballot
June 15, 2008: same-sex couples start
marrying in California
1
Proposition 8: The Media War








August 2008: Let California
Ring airs “Tripping Bride” ad
constantly during Beijing
Olympics TV coverage
September 2008: Let California
Ring print and radio ads run in
ethnic media outlets until the
end of the month
September 22 2008: First NO
ON 8 ad airs: “Don’t Eliminate
Marriage For Anyone”
September 29 2008: First YES
on 8 ad airs “Whether You Like It
Or Not”
October 7 2008: Yes on 8 airs
“Princes” ad
October 22 2008: No on 8 airs
response to “Princes” ad
October 23 2008: Yes on 8
responds with “Truth”
October 30 2008: No on 8
ends the campaign with
“Divisive” and “Discrimination”
2
Proposition 8 Aftermath

Certified Election Results on Proposition 8


Statewide
 YES 7,001,084 (52.30%)
 NO 6,401,482 (47.70%)
 Margin: 599,602 (4.6%)
 Voter Turnout: 13,743,177 out of 17,304,091
(79.42%)
Los Angeles County
 YES 1,624,672 (50.04%)
 NO 1,622,287 (49.96%)
 Margin: 2,385
 Turnout: 3,246,959 out of 4,111,642 (79%)
3
Black vs. Gay: Proposition 8 Aftermath


CNN Exit Poll Released showed that 70%
of African Americans voted in favor of
Proposition 8 (later revised down to 5758% by an academic analysis)
Media narrative became Blacks versus
Gays

Between Nov. 4-Nov 18 I appeared in
 The Los Angeles Times
 Good Morning America (Sunday)
 KABC-TV
 Local radio stations (KCRW-FM, KPFK-FM)
4
Why Gay is NOT ‘the new Black’
1.
2.
3.
4.
There are people who are both Black and Gay
Although both communities have experienced
identity-based discrimination, slavery (and its
incidents) is simply not equivalent to what LGBT
have experienced
The phrase and the comparison trivializes both
the experience of Black people and LGBT people
in this country
To paraphrase Dan Savage, the gay rights
movement is a civil rights movement but the
movement for racial equality is the Civil Rights
Movement.
5
The Future!?

Blogger Nate Silver
(fivethirtyeight.com) has
looked at the 30 states that
have voted to amend their
constitution and done a
regression analysis which
shows that the most
important factors are
1. The year in which the
amendment was voted
upon;
2. The percentage of adults in
2008 Gallup tracking
surveys who said that
religion was an important
part of their daily lives;
3. The percentage of white
evangelicals in the state.

When extrapolated into the
future it shows the year in
which a similar vote to ban
gay marriage would fail in
each state
6