Theoretical Tutorial Session 1 Xiaoming Song Department of Mathematics Drexel University July 25, 2016 1 / 48 Basic properties for Brownian motion 1. Selfsimilarity: 1 For any a > 0, the process {a− 2 Bat , t ≥ 0} is also a Brownian motion. 1 Proof: Let Yt = a− 2 Bat . It is obvious that the process 1 {Yt = a− 2 Bat , t ≥ 0} is an Gaussian process with zero mean and continuous trajectories. It is sufficient to show that for any 0 ≤ s ≤ t < +∞ the covariance function E(Yt Ys ) = s which is proved as follows: 1 1 E(Yt Ys ) = E(a− 2 Bat a− 2 Bas ) = a−1 E(Bat Bas ) = a−1 (as) = s. 2 / 48 2. For any h > 0, the process {Bt+h − Bh , t ≥ 0} is a Brownian motion. Proof: Let Yt = Bt+h − Bh . We know that the process {Yt = Bt+h − Bh , t ≥ 0} is an Gaussian process with zero mean and continuous trajectories. Next, we calculate its covariance function: for any 0 ≤ s ≤ t < +∞, E(Yt Ys ) = E((Bt+h − Bh )(Bs+h − Bh )) = E(Bt+h Bs+h ) − E(Bh Bs+h ) − E(Bt+h Bh ) + E(Bh Bh ) = (s + h) − h − h + h = s. Therefore, the process {Bt+h − Bh , t ≥ 0} is a Brownian motion. 3 / 48 3. The process {−Bt , t ≥ 0} is a Brownian motion. Proof: This process is a Gaussian process with zero mean and continuous trajectories, and for any 0 ≤ s ≤ t < +∞, E((−Bt )(−Bs )) = E(Bt Bs ) = s. Thus, The process {−Bt , t ≥ 0} is a Brownian motion. 4 / 48 Chebyshev’s inequality If ξ is a random variable with E(|ξ|p ) < ∞, then for any λ > 0 P(|ξ| > λ) ≤ E(|ξ|p ) . λp 5 / 48 Borel-Cantelli lemma Lemma Let A1 , A2P , A3 , . . . be a sequence of events in a probability space. If ∞ n=1 P(An ) < ∞, then the probability that infinitely many of them occur is 0, that is, P(lim sup An ) = 0. n→∞ Note that lim sup An = n→∞ ∞ [ ∞ \ Ak n=1 k =n 6 / 48 Strong law of large numbers Theorem If ξ1 , ξ2 , ξ3 , . . . is a sequence of iid random variables and µ = E(ξ1 ) < ∞, then Pn ξ1 + ξ2 + · · · + ξn i=1 ξi = →µ n n almost surely as n → ∞. 7 / 48 Bt t→∞ t 4. Almost surely lim = 0 and the process ( tB1/t , t > 0; Xt = 0, t = 0 is a Brownian motion. Bn n→∞ n Proof: We first show that lim = 0 which is true by using the strong law of large numbers since Pn (Bi − Bi−1 ) Bn = i=1 n n and B1 − B0 , B2 − B1 , . . . , Bn − Bn−1 , . . . are iid with law N(0, 1). 8 / 48 Then for any t > 0 and t ∈ [n, n + 1) for some n, we have Bt − Bn = Bt − Bn + Bn − Bn t n t t t n sups∈[n,n+1] |Bs − Bn | 1 1 ≤ + |Bn | − t n t sups∈[n,n+1] |Bs − Bn | |Bn | ≤ + . n n Bn n→∞ n Note that lim (1) = 0 implies lim n→∞ |Bn | = 0. n (2) 9 / 48 Since the sequence of random variables { sup |Bs − Bn |, n ≥ 1} s∈[n−1,n] are iid with the same law as the integrable random variable sups∈[0,1] |Bs |, using the strong law of large numbers again we can show that Pn i=1 sups∈[i−1,i] |Bs − Bi | → E( sup |Bs |) < ∞ n s∈[0,1] almost surely, as n → ∞. 