Skills
Assessments
East Renfrewshire
December 2016
Introduction
•An Introduction to Skills Assessments
•Key Data for East Renfrewshire
•Implications for Skills Investment
Planning
An Introduction to
Skills Assessments
What are Skills Assessments?
• A single, agreed evidence base on which to base future investment in
skills, built up from existing datasets
• Partnership between Skills Development Scotland, Highlands and
Islands Enterprise, Scottish Enterprise, the Scottish Funding Council
(SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development
Group
• Purpose:
• Support SFC, Regional Colleges, Strategic Bodies and College
Boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for
Academic Years 2017-2020
• Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and
businesses
• Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills
• Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence
Why are they important for skills
planning?
• They provide a high quality and consistent source of evidence about
economic and skills performance delivery at various spatial levels.
• They can be used to identify strengths and any issues or mismatches
arising, and so inform thinking about future planning and investment.
• They are accessible online to support all partners in their planning.
• They provide a core evidence base to support the Scottish Skills
Planning Model.
Scottish Skills Planning Model
What do they cover?
• Economic Performance, Profile of the Workforce, People and Skills,
Education and Training (MAs, Schools, FE and HE), Other
Economic Activity, Skills Mismatches and Forecasting
• Underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of 7 workbooks, containing
data on over 100 social and economic indicators
• With data at various spatial levels: Regions; City Region Deal; Local
Authority
• The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES,
UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and
partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE).
• The data matrix is found here:
https://www.skillsdevelopmentscotland.co.uk/what-wedo/partnerships/regional-skills-assessments/
• This slidepack provides a summary of the data for this area
Local Authority Overview
• Overall, East Renfrewshire has above
average levels of economic activity
and employment rates
• However, it is dependent to a large
extent on the wider regional economy
( i.e. Glasgow City) and the public
sector as a source of employment
• Pockets of persistent deprivation exist
(e.g. Barrhead and Neilston)
• The long term reduction of the
working age population raises
potential issues for sustained growth
Business Trends
Business numbers have
increased annually since 2011
Businesses in Growth Sectors
slightly below Scottish average
2,700
2,500
58%
54%
42%
46%
2,300
2,100
1,900
1,700
1,500
2010
2011
2012
East Renfrewshire
2013
2014
2015
Scotland Index
 190 new businesses in 2015 including:
Professional, Scientific and Technical (+55)
and Business Administration and Support
Services (+50)
 Business base characterised by micro and
small companies, 92% businesses have 0-9
employees (Scotland 88%)
 Relatively low business density of 270 (per
10,000 population) (Scottish average 313)
 Self-employment at highest rate in 10 years at
13.3% (compared to 10.8% nationally)
East Renfrewshire
Growth sector
Scotland
Other
 Concentrations of businesses in
Financial & Business Services (50%)
and Creative Industries (27%) (2015)
 However, only 18% of employment in
Growth Sectors (2014), reflective of the
micro and small businesses that form
the majority of the business base
Workforce Trends
Total employment in E.
Renfrewshire = 20,800 (1% of
Scottish total)
59% of workers are in higher
level occupations, well above
Scottish average of 42%
(2015)
21,000
20,500
20,000
19,500
19,000
18,500
18,000
17,500
2009
2010
2011
East Renfrewshire
2012
2013
2014
Scotland Index
7.8% increase over the year,
higher than Scotland as a whole
(3.2%)
Note: Data on total employment relates to 2014, having been prepared in
advance of 2015 BRES release.
