T he Fut ure
of Dema nd
How will the demand
for fish evolve and what
are the implications of
anticipated changes?
05
CO NS U LTAT I O N D R A F T
05
T he F ut ure
of dema nd
How will the demand for fish evolve and what
are the implications of anticipated changes?
A B O UT T H I S D O C U M E NT
This briefing paper is part of a series aimed at providing accessible summaries of key issues
for the fish food system. Combining empirical data summaries with informed opinion and
perspective we hope that these papers will both inform and stimulate debate and dialogue
among stakeholders. Each brief was prepared by the Fishing for a Future secretariat, drawing
on opinions and analysis provided by an expert in the topic area; this paper was prepared with
support from Dr C. Crissman and Dr N. Trang.
Comments and critique are welcome and should be sent to [email protected].
CO NT E NT 05.01 C U R R E NT STAT E
Page
1
What is the current global and regional pattern of demand for
fisheries and aquaculture products?
05.02 T ren ds an d E x p ectat i ons
4
How is demand for fisheries and aquaculture products likely to
evolve? What are the key drivers of these trends?
05.03 KEY U N C E RTA I NT I E S
9
What are the key uncertainties concerning the current and likely
future trends in demand? How do these uncertainties differ by
geographic region and sector?
05.04 KEY I SS U E S
What are the key issues that need to be addressed to help meet
demand for fish products? Why is this?
05.05 R E F E R E N C E S A N D R E LAT E D R EA DI N G
10
12
C URRENT STAT E
Ref.
05.01
What is the current global and regional pattern
of demand for fisheries and aquaculture products?
Pro d uct i on an d Ut i l izat i on
R e lat iv e co nt r i b ut i o n o f aq uac u lt u r e a n d
c a pt u r e f i s h e r i e s t o f o o d f i s h co n s u m pt i o n
40
F i shery foo d
su p p ly ( kg/ C a p ita )
35
to 2010
30
Ca pture
Aq uaculture
25
20
15
10
5
Source: FAO (2012)
0
70
80
90
00
10
70
80
Worl d
90
00
10
C h i na
70
80
90
00
10
Worl d exclu d i ng C h i na
Ut i l izat ion
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
H uman consum pt i on ( mt )
114.3
117.3
119.7
123.6
128.3
130.8
non- foo d uses ( mt )
23.0
23.0
22.9
21.8
20.1
23.2
Po p ulat i on ( b i ll i ons)
6.6
6.7
6.7
6.8
6.9
7.0
p er ca p ita f i sh foo d su p p ly ( kg)
17.4
17.6
17.8
18.1
18.6
18.8
> ~
Stable non-food use
> Rising
per capita fish supply
(2.6% annual growth since 2000)
Source: FAO (2012). MT = million tonnes
KEY
POINT
G lobally, p ro d uct i on an d ut i l izat i on of f i sh cont i nues to grow.
Pro d uct i on grow th comes from i ncreases i n aq uaculture, mostly
from C h i na .
