On the Eight Domains
of Evidence Based
Policy Design
Ricardo Paes de Barros - SAE
Rio de Janeiro, fevereiro de 2013.
Evidence Based Policy Design
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Recognizing progress
Identifying the determinants of progress
Identifying failures
Early detection of new trends
Ex-ante evaluation
Ex-post impact evaluation
Learning from others (meta-analysis)
Identifying programs with no impact
1. On the Importance of
Recognizing Progress
Evolution of extreme poverty rate in Brazil: 1990-2009
25
22.6 22.9
Percentage of the population below
the extreme poverty line
23
21
Cardoso
Lula
22.1
Real Plan
19
17.3
17.7 17.8
16.8
17.4
17.5
17.4
17
16.5
15.1
15
13.3
13
10.8
11
Millennium Development Goal for 2015
10.3
8.8
9
8.4
7
5
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2. On the Importance
of Identifying the
Determinants of Progress
Basic Identity
per capita
income
Non labor income
per adult
Labor income per
adult working
y  a.o  u.w
Percentage of
adults
Percentage of
adults working
Table 1: Characteristics of the income growth of the 20% poorest:
Brasil, 2003-2009
Variation
Indicator
2003
2009
62
Absolut
(R$/month)
Relative
(%)
Annual growth
rate (%)
100
39
63
8,4
55,0
58,0
3,0
5,5
0,9
Non work-related income per adult (R$/month)
25
49
25
100
12,3
Work-related income per adult (R$/month)
87
123
35
40
5,8
Percentage of the family income originated from
work (%)
78,0
71,0
-7,0
-9,0
.....
Income per capita if only work-related income
had grown (R$/month)
.....
81*
19
31
4,7
Income per capita (R$/month)
Percentage of adults (%)
Source: Estimates obtained from the household survey Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD) in 2003 and 2009.
Note: * Income per capita if w ork-related income w ere as of 2009, all else constant, in 2003 values.
3. On the Importance of
Recognizing Failure
Extreme poverty by age after transfers:
Brazil, 2009
20
Percentage of the population below the
extreme poverty line
18
16
14
12
10
Average
8
6
4
2
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Age (years)
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Evolution of the percentage of girls 15 to 17 years old already
mothers or married: Brazil, 1992-2009
10
Percentage of girls 15 to 17 years old
9
8
7
7
7
6
5
Reduction to 1/2 in 25 years
4
Reduction to 1/3 in 25 years
3
2
1
0
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
4. On the Importance of
Early Detection of New Trends
Evolution of the Brazilian Income Distribution:
1999 and 2009
1,4
Middle class
begins (R$250)
1,3
1,2
1,1
Population share (%)
1,0
15,3%
0,9
0,8
0,7
0,6
0,5
0,4
Reduction
in poverty
0,3
0,2
0,1
0,0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500
Per capita family income (R$ per month)
Evolution of the percentage of low wage (up to two minimum wages) workers
among formal employees
65
60
55
Percentage of formal employees (%)
50
28 percentage
points
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
5. On the Importance of
Ex-Ante Evaluations
6. On the Importance of
Ex-Post Impact Evaluations
7. The Importance of Learning
from the Experience of Others
(meta-analysis)
8. On the Importance of
Identifying Programs
with no Impact
Evolution of extreme poverty and adult illiteracy rate:
Brazil, 1977-2009
26
24
Extreme poverty
22
20
18
16
(%)
Adult illiteracy rate
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009