 76% of employed population work
in private sector, compared to
77% nationally
 33% of employees work part-time,
up from 29% the previous year,
and above national average (26%)
 5.6% of people in employment are
in non-permanent jobs, compared
with 5.3% nationally
Population and Projections
Total population of 92,940 (2% of Forecast Population Growth
Scotland total) (2015)
2012-2037
East Renfrewshire
Population change 2005-2015:
East Renfrewshire
4%
Scotland
20%
Scotland
9%
18%
-4%
4%
0%
Total
Working Age
-11%
-1%
-2%
0-15
16-64
65+
 Those aged 65+ increased as share of
total population at a rate higher than
Scottish average (+20% v. +18%)
 Accompanied by a 20% drop in
number of 35-44 year olds
 Total population set to increase by
3,357 (+4% compared to +9%
nationally)
 Working age population set to
decline in East Renfrewshire by 11%
during this period
Employment and Unemployment
The employment rate has been
stable at 74% and slightly above
the national rate (73%) (2015)
 18% of employed residents work
in home LA
 Out-commuting to Glasgow City
dominates (52%)
The unemployment rate in East
Renfrewshire was below the
national average (4% v. 6%),
unemployment fell at a faster
rate than the national decline (0.4ppt) (2015)
96% of 16-19 year olds in East
Renfrewshire are participating, and
1% are not (compared with 4%
nationally) (2016)
Qualifications and Earnings
A higher proportion of working
age adults in E. Renfrewshire
(54%) hold SCQF qualifications
at levels 7-12 than in Scotland
(43%) (2015)
E. Renfrewshire’s workplace
earnings significantly below
national average, but resident’s
earnings much higher
£669
54%
43%
9%
5%
4%6%
9%
5%
14%
13%
Scottish average = £527
£501
19% 19%
East Renfrewshire
Workplace
East Renfrewshire
Scotland
Scotland
Residents
Education and Training
Schools
Modern Apprenticeships
MA starts decreased by 4% from
The secondary school roll in 2015
2014/15 to 295
was 7,783, 2.8% of the Scottish total 1% of national total in 2015/16
95% school leavers had a positive
Construction is the most popular
destination in 2015, compared to
framework group, 17% uptake
92% nationally
Heavily gender segregated - 100% male
75% achievement rate 2015/16
Further and Higher Education
In 2015/16, there were 64,630 There were over 69,000 students at the
enrolments at Glasgow City College, five HEIs in the region in 2014/15
Glasgow Clyde College and Glasgow
Kelvin College
 23% of Scotland’s total
 75% FE and 25% HE
Top three subjects:
 Full-time: Business, management &
admin, Art & Design and Care
 Part-time: Computing & ICT, Languages &
ESOL and Special Programmes
67% successful completion of FE
courses
Glasgow
Region
79%
16%
80%
Further Study
17%
Work
Other
Medicine and Engineering
University Graduates by Employment Status
2014/15
1%
College Leaver Destinations 2014/15
Scotland
Top three subjects:
 Business & Admin, Subjects Allied to
Scotland
61%
11%
16% 6% 5%
4%
3%
Glasgow
64%
11%
1%
15% 4% 5%
Full-time work
Part-time work
Further study only
Work and further study
Due to start work
Unemployed
HE/FE data is available at regional level only. Data relates to enrolments at FE and HE Institutions in East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire and Glasgow, not
residents unless otherwise stated. Data provided by SFC and HESA
Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to increase by 0.4% on average each year from 2016 to 2024,
an equivalent rate of 0.2% growth is expected for Scotland as a whole. This growth equates to
500 additional jobs in the region by 2024. The construction sector is expected to have growth of
300 jobs whilst administrative and support activities and professional, scientific and technical
activities are expected to experience growth of 200 jobs each over the forecast. However such
gains will be offset by falling employment within the public and education sectors both of which
are expected to fall by 200 over the forecast along with a decrease in the manufacturing sector
(100 jobs).
Forecast Demand for Jobs (2016-2024)
Total Employment Growth
East Renfrewshire Employment
% annual average change
Change in total jobs (‘000s), 2016-2024
East Renfrewshire
Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people).
The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job.
2024
2022
2018
2016
2014
2016-2024
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2002-2015
2020
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
Scotland
Construction
Administrative & support activities
Profess, scientific and technical acts
Arts, entertainment and recreation
Accommodation & food servs
Human health & social work
Real estate activities
Other service activities
Transportation and storage
Wholesale and retail trade
Information and communication
Mining
Electricity, gas, steam & air
Water supply & sewerage
Agriculture
Financial & insurance activities
Manufacturing
Education
Public administration and defence
Source: ONS / Oxford Economics
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
Jobs and Skills Changes (2)
Replacement demand will result in 12,700 openings within East Renfrewshire over the forecast
period. Expansion demand is expected to grow by 300 openings between 2016-2024. Together
with replacement demand, this will result in 13,000 openings over the period. Most openings
will be in professional and caring, leisure and other service occupations, driven by replacement
demand. The total requirement for workers in elementary and associate professional and
technical occupations is also expected to rise significantly over the 2016-24 period, driven
largely by replacement demand.