1
B R I E F I N G PA P E R 05 / T h e F uture of D e mand
F i sh V ersus other
A n i mal Source
F oo ds ( A S F )
G lobal S u p p ly of
A S F ( kg/Person)
most important animal
source food when these are broken
PO R K
down into major categories
O ffal
> 20%
Poultry
or more of total
animal protein for about 3 billion
B eef
people
M utton & Goat
> 16.6%
of global total animal
protein consumption
A S F Su p p ly ( kg/p erson)
> The
F ish
15
10
5
0
Eggs
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000 2005
Y EA R
Calculated from FAO
Food Balance Sheet Data
R eg i onal Var iat i on ( a funct i on
of w ealth an d p reference)
> China:
consumption per capita growing at 6%
a year during the last two decades to reach 31.9 kg in 2009
> Excluding
China the per capita world fish supply was
> Asia
consumes two-thirds of the world’s fish
15.4 kg in 2009
> East
and SE Asia consume nearly double
> The
the global average at 34.5 kg and 32.0 kg per
person respectively
Co nt r i b ut i o n o f F i s h t o a n i ma l
p r ot e i n S u p p ly ( av e r ag e 2007-2009)
F i sh p rote i ns
(G p er ca p ita p er day )
> 10 g
6 – 10 g
4 – 6 g
2 – 4 g
<2g
Contr i but i on of f i sh to
T otal asf Consum pt i on
> 20%
Source: FAO (2012)
2
lowest consuming region is Africa (9.1 kg/person in 2009)
Consum pt i on patterns
> High
value seafood (crustaceans, mollusks and high
> An important source of protein and calories for poor
value finfish): the majority of food fish consumed
and middle income populations
> Low
> Sub-Saharan
value seafood: an important category of overall
food fish consumption in developing countries
> Developing
Africa, India, China, and Southeast Asia
are the top four low-value finfish consumers
countries accounted for about 91% of
global low value finfish consumption in 2006
In d i rect foo d use
m i ll i on T
60
> Aquaculture – the
major consumer:
> 73% of fishmeal; > 88% of fish oil
50
> Indirect use volumes: stable for the last
decade, despite rapid aquaculture growth
40
> Since
2000 a 29% fall in fishmeal use per
kilogram of farmed fish produced; (26%
30
for fish oil)
20
> Fish
waste from processing has an
increasing share in aquaculture feeds
10
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
0
F ish M eal
Aq uaculture
Source: FAO (2012)
3
B R I E F I N G PA P E R 05 / T h e F uture of D e mand
T rends a nd
Expectat ions
Ref.
How is demand for fisheries and aquaculture products
likely to evolve? What are the key drivers of these trends?
1
U rban G row th
U rban e xtent c i rca 2000
1%
l i kel i hoo d to become urban by 2030
2
100%
Source: Seto K. C. et al. (2012)
Income G row th
100
P E R C E NTAG E CO NT R I B UT I O N
T O T H E WO R L D’S M IDD L E C LA SS
Others
Euro p ean U n ion
U n ite d States
Ja pan
Other A s ia
In d ia
C h i na
90
% of global m i d d le class consum pt ion
P O P U LAT I O N
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Source: OECD
0
2000
4
2030
05.02
60.8%
59.1%
64.9%
Euro p e
12.9%
A s ia
0.5%
10.5%
0.4%
A fr ica
0.2%
10.9%
9.1%
8.6%
4.5%
2.5%
Lat i n A mer ica
8.1%
North A mer ica
19.8%
5.1%
4.4%
2050
5.6%
0.7%
2000
7.0%
24.7%
1900
12.0%
20.8%
1800
57.4%
Po p ulat i on G row th
3
Ocean ia
Source: www.sustainablescale.org
1
2
3
f i sh d eman d grow th
-2% – 9%
10% – 17%
18% – 24%
25% – 35%
36% – 48%
Source: Cai (2011)
Develo p i ng countr i es w i ll lea d the worl d i n d eman d grow th for f i sh .
5
B R I E F I N G PA P E R 05 / T h e F uture of D e mand
Market p roject i ons
N om i nal Pro d uct Pr i ce Increases
(2013 – 2022)
Basel i ne scenar i os from global mo d els
> Real
fish prices predicted to rise by 1% per year for the
next decade
> Along
30%
25%
with beef, poultry and pork, fish is one of the few
commodity prices projected to rise in real terms
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
W ild
Farme d
T ra d e d
F ish
B eef
Poultry
Pork
M eat
Source: OECD-FAO Agriculture Outlook (2013-2022)
T ra d e
T echnology an d L i festyles
F I S H I S T HE WORL D’S MOST T RA D E D F OO D
COMMO D IT Y (OVER 38% O F PRO D U C T ION)
AN D T HI S I S LI KELY T O CONT INUE
> Improvements
consumer demands
> Consumers
> In
2010 developed countries imported 76% of total import
in food science technology will con-
tinue to create value-added products in response to
in developed countries will drive demand
for these diversified products, but the growing middle
value of fish and fishery products, almost half of that came
class in developing countries will become increasingly
from developing countries – a significant outflow
influential
> Trade costs are low; for about 20 Eurocents, a kilogram
> Expectations
of frozen seafood can be shipped between any two points in
but the sustainability of sources is also likely to become
the world
an expectation rather than a differentiator in several
for food safety are a given in all markets,
developed country markets
> Changes
G row th i n F i sh Consum pt i on (2013-2022)
fish, especially for some selected markets and species
25%
21%
20%
15%
10%
7%
5%
0%
Develo p e d
Countr i es
6
in lifestyle goals and/or environmental con-
cerns may lead to unpredictable changes in demand for
Develo p i ng Countr i es
7
8
KEY
UNC ERTAINT IES
Ref.