10 / 48 Then, the above results yields sups∈[n,n+1] |Bs − Bn | n i=1 sups∈[i−1,i] |Bs − Bi | Pn−1 Pn = n Pn i=1 sups∈[i−1,i] |Bs i=1 − − Bi | sups∈[i−1,i] |Bs − Bi | n Pn−1 i=1 sups∈[i−1,i] |Bs − Bi | − n →E( sup |Bs |) − E( sup |Bs |)(1) = 0, = s∈[0,1] n−1 n−1 n (3) s∈[0,1] as n → ∞. The fact of imply |Bt | t ≤ Bt t − Bn n + |Bn | n together with (1), (2) and (3) Bt = 0. t→∞ t lim 11 / 48 Bt t→∞ t For the process X , using lim = 0 almost surely we can prove that the trajectories are continuous almost surely. The process X is a Gaussian process with zero mean. For any 0 ≤ s ≤ t < ∞, we have E(Xt Xs ) = E((tB1/t )(sB1/s )) = (t)(s)E(B1/t B1/s ) = (t)(s)(1/t) = s. Therefore, X is also a Brownian motion. 12 / 48 Fatou’s lemma Lemma Let ξ1 , ξ2 , ξ3 , . . . be a sequence of non-negative random variables on a probability space (Ω, F, P), then E(lim inf ξn ) ≤ lim inf E(ξn ). n→∞ n→∞ Let ξ1 , ξ2 , ξ3 , . . . be a sequence of non-negative random variables on a probability space (Ω, F, P). If there exists a non-negative integrable random variable η such that ξn ≤ η for all n, then lim sup E(ξn ) ≤ E(lim sup ξn ). n→∞ n→∞ 13 / 48 Hewitt-Savage 0-1 law Theorem Let ξ1 , ξ2 , ξ3 , . . . be a sequence of independent and identically-distributed (iid) random variables taking values in a set E. Then, any event whose occurrence or non-occurrence is determined by the values of these random variables and whose occurrence or non-occurrence is unchanged by finite permutations of the indices, has probability either 0 or 1. 14 / 48 5. lim supt→∞ Bt √ t = ∞ and lim inft→∞ Bt √ t = −∞. Proof: It suffices to show that lim supn→∞ Bn lim infn→∞ √ n Bn √ n = ∞ and = −∞. For any positive constant C, we have Bn Bn P lim sup √ > C = P lim sup √ > C n n n→∞ n→∞ Bn √ >C (Fatou’s lemma) ≥ lim sup P n n→∞ = lim sup P (B1 > C) (Scaling property) n→∞ >0. 15 / 48 Let ξn = Bn − Bn−1 , n ≥ 1. Then ξ1 , ξ2 , ξ3 , . . . is a sequence of iid random variables. Note that the event Pn Bn k√ =1 ξk √ > C = lim sup >C lim sup n n n→∞ n→∞ is unchanged by finite permutations of the indices. Hence, by Hewitt-Savage 0 − 1 law together with the last inequality on previous page, we have Bn P lim sup √ > C = 1. n n→∞ Since C is arbitrary, we can show that lim supn→∞ Bn √ n = ∞. Since {−Bt , t ≥ 0} is also a Brownian motion, we can show that Bn −Bn Bn lim inf √ = lim inf √ = − lim sup √ = −∞. n→∞ n→∞ n n n n→∞ 16 / 48 Remark: From the Exercise 5, we obtain the following result P(lim sup Bt = +∞) = 1, (4) t→∞ and P(lim inf Bt = −∞) = 1. (5) P(lim sup Bt = +∞, lim inf Bt = −∞) = 1. (6) t→∞ Furthermore, t→∞ t→∞ 17 / 48 6. Show that for each fixed t ≥ 0 Bt+h − Bt = ∞ = 1. P ω ∈ Ω : lim sup h h→0+ Proof: Given this Brownian motion B, we construct another Brownian motion X defined in Exercise 4: ( tB1/t , t > 0; Xt = 0, t = 0. Then for any t ≥ 0, we obtain lim sup n→∞ Bt+ 1 − Bt n 1 n = lim sup n→∞ B 1 − B0 n 1 n (Exercise 2) √ ≥ lim sup nB 1 n→∞ n Xn = lim sup √ = ∞ (Previous exercise). n n→∞ 18 / 48 7. Almost surely the paths of B are not differentiable at any point t ≥ 0, more precisely, the set ω ∈ Ω : for each t ∈ [0, ∞), either lim sup h→0+ Bt+h − Bt =∞ h Bt+h − Bt = −∞ or lim inf h h→0+ contains an event A ∈ F with P(A) = 1. Proof: Denote h→0+ Bt+h − Bt h D+ Bt = lim inf + Bt+h − Bt . h D + Bt = lim sup and h→0 19 / 48 It suffices to show the result on the interval [0, 1]. For any fixed integers j ≥ 1 and k ≥ 1, define [ \ Ajk = {ω ∈ Ω : |Bt+h (ω) − Bt (ω)| ≤ jh}. t∈[0,1] h∈[0,1/k ] Note that Ajk is not an event, that is Ajk ∈ / F. Note also that {ω ∈ Ω : −∞ < D+ Bt (ω) ≤ D + Bt (ω) < ∞, for some t ∈ [0, 1]} ∞ [ ∞ [ = Ajk . j=1 k =1 Then the proof of the result will be complete if we can find an event C ∈ F with P(C) = 0 such that Ajk ⊆ C for all j and k . 20 / 48 For any fixed j and k , we consider a sample path ω ∈ Ajk , that is, there exists t ∈ [0, 1] with |Bt+h (ω) − Bt (ω)| ≤ jh for all h ∈ [0, 1/k ]. Let n be an integer with n ≥ 4k . Then there exists some i, i 1 ≤ i ≤ n such that i−1 n ≤ t < n . Then it is also easy to verify that, for l = 1, 2, 3, l +1 1 i +l −t ≤ ≤ . n n k Thus, |B i+1 (ω) − B i (ω)| ≤ |B i+1 (ω) − Bt (ω)| + |B i (ω) − Bt (ω)| n n n n 2j j 3j + = , ≤ n n n 21 / 48 |B i+2 (ω) − B i+1 (ω)| ≤ |B i+2 (ω) − Bt (ω)| + |B i+1 (ω) − Bt (ω)| n n n n 3j 2j 5j ≤ + = , n n n and |B i+3 (ω) − B i+2 (ω)| ≤ |B i+3 (ω) − Bt (ω)| + |B i+2 (ω) − Bt (ω)| n n n n 3j 7j 4j + = . ≤ n n n Now denote (n) Ci = 3 \ l=1 (2l + 1)j ω ∈ Ω : B i+l (ω) − B i+l−1 (ω) ≤ . n n n (n) Then, we can see that Ci for all n ≥ 4k . is an event in F and Ajk ⊆ (n) i=1 Ci Sn 22 / 48 Note that the random variables √ n B i+l − B i+l−1 , l = 1, 2, 3, n n are iid with law N(0, 1). Note also that if a random variable ξ has law N(0, 1) then P(|ξ| ≤ x) ≤ x, for any x ≥ 0. Therefore, we have 5j 7j 105j 3 3j (n) √ √ √ = , i = 1, 2, · · · , n. P(Ci ) ≤ 3 n n n n2 Then n [ 105j 3 (n) Ci ) ≤ √ . n i=1 P( 23 / 48 Take ∞ [ n \ C= (n) Ci ∈ F. n=4k i=1 Then Ajk ⊆ C and it also holds that P(C) = P( ∞ [ n \ (n) Ci ) ≤ inf P( n=4k i=1 n≥4k n [ (n) Ci ) = 0, i=1 which completes the proof. 24 / 48 Properties of the conditional expectation 8. Linearity: E(aX + bY |G) = aE(X |G) + bE(Y |G). Proof: aE(X |G) + bE(Y |G) is G-measurable. For any A ∈ G, Z Z E(aX + bY |G)dP = (aX + bY )dP A A Z Z = a XdP + b YdP A ZA Z =a E(X |G)dP + b E(Y |G)dP A Z A = (aE(X |G) + bE(Y |G))dP, A which implies E(aX + bY |G) = aE(X |G) + bE(Y |G). 25 / 48 9. E(E(X |G)) = E(X ). Proof: In the definition of conditional expectation, let A = Ω, then Z Z E(E(X |G)) = E(X |G)dP = XdP = E(X ). Ω Ω 26 / 48 10. If X and G are independent, then E(X |G) = E(X ). Proof: It is obvious that E(X ) is G-measurable. For any A ∈ G, Z Z E(X |G)dP = XdP = E(1A X ) A A = E(1A )E(X ) (X and 1A are independent) = P(A)E(X ) Z = E(X )dP. A Thus, it implies that E(X |G) = E(X ). 