Forecast Demand for Jobs (2016-2024)
Managers, directors & senior officials
Professional occs
Associate professional & technical occs
Administrative & secretarial occs
Skilled trades occs
Caring, leisure & other service occs
Sales & customer service occs
Process, plant & machine operatives
Elementary occs
Total
Expansion demand
100
0
100
0
100
0
0
0
0
300
Notes:
1. table uses total requirement (people)
2. totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table
Source: Oxford Economics
Replacement Demand
800
2,200
1,500
1,300
500
2,200
1,300
1,200
1,700
12,700
Total Jobs Requirement
900
2,200
1,600
1,300
600
2,200
1,300
1,200
1,700
13,000
Implications for Skills
Investment Planning
East Renfrewshire: Key Implications (1)
.
Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics
 East Renfrewshire has had strong jobs growth since 2012, and although this
slowed in 2015 there were still 300 more jobs than the previous year at a time of
almost no jobs growth for Scotland as a whole. There are now 5% - and 1,000 –
more jobs in East Renfrewshire than in 2009.
 Jobs growth in 2015 has largely been in the public sector services, with increases
in education (+300), public administration & defence (+200) and health (+100).
There were also small increases in arts, entertainment & related, accommodation
& food services and in wholesale. At the same time there were losses in business
administration & support (-300) and retail (-300). There will always be a challenge
for East Renfrewshire to grow the private sector employment base given its
proximity to Glasgow and ease of commuting.
 Nonetheless, the business base in East Renfrewshire has been growing since
2011, and faster than the Scotland average, including growth in business and
professional services. Recent output growth has also been good, although output
per worker is lower, reflecting the lower value added local sector mix. East
Renfrewshire has benefited from the jobs growth in neighbouring Renfrewshire
and the economic recovery in Glasgow.
East Renfrewshire: Key Implications (2)
.
Skills
demand and supply
 The population has increased in the last 10 years, driven by those aged over 65. It
is forecast to grow by 4% to 2037, although this is half the Scotland average. The
working age population is expected to fall by 11%. More than half of the population
commutes to Glasgow, where many access better paid jobs than those available
locally.
 A third of residents in work are in professional roles, almost six in ten are in higher
level occupations. Average wages are well above average. However, demand
locally is highest in care, leisure and other service occupations and elementary
roles, driven by replacement demand in local employers. Local employer demand
will also be high in sales and customer services. It will be a challenge to meet this
local demand given the aspiration amongst the majority for higher skilled jobs.
 More than 60% go into Higher Education from school, well above the Scotland
average of 40%.
 The top MA frameworks by take-up largely reflect the local economy – construction,
administration & related, hospitality & tourism and retail & customer services.
East Renfrewshire: Key Implications (3)
.
Recommended Areas of Focus
Priorities for Renfrewshire include:
•
Meeting the skills needs of employers. here are important local sectors and
occupations, including health, sales and customer services. There will be strong
replacement demand in care, elementary and sales occupations. Local skills activity,
should continue to be focused on employer demand.
•
Creating a culture of employer investment. Employers continue to need to be
encouraged to invest and innovate, which includes investment in skills.
•
Continuing to grow the number of local jobs. Recent jobs growth has been good,
with growth in a number of sectors.
•
Increasing the quality of jobs. There remains reliance on public service jobs which
are forecast to decline and growing local higher value added services is important.
•
A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills in the region is
strongest at the upper and lower skills levels – professional and elementary
occupations, also care and sales. Progression needs engendered and supported.
•
A need for flexible provision. Non traditional employment is increasing, and this
means less conventional career paths, and movement between sectors. Skills
provision must be equally flexible, with work-based learning routes part of this.