05.03
What are the key uncertainties concerning the current and likely
future trends in demand? How do these uncertainties differ by
geographic region and sector?
Income grow th
an d tra d e p ol i cy
What w i ll be C h i na’s a p p roach
to f i sh tra d e i n the future?
A m o n g t h e d r iv e r s, t h e p r oj ect e d
C h i na’s p o p u lat i o n g r owt h i s p r oj ect e d
r at e s o f eco n o m i c g r owt h a r e m ost
t o b e low, 6.4% p. a . b etw e e n 2013 a n d
u n c e rta i n
2022, b ut i n co m e g r owt h a n d u r ba n iza-
> The
recent financial crisis severely affected food
t i o n w i l l c r eat e co n d it i o n s f o r st r o n g
prices with consequent reduction in consumption
d e ma n d
and increased rates of poverty and food insecurity
> An
in developing countries.
China’s cities between 2013 and 2022
additional 138 million people will be added to
> Average
net income of urban dwellers was three times
H ow t r a d e p o l i cy d ev e lo ps
that of rural dwellers in 2011
i s a key q u e st i o n
> In
> Meeting
amount of fish compared to their rural counterparts
fish demand depends on a growing
2011 urban dwellers in China ate nearly triple the
supply of aquaculture products.
> However,
aquaculture development is not globally
I n 2022, OEC D- FAO e x p ect C h i na t o
distributed. For example, in 2011, the top-20 producers
p ro d u c e 63% o f t ota l aq uac u lt u r e
accounted for about 95% of globally farmed food fish.
p ro d u ct i o n .
> Seafood
trade policies are therefore important
instruments to support balancing global fish demand
W i l l h i g h e r p ro p o rt i o n s o f C h i na’ s
and supply. In particular, removing trade barriers will
p ro d u ct i o n b e us e d t o m e e t do m e st i c
have uncertain economic, political, social, and environ-
d e ma n d, a n d i f so, w hat w i l l b e t h e
mental consequences.
co n s eq u e n c e s f o r t h e r e st o f t h e
wo r l d?
9
B R I E F I N G PA P E R 05 / T h e F uture of D e mand
KEY
ISSUES
Ref.
What are the key issues that need to be addressed to help
meet demand for fish products? Why is this?
H ow shoul d the balance
bet w een fulf i ll i ng d eman d
for h i gh-value p ro d ucts an d
ensur i ng foo d secur ity for
the p oor an d low er i ncome
p o p ulat i on i n the d evelo p i ng
worl d be struck?
“ S u p e r ma r ket i sat i o n”
> Cold chain development is important in many
markets, including in developing countries:
> Consumers
have strongly preferred the conven-
ience and price advantages of supermarkets and
they are occupying an ever growing segment of
the retail food market in many developing countries
> The
development of the supermarket sector
has been a driver in cold chain development
> We
need to better understand how these
patterns of development are likely to evolve
in emerging markets and their effects on fish
prices and affordability.
T r a d e p o l i cy
> Trade
policy is important to maintaining balance/
equilibrium in global and regional fish markets:
> Global
fish and aquaculture supply is currently
uneven
> Well-functioning
markets ensure the stable
growth of global fish markets and benefits
consumers
> Poorly
developed policies in Sub-Saharan Africa
limits trade within the continent, inhibiting efficient
market development as trade moves into the illegal
and unrecorded sector.
R ising Pr ic es
> Rising
fish prices have important implications on fish
food access for the poor and vulnerable in developing
countries.