27 / 48 11. If X is G-measurable, then E(X |G) = X . Proof: The proof follows from the fact that X is G-measurable and the definition of conditional expectation: for any A ∈ G Z Z E(X |G)dP = XdP. A A 28 / 48 Dominated convergence theorem Theorem Let ξ1 , ξ2 , ξ3 , . . . be a sequence of random variables. If the sequence {ξn } converges almost surely to a random variable ξ and there exists a positive and integrable random variable η such that |ξn | ≤ η for all n, then lim E(|ξn − ξ|) = 0, n→∞ which also implies lim E(ξn ) = E(ξ). n→∞ 29 / 48 12. If Y is bounded and G-measurable, then E(XY |G) = YE(X |G). Proof: If Y = 1B is an indicator function where B ∈ G, then for any A ∈ G Z Z Z E(YX |G)dP = 1B XdP = XdP A A A∩B Z = E(X |G)dP A∩B = intA 1B E(X |G)dP, which implies E(XY |G) = YE(X |G). By the linearity of conditional expectation, we know that the result is true if Y is a simple function (a linear combination of indicator functions). 30 / 48 If Y is bounded G-measurable function, then there exists a sequence of simple functions Yn such that |Yn | ≤ |Y | and lim Yn = Y almost surely. n→∞ Then by dominated convergence theorem, we can show that for any A ∈ G, Z Z Z Yn XdP E(YX |G)dP = YXdP = lim n→∞ A A A Z = lim Yn E(X |G)dP n→∞ A Z = YE(X |G)dP, A which proves E(XY |G) = YE(X |G). 31 / 48 13. Given two σ-fields B ⊂ G, then E(E(X |B)|G) = E(E(X |G)|B) = E(X |B). Proof: Since B ⊂ G, we know that E(X |B) is G-measurable. Then by Exercise 4, we obtain E(E(X |B)|G) = E(X |B). For any A ∈ B ⊂ G, we have Z Z Z Z E(E(X |G)|B)dP = E(X |G)dP = XdP = E(X |B)dP, A A A A which implies E(E(X |G)|B) = E(X |B). 32 / 48 14. Let X and Z be such that (i) Z is G-measurable. (ii) X is independent of G. Suppose that E(h(X , Z )|) < ∞. Then, E(h(X , Z )|G) = E(h(X , z))|z=Z . Proof: Denote g(z) = E(h(X , z)) and µX (E) = P(X ∈ E) for E ∈ B(R). For any A ∈ G, we denote Y = 1A ; µY ,Z (F ) = P((Y , Z ) ∈ F ), F ∈ B(R2 ). 33 / 48 Then, Z Z E(h(X , Z )|G)dP = A h(X , Z )dP A = E(Yh(X , Z )) Z yh(x, z)µX (dx)µY ,Z (dy , dz) = 3 R Z = yg(z)µY ,Z (dy , dz) R2 = E(Yg(Z )) = E(1A g(Z )) Z = g(Z )dP ZA E(h(X , z))|z=Z dP. = A 34 / 48 Properties of stopping times 15. S ∨ T and S ∧ T are stopping times. Proof: For all t ≥ 0, we know that {S ≤ t} ∈ Ft and {T ≤ t} ∈ Ft . Hence, {S ∨ T ≤ t} = {S ≤ t} ∩ {T ≤ t} ∈ Ft , and {S ∧ T ≤ t} = {S ≤ t} ∪ {T ≤ t} ∈ Ft . 35 / 48 16. Given a stopping time T , FT = {A : A ∩ {T ≤ t} ∈ Ft , for all t ≥ 0 is a σ-field. Proof: It is obvious that Ω is in FT and FT is closed under intersection of countably infinite many subsets. We only need to show that FT is closed under complement. If A ∈ FT then A ∩ {T ≤ t} ∈ Ft , and hence Ac ∩{T ≤ t} = (A∪{T > t})c = ((A∩{T ≤ t})∪{T > t})c ∈ Ft . 36 / 48 17. S ≤ T ⇒ FS ⊂ FT . Proof: If A ∈ FS , then for any t ≥ 0 we have A ∩ {S ≤ t} ∈ Ft . Since S ≤ T , we also have {T ≤ t} ⊂ {S ≤ t}. Thus A ∩ {T ≤ t} = A ∩ {S ≤ t} ∩ {T ≤ t} ∈ Ft , which implies A ∈ FT . 37 / 48 18. Let {Xt , t ≥ 0} be a continuous and adapted process. The hitting time of a set A ⊂ R is defined by TA = inf{t ≥ 0 : Xt ∈ A}. Then, if A is open or closed, TA is a stopping time. Proof: If A is an open set, then for any t > 0, we have [ {TA < t} = {Xr ∈ A} ∈ Ft . r ∈Q+ ,r <t By Exercise 1 in Professor Nualart’s lecture notes, we can show that TA is a stopping time. 38 / 48 If A is a closed set, then for any t ≥ 0 we have \ {Xr ∈ / A} ∈ Ft . {TA ≥ t} = r ∈Q+ ,r <t Hence {TA < t} ∈ Ft . By Exercise 1 in Professor Nualart’s lecture notes, we can show that TA is a stopping time. 39 / 48 19. Let Xt be an adapted stochastic process with right-continuous paths and T < ∞ is a stopping time. Then the random variable XT (ω) = XT (ω) (ω) is FT -measurable. Proof: For any n ∈ N, define Tn = ∞ X i +1 1 i i+1 . 