> Understanding
how prices will evolve in different
market segments and developing policies to ensure
adequate access to fish are key challenges.
10
05.04
11
B R I E F I N G PA P E R 05 / T h e F uture of D e mand
REF ERENC ES AND
RELAT ED REA DING
Ref.
Bostock, J., B. McAndrew, R. Richards, K. Jauncey,
Garcia, S. M., and R. J. R. Grainger. 2005. Gloom
T. Telfer, K. Lorenzen, D. Little, and others. 2010.
and doom? The future of marine capture fisheries.
Aquaculture: Global status and trends. Philosophical
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B
Transactions of the Royal Society B 365:2897–2912.
360:21–46.
Cai, J. 2011. Preliminary notes on forecasting country’s
Msangi S., E. Sobczynska, and N. Cenacchi. 2011.
future demand for fish. FAO Aquaculture Newsletter
Overview of global market trends for food fish: What
47:16-17.
can we expect for the future? Technical note. Interna-
tional Food Policy Research Institute. Washington DC:
Delgado, C. L., N. Wada, M. W. Rosegrant, S. Meijer,
IFPRI.
and M. Ahmed. 2003. Fish to 2020: Supply and Demand in Changing Global Markets. International Food
OECD-FAO. 2013. Agricultural Outlook 2013: High-
Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, DC,
lights. Geneva: OECD-FAO.
and the Worldfish Center, Penang.
Pauly, D., D. Belhabib, R. Blomeyer, and others. 2013.
FAO. 2012. The State of World Fisheries and Aqua-
China’s distant-water fisheries in the 21st century. Fish
culture 2012. FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Depart-
and Fisheries. Published online February 2013.
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Rome.
Seto, K. C., B. Güneralp, and L. R. Hutyra. 2012.
Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and
FAO. 2010. The State of World Fisheries and Aqua-
direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools.
culture 2010. FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Depart-
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
ment, Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN,
109:16083-16088.
Rome.
Welcomme, R., I. G. Cowx, D. Coates, C. Béné, S.
Funge-Smith, S., E. Lindebo, and D. Staples. 2005.
Funge-Smith, A. Halls, and K. Lorenzen. 2010. Inland
Asian fisheries today : The production and use of low
capture fisheries. Philosophical Transactions of the
value / trash fish from marine fisheries in the Asia-
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Westlund, L. Future prospects for fish and fish-
Garcia, S. M., and A. A. Rosenberg. 2010. Food
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security and marine capture fisheries: characteristics,
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trends, drivers and future perspectives. Philosophical
Circular. No. 972/5. Rome, FAO. 2005. 17pp.
Transactions of the Royal Society B 365:2869–2880.
12
05.05
B R I E F I N G PA P E R S
01 S usta i n i ng F i sh Stocks
What are the key levers for improving capture fisheries governance to
sustain the resource base – how do these change for different types of fishery?
02 S usta i n i ng aq uaculture grow th
How do we sustain the growth in aquaculture that is needed?
03 Co p i ng w ith cl i mate change
How can we climate proof our fish production systems?
04 T he w ealth to w elfare cont i nuum
What economic roles are wild capture fisheries best placed to play and
under what circumstances?
05 T he future of d eman d
How will the demand for fish evolve and what are the implications of
anticipated changes?
06 M eet i ng N ee ds
How can the fish food system best meet the needs of poor consumers to
address food and nutrition security challenges?
A L L B R I E F I N G PA P E R S A R E AVA I LA B L E F O R D OW N LOA D AT
WWW. F I S H i ng F UT U R E .O R G
Please sen d all comments to b p. fee d back@ f i sh i ngfuture .org
PDF
F i sher i es an d Aq uaculture
i n the 21st C entury:
A n i n it iat ive for G lobal Act i on
In it iat ive S ecretar iat:
Dr. Stephen J. Hall
WorldFish, Penang, Malaysia
Email: [email protected]
Andreas Schaffer
The Earth Observatory of Singapore, Singapore
Email: [email protected]
WWW. F I S H I N G F UT U R E .O R G
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