2n { 2n <T ≤ 2n } i=0 For any t ≥ 0, {Tn ≤ t} = [ i, i+1 ≤t 2n {T ≤ i +1 } ∈ Ft . 2n Then Tn is a stopping time for each n, and moreover, Tn ↓ T . 40 / 48 Then it suffices to show that for any open set A ⊂ R {XTn ∈ A} ∩ {Tn ≤ t} ∈ Ft , t ≥ 0. In fact, {XTn ∈ A} ∩ {Tn ≤ t} = ∪k ≤t 2n ({X k ∈ A} ∩ { 2n k k −1 < T ≤ n }) ∈ Ft . n 2 2 Since Tn ↓ T and the process X is right-continuous, we can let n go to ∞ and obtain {XT ∈ A} ∩ {T ≤ t} = lim {XTn ∈ A} ∩ {Tn ≤ t} ∈ Ft . n→∞ 41 / 48 Application to Brownian hitting times Let Bt be a Brownian motion. Fix a ∈ R and consider the hitting time τa = inf{t ≥ 0 : Bt = a}. Proposition If a < 0 < b, then P(τa < τb ) = b . b−a Proof: From (4) and (5), we can get τa < ∞ and τb < ∞ almost surely. Exercise 18 implies that τa and τb are two stopping times, and hence Exercise 15 implies that τa ∧ τb is also a stopping time. 42 / 48 For any t ≥ 0, τa ∧ τb ∧ t is a bounded stopping time. Then by the optional stopping theorem, we have E(Bτa ∧τb ∧t ) = E(B0 ) = 0. Since a ≤ Bτa ∧τb ∧t ≤ b, ∀t ≥ 0 and lim Bτa ∧τb ∧t = Bτa ∧τb t→∞ almost surely, by the dominated convergence theorem, we have E(Bτa ∧τb ) = E( lim Bτa ∧τb ∧t ) = Bτa ∧τb ∧t E(Bτa ∧τb ∧t ) = 0. t→∞ The random variable Bτa ∧τb takes only two values a and b and its distribution is given by ( a, with probability P(τa < τb ), Bτa ∧τb = b, with probability P(τa > τb ). 43 / 48 Hence, E(Bτa ∧τb ) = aP(τa < τb ) + bP(τa > τb ) = aP(τa < τb ) + b(1 − P(τa < τb )) = 0. Solving this equation for P(τa < τb ), we obtain P(τa < τb ) = b . b−a 44 / 48 Proposition Let T = inf{t ≥ 0 : Bt ∈ / (a, b)}, where a < 0 < b. Then E(T ) = −ab. Proof: In fact T = τa ∧ τb < ∞ almost surely. Using that Bt2 − t is a martingale, we get, by the optional stopping theorem, E(BT2 ∧t − (T ∧ t)) = 0, that is, E(BT2 ∧t ) = E(T ∧ t). (7) 45 / 48 Since T ∧ t ↑ T as t ↑ ∞, by the monotone convergence theorem we get E(T ) = E( lim (T ∧ t)) = lim E(T ∧ t). t→∞ t→∞ (8) Since BT2 ∧t is bounded for all t ≥ 0 and BT2 ∧t → BT almost surely as t → ∞, using the dominated convergence theorem and (7) and (8) we have E(BT2 ) = E( lim BT2 ∧t ) = lim E(BT2 ∧t ) = E(T ). t→∞ t→∞ From the previous Proposition, we get b b + b2 1 − = −ab. E(BT2 ) = a2 b−a b−a Therefore, E(T ) = −ab. 46 / 48 Additional exercises 1. Let Z be a Gaussian random variable with law N(0, σ 2 ). From the expression 1 E(eλZ ) = e 2 λ 2 σ2 , deduce the following formulas for the moments of Z : E(Z 2k ) = (2k )! 2k σ , k = 1, 2, . . . , 2k K ! E(Z 2k −1 ) = 0, k = 1, 2, . . . . 47 / 48 2. Let {Bt , t ∈ [0, 1]} be a standard Brownian motion. Show that Z 1 Bt dt ξ= 0 is a well-defined random variable. Calculate its first and second moments. 48 / 48
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